Saddam as the new Arab spokesman? His take on the Lebanon War- Beirut Redux

Middle East News Analysis

Saddam Revived:

He is back with a new line!!! But what is his angle?
Saddam is now in the same boat as the United States, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Gulf states- and Israel!! And he speaks for all of the above. Saddam has stated to the Saudi-owned and London-based daily Ashaq Alawsat, through his lawyer, if the lawyer can be believed, that Syria should break up its alliance with Iran, that Iran is the enemy of Arabs and seeks to destroy them. Saddam also said, as qouted in Alarabiya yesterday, that, get this, Tehran is to blame for the current violence in the Middle East. He actually regrets all the violence, much of which he helped unleash over the years, with the Arab regimes cheering in the galleries!

For the first time since the good old days when the Persian Gulf States and Jordan were supporting him wholeheartedly in the war against Iran and in his domestic genocide, in the days just before he turned his unwanted attentions south, Saddam has now found common ground with their governments.

Perhaps he sees himself as a palatable alternative to the elected Iraqi government- he is known to have had a few delusions in the past. But then so had others in his region, and many of them fed his delusions in the past.
Perhaps it is a defense ploy. He is, after all, under the threat of a death sentence and execution by a government composed of his former Shi'a and Kurdish victims.

Lebanon: a flawed strategy?

Events in Lebanon have clearly split the Arab world again. I mean the people on the street, not the Arab governments. To the extent that Al-Arabiya TV (Saudi-owned), which usually has lively forums for comments on news items and the views expressed, yesterday sharply curtailed the forums, in some cases stopping them completely.

There is one serious problem now with the Israeli strategy in Lebanon. It clearly hopes to continue the fighting in order to severely weaken Hizballah and destroy its arsenal, and many Western and Arab governments clearly hope so as well. And, oddly, so does Saddam Hussein now (who would have thunk it). History, of course, tells us that a war cannot be won by airpower and offshore bombing alone. Besides, even a severely weakened Hizballah will probably remain the strongest military force in Lebanon. Unless amnesia sets in and substantial foreign forces are reintroduced, and that would probably be a foolish thing to do.

The problem with the current Israeli strategy is that it cannot last, for it could backfire if the war lasts too long, perhaps beyond the next two weeks. In that case, even supportive Arab governments (Egypt, Jordan, the Gulf States) will be forced by shifting public opinion to change their stands. There are already murmurs of discontent in some of the media, especially in the Gulf. New voices are being raised, some of them Islamist Fundamentalists, not all of them Shi'as, challenging the initial reactions. If we already hear these voices of dissent in a media largely controlled by the Arab regimes and their elite supporters, what is it really like on the streets of Arabia?

Of course, in the end it does not really matter what these states think. It makes no difference where it matters, on the ground. There are three real players in the Middle East now: America, Israel, and Iran, not necessarily in that order. Unfortunately most Arab rulers are usually mere observers to events in their own region- but they can make the appropriate noises.

Cheers
Mohammed