The Iranian Front, Iraq's Flag, Russia and the Salafis

Analysis and Comment

The Iranian Front:
Alarabiya TV quotes the British media that Israel has appointed a General to lead a newly-created unit for an 'Iranian Front'. The station quotes some experts as saying that Israel now considers Iran its 'main strategic enemy'. The report also claims that Israel feels that it now has the last two years of the Bush administration to do something about Iran- either unilaterally or perhaps in cooperation with the US.
I believe it is highly unlikely that Israel will take any action, if it intends to, against Iran without cooperation from the United States. The United States is now effectively the master and gatekeepr of the Arab World- American power now controls all the skies, the seas, and the landmass of the Middle East, with the exception of Iran. Israel's air force must pass through 'American territory' to get across the Persian Gulf or the Zagross Mountains.

For all the commentary and analyses about the blunders of the Bush administration in the Arab World, starting with Iraq and neglect of the Palestine issue, it now looks like the United States is more in control of the Arab World than ever before. Even the British in their imeperial days had to share power with the French and some independent local dynasties in Iran, Saudi Arabia and even North Yemen. No power has ever had so much control of the area to the east and south of the Mediterranean, not since the Roman Empire. The only attempt to challenge this Pax Americana seems to come from Iran, the same source of the major challenge to the Roman hegemony two millennia ago. Right now it does not look like this challenge will have any better luck than the ancient one. For one, the packaging is not very attractive, and the substance within the package is probably not acceptable to many people in the region.

Talks in Lebanon:
In Lebanon, the UN's Kofi Annan confirms reports aired days ago on the Arabic Aljazeera TV of indirect negotiations between Israel and Hizballah for an exchange of prisoners. The Saudi-owned Alarabiya TV reports, somewhat gleefully, that Qatar Air will be the first air carrier to fly directly to Beirut without stopping in Amman for inspections by Jordanian security on behalf of Israel. It also claims that Qatar has made the special arrangements directly with Israel. So far Qatar is the only Persian Gulf country which has an Israeli representative office in its capital, something that will likely expand to include a couple of others, probably UAE and Oman. within the GCC Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain are more problematic in this regard- they are shy and reticent for political reasons and will take many more years.

Kurdish vs Baathist Flag:
In Iraq, the issue of lowering and banishing the old Baath flag in Kurdistan is escalating for now, but will most likely fizzle to nothing. The PM, Al-malki has said that the national flag should be raised all over the country. Sunni politicians threaten to start a political campaign aimed at keeping the flag which still seems to carry Saddam Hussein's handwriting. The Kurds claim they willl be happy to raise the very first republican Iraqi flag on national occasions- that was the flag that preceded the first Baath coup in 1963. The Sunnis have a strong attachment to the Baath flag, because it plays to their own and the country's once-strong pan-Arab orientation when they controlled Iraq for decades. In the end the Kurds will win the argument since the Iraqi Constitution stipulates a new national flag. Besides, the opponents have no leverage.

Gulf Fundamentalists and Russia:
Russia has listed two major Kuwaiti non-profit organizations as terrorist organizations. One is the Jamiyat el-Islah, the Social Reform Society (aka the local Moslem Brotherhood), the other one is even more problematic, it is the Islamic Heritage Revival Society (aka Salafis). The latter was the local cheerleader for the Taliban before 9/11. The Russians clearly at the least suspect their involvement in financing the troubles in Chechnya. These two organizations are the strongest political 'parties' in Kuwait because they were the only ones that were allowed to operate freely during the 1970s and 1980s. They have several members in the cabinet.
The U.S. Treasury Department has in the past designated the Pakistani and Afghan branches of the Islamic Heritage Revival Society (the Salaf of Kuwait) as terrorist networks.

Cheers,
Mohammed