Gulf Finance & Politics, Rafsanjani's Last Tango, Dysfunctional Iraq

GCC Finance & Politics:
A report by the Dubai National Bank warns of a looming serious debt crisis for the middle classes in the Gulf oil states- that would be a serious problem of non-performing loans for the region’s banks. The Kuwaiti banking system went through two such crises, mostly related to stock market speculation and crashes, and the government had to step in and bail out the banks through bailing out the individual and corporate debtors. The Kuwait government had to bail out the banks during 1970s, and again during the 1980s when it ended up owning controlling shares of most of the companies in the country. It had to step in again after the Iraqi invasion in 1990-1991. In a phrase that is purely deja vue, the Dubai report warns that the quality of bank assets in the GCC, including the UAE, could deteriorate noticeably by 2007 or 2008. As asset prices have declined, many borrowers may be unable to pay off their loans, which would put severe pressure on the banks’ loan provisions.

The media in Kuwait is already talking about the specter of a new stock market crisis, as the losses of the local investment companies in the stock market have reached near one billion Kuwaiti Dinar this year (Alqabas: 10/28/06). The front page of Alwatan, whose owners may have their own axe to grind in personal disputes with a major merchant family that also operates the rival Alqabas newspaper, has compared the current situation to a new 'Manakh crisis'- that was when the market crashed in 1982 (Alwatan: October 28). This is part of an ongoing rivalry and political dispute between various political and financial heavy-weights in Kuwait. This dispute dates back to political disagreements and some major financial scandals extending from the early 1980s through the early 1990s, involving the ministries of Finance and Oil.

In Saudi Arabia, the stock exchange will start a new system of one-session trading every day. Under the old system there were two trading sessions each day: one in the morning and one in the evening. This is seen by some as one way to reduce the level of speculation and trading losses by inexperienced civil servants and students who spent their evenings trading (there are not many other known evening diversions in Saudi Arabia). One very likely result of the change would be for government civil servants to skip some work hours during the day and head for the market- this in itself might actually improve the performance of the state bureaucracy by keeping some of them away from their offices.

Meanwhile, the media war continues between Saudi Arabian outlets and little neighboring Qatar, but it is mostly a one-sided war, initiated by the Saudis against Qatar and her policies. Qatar has been the maverick of the Persian Gulf region for some years now, as well as a thorn in the side of the Saudi government. It is hard to classify the country other than a maverick because it has for years rejected the Saudi claim and obvious sense of entitlement to leadership of the GCC. It is home to the most popular and most controversial Arab TV station, Aljazeera, as well as home of the US Central Command regional HQ. It probably has the largest natural gas reserves among Arab countries. It also has the only Israeli 'trade' office in Doha, and Israeli foreign minister Tsipi Livni will make her first visit of the Gulf to Doha next week. Qatar is sort of like France was under General De Gaulle, independent but keeping one foot in the alliance. In fact it is like France is today under whoever occupies the Elysee Palace.

Iran Accused in Argentina:
Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, former Iranian President and still an influential figure in the clerical regime, is in some trouble- or he can be if he ever leaves Iran to travel to the West. The degree of trouble he will be in varies directly with how close he gets to Argentina- if he ever sets foot in Buenos Aires he will be up the proverbial fecal creek. Two Argentine prosecutors have asked that Rafsanjani and other Iranian officials be arrested for a bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires in 1994 that killed 85 people. At the time Rafsanjani was president of Iran. The prosecutors claim that the Iranians recruited Hizballah to do the job. Hizballah does not normally have a geographic interest beyond Lebanon and Israel. In any case, it looks like no more tangos for that ayatollah.

Iraq Dysfunctional:
Muqtada al-Sadr has warned against violence committed by some renegades among his followers, and said that the incidents that occurred between some of his followers and the government forces were the result of ‘disobedience of orders’.

In an interview with Reuters, P.M. al-Maliki of Iraq discounted reports that the US was considering replacing him, and said that would be against the stated American goal of allowing Iraqis the 'freedom of choice'. He also complained that: “As Prime Minister I am the Commander in Chief or the armed forces, but I cannot move a single brigade without getting approval from the Coalition (U.S) because of United Nations authorization (?)” He also said he approves of the attempt to arrest the Sadrist leader Abu Dir’a who was responsible for some sectarian killings, but he objected to the violent method used because it could lead to undoing a compromise reached with al-Sadr.

Northern Iraq should heat up within the next few months. Already the Sunni Fundies have declared it part of their Emirate (apparently they need some oil fields to make it look like a real Arab Emirate). The Kurds and others are bracing for a referendum in December 2007 on whether Kirkuk will join the Kurdish autonomous region- right now it looks like it will vote to join Kurdistan. The Fundies in al-Anbar are certain to escalate and shift some of their efforts north, since they will want to preserve their declared Emirate intact. The Kurds already have some problems with the central government over their oil contracts.
Cheers
Mohammed

Iraq Coup Rumor, Proselytizing Shi'as, Worried Wahabis

Rumors of a Tabloid Coup:
A Kuwaiti tabloid, alseyassah, claimed again Tuesday that 'reliable Iraqi and Arab sources' (oxymoron?) have revealed to it that the United States and Gulf GCC countries are coordinating toward a military coup that would overthrow the elected Iraqi government. Al-Siyassah, close to some fringe elements in the country's political circles, is not known for its reliable reporting. The tabloid claims that the Ba'ath Party has been contacted through Arab governments and offered a role in the new Iraqi regime. The report claims that the coup will be a joint American-Iraqi effort that would lead to dissolving the parliament and suspending the constitution- and no more New Middle East, birth pangs and all. The paper claims that the governments of Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have been consulted- not a very good way to keep such a secret plot....secret. Three generals a Sunni, a Shi'a, and a Kurd (cute) are slated to run the country.
Versions of this plan have been repeated in the same newpaper in different forms over the past three months- it is noteworthy that few other media outlets have treated these reports seriously. Apparently the authorities in the four accused Arab countries do not take this report seriously enough to deny it- perhaps they are not good at dissembling.

The Saudi Drums of Sectarianism:
The tightly-controlled Saudi media continues to beat the drums of sectarian conflict in the Arab World. They are now talking as if Iraq is already a lost cause, taken over by Shi'ism and Kurds. They seem to be worried about holding the next line of defense, wherever that might be.
London-based Saudi daily Asharqalawsat reports in a column by an editor of Alarabiya TV, also Saudi-owned, about the dangers posed by the spread of Shi'ism in the Arab World. The report claims that even the Moslem Brotherhood, long nursed by the Saudis in the days when Nasser of Egypt was persecuting the fundamentalist group, has been infiltrated by Shi'ism. The report complains that some venerable Egyptisn media outlets have also been infiltrated by Shi'ism. It is beginning to sound like The Invasion of The Body Snatchers all over again, the older b/w version. The writer argues that this proselytizing is dangerous and unacceptable for some vague reason. Interesting insight. Then again, if this is the case......what about Riyadh? Will we see Shi'a houses of worship as well as churches and synogagues in Riyadh soon? Will we still continue to see Wahabi mosques built in Europe and America, and new converts?

A high-ranking Saudi theologian and thinker, a paid official of the state (they all are), a Sheikh Dr. Salman al-Ouda (aka Suleiman or just plain Shlomo) has warned of the spread of Shi'ism in mainly Sunni Arab countries.
( Sheikh Dr. Ouda the cheerful chap in the pic)

He has said that this is a dangerous phenomenon that is unacceptable (mass lobotomy may be in order here) and that it has spread through some dastardly sneaky methods, including financial incentives. He also told Aljazeera TV that the American occupiers have used the Shi'as in Iraq to destroy the Sunnis, and that they, the Americans, are now trying to create conflict among the people. He also condemned the spread of Shi'a mosques and Husseiniyah houses of worship in many countries like Syria and Palestine. The sheikh did not, however, claim that children's blood are being drunk in secret rites or that water wells are being poisoned- not yet, but stay tuned.

Unrepentant Hamas and Iran Echo Each Other in the Wilderness:
Hamas Foreign Minister has finally settled all doubts about the possibility of peace. He repeated the hardline position of Iran's Ahmadinejad, that Israel is an 'alien body' in the Middle East, claiming that it has no religious, cultural, or historical legitimacy. He claimed that his group seeks a Palestine that will spread from the 'Mediterranean to the River Jordan'. This will definitely not endear him to most of the world, but perhaps it will win him the next elections that are now looming- he is lucky that the 5-6 million Jews of the area he claims will not be voting in the next Palestinian elections. Perhaps he sees the writing on the wall and has decided to go down fighting.
Ahmadinejad had delivered his newest anti-Israeli wisdom after a long silence while world attention was focused on petulant little Kim Jong Il. Perhaps he missed the limelight of his days in New York. But the Iranian president is a close second to Kim, and trying hard, literally coming in from the outside. Yesterday he claimed that his country has increased her nuclear 'capability' tenfold within the past year. His problem, and that of Iran, is that his country is not stuck somewhere on the northeastern edges of Asia. It is in the middle of the world's main supply of petroleum.

New News:
Israel has announced that Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni will visit Doha to attend a conference on democracy. This is quite a development in the Gulf region, and it is a sign of the times that it does not to shock anyone. Perhaps Sheikh Dr. al-Ouda in nearby Riyadh (the pic above) will agree to see her.
Cheers
Mohammed

Sitting Ducks in Iraq, Saudi Succession, and How to Marry a Genie

Iraq Turns Grimmer:
Looks like it is time for someone to finally crack down in Iraq. This week al-Qaeda terrorists have paraded in Ramadi and other towns west and north of Baghdad, while the Sadrist Mahdi militias took over al-Amarah for a while. This is no good. Even in Vietnam, during thr worst days, militias could not parade with impunity in the cities- with the exception of the Tet Offensive- but at the time they did not parade, they fought and got salughtered, and still inched closer to winning the war.

Iraq will never stabilize as long as its government has no authority on the streets. This must be the message of General Abizaid's return to Washington yesterday. But this does not require a trip back to DC, so there must be something big afoot to resolve the security issue quickly. Otherwise there is no sense for the coalition troops to remain as sitting ducks, albeit well-armed sitting ducks, between warring sectarian factions. It is clear now that this is a war that is truly being fought in a half-assed fashion. Doing it this way only emboldens the enemies and sends a terrible message about American resolve to the peoples of the Middle East.
Perhaps later in November, after the political process has played out, when the only remaining unfinished things are the things that really matter.....

A meeting sponsored by the Orqanization of Islamic Conference (OIC) in Mecca has apparently reached agreement on an 'Accord' to stop the bloodshed and sectarian tensions in Iraq. The problem with this conference is that the main sources of bloodshed and sectarian conflict are not represented: Al-Qaeda, the Ba'ath, and Al-Sadr's Mahdi militias have not attended. The Sunni clans are still not convinced that they have lost their political supremacy- otehrwise they would eagerly accept federalism and autonomy. Ayatollah al-Sistani has not attended or sent a representative although he approved of the meeting. That could be because he is not part to any sectarian conflict or because he does not think the agreement will amount to a proverbial American hill of beans on the ground where it matters. If it is the latter then al-Sistani is absolutely right.

Saudi Arabia:
The Saudi ruling family is preparing for the inevitable. The King has issued a royal decree forming Hei'at al-Bei'a, or the Committee of Allegiance (as in pledging allegiance) for the selection of the Heir to the Throne in the future. That is, for the time after the direct sons of King Abulaziz Ibn Saud die off. They foresee, rightly, the possibility of rivalry and conflict within the family once the first line of heirs die off, something that has happened within other extended ruling families in the GCC. The commitee is composed of princes from the family.

Saudi Arabia-The Lighter Side:
Alarabiya TV reports that a Saudi businessman from Jeddah, that would be the Manhattan of Saudi Arabia, fell for a clever trickster. The man was promised an arranged marriage to a daughter of the King of the Jinns- that would be an actual flesh and blood King of all the jinns not Elvis from beyond. This man was clearly more interested in flesh than blood for he paid more than one million Saudi Riyals as dowry and finder's fees. He paid dearly for the chance of coupling with a princess of n-dimensions (n>3) or perhaps no dimensions (n=0). But he was also told that she would help him make over one billion during the first week of the homeymoon (did not disclose the location of the honeymoon). He was promised about ten billion within the first year.
Saudi media report a marked increase in these unusual cases of fraud and scams in recent months. A sociologist attributes this phenomenon to increased unemployment and the pervasive mentality of making a fast buck (that would be making a fast Riyal in this case). He also noted that many of the gangs that practice this type of fraud originate in Africa for some reason. Still, it takes two and there is one born every....

Cheers
Mohammed

Terrorism, The NFL and Microbrews

The Department of Homeland Security has notified the NFL of terrorist threats that are called 'not credible'. The purported threats involve dirty bombs at 7 venues where football games will be played next Sunday. Al-Qaeda and its affiliates are probably the only group that would contemplate such acts, and they are not the type that would give false warning, or any advance warning. They would rather have the 'events' speak for themselves. Besides Wolf Blitzer did not look like his hair was on fire when he delivered the news. So, this is most likely a concocted attempt to disrupt the games. Maybe some fundamentalist (not of the Moslem variety) would like all the hipflasks that keep people warm, up here in the Northwest and in other places, on a cold Sunday afternoon expropriated. Perhaps some Viking fan does not wish to see his team shellacked by the Seahawks at Qwest Field. Or perhaps it is a Raiders' fan whose heart can't handle a (0-6) record now that Matt Leinart has been edified as a bona fide Quarterback by outplaying Rex Grossman. I for one will sit back and enjoy the game. Unfortunately I could not get tickets for Qwest Field, so it will have to be from the discomfort of my den at home.

It is wise to take precautions in these cases, if only because there are groups that would love to be able to do just that, get dirty bombs- or even clean bombs (that is how desperate they are)- and blow them up in public. But the most likely dirty bombs next Sunday may be the mini ones produced by tens of thousands of screaming micro-brew-soaked spectators.
Cheers
Mohammed

Mr. Bush and al-Sadr In Agreement

Defiance and Flirting in Iraq:
Aljazeera TV, by far the most popular Arab news outlet, quotes President Bush that the current violence in Iraq cannot be summarized simply as an insurgency encouraged or fed by Iran- although he said he was worried about Iranian interference in Iraq. The Iranian mullahs often claim that they are worried about American interference in Iraq as well. Bush said the enemy in Iraq is ‘more complex than that’, something that may surprise the folks at some U.S cable news networks. He also rejected the idea of three autonomous regions in Iraq, perhaps echoing regional worries that it is a prelude to partition. It is not clear what this rejection means on the ground. He did not mention the Kurdish fait accompli in the north, which seems to be thriving politically and economically, thank you very much.

In this position, the President finds himself among an odd mixed company, strange bedfellows, metaphorically speaking. These include first and foremost the troublesome anti-American Muqtada al-Sadr, often called a Shi’a firebrand in the media- his people in the parliament refused to support regionalism. They also include the many Sunni politicians who flirt with the insurgency publicly and perhaps go much farther with the insurgents privately. Arab governments, Iran and Turkey also profess strong support for a unified Iraq. Of course there is nothing sacred about a unified Iraq, anymore than was about a unified Yugoslavia or the Soviet Union, or Czechoslovakia (I was not sure I could still spell it), or the Austro-Hungarian state. Most of these strange regional bedfellows like Iran, Turkey and the Arab countries support a united Iraq based on calculations of their own national interests and especially the interests of their current governments.

Nevertheless, the Iraqi parliament last week went ahead and approved a law for autonomous regions within a federal system- which shows that they do not give a ripe fig what foreigners, all foreigners including their liberators, wish them to do in their own country. Which shows that even though many Iraqis may feel miserable, they also feel politically empowered, even with 130,000 foreign occupation troops. Which in itself says a lot about both the potential of the new Iraqi political system and about the occupying power itself.

On the Other Hand....:
Arab media reports that Jordan’s King recently released from prison two errant Islamist ‘elected’ members of parliament who had been kicked out of the legislature and jailed for giving condolences to the family of terrorist leader Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi after his death in Iraq. The two members and the Moslem Brotherhood are now petitioning the King to ‘re-instate’ them in parliament as well. Interesting, elected legislators are asking an un-elected king to reinstate them to the seats to which the people had elected them.
Now that is real executive power- almost unbridled executive power.
Cheers
Mohammed

An Iraqi Emirate, Persian Gulf War of Words

Iraq- A Declaration of a new Islamic Emirate:
The Mujahideen Shoura Council, consisting of Al-Qaeda and some other Sunni insurgent groups, has announced the establishment of 'The Islamic Emirate in Iraq', to cover parts of northern Iraq as well as the western part which includes Al-anbar province. The new Emir was named as Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi, which is clearly a made-up name with strong implications that the man is a Sunni from Baghdad. No doubt he is a Sunni but he could be from anywhere, including Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan. The news and reports about these shadowy groups indicate that some former Iraqi military officers are allied with the Salafis and Ba’athists. A new name that crops up is Abu Osama Al-Iraqi, aka Khalid Othman, reported to be a former high officer of the Saddam-era armed forces.

On the other hand, it looks like tribal factors among the Sunnis are playing a strong role in exacerbating the inter-insurgent divisions now. It is not clear if the Coalition efforts have had a role in this shift, or if it is a natural outcome of events, given the strong tribal assabiya, the blind loyalty to the tribe and clan that is powerful and supercedes national identity in most Arab countries of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf. Some of the dissidents are criticizing the new leader of Al-Qaeda-Iraq for harming the Sunnis in their terrorist operations. Presumably some of the tribes have been angered that their own members are being killed and injured during indiscriminate operations in mixed neighborhoods.

The announcer of this new Emirate on the web vowed: “We swear by Allah to work and struggle (Jihad) in order to free the captives, lift injustice and tyranny off the Sunna people who are oppressed by the hateful Rawafidhia rejectionists (a term used for the Shi’as, who do not follow the Sunna orthodoxy) and the Crusader occupiers (guess who?).” The announcement condemns the Kurds (agents of Zionism) as well Shi’as (agents of Persian Safawis, a favorite term used by Ba’athists and Salafis for Shi’as). Speaking of which: Aljazeera TV reports the Iraqi government has announced the formation of a joint working team with Iran for ‘security coordination’ between the two countries. Presumably this will involve exchange of intelligence as well as anti-terrorism and border security. It was not reported if they will discuss the Shi'a militias that also plague Iraqi cities.

A New Persian Gulf War (of Words):
To understand the sectarian emotions that Iraq has unleashed in the Arab World, one needs only to look at recent political developments in the Persian Gulf region:

Fear of a continuation of majority rule in Iraq has already pushed many in the Gulf states toward urging an American-approved coup in Iraq- this is almost an oxymoron, any coup will have to be American-sanctioned. These rumors of a coup have been fed by leading Iraqi Sunni politicians and journalists who have established contacts in the GCC states. While most Americans would consider these rumors as absurd manifestations of certain Middle Eastern or Arab peculiarities, they are taken seriously in the Arab World, especially in the politically pre-adolescent Gulf region. In turn, these rumors feed the terrorist insurgency in Iraq, raising its hopes of a return to power.

Many of the elites in the Arab world, and especially in the Gulf, now believe that they were better off with Saddam in power in Baghdad. One can sense it from what is written in some of the media, either openly or between the lines. It is not often clearly expressed because most of these states would not want to irritate or embarrass the American protector, the only power that keeps the big bad regional wolves at bay. These feelings and worries are understandable, given the regional uncertainties unleashed in the aftermath of the fall of the Ba'ath, and given the history of Iraq with her neighbors.

In looking through some of the mainstream media outlets of the GCC countries, one would think that a hot Shi'a-Sunni civil war has already started on the shores of the Persian Gulf. This is especially the case with parts of the Saudi and Kuwaiti media. The website of Alarabiya TV, Saudi-owned but operating from Dubai, last week carried almost daily news reports about alleged mass conversions of Sunnis in Arab countries to the Shi'a sect. Fundamentalist Salafi deputies in Kuwait have accused the token Shi'a minister in the government of distributing pro-Shi'a literature to other cabinet members. Two Kuwait daily rightwing tabloids, al-Watan and al-Siyassah, have hinted at disloyalty among the Gulf Shi'as, as well as reporting that the Mufti of Syria, that country's leading Islamic Sunni scholar and arbiter, has been forced to convert to Shi'ism in order to keep his job. Now it is not known how one converts to Shi'ism or Sunnism, since there are no rites for conversion between sects in Islam. It has to do with how one thinks, what he believes and also on how he or she perceives certain old historical events in early Islam.

The oddest, and perhaps most amusing, report appeared in Al-watan (Oct. 15), where a regular daily columnist published an open letter to President Bush (Oct. 15) telling him that North Korea has developed nuclear weapons only because she fears a 'repeat of past American aggression', urging him to leave North Korea alone and attack Iran and Syria. He said these two countries tend to subvert citizens of Gulf countries. They probably do try to recruit agents in the area, perhaps try to win some hearts and minds, although I can't see how they can win any given the dismal economic and human rights performance of both countries. A piece of advice is in order here: this may not be considered a casus belli (he'll have to look this one up), not by the men and women who will have to do the fighting or their representatives, probably not even by those who will have to give the orders.

The Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) will hold a conference in Mecca to discuss peace in Iraq. A representative of Ayatollah Ali Sistani has publicly urged the conference to include an item discouraging the public use of sectarian language, especially among preachers at the mosques. Some extremist preachers periodically denounce the Shi'as publicly from the pulpit as heretics and encourage others to fight them- apparently the place to do just that is Iraq.

One positive result of these sectarian tensions, and the Iraq war, is that many domestic issues that were swept under the rug will have to be faced now. Still, these are things that can rock a boat, as they say.

Cheers
Mohammed

Iraq's Gruesome Insurance, Gulf Markets

Iraq, Syria and Israel:
Iraq's parliament has approved a law on 'Mechansims and Procedures for Forming Federal Regions'. Regionalism within a federal Iraq is supported by most Shi'as and Kurds who control the legislature. Sunnis, who had dominated the country since its creation by the British after WWI, oppose federalism and regionalism. This is a watershed step for Iraq, and perhaps for other unstable and too-centralized states in the Middle East and Africa.
Perhaps three people were instrumental in the creation of Iraq and its current borders and centralized form of government, as well as that of Jordan: Sir Winston Chrchill, Sir Percy Cox, and Miss Gertrude Bell (Ms did not exist at the time. Gloria Steinem was nowhere to be seen, and people were just getting used to saying 'tovarisch' in Russia in those days).

A gruesome sign of the terrible times in Iraq. London-based daily Alhayat reports (10/11) that some Iraqi men now resort to new measures that ensure that their corpses, or cadavers, can be identified in case they are kidnapped and murdered in this atmosphere of sectarian violence. Some men now tatoo their names on different parts of their bodies. Others add the names of family members and telephone numbers on their bodies. Iraqi families nowadays do not wait long after a member is overdue from an outing- they head to the Central Morgue as a first step, before trying detention centers operated by the Iraqi security forces or the U.S military. Tatoos have helped some families identify the mutilated and decomposed bodies of loved ones.

Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Perez has invited President Assad of Syria to visit Jerusalem and talk peace with Israeli leaders. It is highly unlikely that Assad will accept. Sort of like, 'I knew Anwar Sadat, Anwar Sadat was a friend of mine. You are no Anwar Sadat....etc'

Gulf Financial Markets:
Newsweek reports Qatar might try to host the 2016 Olympics. Qatar has the money to build the facilities and after the UAE is probably the only GCC country that could conceivably organize the event. But it does not have the population, not enough of them to pay for Olympic size tickets. Like other GCC states, the majority of the population are expatriate workers and housemaids, who can hardly afford the money or the time to watch international sports.

Kuwait officials are again talking about a future for the country as a world Financial and Trade Center. Both the Kuwaiti Finance Minister and Central Bank Governor have resumed public statements in this regard. So did the old Commerce Minister, among others. Come to think of it, even the Minister of Awqaf and Religious (Islamic) Affairs has talked about this issue at some point. Some Kuwaitis would jest that perhaps even the Nabat Poets Society (a local Bedouin Dead Poets' Society) have opined about this issue. But this is sort of like a deluded middle-aged spinster who still talks of getting married and having children. Except that a much more attractive and younger bride, the UAE in this case, especially Dubai, has taken the only eligible bachelor in town, and in an irrevocable Catholic (gasp) marriage, which allows for no polygamy. Besides, the powerful local Fun-dementa-lists of the Salafi variety do not have much use for monogamy.

Alhayat quotes a report by Abu Dhabi National Bank that the Saudi Stocks Index lost about 45% of its value during the period between February's high and September of 2006. Qatar lost 31.5%, UAE 30.8%, Kuwait 11.5%, Oman 11.7%, and Bahrain 1.7%. During the first 9 months of 2005, these markets achieved huge gains of between 19% (Bahrain) and 116% (Saudi Arabia). These periodic' moderate' corrections, following exuberant rises, are a good thing for the markets in the long term- except few individuals in the Gulf invest in the local market long-term.

Interesting Item(s):
African media report that a man and a woman were discovered having intercourse in a mosque in Nairobi (Kenya) one night last week during Ramadan. When arrested, the man claimed he did it because he was drunk.

Almost Deja Vue All Over Again:
For a few horrible minutes yesterday morning, hearing the news from Manhattan...it sounded and looked like deja vue all over again...

Cheers
Mohammed

A New Iraq Policy? Gulf Finance

New Direction in Iraq Policy?

There are several reasons to think some changes are on the way in Iraq:

- James Baker, head of a bipartisan Iraq Commission appointed by the congress with White House approval, has been making the media rounds. The commission is supposed to look into possible changes in the Iraq policy. Baker has a long resume as a Republican honcho: Secretary of State, Secretary of Treasury, White House Chief of Staff, Campaign Manager, Bush Florida Recount Legal Council. Mr. Baker is not normally interested in media appearances.
Arab newspapers like Asharq Alawsat and Alquds Alarabi, both London-based, report that the Baker commission will recommend splitting Iraq into three Federal regions, Shi'a, Sunni, and Kurd. Each region will control its own internal security. This would solve the problem of the militias, except in Baghdad.

- Senator John Warner, Chair of Armed Services Committee, back from another trip to the Iraqi front, has been making noises to the effect that things are not going right, and that 'something, some progress, must be done within two or three months' in Iraq.

- Secretary Rice flew to Baghdad last week, met the leaders, then went to Kurdistan and met with Kurdish leaders.

- U. S. Ambassador in Baghdad Zalmay Khalilzad has been quoted (ABC, George Stephanopoulos, Oct 8) as saying that "the problem in Iraq is not the terrorism, but the sectarian violence". Try telling that to the families of the daily victims, Iraqis and Americans, who are maimed and killed every day. Clearly Iraq's main problems, terrorism and sectarianism, are related: without the Salafi and Ba'athist terrorism, which is basically sectarian instigated, people would not seek the dubious and illusory protection of the sectarian militias. As mentioned in an earlier posting here, the failure of the Iraqi government to contain the militias is a direct function of the failure of the Coalition (U.S.) policy to control the terrorism. Nevertheless the terrorists are invisible, especially around Baghdad. The militias are quite visible, and by their visibility they weaken and undermine the sovereignty of the state. This is something that no government can tolerate and survive.

- Some media in the Persian Gulf oil states have been hinting at the possible overthrow of the elected Iraqi government. There have been claims that al-Malki's government will be replaced with a regime of 'National Salvation' or 'National Unity'. If these reports are beyond wishful thinking, and have some elements of truth, then prehaps Secretary Rice's visit had something to do with that as well. This is the least likely and most dangerous scenario, because it undermines the post-war rationale for the war- in this case the Liberation of Iraq becomes the mere Invasion of Iraq. The United States has never invaded an independent country and then forced a dictatorship: Germany, Japan, Italy, Austria, even Grenada and Haiti were eventually allowed to hold elections. It is not likely to depart now from this quintessentially American principle that has defined United States policy since World War I.

GCC Finance:
Dubai is working to attract biotechnology industries, by developing a Dubai (Complex) Center for Biotech, with extensive laboratories and advanced research centers. The plan is code-named Dubiotech (Du-Bio-Tech). Apparently the major competitor anywhere within reach is India, which has a huge reservoir of skilled staff in the field of technology and presumably in biotech as well. India, however, has not been known for its research in biotech, so this may not be an issue. But it has the advantage of low cost of operations. Dubai has the advantages of a more cosmopolitan environment and an interesting lifestyle which will make it easier to attract talent.
The Gulf Emirate was edified by having the IMF meetings held there in 2003, the first Arab country to host the annual meetings.

One problem with Dubai is the extremely high inflation rate. According to media reports many expatriate workers in the UAE already seek second or third jobs in order to be able to meet the costs of living and send money home for their families. Alaswaq.net reports that price increases have ranged between 30%-70% during the period 2003-2006. Rents are reported to have increased by up to 90% for that period. The report said that many people have started speculating in the stock marke in order to supplement their incomes. IMF data show inflation for the GCC countries at 3.2% for this year (for the Middle East oil producers as a group it is 7.6%). These figures, officially sanctioned, do not seem to match anecdotal evidence.

In the Gulf states (GCC) the effects of collapsing stock markets effects tend to be less than in other regions. Government intervention often keeps a floor under share prices. Authorities occasionally purchase shares through their local investment arms in order to shore up prices (the Kuwait Investment Authority is a clear example of this, as well as a new public fund started in Saudi Arabia by the King earlier this year).

Cheers
Mohammed

New Arab Alliance- Jordan (The Country) Suffers PMS.

GCC+2 and Iraq:
There is talk in the Arab media about a new 6+2 conservative alliance in the Middle East. This includes the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) plus Egypt and Jordan. Overseeing this group of 6 will be number 7, Washington. Some officials at the ministerial level in the GCC have denied that such an alliance exists, but the recent meeting in Cairo with Secretary Rice has been noted in the press as an indication that Washington is pushing for an alliance that would be anti-Iranian, anti-Syrian, anti-Hizballah, anti-Hamas, and presumably anti-AlQaeda as well. But perhaps not anti-North Korean, not yet.
Some Islamist political groups in the GCC and in Egypt, and the remnants of the old Secular pan-Arabists, have cautioned of such a Western-dominated alliance. This is reminiscent of the old CENTO (Baghdad Pact) that stretched from Pakistan through Iran to Iraq and Turkey and was rendered defunct after the Iraqi generals started their series of coups in 1958. Such a new alliance will most likely depend heavily on the financial resources of the GCC countries. It looks like the immediate emphasis for this group will be on Iraq, and perhaps the Palestinian-Israeli issue- the New democratic Middle East might be put on the agenda at a much later date, perhaps after the oil wells dry out. I have a suggestion here: perhaps they should start by discussing the crippling foreign debts of Iraq, especially the Arab debts, including the reparation payments?

Troubled Jordan:
Jordan has withdrawn her ambassador from Doha, apparently in protest over Qatar declining to vote for her candidate for UN Secretary General. Qatar is the sole Arab member of the Security Council for the current term. The Jordanians claim there had been an Arab consensus to vote for a Jordanian prince to succeed Kofi Annan, but the Qataris deny that they promised any such thing. Interesting, last time I checked Qatar was an independent country, free to vote for whomever she wanted to. Besides the South Korean who seems slated for the job is a man with much experience, and he would have won anyway.
Jordan has been at the center of several controversies in recent months, some of it of her own creation, and this is something quite uncharacteristic for Jordan, which has a very presentable pair of monarchs- in fact they are the most presentable of all the 20 Arab monarchs (yes they are 20 of them). Well, almost all because I have not seen Her Majesty the Queen of Morocco, and I know King Mohammed VI looks better than Abdullah II.

Perhaps a change of Foreign Minister is in order in Amman. Or is it just a case of national PMS- that is Post Menstrual Syndrome in case you need to look it up? After all, it has been about 80 years since the British took away part of the Palestinian desert (TransJordan), and made it into a Kingdom- at about the same time they patched Iraq together from various Ottoman provinces and handed it to the Sunni potentates and officers corps. I thought 80 years was past it, but perhaps nation- states have a different biological clock. Does that explain the situation in Iraq as well? Does this mean Washingtom chose the wrong year to get rid of the Ba'athist regime?

Oh Oh, Them Cartoons, Again:
A Norwegian media outlet, TV2, has broadcast a documentary Monday (Oct 2) that includes the controversial Danish cartoons about the Prophet Mohammed. Alarabiya TV reports that all Norwegian embassies were forewarned to allow for security precautions. Keep your eyes open for the new snowball.
Cheers
Mohammed

Iran's Troubled Economy and The Diabolus Magnus

Iran Comment

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenai has lashed out at President Ahmadinejad over the state of the Iranian economy. (Why is it that supreme leaders are never elected? Would elections reduce their supremacy?) This sharp criticism may help bring Mr. Ahmadinejad back to earth, down from his perch in the glare of international media and nuclear crisis management. Perhaps the media party is almost over for him. He came to power with promises of reform and improving the economy, something he has not done and is not likely to succeed in doing even if he knew how, not against the wishes of the clerics.
Official figures have mentioned an inflation rate of 10%, and in the Middle East one must add a political cheat premium of at least another 5% (actually another 10% is more reasonable). The unelected Ayatollah has put the economic blame on the elected president, an easy ploy, but attempts at economic and political reform in the past were aborted by the entrenched conservative clerics and their parliamentary allies.

The reality or Iran is that, beyond all the publicity about confrontation with the West (read Washington), and the adulation in some regional Arab media about its nuclear ambitions, the country is as besieged today as it has ever been. True, the hated throat-slitting, chastity-belt peddling, serial-marrying Taliban are gone from next door in Afghanistan, but now there are the forces of the Great Satan and her allies. And the Afghan warlords, poppy-growers and opium smugglers next door are thriving as well. True, the unstable Saddam Hussein, who was never able to resist a war that he could start, has gone into full O.J. courtroom mode. Now the forces of the Great Satan are in tenuous control of Baghdad, and Arab leaders, once shameless hairy cheerleaders for the murderous Ba'ath, are brazenly trying to shift the blame to Tehran for the mess in Iraq.

In fact the whole neighborhood, that is the Arab World from the Tigris to beyond the Nile, is today American territory, covered by a Pax Americana unprecedented since the days of the Roman Empire. Even the Roman Empire never reached the Tigris- that remained Parthian (Persian) territory until the Moslem conquests. Old triumvir Marcus Crassus did a Saddam more than two thousand years ago and invaded across the Tigris- they never found him or his legions nor, more imporatnt for the Romans, did they recover the sacred eagles that he carried.
This is a painful Pax Diabol(ic)us Magnus to the clerics in Tehran. The only exception, the only regional wriggle room the mullahs have, lies in a strip along the southern border of Lebanon and perhaps in Gaza.

Most of the people in Iran are fed up with the leadership, especially city folks, and are unlikely to worry much about the proximity of this Diabolus Magnus, a name often used by the mullahs that most of the people do not agree with and none use privately. Most likely, most Iranians could not care less what happens in the Arab lands to their south and west, across the Persian Gulf or the Zagross Mountains. They have their own tenacious local fundamentalist demons that they would dearly love to shake off. Still, it is wise to know that foreign forces or bombers will not be met with flowers in Iran.

Cheers
Mohammed

Two Faces of the Iraq Coin- Is a Kabbalah on the Way to Baghdad?

Iraq News Analysis

Criticism has increased recently in both the United States and some gleeful media outlets in the Arab World about the failures of the Nouri al-Malki government to rein in the militias in Baghdad. Reports leaked almost every day to the U.S media hint at dissatisfaction with al-Malki's government for its slow pace of restoring security.

On the other hand, criticism of the U.S government failure to control the Jihadist and Baathist Sunni terrorists in Baghdad and other areas has been around for some time now. The new Bob Woodward book, which will come out tomorrow, will add fuel to the fires of criticism of Washington's policy in the aftermath of the invasion.

These two failures in Iraq, specifically in Baghdad are, to repeat a justifiably overused cliche, two faces of the same coin. As long as the Coalition (i.e the U.S) fails to destroy or at least control the Sunni terrorists, it will be impossible for the government in Baghdad to control the Shi'a militias. It will be hard for the politicians to make the case, to their own people, for disarming or redeploying these militias. The militias are not doing anything visibly effective to combat the terrorism either, but that fact is lost in the emotions on the Iraqi street.

Yesterday's news about uncovering Al-Qaida operatives working in the offices of a leading Sunni politician, Mr. Adnan al-Dulaimi (al-Delaimi) will not help matters. Only one man was apprehended, but Jihadist terrorists are like the proverbial (?) cockroaches of the Middle East, if you see one of them in the bathroom you can be certain there is a nest of them in the house.

In the Arab World, it looks like they are trying to make the case in the media, and to their own restless and skeptic peoples, for a grade of 'F' for the Baghdad government, based on the security issue. The potentates in the Arab World would like to push for an unelected government of selected political-military strongmen, a cabal, a ruling Kabbalah to borrow a Hebrew term, which will be politically in line with the rest of the region that extends from the Indus River to the Atlas Mountains. The Jihadists are useful for this purpose because they make the case for a failure of elected governance. These Salafis, however, have a different agenda, they want to make the rest of the region in the image of their townships in al-Anbar, a Talibanesque hellhole.

The Arab potentates should learn a lesson from their experience with the Palestinian Islamic Hamas. After the first Persian Gulf War, Arab oil money poured into Hamas coffers- telethones were even held on Saudi Television to collect money for it. Today Hamas is in power, and they are all trying hard to unseat it.

Cheers
Mohammed

Baghdad failures,

Iraq News Analysis

Criticism has increased recently in both the United States and some gleeful media outlets in the Arab World about the failures of the Nouri al-Malki government to rein in the militias in Baghdad. Reports leaked to the media hint at dissatisfaction with al-Malki's government for its slow pace of restoring security.

Criticism of the U.S government failure to control the Jihadist and Baathist Sunni terrorists in Baghdad and other areas has been around for some time now. The new Bob Woodward book, which will come out tomorrow, will add fuel to the fires of criticism of Washington's policy in the aftermath of the invasion.

These two failures in Iraq, specifically in Baghdad, to repeat a justifiably overused cliche, are two faces of the same coin. As long as the Coalition (i.e the U.S) fails to destroy or at least control the Sunni terrorists, it will be impossible for the government in Baghdad to control the Shi'a militias. It will be hard for the politicians to make the case, to their own people, for disarming or redeploying these militias.

Yesterday's news about uncovering Al-Qaida operatives working in the offices of a leading Sunni politician, Mr. Adnan al-Dulaimi (al-Delaimi) will not help matters. Only one man was apprehended, but Jihadist terrorists are like the proverbial cockroaches, if you see one of them in the bathroom you can be certain there is a nest of them in the house.

In the Arab World, it looks like they are trying to make the case in the media, and to their restless and skeptic peoples, for a grade of 'F' for the Baghdad government, based on the security issue. The potentates in the Arab World would like to push for an unelected government of selected political-military strongmen, a cabal, a ruling Kabbalah to borrow a Hebrew term, which will be politically in line with the rest of the region that extends from the Indus River to the Atlas Mountains. The Jihadists are useful for this purpose because they make the case for a failure of elected governance. These Salafis, however, have a different agenda, they want to make the rest of the region in the image of their townships in al-Anbar, a Talibanesque hellhole.

The Arab potentates should learn a lesson from their experience with the Palestinian Islamic Hamas. After the first Persian Gulf War, Arab oil money poured into Hamas coffers- telethones were even held on Saudi Television to collect money for it. Today Hamas is in power, and they are all trying hard to unseat it.

Cheers
Mohammed

Quranic Verses, Iraq and Her Neighbors

A 'Quranic Dispute:
Alarabiya TV, which is Saudi-owned but operates out of easy-going Dubai, has been tackling a controversial issue in Islam: the idea that the 'Quran as it exists today does not have the exact original text as dictated by the Prophet Mohammed to the sahaba. The controversy was revived recently by a Moroccan academic who claims that some verses were dropped, perhaps during the reign of the third Caliph Othman.
A professor at al-Azhar in Cairo, Shaikh M. al-Mahdi, has refuted that, saying said that the current text of the 'Quran is the exact original one, without any changes. He said that each chapter of the text was written down immediately upon revelation, and that the Angel Gabriel usually reviewed it during Ramadan of each year, for a total of 24 reviews by Gabriel. He also claims that the Prophet was made to forget some of the verses deliberately, especially those that were harsh.
Another al-Azhar scholar, a Shaikh al-Jundi, said that the 'Quran was revealed in the seven most common dialects of the Arabian Peninsula, and that may explain some unusual-looking 'jumps' or the seeming segmentation in the flow of the text, which makes it look like some phrases were deleted.

Iraq and Her Neighbors:
Looks like the Saudi fence along the Iraq border I mentioned two weeks ago will become a reality. It is also expected now to cost $ 12 billion, up from the $7 billion I mentioned. What a big difference two weeks makes. There have also been incidents of sporadic violence and intrusions along the Kuwaiti border with Iraq. Armed groups have been taking occasional shots toward Kuwait. It is not clear who is involved, it is doubtful that even the Iraqi government, or the Coalition, knows. Still, given the history of Kuwait with Iraq, these incidents make people understandably nervous. One undeniable fact remians: an Iraq facing deep security, political, and economic troubles has always managed to export trouble to her neighbors.

Although bloodshed continues in the Baghad area and the Anbar Province, there is a shift of tensions to the north, toward the border of the Kurdistan region. It evolves around territory, especially Kirkuk, the reversing of Ba'athist population dislocations (ethnic cleansing), as well as control of the oil and gas industry.
At Karbalaa', a representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has accused Ba'athist and Sunni extremists of kidnapping, raping, and murdering scores of Shi'a women in Dialy near Baghdad. The province of Dialy includes such notorious tourist hotspots as B'aquba.

Bahrain:
The foreign minister, a Shaikh al-Khalifa, complained in a press interview about possible spread of sectarian tensions from Iraq. He also mentioned Iranian interference in his country's politics. The population of Bahrain is reported to be more than 70% Shi'a, and there have been complaints that they are discriminated against by the rulers and the minority elites, who are Sunni. The island nation, famous recently for being the new home of Michael Jackson, is scheduled to hold legislative elections next November. The elections will be held for only half the legislature, the other half will be appointed by the king- a smart, if questionable, insurance policy common in the Gulf region.

Saudi Arabia & Hizballah:
Alquds Alarabi, published in the safety of London, reports that Hizballah has issued a denial of a report by the Saudi daily newspaper al-jazeirah, that it had recently interviewed Shaikh Hassan Nassrallah. The Saudi paper had reported in the purported interview that Nassrallah had said that he will soon visit the Kingdom to personally thank her leaders, especially the King and Crown Prince, for their help to the Lebanese people during the July war with Israel. Odd.


Shaikh al-Sudeis, the Imam, or vicar if you will, of the grand mosque at Mecca, who is clearly not anorexic, has called for an international 'Accord of Honor' which defends religions, stops bloodshed, and protects innocents. He also called for all Moslems to stand firm in the face of the naked Zionist aggression against the 'blessed land of Palestine', among other things.
Cheers
Mohammed

Verbose and Boring in Bahrain

An Example of No-No Journalism

Below is an abridged version of a Stalinesque interview done last week (9/20) by the owner of the Kuwait daily Al-Siyassa with the Prime Minister of Bahrain. This piece should be taught in schools of Journalism (and other media) as a definite no-no.


(No this is not a blind date going nowhere, although the pained facial expressions and especially the body language make it seem like one. The PM is on the left- the owner/chief editor is on the right, in case you could not guess).

Editor's preamble: Sometimes one cannot stop asking, as long as one can easily get the question in question to those in charge (Disclaimer: no, I swear I did not make this up, I could not if I tried). Here in Manama there are many questions that deserve answers, since without these said answers such questions remain unanswered and become sources of anxiety, and avenues for guesses which might solidify into part of the public perception of reality, even though they are not based on facts or evidence. Therefore I had a first question among the many questions that I presented at the beginning to His Highness the Prime Minister of The Kingdom of Bahrain, Shaikh Khalifa Bin Salman Al-Khalifa.

Q: This first question which I raised to the high Bahraini official went thus: Your Highness the Prime Minister, I shall tell you what people are talking about here. And I ask you: Is it true that these days the skies over the ruling family in Bahrain are stormy and full of clouds?

Answer: Perhaps you meant with your question if there were differences between the Prime Minister and the King, so let me make it easier for you and comfort you with an answer, yes...within the ruling families in the region there are differences of opinion (this is a not too subtle dig at diffreences within Kuwait), and some people try to fan the flames of these differences. Perhaps such people will succeed or perhaps they will fail. The difference between success and failure of such efforts depends on the wisdom of the men who rule, and how they manage these matters. Such things are natural. I remeber when I was a youngster (he was one, you know) there were some differences within the ruling family, and it was encouraged and stoked by gossip mongers and people who had an interest in such things, in changing differences and elevating them into disputes. The wise ones among the family met and realized that they should not allow themselves to become victims to gossip-mongers and those with narrow interests, or victims of those who banged the drums to change differences into disputes.. They sat together, opened up their emotions to each other, and that was the end of that..................(many, many dots).

Q: Your Highness, you hear all the tales and whispers around you, and about you, surely you were exposed to fierce winds which you overcame. Did they, these fierce winds, disturb you (At least he did not call him sweetie)?......

Part of the Answer (a small part): I will be honest with you, and tell you that stories and tales that are repeated here and there reach me, some of it is softened, some not, by people who do not wish to hurt my feelings. Some of it is also exaggerated...........I do not say there are no differences, it is natural to have differences, what is unnatural is the existence of those who try to change differences into disputes. In all stable and perosperous nations there are those who try to create disputes between the First Man in the nation and the Second and Third man, and these attempts do not succeed but fail subject to the existence of some degree of wisdom among such men.......(many more dots)
ad nauseam.....

(There are three full pages, big wide newspaper pages, of this stuff. I could not translate all of it today. I do have a life of sorts. Get my drift?)
Cheers
Mohammed

Yemen Elections, the U.N. and Mainstream Arab Leaders

Middle East Commentary

Yemen Election:
In a shocking upset for an Arab leader, Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh has won an 82% landslide victory in the presidential election. Mr. Saleh has been in office for 28 years. Arab media had been predciting the results for some time- in itself an amazing feat of journalistic prescience unseen these days anywhere outside the Arab World. Except for North Korea.

Mr. Saleh had initially declined to run for office because, it was said, he wanted some free time to take his wife out to dinner and perhaps an ice cream cone afterwards. The public was stunned into justifiably incredulous silence. He finally yielded to irresistibly strong pressure from the same formerly incredulous Yemeni public, who apparently did not know how they would manage without Mr. Ali being at the helm for at least two more decades, or three. It is not known if he has any male children to inherit the persidency, like Assad of Syria or Mubarak of Egypt- which might explain the sudden urge to take his wife out to dinner, and an ice cream cone afterwards.

Leadership Styles:
Yesterday I saw two leaders address the world and their own peoples from the UN. Both seemed so confident in the righteousness of their cause, and in their superior faith, of course. Both have been polarizing figures, with strident enemies and strong supporters in their own respective regions. I discovered with some shock that Bush and Ahmadinejad have much more in common than I had realized. This can be good or it can be bad, depending on one's outlook.

Yet the two were not addressing each other, they talked around each other, rather like debating candidates in an American election campaign. But then this is what U.N speeches are about, putting positions on the record, and trying to sway audiences worldwide. Except that in most cases there are no worldwide audiences. ( The ranting speech by Venezuela's Chavez defies comment).

For example, the only audiences to speeches delivered by Arab leaders at the UN are captive viewers bound to state-owned television stations- plus underlings and minions who are later queried about the delivery and content of the speeches, just to make sure that they actually watched and listened. Even the doemstic captive audience is not guaranteed anymore in this age of satellite TV and the internet. I certainly have not watched one in many years, whether it was delivered at the UN or anywhere else, and I used to be a domestic captive viewer. It is no fun listening to a speech with nothing new in it, and Arab leaders almost never say anything new in their public speeches. These guys are too stiff to venture into new territory. I suspect some of them might say interesting things in their private conversations, although sometimes I am doubtful about that too. Perhaps the pillow talk, such as it is, is interesting. Maybe.

The last interesting public speech of an Arab leader was probably delivered by the late Anwar Sadat- a speech in which he did something Arab leaders almost never ever do: he said something new and unexpected, and then he went ahead and did it. He must have, because he gained the enmity of most Arab leaders and many of their peoples. In return, Sadat contemptuously called them 'dwarves and midgets', and he probably wasn't far off the mark, because in the end they came back to him.

Colonel Qadhafi of Libya was also known for delivering speeches with interesting offbeat content, but that was years ago when he was also engaged in financing some unusual activities in the air as well as on land. He is now older, wiser, and boring, as befits a grown up Arab leader. He is almost mainstream Arab now, he even dyes his hair jet black, a sure sign of Arab mainstream tendencies. Still, he needs a jet black mustache (dyed of course) to be eligible for full membership. Occasionally the Colonel slips something into his public statements that reminds one of his old wild days, when he seemed to enjoy stepping on brittle Arab toes and sensitive tails tucked between legs.
Cheers
Mohammed
(Note: the above was mostly borrowed from my other website)

An Egyptian Archimedes, The Mufti and Adultery

Aljazeera TV quotes a leading official of Egypt's ruling party hinting that President Mubarak's son can replace him through retirement. The official asserted triumphantly "This would not be an inherited presidency in this case"- presumably because there is no death involved. I can imagine the eager party functionary who first hit upon this great idea- how he ran out of the bath as naked as an Egyptian Archimedes, screaming joyously "Eureka, Eureka!"
Interesting way to show respect for the people and their intelligence in the New Middle East, or is it the New Old Middle East?

Alwatan newspaper of Kuwait quotes (9/19) an interview in the Egyptian weekly Rose Al-Yousef with the Mufti of Egypt, the head Islamic honcho in the country. Apparently he has claimed that a woman who bore a child exactly four years (1460 days) after her husband's death could not be considered a zaniya, a loose woman or an adulteress. So far so good, there are others who would agree with that. But then he ruined the whole effect by stating that if she bore a child 4 years+1 day after her husband's death, that is 1461 days, then she would be a loose zaniya- very loose indeed. Apparently he, the Mufti, used the precedence of some revered person who was born quite properly and normally almost four years after his father's death. Revered or not, his mother must have been a very convincing talker, among other things. (Note: some irreverent person might remark that this comes dangerously close to immaculate conception).

Riots continue against the Pope's speech in Germany (the speech was in Germany, not the riots). Some of the protesters have become wise to the fact that the Pope is not American, which must be a disappointing fact: it looked like they were burning the German flag for the TV cameras somewhere in Pakistan yesterday. This is quite a switch- usually there are lots of U.S flags in reserve somewhere in some protesters' cellars, especially in friendly allied countries like Pakistan, ready to be whipped out and burned at the slightest provocation. They must have run out of American flags, what with all the riots over the past few years, and scrambled to find a German flag, not an easy thing to find in Pakistan, or anywhere south of Bavaria.
Qadhafi's son has suggested the Pope study Islam carefully, as a prelude to conversion. I think he is these days.
Cheers?
Mohammed

A Lost Pope, A Gracious Rabbi, A Dour Shaikh

Did the Pope Change the Subject in the Middle East?

Pope Benedict's speechwriters slipped, and in the process handed Arab, Iranian, and other assorted Moslem leaders a welcome change of subject. Browsing through the Arab media, it is clear that everybody has rushed to get in on the act. Potentates, academics, fundamentalists, pious people, secularists, former communists and others. The only Arab newspaper I could find that took a pass on the issue was the mouthpiece of the Iraqi Communist Party. It is always good to be on the right side of an issue, especially if everybody else is. In the Middle East it is called jumping on the lead caravan- but watch out for that hump.

Even Rabbi Shlomo Amar, chief Sephardic Rabbi in Israel, graciously sent a letter to Shaikh al-Qardhawi, a top Sunni Moslem honcho, expressing sympathy and his regret at the Pope's slip. The dour Shaikh, perhaps not appreciating the humor and ever suspicious of dastardly Jewish conspiracies, declined to respond to the letter.

Most protesters have not seen a copy of the Pope's actual speech. This reminds me of the furor over Slaman Rushdie's Satanic Verses. True, that book had outrageous symbolisms that could only enrage the pious Moslem. Yet most people whom I knew at the time who were loudest in condemning it had not read it, and many of them were academic types. They also claimed to have no intention of ever reading it. (Disclaimer: I did smuggle a copy back into my undisclosed Middle East location at that time. Unlike Clinton, I inhaled it and I enjoyed it- In fact I read it twice, although I also understood the cause of all the rage at the time).

As I said, this furor has been a (welcome?) change of subject. Even in distracted Baghdad there were protests. Unfortunately it did not induce the Jihadist homicide bombers or those who kill on identity to take a sabbatical- not even for the sake of Islamic solidarity in the face of the world wide web of infidel conspiracies to undermine the faith and distract our wise leaders, may they live forever, from the task of serving their peoples diligently.

Cheers
Mohammed

An Islamic Dichotomy- A Syrian Invasion?

Comment and News

It looks like the sectarian war of words that accompanied the Lebanon-Israel war is easing. Shi'a-Sunni sectarian tensions started to escalate, especially in the Persian Gulf region because of developments in Iraq, but they rose to new virulent levels during the Lebanon War last summer. The loyal media waged a hot war of words evolving mostly around suspected loyalties of the Shi'as, many of whom sympathized with Hizballah. Many Sunnis across the Middle East also sympathized with Hizballah, but the sectarian distinctions were used in the media to offset that.

In the Gulf region sectarian emotions are as strong as tribal ones, and the two often overlap. This is especially true in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, where strong alliances exist among tribes and Sunni Salafi fundamentalists. The rulers have taken advantage of that by catering to both and often encouraging it, often using this alliance for their own political ends. It is a known fact that in the Gulf region fundamentalists tend to have a simplistic view of Islamic morality: they focus on the application of the basic pillars of the faith, to the exclusion of all other ethical or moral issues that deal with accountability and the sanctity of public property and public funds. This is a great deal if you are among the potentates.

What sweetens the pot even more is that Salafi doctrine teaches loyalty to the ruler, as long as he enforces the basic pillars of Islam. This is largely based on quotes from Abu Huraira, who quoted the Prophet Mohammed as saying that a Moslem must obey and put up with his Moslem ruler, no matter how bad or evil he is. It is sort of like rendering unto God what is His and rendering unto Caesar (read oil potentate) what belongs to him and everyone else. This also makes it easier for a ruler to hold his nose and cater to these groups. Actually, in some cases both sides must hold their noses.

Jordan:
King Abdullah II, de Jordanie, yesterday expressed regret that some 'regional' powers are trying to fan the fires of sectarianism, and cause frictions between Shi'as and Sunnis. The King of Jordan is famous for his unfortunate statement a few months ago expressing alarm about a "Shi'a Crescent" across the Middle East. The King did not express any regrets for his own divisive statement. Still, the king must be raking in the oil aid money- quite a contrast with his father the Late King Hussein, de Jordanie aussi, who made the big mistake of siding with Saddam after his invasion of Kuwait. That was a lesson well learned.

Iraq:
deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih said that a new law will be passed next month allowing for disarming the militias in Baghdad. He said it will be part of a reconciliation project. Sounds like a good idea to calm down tired and bloodied Baghdad, but will the warlords play?
The I'etilaf (Shi'a) and the Kurdish Alliance made clear that they will offer the draft law on regional federalism to the Parliament this week. Opponents will petition the Supreme Constitional Court to look into some of its provisions.
Ministers of Interior (Police and Security, Interrogation, Knock-on-the-door-at-dawn) of Iraq's neighbors will meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss a Security Strategy against terrorism and keeping Iraq's borders secure from infiltration. It is not clear if they will focus on incoming or outgoing traffic.

Lebanon:
Hizballah leader Hassan Nassrallah has criticized the Lebanese cabinet and called for its replacement. The Prime Minister, Mr. Seniora, said disarming Hizballah will be done only peacefully.

Syria:
The Kuwait daily tabloid al-Siyassah claimed last week that the United States has set November 8th as the date for overthrowing the Baathist regime in Syria. So, after the votes are counted here, and before the recounts are done, the troops will drop in on Damascus, with the editor of that newspaper in the forefront as part of the cannon fodder. The paper also claims that the failedv terrorist operation at the U.S embassy was staged by Syrian intelligence with the aim of improving relations with the United States. There must be less convoluted ways to improve relations with Washington. But then it is Arabia Deserta, or is it Arabia Petraea?

Cheers
Mohammed

The Pope's Faux Papa, New Plan for Iraq: Talibaning the Jihadists

The Pope and Islam:
The Pope quoted an early Byzentine emperor talking to a visiting Persian scholar, and the Moslem world went on a rampage...again. In Pakistan they condemned and burned effigies of the Pope. In Iran they condemned the Pope and for good measure shouted 'Marg bar Amrika, Death to America' even though the man is not American. In the Arab countries they are scrambling to out-outrage each other, the English grammar be damned. All across the Middle East they are condemning in unison....fundamentalists, secularists, rich men, poor men, beggar men and thieves.

Part of the quote was unfortunate, for it did insult Mohammed. Islamic scripture, especially the Hadith, contains cases and quotes of abuses thrown at the Prophet Mohammed by the infidels of his era. These are published and read quite legally. The Pope was quoting someone, but in this explosive age of unreason, it would have been tactful to skip it.

As for the part about spreading the faith by the sword- it is part of the history of the faith. The Hadith and our historians tell us of the great battles against the infidel Arab tribes of Jahiliyya, as well as against the Persians, the Byzentines and the Goths of Iberia. These battles are glorified in textbooks. The fact is, the faith was spread by the sword- mostly after the death of the Prophet. This is what I was taught at school from K1 and for over 12 years. Our history texts always glorified the conquest of Damascus, of Andalusia, of Egypt. And the Jewish oasis of Khaibar in Western Arabia.
For that matter, Christianity was also spread by the sword. Otherwise South America, Oceania, large swaths of Africa, and, yes, North America would not be mostly Christian today.

Iraq:
Baghdad is to be ringed with a security belt, reducing access to the city to a few main roads, More U.S. troops will also be redeployed to the capital from al-Anbar province. It looks like that mostly Sunni province is being ceded for now to the Salafi Jihadists and their allies. The huge province has very long borders with Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria, which makes it almost impossible to control the flow of men, money, and arms.
The apparent goal is to choke off the flow of Sunni terrorists into the city, thus preparing the ground for eventually easing out the Shi'a militias. Clearly the two are connected: without cutting off the access of the jihadists and Baathists to Baghdad, it is hard to make a case for disarming or, more likely, redeploying the entrenched Shi'a militias. It looks like a good plan on paper, but can the capital be made secure from the daily bombings?
As for al-Anbar, perhaps it is best to keep it isolated for some time. The example of Afghanistan is relevant here, where the Taliban and their al-Qaeda guests were isolated and running a country (literally deeper into the ground), which made it easier to sweep them out. If the Salafi Jihadists and their Baathist allies can be coaxed into a settled life in al-Anbar, saddled with all the trappings and restrictions of running a province with scant resources, where rustling sheep is considered an avocation, then perhaps at some point they can be swept away like any other incompetent regime.
Cheers
Mohammed

The War for Iraq: Arab Silence, American Blindness

Comment

A leading Iraqi Sunni politician, a Mr. Adnan al-Dulaimi, today condemned ‘militia’ attacks in Baghdad and other towns. The ‘militias’, or ‘sectarian militias’, is now the new catch phrase used among the Sunnis in Iraq and across the Gulf region in referring to Shi’a armed groups. The term has even crossed continents and become de rigueur among the savvy politicians looking toward ‘08 and among the media in Washington. Which makes sense, since these groups are militias and they are Shi’as, and they are widely suspected of being involved in killings based on identity. They are part, but only part, of what is tearing Iraq apart.

But the Iraqi politician refrained, with admirable self-restraint, from condemning the Salafi jihadists and Baathist terrorists who have been wreaking havoc in Iraq for three years. Unfortunately, he is not alone in that selective restraint- the political and media elites of the whole Arab World have watched silently as the slaughter, mostly of Shi’as, accelerated in Iraq. Just as they watched silently while the Baathists of Anfal gassed the Kurds and razed their villages, and expelled hunderds of thousands in ethnic cleansing operations in the 1980s. The best of them watched silently, others were eager cheerleaders. Not a single one has apologized or expressed regret for a past position- not a newspaper editor, not a leader.

In Iraq, the daily scenes of death and misery became part of a subtle bargaining process: not only to reverse the democratic process in Iraq, but also to keep at bay the wolves at the Arab doors howling for reform and accountability. Then came a day when in Jordan, and in some other Arab states as well, they suddenly discovered that al-Zarqawi and his group were terrorists who could kill non-Shi’as as efficiently. But that came after the bombings in Amman extinguished the gleam of pride in the native son who had done well by himself and his sect.

Some must have been doing more than just watching the carnage take its toll not only in human lives, but also on the fabric of an Iraqi society devastated by 80 years of oppressive minority rule. The men, materiel, and the hundreds of millions of dollars in annual funds must come from some sources with deep pockets. And it obviously cannot be a Shi’a source. Hint: Iran is the only Shi’a source with that kind of money, but it probably prefers to finance Shi’a organizations like Hizbollah rather than Sunni/Salafi groups who are its enemies. So, whence come all the massive funds needed for the men, food, shelter, trucks and other equipment? (Another hint: Syria is almost a basket case and cannot afford to finance the intensive Jihadist campaign). So, let us start the search from the beginning....for the organizations with deep pockets that want to provide the financing.

Perhaps someone needs to explain these sectarian nuances to the leaders and their advisers, their Arabists, in Washington D.C. Or perhaps they understand these things and are playing the card for all its worth with a view to a future confrontation with the stubborn mullahs and Ahmadinejad, the often incoherent little man who is needling the clerics from the right in Tehran. Perhaps the experts are intellectual Clark Kents doing their best to look awkward for a purpose. In that case, it is time to head for the phone booth and show Lois their real stuff.

Cheers
Mohammed

Al-Qaida in Lebanon, Taliban Redux, and an Immortal Egyptian Phrase

Analysis and Commentary

Is al-Qaida surging again? For some time now al-Qaida had almost disappeared from the screen, literally. The terrorist organization was reduced to issuing a series of rambling video-audio tapes, telling the world that it still existed. Of course the bombs kept exploding in Bali, Madrid, and London took. And al-Qaida does not engage in military operations, it plans patiently its suicide killings.

For a while the group was overshadowed by world events, events in which it had no significant role, if any. There was Iraq, then the Iranian nukular (or is it nuclear?) issue. Then came the unkindest cut of all, as far as all Salafi jihadists are concerned: their thunder was stolen by a Shia organization from Lebanon. Hizballah is not only of the wrong sect, it does not even subscribe to a global jihadist philosophy, and it sucked away the limelight and a big chunk of Moslem popular imagination.

Now al-Qaida is back, waving its new trump card: a kaffir recruit, a former pothead from Kaleephornia (or is it California). But the real news should be the Taliban, who seem to be regaining ground in parts of the Pushtun lands in Afghanistan, along the Pakistan border. The Taliban are also resorting to the tactics of the Sunni terrorists in Iraq- suicide bombings and roadside explosives that kill indiscriminately. These are having some effect- otherwise Afghanistan would not even be in the news again.

In an ominous sign, al-Qaida is apparently activating its franchise in Lebanon. The group, led by someone al-Arabiya TV (Sept 12, 2006) calls Abu Rushd al-Migati had been dormant, training and sending occasional bombers across to Iraq. Now it seems to seek a local role in Lebanon. With Sunni-Shia tensions high in the Persian Gulf region, it is likely to get some funds from that region, if only to keep Hizballah looking over its shoulder.

In Egypt, Prime Minister Mohammed Nadheef, his last name means ‘Clean’, is being forced out. According to media reports, Mr. Clean apparently ran afoul of Gamal Mubark, the son of the president and heir apparent to the Egyptian throne, who is said to be an eager reformer. So, out he goes, and in comes a Mr. Rasheed- his last name means ‘Wise’ or ‘Rightly-Guided’ but don’t hold your breath. So, Prime Minister Wise (no, he is not Weiss) will get a crack at the immovable Egyptian bureaucracy. A great Egyptian political leader, Saad Zaghloul once succinctly summed up the political situation to his wife (sort of Egyptian pillow talk, if you will) in one sentence: ‘mafeesh faida ya Saffiya. Ain't no use, it is hopless, Saffiya.’
In the Arab World you can repeat the same phrase today, about twenty two times, once for each capital. If you do, you would be right in almost every case, but you would also be very unwise.

Cheers
Mohammed

King Abdullah's Iraqi Wall, America's Mexican Wall, and The Chines Yuan

Comments

Some people in the United States have been demanding a security fence across the border with Mexico, one that they hope will stop illegal immigration from the south and stem the tide of their company CEOs speaking only Spanish and their neighborhoods turning dusky. There probably is a lot of illegal immigration from Canada as well, mainly from Asians and Europeans who can fly into Canada without a visa. Now a security fence, or wall, may work if you have an efficient policing and enforcing mechanism. Just building a fence/wall and turning on a switch will not do, unless you can refer back to the old East German manuals. Besides, it will most likely have more a negative impact on the environment, the fauna of the southwest than a positive one on the flow of illegals.

Now it looks like this good-fence-makes-good-neighbor idea is spreading across the world. Arab media report that Saudi King Abdullah is planning a long fence, perhaps the mother of all fences, across his country's long, some say too long, border with Iraq. The fence will consist of electric wires, berms, trenches, bricks, crotch-cupping rappers and other assorted things that might annoy and deter incoming traffic. A veritable Arabian Maginot Line. Of course the Iraqis can bypass that by swinging wide across Belgium, always the soft....crotch, or underbelly if you will, of its neighborhood (What else is under a belly?).

King Abdullah, whatever one thinks of the regime that he heads, is a simple but level-headed and intelligent man- he has what is called bedu or badiya smarts. He is not quite the modern day Claudius, Plato and Ataturk all wrapped in one the way the sycophants in the Saudi-owned media make him out to be these days. But that is ok, Arab media in general is full of sychophants kissing all the rulers'...err....noses.
Now if this calm elderly monarch is so worried about Iraq, if the reports of this Saudi fence are true, that has ominous implications for the future of Iraq and the region. It means the Saudis, and other Arab oil states, the moneybags and real powers in this post-nationalist and quasi-fun-damentalist Arab World, are ready to give up on their northern neighbor. If the rports are true, which is a big 'if'.

Some time back Kuwait was also thinking of a fence along the Iraqi border, but that was when Saddam, formerly admired across the region as Abu Uday, was still in power. Now, with the uncertainty of the terror and counter-terror campaign across Iraq, perhaps the idea will be revived.

A wall, or a static line cannot in itself keep away determined invaders, as Les Francaises discovered at least once. The Saudi worry seems to be more of refugees in case Iraq either moves to a full scale civil war or breaks up into several states, some of whom maybe turn out to be nasty neighbors.

Then there is the other fence/wall, the one we have been screaming about, before we started planning our own. The nascent Israeli wall across the West Bank, part of which is already finished.

Of course the Chinese started this whole dependence of walls when they built their own many centuries ago, perhaps with an eye to the future explosion of American and European middle class tourism....with the yuan kept at such a low exchange rate, shyly shadowing the dollar at an annoyingly fixed distance.

Cheers
Mohammed

Bush, Ahmadinejad, Mithradites, and Saudi Jinn

Comments and Analysis

An Acquaintance contacted me this afternoon and talked about Presidents Bush and Ahmadinejad. She noted that this morning, in fact hours earlier, Bush had called the Iranian leader a 'tyrant'. She though that was not the proper title or adjective to use because, she said, the man was elected as an underdog against the chosen candidate of the powerful clergy. Ok, she added, the elections are restricted and framed so that only those who pose no threat to the clerical regime can run- still, the man won. Even if most people were disappointed and stayed away from the polls.
I asked her what she thought Bush should call Ahmadinejad that is more accurate and reminds people of the man's strange world views and possible aspirations. An idiot, she told me right away. But leaders don't call each others 'idiots', I reminded her. It is so un-statesman-like (I broke it into three slow syllables). She did not seem convinced.

Which caused me to think: maybe she was right. 'Tyrant' may not be the right word in this case. If only because most of our Arab allies are at least as 'tyrannical'- none of them has ever been elected in a free election. In the Middel East, a leader who is not a tyrant is soon dead or, if he is lucky, in exile. Still, an idiot does not sound a....'presidential' thing to say. I know, nor is sh-t, but that word was not mentioned publicly in an open forum. Besides, IT happens.

Personally the term tryant is much maligned these days. Two thousand years ago it merely described a certain type of ruler and did not repersent any form of judgement about his behavior. In those days everybody was at least a tyrant- I know that Mithradites was even worse, at least one of the several Mithraditeses was.

Back to Saudi Arabia and the 21st Century: A teacher in the Saudi city of Jeddah had to finally call in the cops. Alarabiya TV reports today that this teacher was contacted by someone from Africa and told that some 'Jinn', evil spirits to you kaffir infidels, are in possession of his life and his destiny, unbeknown to him. He was to pay a sum of money to be rid of the pesky spirits and somehow find some old treasures belonging to an ancestor of his. The man, now good and greedy, was strung along, and ended up paying huge sums of money either by wire transfer or directly to the agents of this 'African' shaikh. In the end, when they failed to come up with maps to the purported treasure, he went to to police. I wonder what magnet madrassah- this innocuous term is a school to most of you- he taught at.

Cheers
Mohammed

The Iranian Front, Iraq's Flag, Russia and the Salafis

Analysis and Comment

The Iranian Front:
Alarabiya TV quotes the British media that Israel has appointed a General to lead a newly-created unit for an 'Iranian Front'. The station quotes some experts as saying that Israel now considers Iran its 'main strategic enemy'. The report also claims that Israel feels that it now has the last two years of the Bush administration to do something about Iran- either unilaterally or perhaps in cooperation with the US.
I believe it is highly unlikely that Israel will take any action, if it intends to, against Iran without cooperation from the United States. The United States is now effectively the master and gatekeepr of the Arab World- American power now controls all the skies, the seas, and the landmass of the Middle East, with the exception of Iran. Israel's air force must pass through 'American territory' to get across the Persian Gulf or the Zagross Mountains.

For all the commentary and analyses about the blunders of the Bush administration in the Arab World, starting with Iraq and neglect of the Palestine issue, it now looks like the United States is more in control of the Arab World than ever before. Even the British in their imeperial days had to share power with the French and some independent local dynasties in Iran, Saudi Arabia and even North Yemen. No power has ever had so much control of the area to the east and south of the Mediterranean, not since the Roman Empire. The only attempt to challenge this Pax Americana seems to come from Iran, the same source of the major challenge to the Roman hegemony two millennia ago. Right now it does not look like this challenge will have any better luck than the ancient one. For one, the packaging is not very attractive, and the substance within the package is probably not acceptable to many people in the region.

Talks in Lebanon:
In Lebanon, the UN's Kofi Annan confirms reports aired days ago on the Arabic Aljazeera TV of indirect negotiations between Israel and Hizballah for an exchange of prisoners. The Saudi-owned Alarabiya TV reports, somewhat gleefully, that Qatar Air will be the first air carrier to fly directly to Beirut without stopping in Amman for inspections by Jordanian security on behalf of Israel. It also claims that Qatar has made the special arrangements directly with Israel. So far Qatar is the only Persian Gulf country which has an Israeli representative office in its capital, something that will likely expand to include a couple of others, probably UAE and Oman. within the GCC Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain are more problematic in this regard- they are shy and reticent for political reasons and will take many more years.

Kurdish vs Baathist Flag:
In Iraq, the issue of lowering and banishing the old Baath flag in Kurdistan is escalating for now, but will most likely fizzle to nothing. The PM, Al-malki has said that the national flag should be raised all over the country. Sunni politicians threaten to start a political campaign aimed at keeping the flag which still seems to carry Saddam Hussein's handwriting. The Kurds claim they willl be happy to raise the very first republican Iraqi flag on national occasions- that was the flag that preceded the first Baath coup in 1963. The Sunnis have a strong attachment to the Baath flag, because it plays to their own and the country's once-strong pan-Arab orientation when they controlled Iraq for decades. In the end the Kurds will win the argument since the Iraqi Constitution stipulates a new national flag. Besides, the opponents have no leverage.

Gulf Fundamentalists and Russia:
Russia has listed two major Kuwaiti non-profit organizations as terrorist organizations. One is the Jamiyat el-Islah, the Social Reform Society (aka the local Moslem Brotherhood), the other one is even more problematic, it is the Islamic Heritage Revival Society (aka Salafis). The latter was the local cheerleader for the Taliban before 9/11. The Russians clearly at the least suspect their involvement in financing the troubles in Chechnya. These two organizations are the strongest political 'parties' in Kuwait because they were the only ones that were allowed to operate freely during the 1970s and 1980s. They have several members in the cabinet.
The U.S. Treasury Department has in the past designated the Pakistani and Afghan branches of the Islamic Heritage Revival Society (the Salaf of Kuwait) as terrorist networks.

Cheers,
Mohammed

Al-Qaida Needs New Rags, Lebanon Blockaded, Saudi Man Cuts Own 'Cord'

Al-Qaeda Feels Left Out:
Ayman Al-Zawahiri released another video-clip, lest the world forgets him, hiding so far in the rugged tribal lands of Pakistan while Hassan Nassrallah enjoys the limelight and the ambience of Beirut. He invited the American people to convert to Islam. No takers so far. I think he might have better luck if he changes his attire, perhaps to something that does not immediately evoke in some American minds a certain derogatory term related to loose clothes. Has the man never seen these other elders (the kaffir equivalent of shaikhs), the clean-looking fershly-scrubbed Mormon boys and (gasp) girls? And I thought they went everywhere.

Lebanon Blockaded:
The Lebanese Asembly Speaker, Nabih Berri, who also heads the Shi'a Amal (Hope) movement, has called for Lebanese parliamentarians to stage a protest over the continued Israeli blockade of his country.

Middle East reports indicate that the Israeli blockade covers air traffic as well as sea and land movements. Apparently all airliners heading for Beirut airport must now land first in Amman, Jordan for inspection before being allowed to fly into Lebanon. Arab commentators who care to comment on this complain that basically Jordan is playing the role of Israeli inspectors or security agents. All Arab governments have so far avoided this thorny issue in the good old-fashioned Arab way, by simply ignoring it. Some insane Arab commentators have suggested that all Arab leaders should get into a plane and fly into Beirut without stopping in Amman for the mandatory inspection. So far there are no takers.

Iraq:
Looks like a cabinet reshuffle is in the cards for Iraq. It is highly unlikely that the partisan or sectarian mix will change. Arab media also report that former US Secretary of State James Baker is heading a special group charged by President Bush with assessing US policy in Iraq. The reports said that Baker is currently in Iraq holding meetings with top leaders. But if this is true, can he repeat his succeses before Desert Storm (90/91) and in Florida (2000)?

Ayatollah Sistani has warned the Iraqi government that the state must control the security situation, otherwise others might fill the vacuum.


Oil Prices and Reform:
Gulf news reports indicate that the price of Persian Gulf crude is now at the low $60s. That should have no immediate budgetary effect, since the price used for budget planning is much lower than that. The lower oil prices should have positive long-term effects, though- under other circumstances they might force serious attention to economic and fiscal reforms. Usually, when oil prices are lower, the talk of reform escalates, but all is forgotten when prices move up, which they inevitably do, in terms of current dollars.


Saudi Man Cuts own Manhood:
Alarabiya.net reports that a 28 year old man in Saudi Arabia stood up in a mosque during the early morning prayers and made a brief speech to the congregation. He told them that people should be respectful and should cut off any part of their body that moves during prayers. The man took off his clothes as he talked, then he took out a sharp instrument and cut off his penis. reports indicate that the young man had been married three times and that all his marriages had ended in divorce. reports also said that the same mosque witnessed a similar event about a year earlier. Must be something in the water.

Cheers,
Mohammed

Uneasy Peace in lebanon, War Drums On the Persian Gulf

News and Commentary

It seems that the war of words over Lebanon has been toned down in most of the Arab media. There are exceptions however, including some dailies in Kuwait and one or two Saudi newspapers, and the London-based alquds alarabi, which takes the opposite view. A recent trend in the Gulf emirates has been to enlist professors at local universities to write opinion pieces on this issue that support the editorial positions of the newspapers. Presumably this is supposed to have more influence on public opinion, although I have my own serious doubts.

Arab media mention reports of mediation on an exchange of prisoners between Lebanon and Israel. The reports claim, alternately, that Italy and Germany are involved. Hassan Nassrallah, leader of Hezballah, has also hinted of 'negotiations' in recent days.

Some daily tabloids in the smaller emirates of the Persian Gulf region are beating the drums of war, all but urging a US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. This is especially true of two tabloids in war-weary Kuwait of all places. However, this is not the case with most of the media in the region. One of the tabloids, alseyassah, claims on its front page (September 1) that an Iranian plot has been uncovered to start a massive terror campaign on the Arab side of the Gulf. It ties the plot to some top Hizbollah operatives, whom it claims have disappeared from the radar and might be in place for such a campaign. In other words, a Shi'a (Shiite to the infidels) version of the Sunni Salafi terror campaign that has plagued democratic Iraq. No other media sources in the region have carried this story. The same tabloid claimed last week that the US was planning a coup in Baghdad to overthrow the elected government and appoint Iyad Allawi as leader, with some former Baathist general as military commander. A news item like this, even though most likely fabricated by the editors, does not exactly enhance Mr. Allawi's chances of a political comeback.

A sign of things to come: reports indicate that Mr Barzani, president of Iraqi Kurdistan, has ordered that only the Kurdish flag is to be raised on official buildings. The Alarabiya TV reports that he has ordered all Iraqi flags removed.

In Bahrain, Alarabiya TV quotes opposition figures as claiming that the Sunni rulers of the heavily Shi'a island (70-75%) are working to change the population mix by giving citizenship to thousands of Arabs and Asians. In the Gulf emirates, the issue of nationality and naturalization of foreigners is in the hands of the Minister of Interior (sort of like Attorney general in the USA or Home Secretary in the UK), who is always a powerful member of the ruling family. Bahrain has been plagued by high unemployment and discontent among the Shi'a majority for years.

In Egypt, there has been criticisms of the two funerals for the late Nobel Laureate Naguib Mahfouz. One funeral was held in an upscale part of Cairo, and was oddly a military service attended by the President and high offficials. The other funeral was held in his old modest neighborhood, in the poorer section of Cairo, near where he grew up and wrote his masterpieces. It is still not clear why a military service for a man who never served in the military.

Cheers
MHG