How has the Bush administration empowered OPEC?
Ex-oilmen and high crude prices.
Causality between Mideast visits and oil prices.
Bush and Iran's Nukes: will the mullahs retain Alan Dershowitz?
Shi'a fundamentalism vs. Bible Belt Sunni fundamentalism.
A new positive church-mosque debate in Arabia.
Finally, did McCain really mix up a Jewish holiday with Halloween?
Wasn't it bad enough mixing al-Qaeda with al-Sadr?

Who Empowered OPEC?
Robert Samuelson notes in Newsweek that OPEC has finally reached the point where it controls the crude oil market. It is official, it is now a true blue cartel, perhaps for the first time.

I find it interesting that it has taken a Republican administration run by two ex-oilmen obsessed with national security to finally consolidate the cartel's control- to finally empower all those in power in Tehran, Riyadh and Caracas. A long 34 years after Kissinger's IEA (International Energy Agency). This is a feat even Jimmy Carter could not achieve, blunder as he may on energy matters.
Maybe oil is thicker than blood to the ex-oilmen: the blood that has already been spilt and the blood of those soldiers in harm's way.

It has also taken the same two ex-oilmen riding out from the West to empower Iran's rulers, financially and, as a natural consequence, politically. Iran's daily crude production is at well over 4 million b/d. The prices it receives for the high levels of export are also at historically high levels, at least in nominal terms. Its influence across the Middle East has never been stronger in the past three centuries. As I wrote here many months ago, the old Saudi threat to drown the markets with crude in order to cause a price collapse and weaken the ruling mullahs was just frustrated talk.
Maybe the ex-oilmen had looked into the eyes of Hugo Chaves and the others, the moderate neo-domocrats (small D) of the New Middle East, and had seen through into their souls, and seen the kindred souls, or is it spirits, of fellow oilmen.

Paranoia time:
One more, odd, observation and it is highly suspicious. Last January Mr. Bush made a much publicized tour of the moderate New Middle East, a near-victory lap. No sooner had the potentates sheathed their dancing swords and waved goodbye to their guest than oil prices started to move up again, to new highs.

This week Mr. Cheney has been visiting the moderate New Middle East, including Riyadh although he will not do the 'omrah pilgrimage to Hijazz- he'll stick to Najd, where they have no oil but get all the money from it, where they have no holy shrines but oversee them. Oil prices have moved decisively over $ 100 per barrel since he started his trip. By the time Cheney leaves, prices will remain fairly within their recent historically high range: somewhere between $95 and $111. It is enough to make both the Prez and the Veep eager for Januray 21st, when they can ride into the sunset, deep into Speechland in Petroland.

Am I seeing things (that are not there)? Should I try a regression analysis to establish significant causality before making such observations?

Maybe both leaders would have been better off visiting Caracas and Tehran: maybe then oil prices would not have risen as much.

Bush, Iran and Nukes:
"Iran has declared they want a nuclear weapon to destroy people."
George W. Bush: Radio Farda Mach 19, 2008

I would like to see a copy of that Iranian declaration Mr. Bush refers to.
So would Mr. Cheney in preparation for his next Fox News interview.
So would White House spokesperson Dana Perrino before meeting the sharks in the press room.
So would representatives of all permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.
It is possible, nay very likely, that Iran is aiming at a nuclear weapon- but would they be foolish enough to declare it in this fashion?

Fortunately for the president, the ruling mullahs are not litigious, or maybe they are not into lawsuits just right now. Or maybe some of them are already perusing legalzoom. Or maybe they are already calling to retain Alan Dershowitz.
Or maybe the Iranian regime worries that litigation will lead to more intrusive inspections of their nuclear program.

Or maybe Mr. Bush has looked into Ahmadinejad's eyes, on HD television of course, and seen through into his fellow fundamentalist soul (Shi'a fundamentalist not Bible Belt Sunni fundamentalist) , a la Putin and all the neo-democrats of the moderate New Middle East.

Church and Mosque Controversy:
A Vatican representative had mischievously noted that perhaps churches will be allowed sometime soon in Saudi Arabia. That was in the context of opening the first Church in Qatar recently. He had noted that there are some 4-5 millions Christians in Saudi Arabia. That is true, a big percentage of the millions of foreign labor are Christians from Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas. That is a fact that tends to be ignored, conveniently, by Saudi officials and their surrogates.

The reaction was swift. Most Saudi shaikhs and others of influence categorically reject the idea of churches in their country. ( How about Christmas trees? At least give amnesty to Rudolph, legalize him). Someone mentioned that perhaps that can b tied to a Vatican recognition of the Prophet Mohammed (presumably as a messenger of God). But that would automatically mean conversion to Islam, even if they do not fast or pray. (Jews who two millennia ago accepted Christ ended up being called 'Christians', they are Jews no more, n'est-ce pas?).

Still, this is an intriguing debate that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. Clearly there is some positive change in the Arabian air: merely talking the talk makes it so much easier later on to walk the walk. Is this a hallmark of the moderate New Middle East? Is the debate part of its famous birth pangs? Probably not: radical Old Middle East countries, ogres like Iran and Syria have always allowed churches, and some synagogues, they still do. Oh no, did I just say synagogues and Riyadh in the same paragraph?

The National Security Candidate:
Finally, did McCain really mix up a Jewish holiday with Halloween?
Wasn't it bad enough mixing al-Qaeda with al-Sadr?
Or mixing Shi'as with Sunnis?

Cheers
Mohammed