Iraq Coup Rumor, Arab Confusion, Echoes of Saigon '63 and Tehran '53

Middle East Analysis

The London based Al-quds Al-arabi (a.k.a Arab Jerusalem) claims (5/2/06) that the United States is planning a military coup in Iraq to be followed by the formation of a Junta composed of a gaggle of Sunni generals and some Shi’as. The Sunni generals, it claims will be mostly from the Saddam era, some of whom had high-tailed it to London (in anticipation of just such a moment) as the Ba’athist ship was sinking. It claims that the Kurds have given their blessing to this plan. The newspaper has been a strong opponent of the US invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.
Echoes of South Vietnam circa 1963 here, including the sectarian angle- the Diem brothers, and especially Madame Nhu, were Catholics. That coup, of course, was a harbinger, the first inkling that the South Vietnamese could not manage to run the country.
Clearly these rumors are a creation of the Arab mind-set, for we who grew up in the Middle East have been conditioned to wait for a 'Brown Knight' riding an imported tank at dawn. When the political process gets to be frustrating, we are supposed to wait for the men with the guns to end the whole political process.

There has been more talk of Mr Ayad Allawi and his quest for a government of national salvation (or is it political salvation?). Allawi is being touted as a moderate, which he is, who can bring all factions together. There is one problem with Mr. Allawi, he does not have the people behind him, as the past elections have shown. But then again, nor do the generals presumably lurking in the shadows.(Echoes of Tehran, Operation Ajax, circa 1953, here?).

The same newspaper also talks (5/3/06) about the torture and death in prison a former Iraqi Ba’athist Prime Minister. It claims that public opinion in the US is outraged about this new scandal. Odd- I have seen nothing about it in the US media. Not even the New York Times seems to know, or is outraged, about it. Perhaps it is too early.

Al-Ja’afari is out, now Al-Malki is the focus of attacks in the Arab media. And they don’t even have an election this year, if ever.

In Egypt, it looks like the terror bombings were a godsend to embattled President Husni Mubarak, who eagerly extended the State of Emergency in place since the assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1981. Imagine, 25 years of emergency rule- a whole generation growing up knowing nothing but emergency.

On a lighter note, perhaps, Asharq Alawsat (5/3/06), more conservative and also more balanced but also London-based, claims that a buried ancient city has been discovered in Saudi Arabia. They are working to unearth it. Great, then they can go right back and bulldoze it over, if the past is any guide in monument-phobic Saudi Arabia.

Cheers
Mohammed