Lebanese Nostradamus:
Al-Manar, the Hizbullah television network and web site, has an interesting, and of course self-serving, take on the series of events in Lebanon these past two years- especially the political assassinations. The al-Manar speculations revolve around Sameer G'ag'a (J'aj'a), warlord of the Lebanese Forces militias and an ally of the March 14 pro-cabinet forces. The web site notes that Mr. G'ag'a seems to have supernatural powers for predicting events:
It notes that he predicted early in 2006 that about 15,000 foreign forces will enter Lebanon. And boom, within months Israel invaded and fifteen thousand international forces were stationed in Lebanon. (I have not verified this one yet)
It notes that G'ag'a predicted, after the Shi'a ministers and their allies withdrew from the cabinet, that ministers will be assassinated (he actually did say that, I mentioned it here). Sure enough, soon young Pierre Gemayel was assassinated. Al-Manar notes that a Maronite Christian legislator, S. Farangieh, has revealed that Tony 'Obied, a leader in the Lebanese Forces of G'ag'a was behind the killing.
It notes that he predicted to a French magazine attacks on UNIFIL forces in Lebanon. And sure enough, soon they came under attack.
It notes that he predicted in 2007 that members of parliament from a certain Maronite district will become targets. Sure enough, a member was killed within a short time after that.
Al-Manar notes that the same Mr Sameer G'ag'a is now predicting an assassination attempt against Mr. Fouad Saniora, prime minister of the rump cabinet. Ohoh....
So, do you really think there is something to this Hizbullah insinuation/accusation? I am not sure, I find Lebanon confusing and complex even as I find the Lebanese simple and predictable.
The Lebanese Forces of Mr. G'ag'a, modeled after the pre-war European Fascist militias, was implicated in the Sabra and Shatila massacres of perhaps over 1,000 Palestinians in the refugee camps in 1982.
Mr. G'ag'a is scheduled to visit Washington, DC, soon for discussions. He follows in the footsteps of other warlords who have already made the pilgrimage.
So, does this mean that if you are a Lebanese you have to choose between a side dominated by Shi'a fundamentalists allied with Iran and a side dominated by quasi-Fascists suspected of mass genocide allied with Saudi Arabia?
Hearts and Minds:
Rivalry for hearts and minds of Americans has been going on for some time between Arabs and Israelis. Mostly it has been a no contest situation. American perceptions of the Judio-Christian heritage is one main factor. Another, perhaps as important a factor, is the repulsive nature of many Arab governments: either tribal absolute monarchies or one-party military police states- all kleptocracies to some degree. That is not to say that Israeli politicians are clean: they have gone a long way down in the Holy Land since the days of their founders- greed is now entrenched on both sides of the divide, especially since the Likud and its heirs became dominant.
Still, there is an interesting debate going on in some American and Arab media about the roles of Israel and Saudi Arabia (the money-bags and new center of power of the Arab world), or is it Jews and Wahhabis as some in US media call them, in U. S. Academia:
A Frong Page article extensively covers the fact that Prince al-Waleed Bin Tala has donated $ 20 million to Gerorgetown University in 2005, in exchange for naming a center after him: the Prince al-Waleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding- I know, it is a mouthful. The Front Page report lists claims of ties between the Center's director and what it hints are apologists and friends of Islamic extremism.
I find the name of the "Center" interesting. How can there be any Muslim-Christian understanding without bringing in the Jews? They are the elephant, nay the gorilla if you will, in the room- can't be ignored. How can one discuss Christian or Muslim (Moslem) doctrine without referring to 'the source'? Maybe they wanted to keep the name short.
Besides, Georgetown is largely secular now, no? By restricting the Center to Muslim-Christian relations, it denies the secular and multi-faith nature of American society- at least as it is potentially possible to be.
Perhaps the center should be renamed The Prince al-Waleed Bin Talal Center for Understanding Islam- well, a tribal absolute monarchy version of Islam.
On the other hand, the Saudi-owned daily al-hayat has published (Feb. 20) a column titled "American Schools and Universities or Israeli Kubutzim?" The author starts by distinguishing between Jews and Zionists- then asserts that it is natural for Jews who are spread within sensitive and influential sectors across the world to form a normal medium for the spread of Zionism and the support of that movement and Israel. He does note that other, non-Jewish, groups are sometimes more pro-Israeli than some Jewish groups. Those include Marxists and left-wingers (this is debatable, at least), extreme right wingers (mostly true), as well as fundamentalists (non-Islamic variety, of course).
The author notes that the Zionist Lobby has been worried lately, and has redoubled its efforts to keep and spread its influence in American institutions, especially universities and colleges. Now the efforts have spread to high schools where students are picked for special courses and "fact-finding" visits to Israel. The author quotes "The Washington Report" as a source.
The Caliph of Egypt:
Speaking o faith and all that, interesting news from Egypt. A leading Salafi shaikh there has issued a fatwa that it is OK for president Mubarak to pass on power to his son Gamal. He notes that Mu'awiyya, the first Umayyad monarch (he called himself Khalifa) appointed his son as heir and nobody objected. Of course nobody objected: nobody wanted their heads chopped off. Besides, this is not exactly true, al-Hassan, son of Ali, objected because Mu'awiyya had promised not to make it a hereditary rule. But al-Hassan was poisoned- guess by whom. His brother al-Hussein and others rebelled and they were massacred at Karbalaa in today's Iraq. Abdullah ibn al-Zubeir rebelled at Mecca and he was beseiged and killed along with many others...
In any case, at some point this man even compares the president of Egypt to the early four Caliphs, as most of you heathen kaffirs call them, the Rightly Guided Four Khalifas: Abu Bakr, Omar, Othman, and Ali.
The shaikh refers to what he and other salafis call 'Islamic Shari'a rules' that call for blind obedience to the ruler, no matter how he came to power, no matter how opperssive he is, provided he continues building houses of worship.Perhaps the Salafis of Egypt see an opening to break the Moslem Brotherhood's monoploy of fun-dementa-list opposition.
Cheers
Mohammed
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Yoda, Yoda...can Jumblatt spare a dime?
Aafaq and Al-jazeera quote the chief of Iran's Revolutionary Guards that soon "Israel will be destroyed at the hands of Hizbullah". This was in the context of a letter of condolences sent by General Ja'afari to Hassan Nassrallah after the death of Imad Mughniya. The report did not mention what Mr. Ja'afari was smoking or snorting when he wrote the letter.
In Saudi Arabia, Shi’a Isma’ilia residents of a southern province (Najran) are protesting what they regard as a deliberate government policy to settle Sunni tribesmen in their region and dilute their majority. They have sent a letter of protest to the prince/potentate who governs the province objecting to plans to settle a Sunni tribe from Yemen. Apparently there had been previous clashes between the Shi’a residents and the police in 2000 about the issue of repopulation. The native residents claim that the newcomers get land and services they never got from the Saudi government. Perhaps they don't realize they are considered heretics?
Playing around with demographics for political ends is a common prctice in some Arab countries. It was done on a large scale in Ba'athist Iraq in the Kurdish regions of the north and the Shi'a regions of the south. It was also done in some Gulf states where the rulers imported what they considered 'pliable' tribes and naturalized them in order to offset city folks who are not so deferential to potentates. Recently the ruling elites of Bahrain have been accused by opposition groups of naturalizing non-resident tribal men as well as Sunnis from Jordan and Iraq in order to dilute the huge Shi'a majority.
It turns out that the path to a long-term US-Iraqi security arrangement may not be as smooth as originally thought by some. Elaph reports (Feb. 15), quoting an aide to Marji'iyya, that Ayatollah Ali Sistani has warned against rushing into signing a long-term strategic pact with the United States. He has called for further studies by Iraqi experts to make certain there are no loopholes in the proposed treaty. Meetings to negotiate the treaty between Iraqi and American officials are scheduled to start on February 27.
The Arab Parliament again- sans Strasbourg:
A meeting in Libya is expected to put the final touches on a the constitution for an "Arab Parliament". That is nice, since some Arab states have no constitutions, and most of those that have them might as well use them as the infidel kaffirs use other kinds of thin paper. Whatever is concluded in Libya will be discussed by a meeting of the Provisional Arab Parliament next month, then it will be put to the Arab Summit in Damascus this Spring. The upcoming Summit is widely expected to be boycotted by at least one King Abdullah, one President Mubarak, as well as one Hassan Nassrallah. Perhaps they will boycott the meeting because it will not be held at Strasbourg. The new 'parliament', whenever it materializes, will be headquartered in Damsacus- not exactly Strasbourg, but it could have been worse, at least it is not in San'a or Riyadh.
Meanwhile, the president of the said Provisional Arab Parliament met in Tunis with Tunisian officials and discussed the best ways to improve Arab parliamentary work, seriously. Well, perhaps it is a good start to have parliaments in some of these countries. Then a next step will involve having elections- a good second step. The next step would be elections that are clean and free- preferably with Jimmy Carter around to verify. Then....perhaps some teeth?
A 95 year old Moroccan man on a wheel chair was sentenced three months ago to three years in prison- for insulting the king. I still am not sure that one can actually honestly insult an Arab leader, and how. But anyway, the old man died yesterday, still aged 95, cheating His Majesty out of 33 months of his sentence.
I was initially surprised to see the warm and sometimes excited welcome Mr. Bush got in Africa. But then, again, the man did substantially increase Aids funds, something that the continent needed badly. Mr. Bush has done good by Africa, more than for other regions, like the Middle East or South America. I recall that Bill Clinton took his farewell tour mainly in Asia. That was a wise decision, since he turned a blind eye to the massacre of up to one million people in Rwanda- that was under his watch. Of course Mr, Bush hasn't exactly stopped the genocide in Darfur.
Cheers
Mohammed
Friday, February 15, 2008
"When someone kills ya, you know that they've committed genocide against ya"
George W. Bush: Jan. 2008
A Game of Chickens and Lebanese Cantons:
Two parallel events were held in Beirut today.
One was a political rally for the heirs of the late Rafiq Hariri, and it was a political statement by the pro-rump-cabinet, since the man has been dead for three years. After all, Mr. Hariri was close to the Saudi royals, and the Wahhabis do not cotton up to commemorating the dead- in fact they frown on it. Come to think of it, they frown on many things most of the time.
The other event, in Southern Beirut, was a real funeral for Imad Mughniyah, Hizbollah operative, strategist, and wanted for terrorism across Europe and North America, and a couple of other places. The funeral was held in the same area that witnessed the massive bombings and shellings during the War of 2006, the bombfest that Secretary of State Rice callously called the “birth pangs” of the “New” Middle East.
During the funral, Hizbullah leader Hassan Nassrallah promised retaliation against Israel. What surprised me was when a State Department spokesman appeared on Fox News to dismiss the threat, saying that Hizbullah will “bluster” for a while. The sad thing is: Hizbullah never just “blusters”. To bluster means to speak loudly and noisily, which Nassrallah did today, but it also implies an element of bluffing, which he does not do- in this respect he is a very un-Arab leader.
Mr. Hariri, fils, for his part, blasted Syria, which means he was not original this time either. A good question: how did they get through Syrian security? Who got paid what?
The game of chicken continues in Beirut. Normally the party with more fire in its belly wins, in this case Hizbullah- the other side blinks. But this time around there are too many things at stake for various regional and international parties. Mr. Hariri and Mr. Saniora will not blink soon, even if they want to: their foreign sponsors (USA and Saudi Arabia) have placed matchsticks to hold their eyelids wide open. Hizbullah's sponsors (mainly Iran), meanwhile, keep the supply lines open. Unless this is resolved, it looks like a cantonization of Lebanon will be in effect. They always did say that Lebanon was the Switzerland of the East- now she will have the cantons to prove it.
In Iraq, the cantankerous parliament has finally acted on several measures to bring the country closer together, at least nominally. Meanwhile, the long-delayed municipal elections have finally been scheduled for October, under UN supervision- no word yet on whether Jimmy Carter will be there.
Iran has delayed a scheduled meeting with US officials over Iraq. No reason given.
Saint Valentine's Day Massacre:
In Saudi Arabia, the War on Valentine's Day has intensified. No less, and no more, a person than the head of the Society for the Spread of Virtue and Prevention of Vice (sounds like a Republican, as in GOP, campaign slogan, nicht war?) stressed that they will be vigilant and will confiscate any presents or symbols related to this “pagan festival”. Pagan indeed! Well, don’t expect any toga parties in Riyadh anytime soon….not unless you reside in one of them sumptuous palaces over there, those uniquely Arabian frat houses on the Riyadh or Jeddah Greek Row.
In relatievly liberal Kuwait, a Salafi member of the National Assembly tried to get a measure passed banning Valentine's celebrations. But, Kuwait being what it is, everybody ignored the shaggy honorable pendejo.
Bush the Censor (forget Cato):
Speaking of Saudi Arabia, President Bush yesterday gave its rulers a Valentine’s Day present that is decidedly double-edged. He put restrictions on financial and other dealings of several Syrian officials whom he said were involved in disrupting the stability of Iraq and, get this, “profiting from embezzling (or abusing) public funds” in Syria. At least this was the summary Arabic translation. About that last part, about “embezzling of abusing” public funds in Syria: is this supposed to be a warning shot for the royal Saudi allies to cease and desist from abusing public funds- just in case the had any ideas?
There is certainly abuse of public funds in Syria- there are all kinds of abuses in Syria: but how often can one overlook the pot and call the kettle “black”. And get away with it.
Cheers & Happy Valentine's...
Mohammed
George W. Bush: Jan. 2008
A Game of Chickens and Lebanese Cantons:
Two parallel events were held in Beirut today.
One was a political rally for the heirs of the late Rafiq Hariri, and it was a political statement by the pro-rump-cabinet, since the man has been dead for three years. After all, Mr. Hariri was close to the Saudi royals, and the Wahhabis do not cotton up to commemorating the dead- in fact they frown on it. Come to think of it, they frown on many things most of the time.
The other event, in Southern Beirut, was a real funeral for Imad Mughniyah, Hizbollah operative, strategist, and wanted for terrorism across Europe and North America, and a couple of other places. The funeral was held in the same area that witnessed the massive bombings and shellings during the War of 2006, the bombfest that Secretary of State Rice callously called the “birth pangs” of the “New” Middle East.
During the funral, Hizbullah leader Hassan Nassrallah promised retaliation against Israel. What surprised me was when a State Department spokesman appeared on Fox News to dismiss the threat, saying that Hizbullah will “bluster” for a while. The sad thing is: Hizbullah never just “blusters”. To bluster means to speak loudly and noisily, which Nassrallah did today, but it also implies an element of bluffing, which he does not do- in this respect he is a very un-Arab leader.
Mr. Hariri, fils, for his part, blasted Syria, which means he was not original this time either. A good question: how did they get through Syrian security? Who got paid what?
The game of chicken continues in Beirut. Normally the party with more fire in its belly wins, in this case Hizbullah- the other side blinks. But this time around there are too many things at stake for various regional and international parties. Mr. Hariri and Mr. Saniora will not blink soon, even if they want to: their foreign sponsors (USA and Saudi Arabia) have placed matchsticks to hold their eyelids wide open. Hizbullah's sponsors (mainly Iran), meanwhile, keep the supply lines open. Unless this is resolved, it looks like a cantonization of Lebanon will be in effect. They always did say that Lebanon was the Switzerland of the East- now she will have the cantons to prove it.
In Iraq, the cantankerous parliament has finally acted on several measures to bring the country closer together, at least nominally. Meanwhile, the long-delayed municipal elections have finally been scheduled for October, under UN supervision- no word yet on whether Jimmy Carter will be there.
Iran has delayed a scheduled meeting with US officials over Iraq. No reason given.
Saint Valentine's Day Massacre:
In Saudi Arabia, the War on Valentine's Day has intensified. No less, and no more, a person than the head of the Society for the Spread of Virtue and Prevention of Vice (sounds like a Republican, as in GOP, campaign slogan, nicht war?) stressed that they will be vigilant and will confiscate any presents or symbols related to this “pagan festival”. Pagan indeed! Well, don’t expect any toga parties in Riyadh anytime soon….not unless you reside in one of them sumptuous palaces over there, those uniquely Arabian frat houses on the Riyadh or Jeddah Greek Row.
In relatievly liberal Kuwait, a Salafi member of the National Assembly tried to get a measure passed banning Valentine's celebrations. But, Kuwait being what it is, everybody ignored the shaggy honorable pendejo.
Bush the Censor (forget Cato):
Speaking of Saudi Arabia, President Bush yesterday gave its rulers a Valentine’s Day present that is decidedly double-edged. He put restrictions on financial and other dealings of several Syrian officials whom he said were involved in disrupting the stability of Iraq and, get this, “profiting from embezzling (or abusing) public funds” in Syria. At least this was the summary Arabic translation. About that last part, about “embezzling of abusing” public funds in Syria: is this supposed to be a warning shot for the royal Saudi allies to cease and desist from abusing public funds- just in case the had any ideas?
There is certainly abuse of public funds in Syria- there are all kinds of abuses in Syria: but how often can one overlook the pot and call the kettle “black”. And get away with it.
Cheers & Happy Valentine's...
Mohammed
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
I am the Sheik of Araby
Your love belongs to me
At night when you're asleep
Into your tent I will creep
The starrs that shine above
Will light our way to love
You rule this world with me
I am the Sheik of Araby
(Rudolph Valentino's "The Sheik")
'Imad Mughniyah was killed in Damascus, in that uniquely modern Lebanese way of settling scores- a car bomb. Except this time there were outsiders involved, and he was killed in a tightly-controlled Arab police state. Mughniyah was a Hizbollah operative and strategist, and he was all over the place during the 1980s, but he seemed to have faded from the public scene in recent years. He had been accused of involvement in various acts of sabotage and terrorism: from the bombings against US and French military bases in Beirut (1983) to the bombings of US Embassy and other installations in Kuwait City, to various hijackings. Some probably far-fetched reports have even linked him, along with al-Qaeda, to the al-Khubar bombings in Saudi Arabia during the 1990s.
In many ways, as a young man he summarized the Arab East as it was durng the 1980s: the beginnings of Shi'a stirrings in the region, especially in Lebanon where they had a plurality but were marginalized economically and politically. Politically, they were largely "owned" by a few Shi'a feudal families. The 1980s, after the ill-advised Israeli invasion of Lebanon and the ourtbreak o the Iran-Iraq War, saw the genesis of Hizbullah as we know it and the growth of the older Amal Shi'a organization. The ill-advised US military incursion in Beirut under Reagan provided a new impetus for Hizbullah recruiters and gave its planners a tempting target, which they hit.
The US mission in Beirut was in some ways a mini-Vietnam, it represented the same type of folly: placing small US military units in precarious positions in the middle of a hostile population.
The method of Mughniyah's death is not strange, not for a Lebanese fighter or even politician, but the venue is. Inter-Lebanese scores are usually settled in-country, which indicates that some foreign power(s) was behind the operation. Besides, he had been more active outside Lebanon and was wanted by several foreign countries, including being on the FBI most-wanted list. Hizbullah has already blamed the Israelis, as have other Arab sources and Iran, which means that if a foreign power was behind it, the Israellis were involved.
The most ridiculous take on him, outside Lebanon, tended to be in conservative US media. The most absurd was mentioned in Wikipedia as follows:
"Some foreign policy experts, including conservative Michael Ledeen, have claimed that Mughniyah had a strong working relationship with Al Qaeda and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi especially in recent years with the invasion of iraq."
Some clever "experts"!: given the Salafi hatred of Shi'as, a Hizbullah-alQaeda alliance would be like a Nazi-Jewish marriage, impossible for anyone with any sense to perceive...except perhaps for the "experts" mentioned above. These are the same people who tried to tie Saddam Hussein to al-Qaeda.
Tomorrow is Valentine's Day in many places- ok, ok, I forgot that it is banned is Saudi Arabia. Anyway, tomorrow the Lebanese cabinet and its allies were scheduled to commemorate the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. They had planned a huge demonstration in support of the cabinet. So far, most Lebanese leaders, including Mr. Saniora, have condemned the killing of Mughniyah and made the appropriate noises for such an occasion. This attitude from its Lebanese allies will not please the Bush administration: he was accuseed of involvement in killing many US citizens abroad and was wanted in the country.
Some politicians are even calling for a joint commemoration of both Mughniyah and Hariri. Odd, but then that is Lebanon and it is Valentine's Day in many places (except Riyadh, and I am not sure about Qom).
We may see a Lebanese joint political and mourning potluck tomorrow, but it won't last.
Cheers
Mohammed
Your love belongs to me
At night when you're asleep
Into your tent I will creep
The starrs that shine above
Will light our way to love
You rule this world with me
I am the Sheik of Araby
(Rudolph Valentino's "The Sheik")
'Imad Mughniyah was killed in Damascus, in that uniquely modern Lebanese way of settling scores- a car bomb. Except this time there were outsiders involved, and he was killed in a tightly-controlled Arab police state. Mughniyah was a Hizbollah operative and strategist, and he was all over the place during the 1980s, but he seemed to have faded from the public scene in recent years. He had been accused of involvement in various acts of sabotage and terrorism: from the bombings against US and French military bases in Beirut (1983) to the bombings of US Embassy and other installations in Kuwait City, to various hijackings. Some probably far-fetched reports have even linked him, along with al-Qaeda, to the al-Khubar bombings in Saudi Arabia during the 1990s.
In many ways, as a young man he summarized the Arab East as it was durng the 1980s: the beginnings of Shi'a stirrings in the region, especially in Lebanon where they had a plurality but were marginalized economically and politically. Politically, they were largely "owned" by a few Shi'a feudal families. The 1980s, after the ill-advised Israeli invasion of Lebanon and the ourtbreak o the Iran-Iraq War, saw the genesis of Hizbullah as we know it and the growth of the older Amal Shi'a organization. The ill-advised US military incursion in Beirut under Reagan provided a new impetus for Hizbullah recruiters and gave its planners a tempting target, which they hit.
The US mission in Beirut was in some ways a mini-Vietnam, it represented the same type of folly: placing small US military units in precarious positions in the middle of a hostile population.
The method of Mughniyah's death is not strange, not for a Lebanese fighter or even politician, but the venue is. Inter-Lebanese scores are usually settled in-country, which indicates that some foreign power(s) was behind the operation. Besides, he had been more active outside Lebanon and was wanted by several foreign countries, including being on the FBI most-wanted list. Hizbullah has already blamed the Israelis, as have other Arab sources and Iran, which means that if a foreign power was behind it, the Israellis were involved.
The most ridiculous take on him, outside Lebanon, tended to be in conservative US media. The most absurd was mentioned in Wikipedia as follows:
"Some foreign policy experts, including conservative Michael Ledeen, have claimed that Mughniyah had a strong working relationship with Al Qaeda and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi especially in recent years with the invasion of iraq."
Some clever "experts"!: given the Salafi hatred of Shi'as, a Hizbullah-alQaeda alliance would be like a Nazi-Jewish marriage, impossible for anyone with any sense to perceive...except perhaps for the "experts" mentioned above. These are the same people who tried to tie Saddam Hussein to al-Qaeda.
Tomorrow is Valentine's Day in many places- ok, ok, I forgot that it is banned is Saudi Arabia. Anyway, tomorrow the Lebanese cabinet and its allies were scheduled to commemorate the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. They had planned a huge demonstration in support of the cabinet. So far, most Lebanese leaders, including Mr. Saniora, have condemned the killing of Mughniyah and made the appropriate noises for such an occasion. This attitude from its Lebanese allies will not please the Bush administration: he was accuseed of involvement in killing many US citizens abroad and was wanted in the country.
Some politicians are even calling for a joint commemoration of both Mughniyah and Hariri. Odd, but then that is Lebanon and it is Valentine's Day in many places (except Riyadh, and I am not sure about Qom).
We may see a Lebanese joint political and mourning potluck tomorrow, but it won't last.
Cheers
Mohammed
Thursday, February 07, 2008
McCain’s Folly:
Senator McCain has called for a long-term US presence in Iraq. This is hopefully just a political ploy as the primaries head into the conservative Western states- otherwise it is a recipe for resumed guerrilla/terrorist/insurgent wars long into the future. Surge or no surge, once it becomes clear that the US is there to stay, bombings and roadside explosives will resume in Iraq. The fact is that Iraq cannot be ruled by foreigners, be they Americans, Iranians, or Arabs. It is not like the Philippines, Germany or Japan. It is a country that has deep tribal, ethnic, and sectarian divisions and has always been deeply suspicious of foreign powers. McCain’s cavalier attitude toward a long-term occupation is foolish, for it will surely lead to a re-surgence of the insurgency/terrorism of 2004-2007. The current surge may, just may, calm things in Iraq enough help get him, or another Republican, elected president: I certainly hope the election's outcome will be different. In that case it may also cause his defeat four years later.
Alzawraa Iraqi (Sunni) web site reports that US forces distribute development funds in al-Anbar province only through the local sheikhs who are members of the Awakening Councils. The report claims that millions of dollars are distributed without going through the normal procedures and channels for such development projects.
Come to think of it, the whole being of the Awakening Councils is outside the bounds of normal Iraqi political procedures and channels- so what are a few million dollars to grease the greasy palms of some shaikhs on the payroll? Shaikh Ahmad Abu Risha, whose brother was killed last year, and probably the biggest beneficiary of such money, has denied the allegations, reminding us that there are no alligators in Iraq.
It can kill you: aafaq reports that an Iranian youth aged 22 years has been sentenced to death for drinking alcohol for times. Apparently during the fourth time the man pushed his luck and decided to carry his party outside into the streets. Imbibers are flogged and jailed, but technically a drinker can be sentenced to death if he confesses to having imbibed at least four times. Now the question is: how the hell did they get him to confess? The case is subject to appeal.
Recently tow sisters were sentenced to death in Iran after being convicted of adultery. This intrigues me: what about the men involved? Normally it takes at least two to commit adultery, except maybe in Pakistan.
The Infanticide Law West of Aramco: Speaking of executions, Aalarabiya reports that last July a Saudi teenager aged 15 years was executed by beheading, after being convicted of murdering another teen when he was at the age of 13. There is a dispute about whether international rules that prohibit execution of minors aged 13-15 years apply here. In any case, the boy’s family is suing for $ 2.7 million. Apparently Saudi law does not go by age, but by whether the accused is physically mature- wtf this means.
The family lawyer has stated that until now the boy’s body has not been returned to his family. The family were not told of the execution until they went and tried to visit him. The victim, another boy, was found murdered with signs of sexual assault. The lawyer has said that the convicted boy was beaten up until he ‘confessed’.
Sneaky Saudis, they probably executed the child so fast and so secretly to avoid having to bow to an international uproar.
Gulf Reflections:
You can take the person out of the tribe, but you can’t take the tribe out of the person: I recalled this fact during my trip back to the hometown on the Gulf last month. Societies change, but some things are difficult to shake off. Talking politics with a friend when I was back, and this being the Gulf region, the subject touched on US elections and the role of families in politics. He mentioned Ford, the former US president, and commented on how famous and rich families in the United States as well tend to amass political power. He also mentioned the Kennedys. I tried to correct him, briefly explaining that Gerald Ford was not of the FORD family, Ford as in Edsel, and that in the old days the Irish-Catholic Kennedys were not considered among the ‘in’ families in America. He seemed doubtful: how can the man be named Ford unless he belonged to the Ford family? Which of course made sense, in a Gulf Arab context. I though that it would be too much of a shock for him if I fully explained Mr. Ford’s background.
This was not the first time I had seen this, especially about Ford, because of his famous name. I have read past newspaper columns in the Gulf region mentioning the same point, how powerful business families reach power in America, and using Gerald Ford as an example.
This is a Gulfie phenomenon, where societies are small, and the powerful merchant families are a handful and they tend to jealously guard the influence and political clout their names have bestowed on them so far. While these families tend to intermarry in order to keep the wealth within the families and not dilute the political clout, the world around them is changing rapidly, and the general population, the plebeians, the plebs (I would not say the proletarii), are growing very fast, with all that entails in a shift of political power and new economic demands. This creates much insecurity among the few families that were used to having power and unlimited access to the rulers. This partly explains the clamor for changing electoral districts in order to dilute the “others’” votes, especially the Bedouin desert people who are strongly allied with Sunni Salafi fundamentalist groups. (The Shi’a vote has been taken care of: somehow they never get more than 10% of the legislative seats- it is almost like a quota, but perhaps that is so because they often tend to vote for their own fundamentalist candidates like everyone else..…perhaps).
This obsession with names gets carried to absurd limits sometimes: A few years ago a famous newspaper owner, chief editor, and businessman noted that someone carried the same family name as his but was not related to him. It was someone he apparently thought was not of the right class. So he purchased advertisements in several daily newspapers, bold half-page ads, to the effect that a Mr. So-and-So, who chanced to carry the same last name as the advertiser, was in fact not related to him or anyone of his family. People were amused about the ads, but nobody thought it too odd. Try putting this kind of an ad during Super Bowl: it will handily beat Go-Daddy and Anheuser-Busch ads. Well, maybe not Go-Daddy’s.
Cheers
Mohammed
Senator McCain has called for a long-term US presence in Iraq. This is hopefully just a political ploy as the primaries head into the conservative Western states- otherwise it is a recipe for resumed guerrilla/terrorist/insurgent wars long into the future. Surge or no surge, once it becomes clear that the US is there to stay, bombings and roadside explosives will resume in Iraq. The fact is that Iraq cannot be ruled by foreigners, be they Americans, Iranians, or Arabs. It is not like the Philippines, Germany or Japan. It is a country that has deep tribal, ethnic, and sectarian divisions and has always been deeply suspicious of foreign powers. McCain’s cavalier attitude toward a long-term occupation is foolish, for it will surely lead to a re-surgence of the insurgency/terrorism of 2004-2007. The current surge may, just may, calm things in Iraq enough help get him, or another Republican, elected president: I certainly hope the election's outcome will be different. In that case it may also cause his defeat four years later.
Alzawraa Iraqi (Sunni) web site reports that US forces distribute development funds in al-Anbar province only through the local sheikhs who are members of the Awakening Councils. The report claims that millions of dollars are distributed without going through the normal procedures and channels for such development projects.
Come to think of it, the whole being of the Awakening Councils is outside the bounds of normal Iraqi political procedures and channels- so what are a few million dollars to grease the greasy palms of some shaikhs on the payroll? Shaikh Ahmad Abu Risha, whose brother was killed last year, and probably the biggest beneficiary of such money, has denied the allegations, reminding us that there are no alligators in Iraq.
It can kill you: aafaq reports that an Iranian youth aged 22 years has been sentenced to death for drinking alcohol for times. Apparently during the fourth time the man pushed his luck and decided to carry his party outside into the streets. Imbibers are flogged and jailed, but technically a drinker can be sentenced to death if he confesses to having imbibed at least four times. Now the question is: how the hell did they get him to confess? The case is subject to appeal.
Recently tow sisters were sentenced to death in Iran after being convicted of adultery. This intrigues me: what about the men involved? Normally it takes at least two to commit adultery, except maybe in Pakistan.
The Infanticide Law West of Aramco: Speaking of executions, Aalarabiya reports that last July a Saudi teenager aged 15 years was executed by beheading, after being convicted of murdering another teen when he was at the age of 13. There is a dispute about whether international rules that prohibit execution of minors aged 13-15 years apply here. In any case, the boy’s family is suing for $ 2.7 million. Apparently Saudi law does not go by age, but by whether the accused is physically mature- wtf this means.
The family lawyer has stated that until now the boy’s body has not been returned to his family. The family were not told of the execution until they went and tried to visit him. The victim, another boy, was found murdered with signs of sexual assault. The lawyer has said that the convicted boy was beaten up until he ‘confessed’.
Sneaky Saudis, they probably executed the child so fast and so secretly to avoid having to bow to an international uproar.
Gulf Reflections:
You can take the person out of the tribe, but you can’t take the tribe out of the person: I recalled this fact during my trip back to the hometown on the Gulf last month. Societies change, but some things are difficult to shake off. Talking politics with a friend when I was back, and this being the Gulf region, the subject touched on US elections and the role of families in politics. He mentioned Ford, the former US president, and commented on how famous and rich families in the United States as well tend to amass political power. He also mentioned the Kennedys. I tried to correct him, briefly explaining that Gerald Ford was not of the FORD family, Ford as in Edsel, and that in the old days the Irish-Catholic Kennedys were not considered among the ‘in’ families in America. He seemed doubtful: how can the man be named Ford unless he belonged to the Ford family? Which of course made sense, in a Gulf Arab context. I though that it would be too much of a shock for him if I fully explained Mr. Ford’s background.
This was not the first time I had seen this, especially about Ford, because of his famous name. I have read past newspaper columns in the Gulf region mentioning the same point, how powerful business families reach power in America, and using Gerald Ford as an example.
This is a Gulfie phenomenon, where societies are small, and the powerful merchant families are a handful and they tend to jealously guard the influence and political clout their names have bestowed on them so far. While these families tend to intermarry in order to keep the wealth within the families and not dilute the political clout, the world around them is changing rapidly, and the general population, the plebeians, the plebs (I would not say the proletarii), are growing very fast, with all that entails in a shift of political power and new economic demands. This creates much insecurity among the few families that were used to having power and unlimited access to the rulers. This partly explains the clamor for changing electoral districts in order to dilute the “others’” votes, especially the Bedouin desert people who are strongly allied with Sunni Salafi fundamentalist groups. (The Shi’a vote has been taken care of: somehow they never get more than 10% of the legislative seats- it is almost like a quota, but perhaps that is so because they often tend to vote for their own fundamentalist candidates like everyone else..…perhaps).
This obsession with names gets carried to absurd limits sometimes: A few years ago a famous newspaper owner, chief editor, and businessman noted that someone carried the same family name as his but was not related to him. It was someone he apparently thought was not of the right class. So he purchased advertisements in several daily newspapers, bold half-page ads, to the effect that a Mr. So-and-So, who chanced to carry the same last name as the advertiser, was in fact not related to him or anyone of his family. People were amused about the ads, but nobody thought it too odd. Try putting this kind of an ad during Super Bowl: it will handily beat Go-Daddy and Anheuser-Busch ads. Well, maybe not Go-Daddy’s.
Cheers
Mohammed
Friday, February 01, 2008
Some days ago, I arrived in the (Persian) Gulf on the same day that President Bush did- and in the same city. It is a measure of the low esteem of Mr. Bush that, even in the country his father liberated from Iraqi Ba'athist occupation, he is at best met with skepticism. Many people who gratefully adored his father as a liberator now despise Bush Jr.- at best they think of him as an inept president leading a disastrous administration. When people in the Gulf consider a U.S administration is inept, well, this is not only a case of the pot calling the kettle black- it is a definite trough, what is called in Mathematics a minimum, an absolute not a local minimum.
People I talked to in the Gulf region see this twilight tour of the Gulf states as partly Iran-related, partly Israel-related, and, last but not least, partly setting up the stage for lucrative future contracts for his buddies and his aides. He arrived in the emotional week before the highly emotional Shi'a (Shi'ite) holy day of 'Ashura- someone ought to have told him to put off his trip to the Gulf for a couple of weeks. Apparently nobody did, not his Middle East experts, not even his hosts. He did not do himself, or his country, any good in the Gulf, even if he did the sword dance with the royalty.
I wonder if he made the rounds of some Shi'a Husseiniyyas, religious houses, while in the Gulf region during this particular period- that would have opened his eyes...maybe...maybe.
In the Gulf, on the same evening of my arrival, I watched Bush cheerfully hobnob with the incense-soaked potentates with dye-blackened facial hair, while I sat with my older brother who is being destroyed by advancing Parkinson's. That is the same disease that Mr. Bush would rather not help eradicate if the research used is unacceptable to Christian Jihadists back in the United States.
Now we know that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is actually naked. The man who pooh poohed the financial crisis and the potential for a recession has been forced to eat crow, having been caught far behind the curve trying to catch up.
Cheers
Mohammed
People I talked to in the Gulf region see this twilight tour of the Gulf states as partly Iran-related, partly Israel-related, and, last but not least, partly setting up the stage for lucrative future contracts for his buddies and his aides. He arrived in the emotional week before the highly emotional Shi'a (Shi'ite) holy day of 'Ashura- someone ought to have told him to put off his trip to the Gulf for a couple of weeks. Apparently nobody did, not his Middle East experts, not even his hosts. He did not do himself, or his country, any good in the Gulf, even if he did the sword dance with the royalty.
I wonder if he made the rounds of some Shi'a Husseiniyyas, religious houses, while in the Gulf region during this particular period- that would have opened his eyes...maybe...maybe.
In the Gulf, on the same evening of my arrival, I watched Bush cheerfully hobnob with the incense-soaked potentates with dye-blackened facial hair, while I sat with my older brother who is being destroyed by advancing Parkinson's. That is the same disease that Mr. Bush would rather not help eradicate if the research used is unacceptable to Christian Jihadists back in the United States.
Now we know that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is actually naked. The man who pooh poohed the financial crisis and the potential for a recession has been forced to eat crow, having been caught far behind the curve trying to catch up.
Cheers
Mohammed
Some days ago, I arrived in the (Persian) Gulf on the same day that President Bush did- and in the same city. It is a measure of the low esteem of Mr. Bush that, even in the country his father liberated from Iraqi Ba'athist occupation, he is at best met with skepticism. Many people who gratefully adored his father as a liberator now despise Bush Jr.- at best they think of him as an inept president leading a disastrous administration. When people in the Gulf consider a U.S administration is inept, well, this is not only a case of the pot calling the kettle black- it is a definite trough, what is called in Mathematics a minimum, an absolute not a local minimum.
People I talked to in the Gulf region see this twilight tour of the Gulf states as partly Iran-related, partly Israel-related, and, last but not least, partly setting up the stage for lucrative future contracts for his buddies and his aides. He arrived in the emotional week before the highly emotional Shi'a (Shi'ite) holy day of 'Ashura- someone ought to have told him to put off his trip to the Gulf for a couple of weeks. Apparently nobody did, not his Middle East experts, not even his hosts. He did not do himself, or his country, any good in the Gulf, even if he did the sword dance with the royalty.
I wonder if he made the rounds of some Shi'a Husseiniyyas, religious houses, while in the Gulf region during this particular period- that would have opened his eyes...maybe...maybe.
In the Gulf, on the same evening of my arrival, I watched Bush cheerfully hobnob with the incense-soaked potentates with dye-blackened facial hair, while I sat with my older brother who is being destroyed by advancing Parkinson's. That is the same disease that Mr. Bush would rather not help eradicate if the research used is unacceptable to Christian Jihadists back in the United States.
Now we know that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is actually naked. The man who pooh poohed the financial crisis and the potential for a recession has been forced to eat crow, having been caught far behind the curve trying to catch up.
Cheers
Mohammed
People I talked to in the Gulf region see this twilight tour of the Gulf states as partly Iran-related, partly Israel-related, and, last but not least, partly setting up the stage for lucrative future contracts for his buddies and his aides. He arrived in the emotional week before the highly emotional Shi'a (Shi'ite) holy day of 'Ashura- someone ought to have told him to put off his trip to the Gulf for a couple of weeks. Apparently nobody did, not his Middle East experts, not even his hosts. He did not do himself, or his country, any good in the Gulf, even if he did the sword dance with the royalty.
I wonder if he made the rounds of some Shi'a Husseiniyyas, religious houses, while in the Gulf region during this particular period- that would have opened his eyes...maybe...maybe.
In the Gulf, on the same evening of my arrival, I watched Bush cheerfully hobnob with the incense-soaked potentates with dye-blackened facial hair, while I sat with my older brother who is being destroyed by advancing Parkinson's. That is the same disease that Mr. Bush would rather not help eradicate if the research used is unacceptable to Christian Jihadists back in the United States.
Now we know that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is actually naked. The man who pooh poohed the financial crisis and the potential for a recession has been forced to eat crow, having been caught far behind the curve trying to catch up.
Cheers
Mohammed
Saturday, January 26, 2008
"Leaving on a jetplane...
Don't know when I'll be back again......"
Peter, Paul & Mary- Dec 1969: their own bit of Bush-ism
A columnist, Mahmoud al-Mubarak, has written an interesting column in the daily alhayat . He titles it "When the Guest is an Idiot." No, he is not writing about Ahmadinejad as a guest of Columbia University- he is writing about another leader, another guest, on another visit just about to start. Now, if the two ever meet, it might be hilarious.
Elaph notes that the Israelis are receiving Mr. Bush (not with flowers, but) by intensifying the expansion of settlements in the occupied territories of the West bank.
The same site also headlines a report that "Arabs Lose 50% of Their Brains Each Year". My first reaction was extreme worry at the thought that all are becoming half-wits and then worse every year. In that case, and using some version of half-life analysis (the power of e exponential and all that), at some point in time the brain power of the Arab world will approach zero- but of course it will never get to zero- the mathematical function won't allow it. The curve will be asymptotic to the zero-line. I believe that will be much worse than the case is now- unless they lose 50% of the leaders each year, to voluntary retirement of course. Of course.
But not to worry, the report was not as revolutionary as that.
Now the mystery is cleared- perhaps this is why they don't let them drive over there. A Saudi woman in Cairo drove her Hummer into a taxi and killed three (so far). Some Cairo press reports claimed that she was a princess, but in Cairo any Gulf woman is a princess or a shaikha- many like being thought of as such, except for the real ones. Some Saudi media outlets were quick, in tribal Gulfie fashion, to declare that the (Saudi) woman is of an Egyptian mother- as if a personal accident casts a pall over Saudi Arabia, and an Egyptian mother somehow spreads the blame among the tribes....er....countries. Had the woman won a gold medal, or mor likely given birth to a kid with two sets of eyes, a holy sign in some circles, everybody would be scrambling to claim her...100%, and the other tribe be damned.
A richness of alibis: the lady claimed she was trying to dislodge her son who had slipped between the seats and that her brakes failed at the same: in the old days the Zionists would have been blamed as well- but that was the Old New Middle East...before the birth pangs that rained death over Southern Beirut and killed so many people in the Summer of 2006- Ok, OK, arguably those explosive birth pangs were initially invited by the Hezbollah action of kidnapping two Israeli soldiers, before they got out of hand.
Cheers
Mohammed
Don't know when I'll be back again......"
Peter, Paul & Mary- Dec 1969: their own bit of Bush-ism
A columnist, Mahmoud al-Mubarak, has written an interesting column in the daily alhayat . He titles it "When the Guest is an Idiot." No, he is not writing about Ahmadinejad as a guest of Columbia University- he is writing about another leader, another guest, on another visit just about to start. Now, if the two ever meet, it might be hilarious.
Elaph notes that the Israelis are receiving Mr. Bush (not with flowers, but) by intensifying the expansion of settlements in the occupied territories of the West bank.
The same site also headlines a report that "Arabs Lose 50% of Their Brains Each Year". My first reaction was extreme worry at the thought that all are becoming half-wits and then worse every year. In that case, and using some version of half-life analysis (the power of e exponential and all that), at some point in time the brain power of the Arab world will approach zero- but of course it will never get to zero- the mathematical function won't allow it. The curve will be asymptotic to the zero-line. I believe that will be much worse than the case is now- unless they lose 50% of the leaders each year, to voluntary retirement of course. Of course.
But not to worry, the report was not as revolutionary as that.
Now the mystery is cleared- perhaps this is why they don't let them drive over there. A Saudi woman in Cairo drove her Hummer into a taxi and killed three (so far). Some Cairo press reports claimed that she was a princess, but in Cairo any Gulf woman is a princess or a shaikha- many like being thought of as such, except for the real ones. Some Saudi media outlets were quick, in tribal Gulfie fashion, to declare that the (Saudi) woman is of an Egyptian mother- as if a personal accident casts a pall over Saudi Arabia, and an Egyptian mother somehow spreads the blame among the tribes....er....countries. Had the woman won a gold medal, or mor likely given birth to a kid with two sets of eyes, a holy sign in some circles, everybody would be scrambling to claim her...100%, and the other tribe be damned.
A richness of alibis: the lady claimed she was trying to dislodge her son who had slipped between the seats and that her brakes failed at the same: in the old days the Zionists would have been blamed as well- but that was the Old New Middle East...before the birth pangs that rained death over Southern Beirut and killed so many people in the Summer of 2006- Ok, OK, arguably those explosive birth pangs were initially invited by the Hezbollah action of kidnapping two Israeli soldiers, before they got out of hand.
Cheers
Mohammed
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
The Secretary General of the Arab League is probably a humorous person, many Egyptians are- unlike, say, the Lebanese and Jordanians where it is often impossible to discern a sense of humor. In the Gulf states there is some limited sense humor as well, but it is always at the expense of others. Perhaps this is because the Egyptians are secure of their own place in history- they have no inferiority complex, because they concede that they are in many ways inferiors to some other nations now. The others, they suspect that they are inferior, in many ways, to many others as well, but they would never concede it, and try to cover it up with permanent scowls which scream "I am serious, take me seriously." Try driving or walking around in the Gulf States or in Jordan, or Lebanon- you'll see mostly scowling faces, especially among the extremely insecure men. This also applies to a lesser extent to Iranians and I suspect the Israelis as well, although I doubt that they can match the others.
Almost all of them have at least one thing in common: they are ruled by lousy regimes. But so are the Egyptians, who seem to have kept their historic sense of humor- but I suspect that the longer Mr. Mubarak lasts, the less humorous Egyptians will become. Before you know it, you can walk around a grim Cairo, looking at scowling faces, thinking you might be in Amman, Riyadh, or Beirut.
Back to Mr. Moussa, the Arab League chief. He said the other day that Lebanon is solely 'an Arab issue'. He said that between visits of American and French dignitaries, and between statements from Mr. Bush, Secretary Rice, and M. Sarkozy about what should happen in Lebanon. Even Dr. M. Kouchner, whose heart is probably not in it, has opined on it.
The Iranians, the target of the League's statement, are being clever about it. They have a finger in the Lebanese pie, like evrybody else, but they have refrained from making public statements about Lebanon recently. Which has led to louder complaints by frustrated Arab governments and their media about "non-Arab" interference in Lebanon- they do not mean American, French, or Israeli interference. Perhaps they mean Hezollah and Syria which are Arab and not Mr. Hariri who is both Lebanese and Saudi- and as Arab as a Lebanese can get.
Arab media, especially in the Gulf region, are full of columnists sharing with us their wishes for the new year. They mostly want for the Lebanon impasse to be settled, for Syria to desist, for democracy to prevail in places like Venezuela, Pakistan and Myanmar- and in some Arab states like Syria, but only Syria is named because that is the only Arab state where democracy, accountability and freedom do not flourish.
Either they are insinuating that these are the main countries of the world that are still undemocratic, or they are insinuating that it is hopeless to hope for democracy in the Arab world and hence it is best to push for it elsewhere. I suspect the latter in most cases.
Hezbollah's Hassan Nassrallah has also opined on his country's situation. He has threatened more serious civil action to break the political deadlock. Except the deadlock is not lasting because of the Lebanese, they are good at compromises- it is lasting because both sides are being subjected to extreme pressure from their rich Arab and powerful foreign supporters.
Iran's supreme leader (for life of course), no, the real leader not Ahmadinejad (he is only the elected help), has stated that not having relations with America is one of the main policies of his country. This is the first time I hear that not having relations with another country is a major policy of a government. Perhaps the US stand on Cuba is another case, althoug there might be unresolved financial, economic, and Florida electoral issues involved in that case.
He hinted that Messrs Bush and Chaney should not lose hope though, because this may change some day.
Oh, and more than one Arab opinion-maker has expressed the wish that, in 2008, the biggest hit Arab song will be something other than the hit for 2007: that one was "bahibbak ya hmar, I Love You, Jackass". No idea which one of the jackasses the song was dedicated to- I believe it is a one-size-fits-all type of song that can be sung in any Arab capital safely.
Cheers
Mohammed
Almost all of them have at least one thing in common: they are ruled by lousy regimes. But so are the Egyptians, who seem to have kept their historic sense of humor- but I suspect that the longer Mr. Mubarak lasts, the less humorous Egyptians will become. Before you know it, you can walk around a grim Cairo, looking at scowling faces, thinking you might be in Amman, Riyadh, or Beirut.
Back to Mr. Moussa, the Arab League chief. He said the other day that Lebanon is solely 'an Arab issue'. He said that between visits of American and French dignitaries, and between statements from Mr. Bush, Secretary Rice, and M. Sarkozy about what should happen in Lebanon. Even Dr. M. Kouchner, whose heart is probably not in it, has opined on it.
The Iranians, the target of the League's statement, are being clever about it. They have a finger in the Lebanese pie, like evrybody else, but they have refrained from making public statements about Lebanon recently. Which has led to louder complaints by frustrated Arab governments and their media about "non-Arab" interference in Lebanon- they do not mean American, French, or Israeli interference. Perhaps they mean Hezollah and Syria which are Arab and not Mr. Hariri who is both Lebanese and Saudi- and as Arab as a Lebanese can get.
Arab media, especially in the Gulf region, are full of columnists sharing with us their wishes for the new year. They mostly want for the Lebanon impasse to be settled, for Syria to desist, for democracy to prevail in places like Venezuela, Pakistan and Myanmar- and in some Arab states like Syria, but only Syria is named because that is the only Arab state where democracy, accountability and freedom do not flourish.
Either they are insinuating that these are the main countries of the world that are still undemocratic, or they are insinuating that it is hopeless to hope for democracy in the Arab world and hence it is best to push for it elsewhere. I suspect the latter in most cases.
Hezbollah's Hassan Nassrallah has also opined on his country's situation. He has threatened more serious civil action to break the political deadlock. Except the deadlock is not lasting because of the Lebanese, they are good at compromises- it is lasting because both sides are being subjected to extreme pressure from their rich Arab and powerful foreign supporters.
Iran's supreme leader (for life of course), no, the real leader not Ahmadinejad (he is only the elected help), has stated that not having relations with America is one of the main policies of his country. This is the first time I hear that not having relations with another country is a major policy of a government. Perhaps the US stand on Cuba is another case, althoug there might be unresolved financial, economic, and Florida electoral issues involved in that case.
He hinted that Messrs Bush and Chaney should not lose hope though, because this may change some day.
Oh, and more than one Arab opinion-maker has expressed the wish that, in 2008, the biggest hit Arab song will be something other than the hit for 2007: that one was "bahibbak ya hmar, I Love You, Jackass". No idea which one of the jackasses the song was dedicated to- I believe it is a one-size-fits-all type of song that can be sung in any Arab capital safely.
Cheers
Mohammed
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Arabia 2007, Political vacuums, Bhutto's Revenge,
"The root of the word 'vacuum' is the Latin adjective 'vacuus' which means empty, but space can never be perfectly empty. A perfect vacuum with a gaseous pressure of absolute zero is a philosophical concept that is never observed in practice, partly because 'quantum theory' predicts that no volume or space can be perfectly empty in this way." Wiko.
Arab media has been full of anguish over Lebanon. Statements by Arab leaders are full of the same anguish about Lebanon. They are all worried about the vacuum of the presidency in Lebanon. This is all symbolic, of course, because the president of Lebanon is a head of state and does not make policy: he is no more important for the daily running of the country than the presidents of Israel and Germany, and how many people remember their names? What they probably worry about is the continued impasse between the Hariri-Saniora rump cabinet and the Hezbollah-Amal-Michel Oun opposition, which has paralyzed the country. There is a vacuum in Lebanon that needs to be filled soon, if only bcause it is hampering the functioning of a full cabinet that does not exist.
Reporters, columnists, and opinion-makers in the (Persian) Gulf of Frustration states, some of them perofessors doubling as royal gunslingers, get especially misty-eyed about Lebanon these days. They lament the old days when they spent summers in cool Lebanon, doing and drinking many things they cannot do and drink at home whether in Najd, Hijaz or on the shores of the Gulf of Frustration. Those were the same old days when many disenfranchised Lebanese, mostly Shi'as, were confined to their southern villages and subsistence farms, and did not bother the bosses who ruled from Beirut and were mostly paid up agents of Western and Arab regimes. Those were the days when everybody knew their place: in true Arab fashion, as the atrocious popular Gulf saying goes, "one never extended his feet beyond his blanket". That tattered blanket has been kicked off and burned. Aaah, for the days of cheap drinks and cheap women in Lebanon, perhaps gone forever.
Yet everybody in the Arab media seems to ignore a bigger vacuum looming in the Middle East- in the largest Arab country. The president of Egypt, in power for over 26 years, is nearing eighty years of age. He has always refused to appoint a vice president, disingenuously claiming that he does not want to impose a future president on the country. And he says it with a straight face. He has imposed himself on the people without an election for all these years, yet he worries about a vice president. Of course he has been grooming his son to inherit power, in the style of a true Arab absolute monarchy, a la Kim Jung Il and Bashar al-Assad, both having inherited their respective countries and their peoples from their despotic fathers. He has been doing it for a quarter century, and has only been forced in recent years to show his hand. And the Arabs, rulers and media have bought it all, hook, line, and sinker- well, they know, but then they all play the same game. So apparently has the West: both Bush and Sarko stand next to Mubarak, creator of what can be potentially the biggest political vacuum in the MIddle East, and decry the vacuum in Lebanon. Clever Arab autocrat? Dumb Westerners? A bit of both.
The Saudi ruling family has noted the possibility of family conflict once the direct sons of old Ibn Saud are dead. The ruling family has set up a council from among its members, of course, to look into the issue of succession in the future. They do not want a vacuum and the potential internal conflicts it might lead to, as has happened in some emirates and sheikhdoms in the Gulf in recent years.
Iran's Ahmadinejad made a blunder of his own by talking about a coming vacuum in Iraq. He said that Iran, along with Iraqis and other regional nations like Saudi Arabia, can help fill the vacuum. This was another of his many foolish statements- he seems to be good at making them just when everybody has almost forgotten his last one. It shored up the Bush administration policy in Iraq and the Middle East by worrying Americans and scaring the hell out of some Arabs. But is any regime foolish enough to think it can supplant the United States in Iraq and do any better?
In Pakistan, the late Benazir Bhutto was being feted as a near-martyr democrat by the Western and Arab press when her will was read. In true 'turd' world fashion, she had willed the whole Pakistan People's Party to her 19 year old son and her husband with sticky fingers. That was her lousy present to her people on New Years Eve. Maybe it was her way of avenging herself and her father. No wonder Pakistan is a hopeless case with nuclear weapons. Imagine Hillary willing the Democratic Party to Chelsea.
Alarabiya TV reports that Saudi Arabian security has been holding a blogger, Fouad al-Farhan, for three weeks now. Officials say he is being held for breaking certain 'regulations'. They did not say what these regulations were that he broke- perhaps they have not decided. I think it has to do with free speech and speaking his mind, to some extent. The report notes that he is one of the few Saudi bloggers who write in their own names. His family have not seen him since his arrest, and they do not know what he is being charged with. Bloggers in Egypt were also eagerly persecuted by the thugs of the security services, with several arrests and many sites being closed.
On the brighter side, and contrary to some 'expert' predictions in the West, petroleum prices held steady and then moved above $ 90 during the year. This has been good politically for all Middle East rulers, both Arab and Iranian. Talk of reform continues, but it is more muted, and is almost exclusively about economic and financial reform, which tends to flow with about the speed of cold molasses on a January morning.
Cheers
Mohammed
Arab media has been full of anguish over Lebanon. Statements by Arab leaders are full of the same anguish about Lebanon. They are all worried about the vacuum of the presidency in Lebanon. This is all symbolic, of course, because the president of Lebanon is a head of state and does not make policy: he is no more important for the daily running of the country than the presidents of Israel and Germany, and how many people remember their names? What they probably worry about is the continued impasse between the Hariri-Saniora rump cabinet and the Hezbollah-Amal-Michel Oun opposition, which has paralyzed the country. There is a vacuum in Lebanon that needs to be filled soon, if only bcause it is hampering the functioning of a full cabinet that does not exist.
Reporters, columnists, and opinion-makers in the (Persian) Gulf of Frustration states, some of them perofessors doubling as royal gunslingers, get especially misty-eyed about Lebanon these days. They lament the old days when they spent summers in cool Lebanon, doing and drinking many things they cannot do and drink at home whether in Najd, Hijaz or on the shores of the Gulf of Frustration. Those were the same old days when many disenfranchised Lebanese, mostly Shi'as, were confined to their southern villages and subsistence farms, and did not bother the bosses who ruled from Beirut and were mostly paid up agents of Western and Arab regimes. Those were the days when everybody knew their place: in true Arab fashion, as the atrocious popular Gulf saying goes, "one never extended his feet beyond his blanket". That tattered blanket has been kicked off and burned. Aaah, for the days of cheap drinks and cheap women in Lebanon, perhaps gone forever.
Yet everybody in the Arab media seems to ignore a bigger vacuum looming in the Middle East- in the largest Arab country. The president of Egypt, in power for over 26 years, is nearing eighty years of age. He has always refused to appoint a vice president, disingenuously claiming that he does not want to impose a future president on the country. And he says it with a straight face. He has imposed himself on the people without an election for all these years, yet he worries about a vice president. Of course he has been grooming his son to inherit power, in the style of a true Arab absolute monarchy, a la Kim Jung Il and Bashar al-Assad, both having inherited their respective countries and their peoples from their despotic fathers. He has been doing it for a quarter century, and has only been forced in recent years to show his hand. And the Arabs, rulers and media have bought it all, hook, line, and sinker- well, they know, but then they all play the same game. So apparently has the West: both Bush and Sarko stand next to Mubarak, creator of what can be potentially the biggest political vacuum in the MIddle East, and decry the vacuum in Lebanon. Clever Arab autocrat? Dumb Westerners? A bit of both.
The Saudi ruling family has noted the possibility of family conflict once the direct sons of old Ibn Saud are dead. The ruling family has set up a council from among its members, of course, to look into the issue of succession in the future. They do not want a vacuum and the potential internal conflicts it might lead to, as has happened in some emirates and sheikhdoms in the Gulf in recent years.
Iran's Ahmadinejad made a blunder of his own by talking about a coming vacuum in Iraq. He said that Iran, along with Iraqis and other regional nations like Saudi Arabia, can help fill the vacuum. This was another of his many foolish statements- he seems to be good at making them just when everybody has almost forgotten his last one. It shored up the Bush administration policy in Iraq and the Middle East by worrying Americans and scaring the hell out of some Arabs. But is any regime foolish enough to think it can supplant the United States in Iraq and do any better?
In Pakistan, the late Benazir Bhutto was being feted as a near-martyr democrat by the Western and Arab press when her will was read. In true 'turd' world fashion, she had willed the whole Pakistan People's Party to her 19 year old son and her husband with sticky fingers. That was her lousy present to her people on New Years Eve. Maybe it was her way of avenging herself and her father. No wonder Pakistan is a hopeless case with nuclear weapons. Imagine Hillary willing the Democratic Party to Chelsea.
Alarabiya TV reports that Saudi Arabian security has been holding a blogger, Fouad al-Farhan, for three weeks now. Officials say he is being held for breaking certain 'regulations'. They did not say what these regulations were that he broke- perhaps they have not decided. I think it has to do with free speech and speaking his mind, to some extent. The report notes that he is one of the few Saudi bloggers who write in their own names. His family have not seen him since his arrest, and they do not know what he is being charged with. Bloggers in Egypt were also eagerly persecuted by the thugs of the security services, with several arrests and many sites being closed.
On the brighter side, and contrary to some 'expert' predictions in the West, petroleum prices held steady and then moved above $ 90 during the year. This has been good politically for all Middle East rulers, both Arab and Iranian. Talk of reform continues, but it is more muted, and is almost exclusively about economic and financial reform, which tends to flow with about the speed of cold molasses on a January morning.
Cheers
Mohammed
Monday, December 31, 2007
The official website of Iran's president yesterday headlined the following nuggets:
- Ahmadinejad terms Iran-Sudan relations "excellent".
- President appreciates filmmakers boycotting Denmark film festival.
- Ahmadinejad calls for enhancement of ties with Latin America.
- President calls for special attention to welfare of villagers.
- Production of auto engines for domestic production a source of natinal pride: president.
(That last one is a classic, my favorite- with the one about Sudan relations th runner-up).
His own personal blog, titled 'Ahmadinejad's Personal Memos' reads like a Dear Abby of (usually Islamic) piety. Something like Mike Huckabee's blog might look like, but perhaps more coherent, and with more crosses, Mathews, and Lukes than sauras and ayahs. Given the eschatology-centered GOP campaigns, any Republican website might look like that....even Rudy's during his first term.
Secretary Rice said she will meet her Iranian counterpart anytime, anywhere with the condition that Iran first stop enriching uranium. Except that the Iranians have not asked for such a meeting yet, and are now less likely to do so.
This was an unusual thing because it will almost certainly be rejected, especially now that the Bush administration looks unlikely to succeed in pushing through tougher international sanctions. Normally, a meeting among diplomats is a means, part of a process, toward a goal. Meetings are what diplomats do, and as such a meeting can never be considered a reward, not by both sides. Unless it is a date, and some dates can be included in the rewards column- which this one certainly ain't, not from the point of view of the dour Iranian mullahs.
The election of a Lebanese president has been postponed for the nth time. Both sides, the Hariri-Saniora camp and the opposition camp, now agree on the same candidate for the job, but there are differences on details- as it is in any deal, the devil is in the details.
President Bush has said that 'the world' wants a Lebanese president elected based on the demands of the Hariri-Saniora-Junblatt camp, which is the American-Saudi (and by default and preference Israeli) camp as opposed to the opposition Hizbollah-Amal-Michel Oun camp, which can be dubbed the Syrian-Iranian camp.
He did not make the mistake of saying that the Lebanese people want that: he may realize by now that many Lebanese, perhaps more than one half of them, do not want that.
Hezbollah responded quickly to Mr. Bush, asserting that they reject his wisaya over Lebanon, a term meaning mandate or guardianship over someone. Its spokesman claimed that it was Mr. Bush who is blocking an agreement which was within reach. Meanwhile a spokesman for the rump cabinet, with the name of Fitfit, said that the cabinet, what remains of it, will not resort to selecting a president on their own, although he said that option was not off the table for the future. Perhaps it is Fatfat in the Lebanese accent which is more singsong than my Gulf accent- either way it sounds French and feline. Back to the basics: Hezbollah and her allies claimed that Mr. Bush's proposals go against the Lebanese constitution.
In Iraq the government is pressing for various 'Awakening Council' Sunni militias that are mushrooming and are funded and armed by the Americans to be brought under central Iraqi control. Baghdad looks with suspicion at these militias, and rightly so, since they had been until recently allied with al-Qaeda. It is suspected that they may be biding their time before turning their guns and bombs against the government. Actually there is no uncertainty here: once US troops start to depart in earnest and petro-money and arms from all the neighboring countries start to flood in more rapidly than now, this is most likely what will happen. Baghdad's suspicion is probably exacerbated by the fact that some Saudi-owned media have recently been calling for similar 'awakening councils' in the Shi'a provinces as well.
Unfortunately the same measures that may have contributed to the current success of the surge may end up defeating US goals in Iraq in the long term, that is if the goal is a stable Iraq under a viable and elected central government.
The Guardian (UK) newspaper has published details of Tony 'Yo' Blair's role in pressuring the British Serious Frauds Office and the Attorney General to quash invetigation of the famous GBP 1 billion payoff (also called a bribe but not in polite mixed company). This was allegedly paid off by the British defense contractor BAE to Prince Bandar Bin Sultan while he was ambassador in Washington- before he became national security adviser to the Bush administration which was before he became head of the Saudi National Security. The report cites the various stages of the exchange between Blair and the investigators, and how they eventually caved in to Blair, who had already caved in to the Saudis.
Cheers
Mohammed
- Ahmadinejad terms Iran-Sudan relations "excellent".
- President appreciates filmmakers boycotting Denmark film festival.
- Ahmadinejad calls for enhancement of ties with Latin America.
- President calls for special attention to welfare of villagers.
- Production of auto engines for domestic production a source of natinal pride: president.
(That last one is a classic, my favorite- with the one about Sudan relations th runner-up).
His own personal blog, titled 'Ahmadinejad's Personal Memos' reads like a Dear Abby of (usually Islamic) piety. Something like Mike Huckabee's blog might look like, but perhaps more coherent, and with more crosses, Mathews, and Lukes than sauras and ayahs. Given the eschatology-centered GOP campaigns, any Republican website might look like that....even Rudy's during his first term.
Secretary Rice said she will meet her Iranian counterpart anytime, anywhere with the condition that Iran first stop enriching uranium. Except that the Iranians have not asked for such a meeting yet, and are now less likely to do so.
This was an unusual thing because it will almost certainly be rejected, especially now that the Bush administration looks unlikely to succeed in pushing through tougher international sanctions. Normally, a meeting among diplomats is a means, part of a process, toward a goal. Meetings are what diplomats do, and as such a meeting can never be considered a reward, not by both sides. Unless it is a date, and some dates can be included in the rewards column- which this one certainly ain't, not from the point of view of the dour Iranian mullahs.
The election of a Lebanese president has been postponed for the nth time. Both sides, the Hariri-Saniora camp and the opposition camp, now agree on the same candidate for the job, but there are differences on details- as it is in any deal, the devil is in the details.
President Bush has said that 'the world' wants a Lebanese president elected based on the demands of the Hariri-Saniora-Junblatt camp, which is the American-Saudi (and by default and preference Israeli) camp as opposed to the opposition Hizbollah-Amal-Michel Oun camp, which can be dubbed the Syrian-Iranian camp.
He did not make the mistake of saying that the Lebanese people want that: he may realize by now that many Lebanese, perhaps more than one half of them, do not want that.
Hezbollah responded quickly to Mr. Bush, asserting that they reject his wisaya over Lebanon, a term meaning mandate or guardianship over someone. Its spokesman claimed that it was Mr. Bush who is blocking an agreement which was within reach. Meanwhile a spokesman for the rump cabinet, with the name of Fitfit, said that the cabinet, what remains of it, will not resort to selecting a president on their own, although he said that option was not off the table for the future. Perhaps it is Fatfat in the Lebanese accent which is more singsong than my Gulf accent- either way it sounds French and feline. Back to the basics: Hezbollah and her allies claimed that Mr. Bush's proposals go against the Lebanese constitution.
In Iraq the government is pressing for various 'Awakening Council' Sunni militias that are mushrooming and are funded and armed by the Americans to be brought under central Iraqi control. Baghdad looks with suspicion at these militias, and rightly so, since they had been until recently allied with al-Qaeda. It is suspected that they may be biding their time before turning their guns and bombs against the government. Actually there is no uncertainty here: once US troops start to depart in earnest and petro-money and arms from all the neighboring countries start to flood in more rapidly than now, this is most likely what will happen. Baghdad's suspicion is probably exacerbated by the fact that some Saudi-owned media have recently been calling for similar 'awakening councils' in the Shi'a provinces as well.
Unfortunately the same measures that may have contributed to the current success of the surge may end up defeating US goals in Iraq in the long term, that is if the goal is a stable Iraq under a viable and elected central government.
The Guardian (UK) newspaper has published details of Tony 'Yo' Blair's role in pressuring the British Serious Frauds Office and the Attorney General to quash invetigation of the famous GBP 1 billion payoff (also called a bribe but not in polite mixed company). This was allegedly paid off by the British defense contractor BAE to Prince Bandar Bin Sultan while he was ambassador in Washington- before he became national security adviser to the Bush administration which was before he became head of the Saudi National Security. The report cites the various stages of the exchange between Blair and the investigators, and how they eventually caved in to Blair, who had already caved in to the Saudis.
Cheers
Mohammed
Friday, December 21, 2007
NewSpeak in Arabia: News media reported recently that Saudi King Abdullah has pardoned the 'Qatif girl' who was abducted and raped by seven men and was later sentenced to prison and flogging for her troubles. Not one outlet noted the irony in this act- but them, we are not known for understanding irony.
This is good news because it shows that world pressure works in some of the darker corners of the world.
It is also good news because the victim was 'pardoned', and 'pardoning' a victim is a good and humane thing- I think it is better than giving her 200 lashes. All victims should be pardoned, because they deserve it more than the criminals who are pardoned, no? There is no more to say on this, for now.
Hillary Clinton's campaign is trying hard to clear itself from any accusations of fear-mongering. Campaign spokesmen have been re-iterating on television, on a daily basis, that they did not bring up the 'cocaine' issue intentionally, that they do not think the 'cocsaine' issue matters, and that they will never raise the 'cocaine' issue again, no matter what new revelations come out about Senator Obama and his association with the use and trade of 'coaine' or other such substances.
Meanwhile, former Senator Bob Kerry, an aspiring VP, has put in his own two Manhattan subway tokens in trying to heal the party. He said that Senator Barack Hussein Obama should highlight (shades of The New School?) his middle name, and should be proud of his African father's name, 'Hussein'. The former senator almost hinted that Obama's father was not likely any relation of Saddam 'Hussein'. Kerry said while standing next to a beaming Hillary "It's probably not something that appeals to him, but I like the fact that his name is Barack Hussein Obama, and that his father was a Muslim and that his paternal grandmother is a Muslim."
Kerry, the war hero possibly turned hatchet man, did not have time to call for a series of one-on-one debates between Barack and Hillary. Nor to offer that Clinton, Hillary not Bill, would be happy to wear a Hijab, or Burq'a, or even the more modernistic Niqab, just to show Iowa voters her cultural sensitivity to any latent Islamic quirks that Obama may hold. She would do it, he would have said, if being open-faced would insult Obama's Muslim heritage.
He did not, however, repeat that "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself....."
Cheers
Mohammed
This is good news because it shows that world pressure works in some of the darker corners of the world.
It is also good news because the victim was 'pardoned', and 'pardoning' a victim is a good and humane thing- I think it is better than giving her 200 lashes. All victims should be pardoned, because they deserve it more than the criminals who are pardoned, no? There is no more to say on this, for now.
Hillary Clinton's campaign is trying hard to clear itself from any accusations of fear-mongering. Campaign spokesmen have been re-iterating on television, on a daily basis, that they did not bring up the 'cocaine' issue intentionally, that they do not think the 'cocsaine' issue matters, and that they will never raise the 'cocaine' issue again, no matter what new revelations come out about Senator Obama and his association with the use and trade of 'coaine' or other such substances.
Meanwhile, former Senator Bob Kerry, an aspiring VP, has put in his own two Manhattan subway tokens in trying to heal the party. He said that Senator Barack Hussein Obama should highlight (shades of The New School?) his middle name, and should be proud of his African father's name, 'Hussein'. The former senator almost hinted that Obama's father was not likely any relation of Saddam 'Hussein'. Kerry said while standing next to a beaming Hillary "It's probably not something that appeals to him, but I like the fact that his name is Barack Hussein Obama, and that his father was a Muslim and that his paternal grandmother is a Muslim."
Kerry, the war hero possibly turned hatchet man, did not have time to call for a series of one-on-one debates between Barack and Hillary. Nor to offer that Clinton, Hillary not Bill, would be happy to wear a Hijab, or Burq'a, or even the more modernistic Niqab, just to show Iowa voters her cultural sensitivity to any latent Islamic quirks that Obama may hold. She would do it, he would have said, if being open-faced would insult Obama's Muslim heritage.
He did not, however, repeat that "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself....."
Cheers
Mohammed
Thursday, December 20, 2007
There was a Republican debate in Iowa last week. I was following the stock market, and it was moving up earlier. The Dow Jones Index had stabilized around 80 points plus when the debate started. It was interesting to see how the debate influenced the market indices.
The candidates were not exactly Churchillian, even with the country engaged in two wars and possibly facing a third one. But then nobody has sounded Churchillian, not even on 9/11 and the days after- remember the great Decider oratory about defeating the terrorists by going shopping? How more ordinary can leaders get?. But they were excited, drooling, about cutting taxes furiously (or is it slashing, which evokes those teen films) in order to achieve the following lofty goals, not all of them Lafferian:
Clean up the environment (one or two actually conceded that global warming existed, and to hell with Rush Limbaugh and that angry chubby guy on CNN Headline News).
Stop illegal immigration (Rep. Tomas Tancredo was salivating at this point, who knows: perhaps he was even undergoing more although he doesn't seem like the type, because he looked almost joyous, a very uncharacteristic state for him. Or maybe he was just grimacing, thinking of all those child rapists and other criminals waiting to cross the border)
Defeat terrorism, especially Islamic terrorism whether Sunni, Shi'a, Salafi, or Unitarian. (plausible over time).
Improve the quality of education (Rep. Hunter seemed ready to appoint Jaime A. Escalante, the teacher from Stand and Deliver, as secretary of education. Or maybe he just meant Edward James Olmos)
Improve the economy and employment (plausible)
Reduce dependence on foreign oil. (In your dreams, gentlemen. Besides, this may conflict with the goal of cleaning up the environment (see above)).
Encourage celibacy (definitely a quixotic quest, just ask Rudy).
Reduce abortion.
Raise overall moral standards (possible, but depends on what the definiton of it is).
The market indices gradually declined as they debated, and by the end of it the Dow had made a 150 point turnaround to the negative, with the Nasdaq and S&P following closely. The market buttomed at the end of the debate, and once the gentlemen had departed, the indices started to improve. They closed modestly up, and it was a good thing they ended the debate almost an hour before the markets closed- gave the markets time to recover.
I have no idea at this point what people in the Middle East think of all this. Perhaps we can have debates among the eligible sons of potentates to see who will get to the throne without having to off the others. But then all these will be of the male denomination, and where would that put Hillary?
Since there are no taxes in the Western sense in most Arab countries, things work backwards. The rulers and potentates get the income, from oil or sheep or whatever, and they get the first dibs, then it goes to the budget, where it is spent, and they get a second dibs through the various 'services' they provide. So, it is hard to see whose taxes can be slashed and cut here.
I also wonder what our leaders and potentates would think of Mike Huckabee's surprising discourse on the division of labor in the brain: right side for arts and creativity, left side for logic and analysis (I assume it is this way all over the world, not just in Arkansas). I wonder which side, if any, they use the most.
Cheers
Mohammed
The candidates were not exactly Churchillian, even with the country engaged in two wars and possibly facing a third one. But then nobody has sounded Churchillian, not even on 9/11 and the days after- remember the great Decider oratory about defeating the terrorists by going shopping? How more ordinary can leaders get?. But they were excited, drooling, about cutting taxes furiously (or is it slashing, which evokes those teen films) in order to achieve the following lofty goals, not all of them Lafferian:
Clean up the environment (one or two actually conceded that global warming existed, and to hell with Rush Limbaugh and that angry chubby guy on CNN Headline News).
Stop illegal immigration (Rep. Tomas Tancredo was salivating at this point, who knows: perhaps he was even undergoing more although he doesn't seem like the type, because he looked almost joyous, a very uncharacteristic state for him. Or maybe he was just grimacing, thinking of all those child rapists and other criminals waiting to cross the border)
Defeat terrorism, especially Islamic terrorism whether Sunni, Shi'a, Salafi, or Unitarian. (plausible over time).
Improve the quality of education (Rep. Hunter seemed ready to appoint Jaime A. Escalante, the teacher from Stand and Deliver, as secretary of education. Or maybe he just meant Edward James Olmos)
Improve the economy and employment (plausible)
Reduce dependence on foreign oil. (In your dreams, gentlemen. Besides, this may conflict with the goal of cleaning up the environment (see above)).
Encourage celibacy (definitely a quixotic quest, just ask Rudy).
Reduce abortion.
Raise overall moral standards (possible, but depends on what the definiton of it is).
The market indices gradually declined as they debated, and by the end of it the Dow had made a 150 point turnaround to the negative, with the Nasdaq and S&P following closely. The market buttomed at the end of the debate, and once the gentlemen had departed, the indices started to improve. They closed modestly up, and it was a good thing they ended the debate almost an hour before the markets closed- gave the markets time to recover.
I have no idea at this point what people in the Middle East think of all this. Perhaps we can have debates among the eligible sons of potentates to see who will get to the throne without having to off the others. But then all these will be of the male denomination, and where would that put Hillary?
Since there are no taxes in the Western sense in most Arab countries, things work backwards. The rulers and potentates get the income, from oil or sheep or whatever, and they get the first dibs, then it goes to the budget, where it is spent, and they get a second dibs through the various 'services' they provide. So, it is hard to see whose taxes can be slashed and cut here.
I also wonder what our leaders and potentates would think of Mike Huckabee's surprising discourse on the division of labor in the brain: right side for arts and creativity, left side for logic and analysis (I assume it is this way all over the world, not just in Arkansas). I wonder which side, if any, they use the most.
Cheers
Mohammed
Monday, December 17, 2007
(This was posted on my website last week):
Things seem to be suddenly quieting down in the Gulf region, in terms of rhetoric. There has been little follow-up on the NIE Iran report, after an initial burst of necon damage control spin all over the media outlets. President Bush, and even VP Cheney, have both been quiet on the subject. Even Iran's Ahmadinejad has been silenced- Iran's al-alam TV website has barely referred to the nuclear issue these past few days. His own website barely mentions the issue now.
There is still vocal disappointment in some Arab media, particularly the Saudi-owned media like alhayat, asharqalawsat and a few Gulf satellite newpapers. And in these papers, there has been an increasing tendency over this past week of talk about a conspiracy. Some of the editors and columnists have even started to talk of 'capitulation' by Washington, which is absurd and only reflects nervousness at a possible rapprochement between Washington and the clerical regime in Tehran.
The ire has spread to the Lebanon crisis as well. A regular alhayat correspondent and analyst writes in today's (Dec. 14) edition that Bush is now compromising over Lebanon, abandoning his 'promises' to the Lebanese (meaning to the less than half of the Lebanese who support the Saniora-Hariri cabinet). When a country is as divided as Lebanon, or Iraq, or, come to think of it, as the United States, compromise is the only solution.
France's Nicholas Sarkozy has come under some fire as well this week, partly because of perceived laxity about Lebanon. He can't be compared to Chirac who was close to the Hariris- Chirac has had his own ethical/financial issues since leaving office, but these are the kind of issues that make some Arab media and rulers comfortable with a Western politician. Sarkozy doesn't seem to have these kind of issues, not yet, but then he is just a rookie.
There have also been dark hints in some Arab media this week about Sarkozy's close relations with 'Jewish goups', whatever they are, and talk of his Jewish 'roots' or connections. At the same time, he is criticized for being too easy on Syria in Lebanon, allowing her to regain some influence, something that clearly would conflict with the interests of these alleged 'groups'.
In the end, Riyadh may have more money, but it is too far and Lebanon is surrounded by Syrian territory except for a short strip of Israeli border.
Sarkozy has been under fire in Algeria as well, even during his latest visit. The Algerians, led by the forever-ruling FLN, are still blaming France for what they themselves, led by Mr. Bouteflika's FLN, have done during 45 years of independence to screw up their own country. Seeing how Algerians cross the Mediteranean by droves to live and work in France, they probably would have been better off staying part of France- after some changes to empower the Arab and Berber citizens. They would be free to speak, write, and vote by now. And they would enjoy European Union living standards by now.
Iraqi officials have hinted at a proxy war waged in Iraq between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran finances her allies and probably arms them, although anybody can buy any kind of arms in Iraq these days. Saudi Arabia is financing her proxies among the Sunni tribal shaikhs, and is trying now to buy off some of the marginal Shi'a shaikhs as well. The latter is unlikely to work for long, given the history and treatment of Shi'as in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are good at this sort of thing, funding a civil strife, and they have had longer experience in it than anyone else in the region. They had perfected this long before the Afghan war against the Soviets in the 1980s.
The first time was probably during the (North) Yemen civil war of the 1960s, after army officers overthrew the monarchy and proclaimed a republic. They were Nasserist pan-Arab secularists, and the Saudi regime was terrified at having a pro-Nasser secular republic next door, especially with unresolved border issues. They poured money among the tribal shaikhs and got the civil war started. Their nemesis, Egypt under Gamal Abdel-Nasser, had no choice but to send in troops to counter the flow of petro-money. Egypt's military was bogged down for several years in a guerrilla war with seventh-century tribes being financed by an eighth-century petro-dynasty. The Egyptians were bloodied and demoralized, and although this crtainly did not cause their defeat on June 5, 1967, it probably added to the other serious issues they had. They, together with Jordan and Syria would have lost the war anyway. The audacious Israeli war plan, tactics and superior training did most of the job.
Is it deja vu all over again, as they say in Riyadh? The Yemen war ended as a stalemate, but the monarchy was not restored: it remained a republic in name, although of course not democratic. It is not likely that the new Saudi efforts will fare any better in Lebanon or in Iraq- nor would any Iranian efforts to dominate these countries succeed, despite the media frenzy about that possibility. Not when at least half of the people in each of these countries seems to be on the 'wrong' side, or is it the 'right' side. Maybe this is why King Abdullah and Mr. Ahmadinejad have a date: they will be going to the Hajj together next week.
Cheers
Mohammed
Things seem to be suddenly quieting down in the Gulf region, in terms of rhetoric. There has been little follow-up on the NIE Iran report, after an initial burst of necon damage control spin all over the media outlets. President Bush, and even VP Cheney, have both been quiet on the subject. Even Iran's Ahmadinejad has been silenced- Iran's al-alam TV website has barely referred to the nuclear issue these past few days. His own website barely mentions the issue now.
There is still vocal disappointment in some Arab media, particularly the Saudi-owned media like alhayat, asharqalawsat and a few Gulf satellite newpapers. And in these papers, there has been an increasing tendency over this past week of talk about a conspiracy. Some of the editors and columnists have even started to talk of 'capitulation' by Washington, which is absurd and only reflects nervousness at a possible rapprochement between Washington and the clerical regime in Tehran.
The ire has spread to the Lebanon crisis as well. A regular alhayat correspondent and analyst writes in today's (Dec. 14) edition that Bush is now compromising over Lebanon, abandoning his 'promises' to the Lebanese (meaning to the less than half of the Lebanese who support the Saniora-Hariri cabinet). When a country is as divided as Lebanon, or Iraq, or, come to think of it, as the United States, compromise is the only solution.
France's Nicholas Sarkozy has come under some fire as well this week, partly because of perceived laxity about Lebanon. He can't be compared to Chirac who was close to the Hariris- Chirac has had his own ethical/financial issues since leaving office, but these are the kind of issues that make some Arab media and rulers comfortable with a Western politician. Sarkozy doesn't seem to have these kind of issues, not yet, but then he is just a rookie.
There have also been dark hints in some Arab media this week about Sarkozy's close relations with 'Jewish goups', whatever they are, and talk of his Jewish 'roots' or connections. At the same time, he is criticized for being too easy on Syria in Lebanon, allowing her to regain some influence, something that clearly would conflict with the interests of these alleged 'groups'.
In the end, Riyadh may have more money, but it is too far and Lebanon is surrounded by Syrian territory except for a short strip of Israeli border.
Sarkozy has been under fire in Algeria as well, even during his latest visit. The Algerians, led by the forever-ruling FLN, are still blaming France for what they themselves, led by Mr. Bouteflika's FLN, have done during 45 years of independence to screw up their own country. Seeing how Algerians cross the Mediteranean by droves to live and work in France, they probably would have been better off staying part of France- after some changes to empower the Arab and Berber citizens. They would be free to speak, write, and vote by now. And they would enjoy European Union living standards by now.
Iraqi officials have hinted at a proxy war waged in Iraq between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran finances her allies and probably arms them, although anybody can buy any kind of arms in Iraq these days. Saudi Arabia is financing her proxies among the Sunni tribal shaikhs, and is trying now to buy off some of the marginal Shi'a shaikhs as well. The latter is unlikely to work for long, given the history and treatment of Shi'as in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are good at this sort of thing, funding a civil strife, and they have had longer experience in it than anyone else in the region. They had perfected this long before the Afghan war against the Soviets in the 1980s.
The first time was probably during the (North) Yemen civil war of the 1960s, after army officers overthrew the monarchy and proclaimed a republic. They were Nasserist pan-Arab secularists, and the Saudi regime was terrified at having a pro-Nasser secular republic next door, especially with unresolved border issues. They poured money among the tribal shaikhs and got the civil war started. Their nemesis, Egypt under Gamal Abdel-Nasser, had no choice but to send in troops to counter the flow of petro-money. Egypt's military was bogged down for several years in a guerrilla war with seventh-century tribes being financed by an eighth-century petro-dynasty. The Egyptians were bloodied and demoralized, and although this crtainly did not cause their defeat on June 5, 1967, it probably added to the other serious issues they had. They, together with Jordan and Syria would have lost the war anyway. The audacious Israeli war plan, tactics and superior training did most of the job.
Is it deja vu all over again, as they say in Riyadh? The Yemen war ended as a stalemate, but the monarchy was not restored: it remained a republic in name, although of course not democratic. It is not likely that the new Saudi efforts will fare any better in Lebanon or in Iraq- nor would any Iranian efforts to dominate these countries succeed, despite the media frenzy about that possibility. Not when at least half of the people in each of these countries seems to be on the 'wrong' side, or is it the 'right' side. Maybe this is why King Abdullah and Mr. Ahmadinejad have a date: they will be going to the Hajj together next week.
Cheers
Mohammed
Sunday, December 16, 2007
A Closed Shop Media:
I was looking up inormation on Arab media ownership when I came across the minutes of a conference on Arab media held during March 2005. It was titled "Arab Media, Power and Influence" and it was sponsored by various groups, including Woodrow Wilson (Princeton), James A. Baker (yep, Rice), and the IISS.
What was shocking, or maybe it should not have been, was that almost all the Arab participants were either directly or indirectly employees of two ruling houses of the Gulf monarchies who own these major media outlets. The Arab participants were from Alhayat (published in London and reportedly owned by Prince Khalid Bin Sultan al-Saud), Asharq Alawsat (published in London and reportedly co-owned by Prince Salman al-Saud), Alarabiya TV (Saudi but broadcasts from Dubai, and has the same ownership as Asharq Alawsat), and Aljazeera (Qatar, and owned by an al-Thani shaikh).Then there was James Abourezq and a couple of other people. The rest were all either full-time staff of these venerable organizations or regular columnists and commentators. No one else of the media anywhere in the vast Arab world was deemed to have anything to say about the important issue except for these three semi-state-owned organizations.
They talked about some general aspects of Arab media including, oddly, "how ownership of Arab outlets drives media agenda". But that is not what they really talked about: the topic was plainly open for everyone to see, in the participants to the conference. It is not clear who financed that conference.....but in this case I am a betting man.
It is noteworthy (an understatement) that many pan-Arab media outlets have been snapped up and are now owned by Saudi conglomerates, including all the satellite multi-channels operated by ART, MBC, Rotana, and LBC of Lebanon (control of LBC was purchased recently by Prince al-Waleed from another Saudi potentate). They also pull the strings of a few newspapers that tow the official Saudi line on all issues in other Gulf states, especially in Kuwait and Bahrain- no need to mention Lebanon here. Now if they can only make a deal with Mel Karmazin and manage to shut up Howard Stern.
Now that the pressures of the 'unifying' threat of an American attack have receded, Iran's Ahmadinejad is coming under intense fire at home, from both rival politicians and college students who normally have little love for the hardliners. This must be seen in the context of parliamentary elections next spring and presidential elections in 2009. It is possible that Ahmadinejad will be voted out of office just a few months after Bill Clinton moves back into the White House (if she wins he'll probably be confined to the Lincoln Bedroom at night).
BTW on Oil prices: whatever happened to threats and predictions about a year ago that Saudi Arabia would follow a strategy of increasing oil production in order to halve crude prices and apply pressure to the Iranian econmy? The threats were tied to increased Iranian influence in Iraq and were taken quite seriously in the West, although this site dismissed them at the time mainly because of doubts about production capacity and the budgetary, and internal political, impact on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers. We also speculated at the time that the thousands of princes would not stand for having less dinero and lowering their lifestyles. Oil prices have since increased by about 30% or so, depending on the base price used for calculation. Apparently the princely Samsons decided to keep the temple standing because they did not like losing all that dinero and incurring public ire.
To paraphrase a famous lame duck: If they really want to beat the troublemakers, they should keep on shopping.
Cheers
Mohammed
I was looking up inormation on Arab media ownership when I came across the minutes of a conference on Arab media held during March 2005. It was titled "Arab Media, Power and Influence" and it was sponsored by various groups, including Woodrow Wilson (Princeton), James A. Baker (yep, Rice), and the IISS.
What was shocking, or maybe it should not have been, was that almost all the Arab participants were either directly or indirectly employees of two ruling houses of the Gulf monarchies who own these major media outlets. The Arab participants were from Alhayat (published in London and reportedly owned by Prince Khalid Bin Sultan al-Saud), Asharq Alawsat (published in London and reportedly co-owned by Prince Salman al-Saud), Alarabiya TV (Saudi but broadcasts from Dubai, and has the same ownership as Asharq Alawsat), and Aljazeera (Qatar, and owned by an al-Thani shaikh).Then there was James Abourezq and a couple of other people. The rest were all either full-time staff of these venerable organizations or regular columnists and commentators. No one else of the media anywhere in the vast Arab world was deemed to have anything to say about the important issue except for these three semi-state-owned organizations.
They talked about some general aspects of Arab media including, oddly, "how ownership of Arab outlets drives media agenda". But that is not what they really talked about: the topic was plainly open for everyone to see, in the participants to the conference. It is not clear who financed that conference.....but in this case I am a betting man.
It is noteworthy (an understatement) that many pan-Arab media outlets have been snapped up and are now owned by Saudi conglomerates, including all the satellite multi-channels operated by ART, MBC, Rotana, and LBC of Lebanon (control of LBC was purchased recently by Prince al-Waleed from another Saudi potentate). They also pull the strings of a few newspapers that tow the official Saudi line on all issues in other Gulf states, especially in Kuwait and Bahrain- no need to mention Lebanon here. Now if they can only make a deal with Mel Karmazin and manage to shut up Howard Stern.
Now that the pressures of the 'unifying' threat of an American attack have receded, Iran's Ahmadinejad is coming under intense fire at home, from both rival politicians and college students who normally have little love for the hardliners. This must be seen in the context of parliamentary elections next spring and presidential elections in 2009. It is possible that Ahmadinejad will be voted out of office just a few months after Bill Clinton moves back into the White House (if she wins he'll probably be confined to the Lincoln Bedroom at night).
BTW on Oil prices: whatever happened to threats and predictions about a year ago that Saudi Arabia would follow a strategy of increasing oil production in order to halve crude prices and apply pressure to the Iranian econmy? The threats were tied to increased Iranian influence in Iraq and were taken quite seriously in the West, although this site dismissed them at the time mainly because of doubts about production capacity and the budgetary, and internal political, impact on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers. We also speculated at the time that the thousands of princes would not stand for having less dinero and lowering their lifestyles. Oil prices have since increased by about 30% or so, depending on the base price used for calculation. Apparently the princely Samsons decided to keep the temple standing because they did not like losing all that dinero and incurring public ire.
To paraphrase a famous lame duck: If they really want to beat the troublemakers, they should keep on shopping.
Cheers
Mohammed
Friday, December 14, 2007
The Kuwaiti daily alwatan reports on its front page two days ago that US forces have been trying to draw Iran into a conflict by provocative flights and firing artillery across its border. Alwatan claims to have 'credible' reports form 'reliable' European diplomatic sources that the military option is not off the table, and that in fact Israel is slated to attack Iran, and that if Iran retaliates, then the US will side with Israel. The report claims that this plan aims to ease fears of Persian Gulf states that host American military facilities of Iranian retaliation and to limit the coming conflict to three sides: Iran-Israel-USA. (This is pure twisted Gulf logic: it still doesn't make sense to me, it will still have the US using its forces in the Gulf in a conflict and possibly drawing retaliation).
There is another serious problem with the report: its source, Alwatan is arguably the second least credible newspaper in Kuwait and perhaps the whole Gulf region, after alseyassah. Both tabloids have many times attributed wild reports to un-named "confidential and reliable" sources in the past, often with certain dates set for wars on Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, the al-Maliki government or all of the above. The owner/editor of one of these newspapers has been editorially kissing royal flanks so often that he can probably nose his way to Riyadh with his eyes closed, if you get my drift (he won't). So, this latest bit of wishful thinking can be safely relegated to the dustbin of journalism as well.
These people really had their heart set on another war- they really want their war, to be fought by the brave children of others, of course.
Saudi Arabia's foreign minister has publicly denied comments by Iraq's National Security Chief Muaffaq al-Rube'ie that Iran and Saudi Arabia are seeking to settle their own rivalries and disputes in Iraq. He also said that a Saudi embassy may open soon in Baghdad, which would be a first positive step in any effort to balance Iranian influence in Baghdad. Maybe the Arab governments are finally waking up.
In Iraq, in an important symbolic move, Arab media report that Ayatollah Sistani announced that the Eid Adha will be December 21st for Shi'as- except that the Iraqi government had already announced the Eid holiday to start on the 19th. Perhaps he was telling the bureaucrats that they should have left it to the Hawza to set the date. Still, the holiday can be started by the bureaucrats before the actual Eid itself on the 21st. There has been no confirmation of this yet in the Iraqi media.
Even as the Gulf seems to cool down, the Arab region is heating up again this week:
Bombings have picked up in intensity in Iraq, especially in the north and south (Al-Amarah).
Huge bombings in Algeria that killed UN and local personnel were attributed to al-Qaeda.
The general slated to head the Lebanese army was killed, among others, probably by a favorite Lebanese invention and wartime pastime, a car bomb. The current army chief looks set to become the new compromise president, if the two sides can agree on the shape of the new cabinet. Right now it looks like there will be no reconciliation unless Mr. Saniora leaves, but anything can happen in politics.
Clearly Lebanon needs a new covenant among its various factions: the old one has not worked, at least not for the past thirty five years as the demographics and political power have shifted.
Shifting the blame on the Nile: In Egypt a newly-wed groom failed to deflower his bride on their wedding night, a must if he is to have his breakfast of fool medammas the next morning. The man suspected that she was not a virgin, and stabbed her to death. The police decided to hold the husband, who has already confessed, for four days pending an investigation- it is not clear an investigation of what. In an earlier case, a man also killed his bride for the same reason: when medical tests showed that in fact she had been a virgin that man was sentenced to hard labor- but only after the medical test results....which means what it means.
Perhaps they should start Sex-Ed classes, for men only, in the New New Middle East?
Cheers
Mohammed
There is another serious problem with the report: its source, Alwatan is arguably the second least credible newspaper in Kuwait and perhaps the whole Gulf region, after alseyassah. Both tabloids have many times attributed wild reports to un-named "confidential and reliable" sources in the past, often with certain dates set for wars on Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, the al-Maliki government or all of the above. The owner/editor of one of these newspapers has been editorially kissing royal flanks so often that he can probably nose his way to Riyadh with his eyes closed, if you get my drift (he won't). So, this latest bit of wishful thinking can be safely relegated to the dustbin of journalism as well.
These people really had their heart set on another war- they really want their war, to be fought by the brave children of others, of course.
Saudi Arabia's foreign minister has publicly denied comments by Iraq's National Security Chief Muaffaq al-Rube'ie that Iran and Saudi Arabia are seeking to settle their own rivalries and disputes in Iraq. He also said that a Saudi embassy may open soon in Baghdad, which would be a first positive step in any effort to balance Iranian influence in Baghdad. Maybe the Arab governments are finally waking up.
In Iraq, in an important symbolic move, Arab media report that Ayatollah Sistani announced that the Eid Adha will be December 21st for Shi'as- except that the Iraqi government had already announced the Eid holiday to start on the 19th. Perhaps he was telling the bureaucrats that they should have left it to the Hawza to set the date. Still, the holiday can be started by the bureaucrats before the actual Eid itself on the 21st. There has been no confirmation of this yet in the Iraqi media.
Even as the Gulf seems to cool down, the Arab region is heating up again this week:
Bombings have picked up in intensity in Iraq, especially in the north and south (Al-Amarah).
Huge bombings in Algeria that killed UN and local personnel were attributed to al-Qaeda.
The general slated to head the Lebanese army was killed, among others, probably by a favorite Lebanese invention and wartime pastime, a car bomb. The current army chief looks set to become the new compromise president, if the two sides can agree on the shape of the new cabinet. Right now it looks like there will be no reconciliation unless Mr. Saniora leaves, but anything can happen in politics.
Clearly Lebanon needs a new covenant among its various factions: the old one has not worked, at least not for the past thirty five years as the demographics and political power have shifted.
Shifting the blame on the Nile: In Egypt a newly-wed groom failed to deflower his bride on their wedding night, a must if he is to have his breakfast of fool medammas the next morning. The man suspected that she was not a virgin, and stabbed her to death. The police decided to hold the husband, who has already confessed, for four days pending an investigation- it is not clear an investigation of what. In an earlier case, a man also killed his bride for the same reason: when medical tests showed that in fact she had been a virgin that man was sentenced to hard labor- but only after the medical test results....which means what it means.
Perhaps they should start Sex-Ed classes, for men only, in the New New Middle East?
Cheers
Mohammed
Friday, December 07, 2007
With one simple paragraph, the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) stole Christmas from the neocons in the administration and at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Until recent days, AEI 'experts' were on cable TV networks calling for a bombing campaign to start soon, before it was too late. The report vindicates a man much maligned in Washington, Mohammed El-Baradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency who stated recently that reports of Iranian weapons development are exaggerated- he was Blixed (as in Hans) by the neocons and the media.
Worse, the report vindicates none other than Vladimir Putin, who also stated that there was no evidence of such Iranian development. Now Mr. Cheney cannot dream of riding through the rugged Persian Plateau, with the secular (Muslim secular, not 'Christian' secular, which somehow makes it kosher) peasantry throwing wild flowers at his motorcade. It also comes on the heel of Iranian gestures toward the Arab GCC states, all U.S allies whose leaders are now left wondering who or what to believe.
One result of this new development is that the winds of war will quickly recede from the (Persian) Gulf region. Oil prices should at least stabilize at lower levels than $ 90. The Bush administration will not likely go out with a bang, as it had evidently wished. This will also reduce the chances of any stricter UN sanctions against Iran, Charles Krauthammer's wishful analysis notwithstanding. Another possible result will be within the Democratic Party. This reduces the 'wisdom' of Senator Hillary Clinton's vote to label Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist organization. It may have some ramifications in Iowa next month and beyond.
All this does not mean that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons in the future, it just makes it a less imminent threat. It also may only mean that the administration will shift gear and may focus on Iranian influence in Iraq as a casus belli, an issue that does not concern the international community.
Of Interest: The Egyptian Ministry of Awqaf (religious affairs) has issued a fatwa saying that anyone who dies of AIDS will be considered a martyr. It did not specify if they will be considered martyrs by the bureaucrats down here or by those up there, presumably by both. The justification is quite logical, based on repentance and forgiveness: those who die of HIV will have suffered so much and repented so much that they deserve to be considered martyrs. This is a surprisingly humane fatwa by Arab theological standards, even by some American 'Christian' standards.
Now it will be interesting to see what the Salafi Jihadists will do once they get wind of this new fatwa: will they switch away from blowing themselves up among Iraqi Shi'as (Shi'ites to most of you infidels) and instead espouse unsafe sex as a way to get there? Instead of slipping across the border into Iraq, will they head for the nearest unsafe outlets, say, Beirut or Dubai?
The most boring NFL games, are those of New England. The Patriots win so predictably and consistently that they have taken the excitement and fun out of a great game. I hope they don't make it to the Super Bowl, and that they lose it if they do. Nothing personal, but I hate shooting ducks in a fenced backyard.
Cheers
Mohammed
Worse, the report vindicates none other than Vladimir Putin, who also stated that there was no evidence of such Iranian development. Now Mr. Cheney cannot dream of riding through the rugged Persian Plateau, with the secular (Muslim secular, not 'Christian' secular, which somehow makes it kosher) peasantry throwing wild flowers at his motorcade. It also comes on the heel of Iranian gestures toward the Arab GCC states, all U.S allies whose leaders are now left wondering who or what to believe.
One result of this new development is that the winds of war will quickly recede from the (Persian) Gulf region. Oil prices should at least stabilize at lower levels than $ 90. The Bush administration will not likely go out with a bang, as it had evidently wished. This will also reduce the chances of any stricter UN sanctions against Iran, Charles Krauthammer's wishful analysis notwithstanding. Another possible result will be within the Democratic Party. This reduces the 'wisdom' of Senator Hillary Clinton's vote to label Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist organization. It may have some ramifications in Iowa next month and beyond.
All this does not mean that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons in the future, it just makes it a less imminent threat. It also may only mean that the administration will shift gear and may focus on Iranian influence in Iraq as a casus belli, an issue that does not concern the international community.
Of Interest: The Egyptian Ministry of Awqaf (religious affairs) has issued a fatwa saying that anyone who dies of AIDS will be considered a martyr. It did not specify if they will be considered martyrs by the bureaucrats down here or by those up there, presumably by both. The justification is quite logical, based on repentance and forgiveness: those who die of HIV will have suffered so much and repented so much that they deserve to be considered martyrs. This is a surprisingly humane fatwa by Arab theological standards, even by some American 'Christian' standards.
Now it will be interesting to see what the Salafi Jihadists will do once they get wind of this new fatwa: will they switch away from blowing themselves up among Iraqi Shi'as (Shi'ites to most of you infidels) and instead espouse unsafe sex as a way to get there? Instead of slipping across the border into Iraq, will they head for the nearest unsafe outlets, say, Beirut or Dubai?
The most boring NFL games, are those of New England. The Patriots win so predictably and consistently that they have taken the excitement and fun out of a great game. I hope they don't make it to the Super Bowl, and that they lose it if they do. Nothing personal, but I hate shooting ducks in a fenced backyard.
Cheers
Mohammed
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
In Doha, Iranian president Ahmadinejad proposed to the Arab GCC leaders a joint security agreement. He invited them to Tehran to discuss the matter. He also proposed an extensive array of deals, including an organization for economic cooperation. He also mentioned a proposal for 'clean family tourism', clearly emphasizing something quite different from the usual erotic tourism that Gulf men enjoy in places such as Beirut, Amman or Cairo. Ahmadinejad proposed that Iran provide the Gulf states with water and natural gas (Iran holds the second largest world reserves in natural gas). He did not mention anything about the GCC supplying Iran with much-needed refined products like gasoline which his country needs to import now because of poor refinery maintenance.
The media report that the leaders will approve a "Gulf Common Market", and that they will vote to keep the unified Gulf currency on track for 2010, and that whoever wishes and can will join the unified currency- which most likely will be somewhere between two countries or none. This is probably a way to save face for the finance and central bank officials who really botched the project. Doing the common market first makes sense. Doing a unified currency before a common market is like putting the cart before the horse: it makes no sense, if you have any sense to start with, that is. Maybe someone went back and read about the history of the Deutsche Zollverein and the European Union.....maybe.
In Sudan, the president of the republic (for the past 20+ years) has pardoned the well-meaning British teacher who named a teddy bear after me. Demonstrators in Khartoum, apparently having no other passtime on a slow Friday, had rioted for her to be put to death. Now, if she were a native or another African, or Arab....we would have a Saint Gillian (Gibbons). Well, she would have a different name.
Nawaz Sharif is back in Pakistan. Benazir Bhutto is back in Pakistan. General Musharraf is still in Pakistan. A gunfight at Islamabad Corral, and that's definitely not O.K, is looming, but who are the Earps and who are the Clantons here? It doesn't really matter.
The feudalist Sharif is favored by Saudi Arabia (it figures). The quasi-kleptocrat Bhutto is favored by Washington (and the UAE, if it matters). Oddly, the Generalissimo comes across as the least unsavory Pakistani politician around. Pakistan has always been ruled by military dictators and feudal landowners, occasionally behind a figleaf of Islam, the raison d'etre of the nation that was carved out of India at the end of the Raj. Had they stayed part of India, the Pakis would have remained a large and very influential minority in a democratic country. Quel dommage.
In Lebanon, the politicians and warlords (usually the same), have resorted again to the only 'national' institution in the country, the army. It looks like all will agree on the commander of the army, a general Michel Suleiman, to become the new president. They will need to change the constitution first to allow for that. In Venezuela yesterday the people voted in a referendum on a constitutional change, and the Chavez government lost the vote. In Lebanon they cannot put an amendment for a vote by the Lebanese people: there is no such thing as one Lebanese people anymore, not for the past year and a half. So, the warlords will decide the matter among the capos of the various 'families'.
Cheers
Mohammed
The media report that the leaders will approve a "Gulf Common Market", and that they will vote to keep the unified Gulf currency on track for 2010, and that whoever wishes and can will join the unified currency- which most likely will be somewhere between two countries or none. This is probably a way to save face for the finance and central bank officials who really botched the project. Doing the common market first makes sense. Doing a unified currency before a common market is like putting the cart before the horse: it makes no sense, if you have any sense to start with, that is. Maybe someone went back and read about the history of the Deutsche Zollverein and the European Union.....maybe.
In Sudan, the president of the republic (for the past 20+ years) has pardoned the well-meaning British teacher who named a teddy bear after me. Demonstrators in Khartoum, apparently having no other passtime on a slow Friday, had rioted for her to be put to death. Now, if she were a native or another African, or Arab....we would have a Saint Gillian (Gibbons). Well, she would have a different name.
Nawaz Sharif is back in Pakistan. Benazir Bhutto is back in Pakistan. General Musharraf is still in Pakistan. A gunfight at Islamabad Corral, and that's definitely not O.K, is looming, but who are the Earps and who are the Clantons here? It doesn't really matter.
The feudalist Sharif is favored by Saudi Arabia (it figures). The quasi-kleptocrat Bhutto is favored by Washington (and the UAE, if it matters). Oddly, the Generalissimo comes across as the least unsavory Pakistani politician around. Pakistan has always been ruled by military dictators and feudal landowners, occasionally behind a figleaf of Islam, the raison d'etre of the nation that was carved out of India at the end of the Raj. Had they stayed part of India, the Pakis would have remained a large and very influential minority in a democratic country. Quel dommage.
In Lebanon, the politicians and warlords (usually the same), have resorted again to the only 'national' institution in the country, the army. It looks like all will agree on the commander of the army, a general Michel Suleiman, to become the new president. They will need to change the constitution first to allow for that. In Venezuela yesterday the people voted in a referendum on a constitutional change, and the Chavez government lost the vote. In Lebanon they cannot put an amendment for a vote by the Lebanese people: there is no such thing as one Lebanese people anymore, not for the past year and a half. So, the warlords will decide the matter among the capos of the various 'families'.
Cheers
Mohammed
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
In Saudi Arabia, a young women (19) was punished, again, last week for being kidnapped and raped by seven men in the Eastern Province Shi'a (Shi'ite) town of al-Qateef. Initially a court sentenced the victim to 90 lashed plus time in prison, while the rapists got light jail terms (harsh Islamic law stipulates death sentences for rape). Later, the Higher Judicial Council ordered a retrial and revised the sentence to 200 lashes for the woman- I guess that this should be enough to whitttle her down to the bare bone level, with most of the flesh and gore gone. The men got jail terms of between 2 to 9 years. The victim's laywer, a Mr. al-Lahim, was punished as well: he was barred form pursuing the case and his law license was withdrawn. Alarabiya TV's website to its credit, covered the incident and the intial sentences.
Reports (AFP) claims that the raped woman is of the Shi'a minority sect, while the seven rapists are Sunnis- alles klar?
According to Human Rights Watch: "The young woman, who is married, said she had met with a male acquaintance who had promised to give her back an old photograph of herself. After she met her acquaintance in his car in Qatif, a gang of seven men then attacked and raped both of them, multiple times. Despite the prosecution’s requests for the maximum penalty for the rapists, the Qatif court sentenced four of them to between one and five years in prison and between 80 and 1,000 lashes. They were convicted of kidnapping, apparently because prosecutors could not prove rape (this time the Saudi investigators could not obtain their normally easily obtained confessions). The judges reportedly ignored evidence from a mobile phone video in which the attackers recorded the assault." HRW notes that the harsher new sentence for the victim was a result of the woman speaking out to Human Rights staff about what she considered an injustice. It hints that the woman insisted on pursuing the case, and hence drew the anger of the court. (Are there such cases, then, where the victims do not insist in pursuing and never draw the anger of a bigoted court?)
According to HRW: "There is currently no rule of law in Saudi Arabia, which does not have a written penal code. Judges do not follow procedural rules and issue arbitrary sentences that vary widely. Often, judges do not provide written verdicts, even in death penalty cases."
No indication yet if the departure of Karen Hughes from the Arab scene in the New New Middle East had anything to do with the new harsher sentence for the victim.
Cheers
Mohammed
Reports (AFP) claims that the raped woman is of the Shi'a minority sect, while the seven rapists are Sunnis- alles klar?
According to Human Rights Watch: "The young woman, who is married, said she had met with a male acquaintance who had promised to give her back an old photograph of herself. After she met her acquaintance in his car in Qatif, a gang of seven men then attacked and raped both of them, multiple times. Despite the prosecution’s requests for the maximum penalty for the rapists, the Qatif court sentenced four of them to between one and five years in prison and between 80 and 1,000 lashes. They were convicted of kidnapping, apparently because prosecutors could not prove rape (this time the Saudi investigators could not obtain their normally easily obtained confessions). The judges reportedly ignored evidence from a mobile phone video in which the attackers recorded the assault." HRW notes that the harsher new sentence for the victim was a result of the woman speaking out to Human Rights staff about what she considered an injustice. It hints that the woman insisted on pursuing the case, and hence drew the anger of the court. (Are there such cases, then, where the victims do not insist in pursuing and never draw the anger of a bigoted court?)
According to HRW: "There is currently no rule of law in Saudi Arabia, which does not have a written penal code. Judges do not follow procedural rules and issue arbitrary sentences that vary widely. Often, judges do not provide written verdicts, even in death penalty cases."
No indication yet if the departure of Karen Hughes from the Arab scene in the New New Middle East had anything to do with the new harsher sentence for the victim.
Cheers
Mohammed
Thursday, November 08, 2007
"Yes; M. Danglars is a money-lover, and those who love money, you know, think too much of what they risk to be easily induced to fight a duel." Alexandre Dumas, Le Comte de Monte Cristo
Saudi Deputy Defense Minister, acronym SDDM, Prince Abdulrahman Bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, has called on Gulf GCC countries to prepare their armies to face threats, presumably external threats. He added that these states must coordinate and cooperate in defense matters. What have they been doing all these years in the tough neghborhood? After all these years, and, more telling, after tons of billions of weapons purchases and billions of commissions paid to local potentates?
Riyadh-Beirut: The Arab Thought Institute, there really is such an intitute, is headed by Prince Khaled Bin Faisal al-Saud- makes sense, who else can head a creativity institute in the Arab world but a prince who needs a job? It has issued a press release that it does not like being ignored, and that it has decided to take a huge step by sponsoring and encouraging Arab creativity in all fields and activities, based on subjective criteria, according to a statement published in the Saudi Elaph website. The fields of interest include: science, literature, art, economics, technology, sociology, media- sorcery is not included. Great, the wait is over, Godot has finally arrived- now we can expect to see a burst of creative activity across the Arab world, and in due time a slew of Arab Nobel laureates surrounded by a gaggle of beaming royal princes with deep pockets and sticky fingers.
Amendment: Elaph, published in London but owned by a Saudi potentate, has shyly announced that it has just won the creativity award from the above institute, for, what else, media creativity. Now that is creative intellectual incest.
Cheers
Mohammed
Saudi Deputy Defense Minister, acronym SDDM, Prince Abdulrahman Bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, has called on Gulf GCC countries to prepare their armies to face threats, presumably external threats. He added that these states must coordinate and cooperate in defense matters. What have they been doing all these years in the tough neghborhood? After all these years, and, more telling, after tons of billions of weapons purchases and billions of commissions paid to local potentates?
Riyadh-Beirut: The Arab Thought Institute, there really is such an intitute, is headed by Prince Khaled Bin Faisal al-Saud- makes sense, who else can head a creativity institute in the Arab world but a prince who needs a job? It has issued a press release that it does not like being ignored, and that it has decided to take a huge step by sponsoring and encouraging Arab creativity in all fields and activities, based on subjective criteria, according to a statement published in the Saudi Elaph website. The fields of interest include: science, literature, art, economics, technology, sociology, media- sorcery is not included. Great, the wait is over, Godot has finally arrived- now we can expect to see a burst of creative activity across the Arab world, and in due time a slew of Arab Nobel laureates surrounded by a gaggle of beaming royal princes with deep pockets and sticky fingers.
Amendment: Elaph, published in London but owned by a Saudi potentate, has shyly announced that it has just won the creativity award from the above institute, for, what else, media creativity. Now that is creative intellectual incest.
Cheers
Mohammed
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