Iraq and Democrats, Persian Gulf Fences, Mideast Molotov

Democrats and the War:
The Democratic control of both houses of Congress will mean a gradually reduced role for the Unites States in Iraq. It will also mean that the likelihood of war with Iran has receded even farther. That war was always an extremely remote possibility, the warmongering noises among some of the Persian Gulf media notwithstanding. One Kuwaiti tabloid, Alseyassah, claimed somewhat hopefully on its front page on Thursday that the United States has made a decision to attack Iran- it did not make clear if the decision was post-Rumsfeld's resignation or ante the same.
There is still the likelihood of economic sanctions and even a much less likely blockade. The longest example of economic sanctions in our time has clearly failed to achieve its targets: the U.S sanctions aginst Cuba, which did not weaken Castro. The main effect of the U.S sanctions on Cuba has been to transform Miami and make it a more diversified, more lively place. It also acquainted us with the probably exaggerated discreet charms of the Marielitos, thanks to Jimmy Carter's ill-advised throwing of verbal gauntlets and Castro's penchant for practical jokes. Castro has been in power for 48 years under sanctions. Saddam Hussein under sanctions would have died in office, and succeeded by one of his sons or a crony.

Iran's Nuclear Issue:
Iran's Ahmadinejad stated yesterday that his country will be 'fully nuclear' within a few months, whatever that means. The assertion quickly shifted some of the attention in Washington away from politics and toward the Middle East, mainly the Persian Gulf region, particularly across the Shatt al-Arab waterway. Oil prices rose today since his statement reminded traders of economic sanctions and a possible oil supply cutoff, and also because data showed that U.S fuel inventories fell. Now the ball is in Kim Jong Il's court again: he surely will feel the need to make a statement of some kind to reclaim world attention that was righfully his before the little Iranian upstart hit the world stage.

Good Fences and Good Neighbors in the Gulf:
Saudi Interior Minister Prince Nayef said that his country will start building its security fence along the border with Iraq next year. It will stretch about 900 kilometers and is aimed at 'keeping Islamic extremists from entering Saudi Arabia'. Perhaps it will also work the other way, keeping Jihadist terrorists and, more important, the oil money from flowing into Iraq and strenghtening the terrorists?
The wall is part of a $12 billion plan that will take up to six years to finish, and is expected to secure the border. The Kingdom is clearly worried about the potential of a civil war in Iraq and possible spillover across the border. I wonder who will get this lucrative building contract and, more important in good Persian Gulf tradition, which potentate is their local representative/agent/dealer?
And to think that Saudi Arabia signed a non-aggression pact with Iraq early in 1990- but then so did Stalin sign a non-aggression pact with Hitler- ok, Ribbentrop-Molotov get the credit for that one. In those same days Egypt-Jordan-Yemen were talked into entering an alliance dominated by Saddam- basically an alliance of Arab have-nots.

Others are now toying with the idea of security fences also, including little Kuwait which has been a target of aggressive moves by various Iraqi regimes since before its independence. The last time was when the Ba'ath claimed that it wanted to 'liberate' Jerusalem via Kuwait in 1990- the rest of that is history that is still unfolding in a bloody fashion.
(It also looks like the idea of a U.S-Mexico fence is dead now, if it ever had a chance: remember, the Maginot Line never lived up to its billing, nor did the Bar-Lev line).

Lebanon:
Lebanon is two opposing camps again, with Amal and Hizbullah (both Shi'a) , the President of the Republic (Christian), the Speaker of Parliament, General Michele Oun (Christian) and a few other smaller groups one one side. Most other political parties are on the other side. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and President Emile Lahoud have both called the cabinet now unconstitutional. Unfortunately for the country, given that the Shi'as form the largest group, probably after the Maronites, it looks like there will be either a new Prime Minister or a de facto internal cantonization. Not a good situation for the international peace-keeping forces to find themselves in right now.

Cheers
Mohammed