(This item was originally posted on my website)
Iranian Sting:
Arab media are buzzing with excitement, widely quoting a Russian press report that the United States has set April 6th as the date to attack Iranian installations. In the past, media expectations have ranged from merely surgical attacks on suspected nuclear sites to WWII-style carpet bombing of the infra-structure. The farther one gets from the Persian Gulf, the more limited the operation gets according to local media, perhaps reflecting reduced tensions and other baggage. Most Gulf media have fully expected an armageddon-style assault that will put an end to the mullah theocracy...but that is clearly a severe case of wishful thinking. Lately, though, some hawkish newspapers have been playing a dirge, lamenting the possibility of an unlikely Iranian-American detente that could divide up the area into spheres of influence, save lives, as well as, oy vey (that would mean heaven forbid in this context), cement the structural changes in Iraqi politics. On va voir.
The reports claim the raids will last from dawn until dusk (and it ain't even Ramadan yet), and that they will target at least 20 'secret' Iranian nuclear and military sites, using missiles and bombers. The operation is supposed to delay Iran's nuclear program by 5 to 7 years. Called 'The Sting', the operation will not be a scam-within-a-scam, and will not star Paul Newman and Robert Redford, or Robert Shaw. It will, however, be in the thick of Prohibition, so to speak. Hopefuly, this time the operation will be based on more than offshore intelligence from some Iranian exiles. And no spectacular 'slam dunk' this time, eh?
Whatever happened to the genteel old days, with their genteel and discreet good old ways.....as in 'Operation Ajax' of 1953? Imagine the insult of those genteel methods, using a Greek name for a Tehran operation. Unless it was innocently named for a cleanser. But then, hey, either way it worked...for a quarter of a century exactly.
Sadr City:
While American officials hint at, and the media stress, that the operation in Sadr City is friendlier than previously thought, Muqtada al-Sadr is grumbling about American occupation again. He has complaind of a campaign of lies and rumors spread by the occupation. Perhaps he wants to stay in practice....he needs his own unpredictable and violent Cato, like a chubby young Clauseau in Mesopotamia. Or perhaps he is content to see American armor pummel the Sunni Jihadists on the outskirts of Baghdad and beyond, but still needs to keep al-Maliki on his toes.
Saudi Arabia and the Cup:
The Saudi Soccer Federation has done it again. They just fired their Brazilian coach, and hired another Brazilian coach. The Suadis have been hiring and firing foreign football (soccer) coaches at an amazing rate over the past two decades. The average tenure for a coach for the past decade has been about one year or less: that is not long enough for him to know every player's name, let alone convert from Catholicism. With all that oil money, you'd think they would be able to buy a cup....a World Cup, an Asian Cup, a Gulf Cup.....a Starbucks latte...any cup. But they are not alone- the older Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lost ground in sports for ten years now. Newcomers like UAE, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain are the leaders- perhaps because their sports bureaucracies have not had time to become as corrupt, not yet. Perhaps it is time to fire the royal princes who always run the sports federations in these states like feudal fiefdoms, and keep the Brazilian coaches??
Cheers
Mohammed
Friday, March 16, 2007
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
The Middle East's Fuzzy Math, Swordsmen of Arabia
Iraq's Wars:
Iraqi, and Arab, media reports that there is a mini inter-Sunni civil war going on in al-Anbar province. Al-Anbar is the hotbed of the insurgency that rejects the results of the Iraqi elections. It is a multi-faceted insurgency (this word, insurgency, by the way, is a politically correct, polite, and now Washington-sanctioned name for a violent terrorist campaign that blows up civilians and chops off heads in front of the camera). It looks like al-Qaeda in Iraq has been pushing hard to enforce its new Islamic Emirate (no oil their, though), and has been stepping on some big tribal tails, or toes, depending on the particular tribe in question. Some tribal sheikhs are objecting to this usurpation of their authority, and some heads have been rolling, literally.
It is also very likely that large amounts of money have been changing hands, just to bolster the resolve and the backbone of these tribal sheikhs. It would make the 'resistance' much more palatable inside Iraq and in the West if it could get rid of the political and cultural baggage of al-Qaeda and its Salafi allies.
Muqtada al-Sadr has been cooperating after all, in his own volatile way, with the 'surge', a.k.a the Baghdad Security Plan. The Iraqis and the coalition are negotiating with the hairy cherub now to open a manned security zone in al-Sadr city.
Playing Second Fiddle:
While Iran's Ahmadinejad was flying into Riyadh for a Big Two meeting on Lebanon, Palestine, and sectarianism, Egyptian officials were busy publicizing President Mubarak's role in the region, especially his contacts with Assad of Syria- these would be the Little Two of the new Middle East equation. So, the Big Two meet in Riyadh, the newly anointed capital of the Arab World, while the Little Two meet nowhere: they exchange calls and letters.
Apparently the Egyptians are not happy with their new role as second-fiddle to the petro-potentates. The stagnant country ruled by (Leonid) Mubarak is not nearly as pivotal in regional policy-making as it was under his bold predecessors, Nasser and Sadat, when it was the undisputed Arab leader.
Speaking of second fiddles, an editorial in the Syrian official daily Tishrin (all newspapers are official in Syria, as in most Arab states- in some states they are merely semi-official, whatever that means), emphasized the deep roots and durability of Syrian-Iranian relations, dating back a quarter century to the Iran-Iraq War. This was probably a response to publicized attempts to wean Syria away from its alliance with Iran.
Libya will not attend the Arab Summit in Riyadh this month. The Libyans are using a procedural point, in that the last Arab summit had decided on Sharm El-Shaikh (does not say the sharm of which shaikh) in Egypt as a permamant venue, and that only a whole Arab summit can change that, not an agreement among the Saudis and Egyptians. They probably have a valid point, if they are into this sort of hair-splitting.
Fuzzy Arab Math:
A summit of seven Moslem countries will also be held in Mecca, after the Arab summit. This meeting will join leaders of what is dubbed 'The Sunni Alliance', including Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia and Indonesia- it has pointedly left out Iran, which makes for a much less interesting, albeit less contentious, summit.
The Middle East, especially the Arab part of it, is undergoing a flurry of summits these days of various groups and myriad cross-alliances. It is becoming mind-boggling, if you like cliches. It is almost impossible for most people to keep track of the many varieties of these multi-layered, sometimes almost incestous, Arab alliances that often cannibalize each other: the 22, the 7, the 6, the 4, the 6+2 (is it not easier just to say the 8?), the Big 2, the Little 2. Some would say that we should add one more to each category, since they contend that the United States is either an invisible partner, or is actually pulling all the strings of these groups: the 22, the 7, the 6, the 4, the 6+2 (that would be eight), etc. Then we should talk of the 22+1 (=23), the 7+1 (=8), the 4+1 (=5), the 6+1 (=7), the 6+2+1 (is that 9?). Or perhaps we should put the Arab cart behind the horse's behind and just say 1+22, 1+7,....etc. And we haven't started talking of the Maghreb (that is North Africa) yet. Game theory anyone?
Headless in Arabia:
The Alhayat Daily had an interesting interview with Saudi Aarbia's top swordsman, that is the state executioner who lops off heads in public squares. He does that every Friday after the noon prayers, just before his audiences head home for the traditional weekend lunch of roast camel and braised lamb, with all the fixin's. The man claims he has chopped off 3500 heads in the past quarter century- and he is not the only executioner in the country. He claims that he once chopped off the heads of twenty convicts in one day, and he might be telling the truth: records show that in one day in 1989, 16 Kuwaiti Shi'as convicted of security crimes were beheaded in Riyadh- and their families are reported to have heard about it in the usual fashion, from the media. Add to that the usual assortment of foreign laborers, vengeful abused Asian housemaids, and those accused of witchcraft or having intercourse with the djinn, and the number could easily go up to twenty in one day.
Last week, international human rights groups complained bitterly when Saudi authorities executed four Sri Lankan laborers for robbery, then left their headless bodies on display in public for some time. The groups claim that the hapless headless workers were denied legal council and subjected to beatings while in custody. It is not clear how many of those the Ace Swordsman himself dispatched. Does he get a Golden Noose on retirement? I think the man is angling for a Saudi Purple Heart.
Any MLB team looking for a good pitcher with strong arms and an awesome resume these days can contact the London-based Saudi newspaper al-Hayat.
Cheers
Mohammed
Iraqi, and Arab, media reports that there is a mini inter-Sunni civil war going on in al-Anbar province. Al-Anbar is the hotbed of the insurgency that rejects the results of the Iraqi elections. It is a multi-faceted insurgency (this word, insurgency, by the way, is a politically correct, polite, and now Washington-sanctioned name for a violent terrorist campaign that blows up civilians and chops off heads in front of the camera). It looks like al-Qaeda in Iraq has been pushing hard to enforce its new Islamic Emirate (no oil their, though), and has been stepping on some big tribal tails, or toes, depending on the particular tribe in question. Some tribal sheikhs are objecting to this usurpation of their authority, and some heads have been rolling, literally.
It is also very likely that large amounts of money have been changing hands, just to bolster the resolve and the backbone of these tribal sheikhs. It would make the 'resistance' much more palatable inside Iraq and in the West if it could get rid of the political and cultural baggage of al-Qaeda and its Salafi allies.
Muqtada al-Sadr has been cooperating after all, in his own volatile way, with the 'surge', a.k.a the Baghdad Security Plan. The Iraqis and the coalition are negotiating with the hairy cherub now to open a manned security zone in al-Sadr city.
Playing Second Fiddle:
While Iran's Ahmadinejad was flying into Riyadh for a Big Two meeting on Lebanon, Palestine, and sectarianism, Egyptian officials were busy publicizing President Mubarak's role in the region, especially his contacts with Assad of Syria- these would be the Little Two of the new Middle East equation. So, the Big Two meet in Riyadh, the newly anointed capital of the Arab World, while the Little Two meet nowhere: they exchange calls and letters.
Apparently the Egyptians are not happy with their new role as second-fiddle to the petro-potentates. The stagnant country ruled by (Leonid) Mubarak is not nearly as pivotal in regional policy-making as it was under his bold predecessors, Nasser and Sadat, when it was the undisputed Arab leader.
Speaking of second fiddles, an editorial in the Syrian official daily Tishrin (all newspapers are official in Syria, as in most Arab states- in some states they are merely semi-official, whatever that means), emphasized the deep roots and durability of Syrian-Iranian relations, dating back a quarter century to the Iran-Iraq War. This was probably a response to publicized attempts to wean Syria away from its alliance with Iran.
Libya will not attend the Arab Summit in Riyadh this month. The Libyans are using a procedural point, in that the last Arab summit had decided on Sharm El-Shaikh (does not say the sharm of which shaikh) in Egypt as a permamant venue, and that only a whole Arab summit can change that, not an agreement among the Saudis and Egyptians. They probably have a valid point, if they are into this sort of hair-splitting.
Fuzzy Arab Math:
A summit of seven Moslem countries will also be held in Mecca, after the Arab summit. This meeting will join leaders of what is dubbed 'The Sunni Alliance', including Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia and Indonesia- it has pointedly left out Iran, which makes for a much less interesting, albeit less contentious, summit.
The Middle East, especially the Arab part of it, is undergoing a flurry of summits these days of various groups and myriad cross-alliances. It is becoming mind-boggling, if you like cliches. It is almost impossible for most people to keep track of the many varieties of these multi-layered, sometimes almost incestous, Arab alliances that often cannibalize each other: the 22, the 7, the 6, the 4, the 6+2 (is it not easier just to say the 8?), the Big 2, the Little 2. Some would say that we should add one more to each category, since they contend that the United States is either an invisible partner, or is actually pulling all the strings of these groups: the 22, the 7, the 6, the 4, the 6+2 (that would be eight), etc. Then we should talk of the 22+1 (=23), the 7+1 (=8), the 4+1 (=5), the 6+1 (=7), the 6+2+1 (is that 9?). Or perhaps we should put the Arab cart behind the horse's behind and just say 1+22, 1+7,....etc. And we haven't started talking of the Maghreb (that is North Africa) yet. Game theory anyone?
Headless in Arabia:
The Alhayat Daily had an interesting interview with Saudi Aarbia's top swordsman, that is the state executioner who lops off heads in public squares. He does that every Friday after the noon prayers, just before his audiences head home for the traditional weekend lunch of roast camel and braised lamb, with all the fixin's. The man claims he has chopped off 3500 heads in the past quarter century- and he is not the only executioner in the country. He claims that he once chopped off the heads of twenty convicts in one day, and he might be telling the truth: records show that in one day in 1989, 16 Kuwaiti Shi'as convicted of security crimes were beheaded in Riyadh- and their families are reported to have heard about it in the usual fashion, from the media. Add to that the usual assortment of foreign laborers, vengeful abused Asian housemaids, and those accused of witchcraft or having intercourse with the djinn, and the number could easily go up to twenty in one day.
Last week, international human rights groups complained bitterly when Saudi authorities executed four Sri Lankan laborers for robbery, then left their headless bodies on display in public for some time. The groups claim that the hapless headless workers were denied legal council and subjected to beatings while in custody. It is not clear how many of those the Ace Swordsman himself dispatched. Does he get a Golden Noose on retirement? I think the man is angling for a Saudi Purple Heart.
Any MLB team looking for a good pitcher with strong arms and an awesome resume these days can contact the London-based Saudi newspaper al-Hayat.
Cheers
Mohammed
Monday, March 05, 2007
Sunnis, Shi'as, al--Qaeda and Despots for Democracy
Absolute Democracy:
In her statement to a Senate committe yesterday, Secretary Condoleezza Rice said that the administration is mobilizing allies, what she called the GCC+2 (that would be the six Persian Gulf monarchies plus poor relations Egypt and Jordan) to 'support embattled democracies' in the region. She rightly listed the embattled democracies as Iraq, the Palestinian Territory, and Lebanon. I wonder if any of the senators noted the irony of mobilizing all these absolute monarchs, potentates, and life-time dictators to support nascent democracies that they not-so-secretly wish would just go away.
The Iraqi government has sent out invitations to a regional meeting in Baghdad later in March. It has invited all her six immediate neighbors as well as the premanent members of the UN Security Council, the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Countries, possibly the EU, etc. It is not yet known if such NGO's as al-Qaeda, The Salafi Islamic Heritage Revival, the KKK, Jean-Marie Le Pin, and the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy will also be included.
The meeting will be watched mainly because it will bring the United States and Iran face to face in Iraq, to discuss Iraq. Perhaps it will be like watching Rhett and Scarlett: the rest, especially the Arab representatives, will be like those faceless extras of long ago. Jaw jaw beats war war, but don't hold your breath for a spectacular breakthrough.
In another possibly positive development, Iraqi Vice President Tareq al-Hashimi, will visit Tehran in early March. Al-Hashimi is the highest ranking Sunni Arab in the Iraqi government.
Iran, the Shi'as, and McCarthy:
The regime in Iran clearly presents a threat to U.S interests in the Middle East. There definitely is a more intense and open rivalry now for influence in the vacuous (no, not a typo) region between Washington and Tehran. It seems that the twenty Arab states are out of the game, mere footnotes in this struggle. True, they do make the right noises occasionally (for example: Egypt and Jordan), and they do use their financial clout (Saudi Arabia), but they have lost the initiative in their own region for some time now.
Yet Washington seems to be committing one serious mistake: it is giving the impression of condoning, at least tacitly, the revival of a virulent anti-Shi'a sectarian campaign across the Middle East. At least that is the impression Arab media would give their audiences. Most Arab headlines in the Middle East are not about 'anti-Iranian' alliances, but of 'anti-Shi'a' alliances, or alliances to stem the 'Shi'a tide'. Except there is no such tide, it is a myth, as much as the imminent threat of a Communist takeover of the United States was in the early 1950s. Several Arab governments, three of them among those GCC+2 mentioned above, have stoked this dangerous sectarian fire with some irresponsible public statements at the very highest levels of government.
The goal is understandable: to reduce and stem Iranian influence. The tactic used over the past several months has been Machiavillian and short-sighted, if anything. It has put the non-Iraqi Shi'a Arabs, most of them in the Gulf and Lebanon, in a few cases they form a plurality or a majority of the population, under suspicion, and in the cross hairs of Salafi/Wahhabi Jihadists and other intolerant groups. And it pushes them to seek the safety and security of their co-religionists, even if they speak a different language. It encourages the Pakistani alumni of Saudi-financed Madrassah's to intensify their ongoing murderous sectarian campaign against the Shi'as of their country. It also plays nicely into the ideology of al-Qaeda and its Pashtun-dominated Taliban allies, who now seem to have all but established a new Emirate, with extensive training camps and all, along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border- perhaps with the blessings of the ISI. It is almost as if the results of the post 9/11 war effort are being reversed.
The Odd Visit:
Iran's Ahmadinejad sure knows how to improve his image around the world, he knows how to pick them. He is now visiting General Omar Hassan al-Basheer, leader of Sudan since the 1980's. al-Basheer is one of the most detested among Arab leaders, which is no mean achievement. Perhaps Mahmoud will take the time to visit Darfur, then head across the border into Chad, where Angelina Jolie is holding court at a refugee camp.
While in Sudan, he got carried away again, calling the 'zionists', a.k.a Israel, an 'impersonification of Satan'. For good measure, he also attacked the usual suspects: the United States and Britain. On the positive hand, Ahmadinejad is flying to Riyadh to meet with the Saudi king, probably to hash out things over the Lebanese and Palestinian impasses. The Saudis, cautious and diplomatic devils that they are, are not likely to provide him with a public forum to embarrass them or his own country.
Cheers
Mohammed
In her statement to a Senate committe yesterday, Secretary Condoleezza Rice said that the administration is mobilizing allies, what she called the GCC+2 (that would be the six Persian Gulf monarchies plus poor relations Egypt and Jordan) to 'support embattled democracies' in the region. She rightly listed the embattled democracies as Iraq, the Palestinian Territory, and Lebanon. I wonder if any of the senators noted the irony of mobilizing all these absolute monarchs, potentates, and life-time dictators to support nascent democracies that they not-so-secretly wish would just go away.
The Iraqi government has sent out invitations to a regional meeting in Baghdad later in March. It has invited all her six immediate neighbors as well as the premanent members of the UN Security Council, the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Countries, possibly the EU, etc. It is not yet known if such NGO's as al-Qaeda, The Salafi Islamic Heritage Revival, the KKK, Jean-Marie Le Pin, and the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy will also be included.
The meeting will be watched mainly because it will bring the United States and Iran face to face in Iraq, to discuss Iraq. Perhaps it will be like watching Rhett and Scarlett: the rest, especially the Arab representatives, will be like those faceless extras of long ago. Jaw jaw beats war war, but don't hold your breath for a spectacular breakthrough.
In another possibly positive development, Iraqi Vice President Tareq al-Hashimi, will visit Tehran in early March. Al-Hashimi is the highest ranking Sunni Arab in the Iraqi government.
Iran, the Shi'as, and McCarthy:
The regime in Iran clearly presents a threat to U.S interests in the Middle East. There definitely is a more intense and open rivalry now for influence in the vacuous (no, not a typo) region between Washington and Tehran. It seems that the twenty Arab states are out of the game, mere footnotes in this struggle. True, they do make the right noises occasionally (for example: Egypt and Jordan), and they do use their financial clout (Saudi Arabia), but they have lost the initiative in their own region for some time now.
Yet Washington seems to be committing one serious mistake: it is giving the impression of condoning, at least tacitly, the revival of a virulent anti-Shi'a sectarian campaign across the Middle East. At least that is the impression Arab media would give their audiences. Most Arab headlines in the Middle East are not about 'anti-Iranian' alliances, but of 'anti-Shi'a' alliances, or alliances to stem the 'Shi'a tide'. Except there is no such tide, it is a myth, as much as the imminent threat of a Communist takeover of the United States was in the early 1950s. Several Arab governments, three of them among those GCC+2 mentioned above, have stoked this dangerous sectarian fire with some irresponsible public statements at the very highest levels of government.
The goal is understandable: to reduce and stem Iranian influence. The tactic used over the past several months has been Machiavillian and short-sighted, if anything. It has put the non-Iraqi Shi'a Arabs, most of them in the Gulf and Lebanon, in a few cases they form a plurality or a majority of the population, under suspicion, and in the cross hairs of Salafi/Wahhabi Jihadists and other intolerant groups. And it pushes them to seek the safety and security of their co-religionists, even if they speak a different language. It encourages the Pakistani alumni of Saudi-financed Madrassah's to intensify their ongoing murderous sectarian campaign against the Shi'as of their country. It also plays nicely into the ideology of al-Qaeda and its Pashtun-dominated Taliban allies, who now seem to have all but established a new Emirate, with extensive training camps and all, along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border- perhaps with the blessings of the ISI. It is almost as if the results of the post 9/11 war effort are being reversed.
The Odd Visit:
Iran's Ahmadinejad sure knows how to improve his image around the world, he knows how to pick them. He is now visiting General Omar Hassan al-Basheer, leader of Sudan since the 1980's. al-Basheer is one of the most detested among Arab leaders, which is no mean achievement. Perhaps Mahmoud will take the time to visit Darfur, then head across the border into Chad, where Angelina Jolie is holding court at a refugee camp.
While in Sudan, he got carried away again, calling the 'zionists', a.k.a Israel, an 'impersonification of Satan'. For good measure, he also attacked the usual suspects: the United States and Britain. On the positive hand, Ahmadinejad is flying to Riyadh to meet with the Saudi king, probably to hash out things over the Lebanese and Palestinian impasses. The Saudis, cautious and diplomatic devils that they are, are not likely to provide him with a public forum to embarrass them or his own country.
Cheers
Mohammed
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Al-Qaeda Coming Back from the Cold, Iran and the Sunni Crescent, Jews in Egypt
Iran and the Bomb:
The Israeli daily Ha'aretz reported that Israel has received permission from three Arab states on the Persian Gulf to use their airspace in case she decides to bomb Iran. Qatar, UAE, and Oman were mentioned. The secretary general of the Arab League denied the charges.
Question: why single out these three Gulf states that do not have common borders with Israel? Any flight from Israel to the Gulf would have to cross the mother of all Arab airspaces, over Saudi Arabia.
Seymour M. Hersh reports in The New Yorker that the administration is planning to attack Iran- that it is folllowing a two-pronged strategy: it is building a case and trying to provoke the Iranian regime. He claims that a case is being made through revelations of Iranian arms shipments to the Shi'a militias. These weapons were reported by officials to have killed as many as 170 American troops in Iraq. So, then, tell us: whose weapons killed the rest, the other 2,900 brave young American men and women? And, at least as important: whose money has been funding the Salafi Jihadist groups responsible for those other 2900 killings and many more thousands of maimings?
The Al-Qaeda Embrace:
There is strong evidnce, only some of it anecdotal, of a mutant al-Qaeda that might fit for the time being with the goals of a mutating Arab strategy. Arab strategy noawadays means Saudi strategy. Al-Qaeda's resurgence, now clearly gathering steam, goes beyond its bases in al-Anbar province of Iraq, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The dormant war in Algeria seems to be reviving, with a new twist that points to new Saudi influence: there is much talk about the Shi'as and Shi'ism among Algeria's Salafis these days, and the Saudi-owned media like Alarabiya TV and Asharq Alawsat daily have echoed these grumblings. This in a country that has hardly any Shi'as and hardly knows anything, or cares, about that sect. Another area of new resurgence of al-Qaeda is peaceful, secular Morocco, where Jihadist activity has been picking up in recent months. This could be devastating for the economy of Morocco, which depends heavily on tourism.
A recent and bizzare twist involves some troubles in Yemen, where the Saudi-owned media now claim that a Zaidi (Shi'as) revolt is destabilising the country- which would mean the necessity of making peace with that country's extensive al-Qaeda network (remember the USS Cole?). One Saudi media outlet even reported that Iraqi and Iranian agents were uncovered as part of a plot to establish, get this : "a Persian state" in Yemen. Must be the desire to tap all that chewable green qat.
But it gets even more bizzare: the same Saudi media reported recently that some Islamic shaikhs in the Comorro Islands, off Eastern Africa, have publicly condemned, presumably to the very same Saudi media, attempts to spread Shi'ism in that country. Even in Lebanon, the normally secular and cosmopolitan Sunnis are being targeted. New, shadowy Salafi/Wahhabi groups are sprouting faster than the petro-dollars and the Hariri billions can finance them. Which means that, like in Iraq, the most educated Sunnis, among others, will come under unbearable pressure. Which would mean that now both secular Sunnis and secular Shi'as who, along with the Maronite Christians, formed the backbone of Lebanese stabilty, will have to take sides or leave the country. Unless they are willing to Saudi-ize or Irani-ize.
Not only Seymour Hersh, but other evidence over the past few months point to a possible re-emergence of a tri-partite Saudi-Jihadist alliance, with the United States as the third, perhaps somewhat reluctant, partner. But will al-Qaeda be happy back in the Wahhabi bosom of its genesis? And for how long?
A meeting of foreign ministers of seven mainly Sunni Moslem states was held in Islamabad Sunday. The Arab League claimed that the meeting was to discuss the "Arab peace plan", and did not mean to exclude large Shi'a states, like Iran and Iraq. The meeting included such members of the Sunni Crescent as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, as well as al-Qaeda-hosting Pakistan and European-aspiring Turkey.
Retro in Egypt:
In Egypt, the secretay general of the Higher Council on Antiquity, is bringing charges against a private school in Cairo- because part of its curriculum material claims that Jews helped build the Pyramids, and that they were persecuted (shocking,this last assertion). I could have sworn that the Holy Quran also says that Jews were persecuted in Egypt, with the staff of Moses changing into a snake and all that, although it does not mention the pyramids. The man claims that the pyramids were completely built by Egyptians, Charlton Heston and Cecil B. de Mille notwithstanding, and that they considered it a "project of national pride", which is a new PC take on an old slavery issue.
Cheers
Mohammed
The Israeli daily Ha'aretz reported that Israel has received permission from three Arab states on the Persian Gulf to use their airspace in case she decides to bomb Iran. Qatar, UAE, and Oman were mentioned. The secretary general of the Arab League denied the charges.
Question: why single out these three Gulf states that do not have common borders with Israel? Any flight from Israel to the Gulf would have to cross the mother of all Arab airspaces, over Saudi Arabia.
Seymour M. Hersh reports in The New Yorker that the administration is planning to attack Iran- that it is folllowing a two-pronged strategy: it is building a case and trying to provoke the Iranian regime. He claims that a case is being made through revelations of Iranian arms shipments to the Shi'a militias. These weapons were reported by officials to have killed as many as 170 American troops in Iraq. So, then, tell us: whose weapons killed the rest, the other 2,900 brave young American men and women? And, at least as important: whose money has been funding the Salafi Jihadist groups responsible for those other 2900 killings and many more thousands of maimings?
The Al-Qaeda Embrace:
There is strong evidnce, only some of it anecdotal, of a mutant al-Qaeda that might fit for the time being with the goals of a mutating Arab strategy. Arab strategy noawadays means Saudi strategy. Al-Qaeda's resurgence, now clearly gathering steam, goes beyond its bases in al-Anbar province of Iraq, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The dormant war in Algeria seems to be reviving, with a new twist that points to new Saudi influence: there is much talk about the Shi'as and Shi'ism among Algeria's Salafis these days, and the Saudi-owned media like Alarabiya TV and Asharq Alawsat daily have echoed these grumblings. This in a country that has hardly any Shi'as and hardly knows anything, or cares, about that sect. Another area of new resurgence of al-Qaeda is peaceful, secular Morocco, where Jihadist activity has been picking up in recent months. This could be devastating for the economy of Morocco, which depends heavily on tourism.
A recent and bizzare twist involves some troubles in Yemen, where the Saudi-owned media now claim that a Zaidi (Shi'as) revolt is destabilising the country- which would mean the necessity of making peace with that country's extensive al-Qaeda network (remember the USS Cole?). One Saudi media outlet even reported that Iraqi and Iranian agents were uncovered as part of a plot to establish, get this : "a Persian state" in Yemen. Must be the desire to tap all that chewable green qat.
But it gets even more bizzare: the same Saudi media reported recently that some Islamic shaikhs in the Comorro Islands, off Eastern Africa, have publicly condemned, presumably to the very same Saudi media, attempts to spread Shi'ism in that country. Even in Lebanon, the normally secular and cosmopolitan Sunnis are being targeted. New, shadowy Salafi/Wahhabi groups are sprouting faster than the petro-dollars and the Hariri billions can finance them. Which means that, like in Iraq, the most educated Sunnis, among others, will come under unbearable pressure. Which would mean that now both secular Sunnis and secular Shi'as who, along with the Maronite Christians, formed the backbone of Lebanese stabilty, will have to take sides or leave the country. Unless they are willing to Saudi-ize or Irani-ize.
Not only Seymour Hersh, but other evidence over the past few months point to a possible re-emergence of a tri-partite Saudi-Jihadist alliance, with the United States as the third, perhaps somewhat reluctant, partner. But will al-Qaeda be happy back in the Wahhabi bosom of its genesis? And for how long?
A meeting of foreign ministers of seven mainly Sunni Moslem states was held in Islamabad Sunday. The Arab League claimed that the meeting was to discuss the "Arab peace plan", and did not mean to exclude large Shi'a states, like Iran and Iraq. The meeting included such members of the Sunni Crescent as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, as well as al-Qaeda-hosting Pakistan and European-aspiring Turkey.
Retro in Egypt:
In Egypt, the secretay general of the Higher Council on Antiquity, is bringing charges against a private school in Cairo- because part of its curriculum material claims that Jews helped build the Pyramids, and that they were persecuted (shocking,this last assertion). I could have sworn that the Holy Quran also says that Jews were persecuted in Egypt, with the staff of Moses changing into a snake and all that, although it does not mention the pyramids. The man claims that the pyramids were completely built by Egyptians, Charlton Heston and Cecil B. de Mille notwithstanding, and that they considered it a "project of national pride", which is a new PC take on an old slavery issue.
Cheers
Mohammed
Friday, February 23, 2007
Saudis Unleash CACA, Sex Psych War in Iraq, Egyptian Madness
Iraq:
An Iraqi woman, who had warrants for her arrest, claims that she was raped by security officers, presumably Shi'as. The woman was arrested during a raid on a known insurgent house. The Sunni politicians quickly jumped in to support her claim, and seem to see in her some kind of a rallying cry, an opportunity. The Arab World has a long history of rallying to a captive woman's call for help, but Arab politicians have also often used women in this sense in order to enrage the 'street'. The Arab (Sunni) media have interviewed her, and the Shi'a media have noted that she was acting her part in a psychological war, that she was fully made up for the interview (on Aljazeera and Alarabiya TV), that she is being used as a pawn in a sectarian conflict. The Iraqi government has released hospital test results showing that she was not sexually assaulted, but some Sunni Arab media claim that tests show that she was raped. American military spokesmen, who accompany Iraqi unites on missions, are silent for now, pending an investigation. In any case, this will have no impact on the ongoing Battle for Baghdad.
Flying Pigs of Arabia:
Saudi Arabia's News Agency reports (Feb. 20) that the Saudi cabinet, headed by the king, has approved a 'National Strategy for the Protection of Honesty and Combatting Corruption'- now that is a mouthful. The report claimed that all officials, including the high officials will be held responsible for their actions. Which presumably means that heretofore they have not been held responsible for anything.
A new National Anti-Corruption Authority- the acronym NACA sounds very appropriate here- will follow up on the implementation of, what else, anti-corruption measures. A reminder: pigs never fly, not even in Arabia, where le jambon is not kosher to start with. Attached to the strategy is a measure that would restrict the employment of non-Saudis in the jewelry stores and workshops- although it is not clear how this would combat corruption. I could name a few more relevant measures, but then again, they will never be implemented. Besides, the head of NACA (this is a really easy acronym and sounds quite.....catchy) would lose at least his job if he follows my advice, which he won't.
Interesting Egyptian Vignette:
An economics professor at Egypt's Hilwan University started class one bright Egyptian morning by writing on the blackboard (they are still black over there): B'ism America Al-Azeema, In The Name of America the Great, instead of the usual Bismillah, In the Name of Allah. Then he refused to open a discussion with students on his strange behavior, instead asking for written questions, which he answered promptly, to the further outrage of his students. In his answers, he stated that he believed in the American Faith, and that he was free to choose his own religion, which further infuriated most of his students. The professor has been arrested and sent to a psychiatric hospital. The president of the university, to his credit, has suspended judgement, stating that the man might be sick and not responsible for his action.
Cheers
Mohammed
An Iraqi woman, who had warrants for her arrest, claims that she was raped by security officers, presumably Shi'as. The woman was arrested during a raid on a known insurgent house. The Sunni politicians quickly jumped in to support her claim, and seem to see in her some kind of a rallying cry, an opportunity. The Arab World has a long history of rallying to a captive woman's call for help, but Arab politicians have also often used women in this sense in order to enrage the 'street'. The Arab (Sunni) media have interviewed her, and the Shi'a media have noted that she was acting her part in a psychological war, that she was fully made up for the interview (on Aljazeera and Alarabiya TV), that she is being used as a pawn in a sectarian conflict. The Iraqi government has released hospital test results showing that she was not sexually assaulted, but some Sunni Arab media claim that tests show that she was raped. American military spokesmen, who accompany Iraqi unites on missions, are silent for now, pending an investigation. In any case, this will have no impact on the ongoing Battle for Baghdad.
Flying Pigs of Arabia:
Saudi Arabia's News Agency reports (Feb. 20) that the Saudi cabinet, headed by the king, has approved a 'National Strategy for the Protection of Honesty and Combatting Corruption'- now that is a mouthful. The report claimed that all officials, including the high officials will be held responsible for their actions. Which presumably means that heretofore they have not been held responsible for anything.
A new National Anti-Corruption Authority- the acronym NACA sounds very appropriate here- will follow up on the implementation of, what else, anti-corruption measures. A reminder: pigs never fly, not even in Arabia, where le jambon is not kosher to start with. Attached to the strategy is a measure that would restrict the employment of non-Saudis in the jewelry stores and workshops- although it is not clear how this would combat corruption. I could name a few more relevant measures, but then again, they will never be implemented. Besides, the head of NACA (this is a really easy acronym and sounds quite.....catchy) would lose at least his job if he follows my advice, which he won't.
Interesting Egyptian Vignette:
An economics professor at Egypt's Hilwan University started class one bright Egyptian morning by writing on the blackboard (they are still black over there): B'ism America Al-Azeema, In The Name of America the Great, instead of the usual Bismillah, In the Name of Allah. Then he refused to open a discussion with students on his strange behavior, instead asking for written questions, which he answered promptly, to the further outrage of his students. In his answers, he stated that he believed in the American Faith, and that he was free to choose his own religion, which further infuriated most of his students. The professor has been arrested and sent to a psychiatric hospital. The president of the university, to his credit, has suspended judgement, stating that the man might be sick and not responsible for his action.
Cheers
Mohammed
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Muqtada al-Sadr Plays Waldo, Allawi Goes Global- Uncle Sam, The Ayatollahs and Gulf ED
Iraq: so, what else is new?:
Muqtada Al-Sadr has gone AWOL. While a U.S. military spokesman confirms that the mysterious Shi'a leader has gone to Iran, a Sadrista spokesman has denied that assertion, claiming that Muqtada is at his home in Najaf. An Iraqi official now claims that Muqtada is on a visit to Iran, just a normal visit. (This is increasingly resembling the Anna Nicole Smith paternity confusion). Some in the Arab, as well as American, media speculate that he is just laying low, waiting for the 'surge' to run its course. Of course, there is always an outside chance that we could all be pleasantly surprised and the much-maligned surge may succeed. But then again, that all depends on the ultimate goals of the surge, just how modest or how audacious they are.
Meanwhile, London based daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi reports that former Interim Prime Minister Ayyad Allawi has renewed his proposed plan, yes again, to stabilize Iraq. Not surprisingly, the plan calls, again, for a 'unity government' and declaring martial law for two years. That would mean suspending the constitution. The Shi'a alliance quickly rejected the plan as extra-constitutional, which it is. So far, the Kurds have not dignified it with a response. In fact the proposal is way extra-constitutional, a retro plan, like totally Ba'athist, and the ruling coalition noted that it would require arbitrarily undoing the electoral process, i.e, defying the will of the electorate that risked life and limb to vote (remember the purple-stained fingers raised proudly in Baghdad and at the Capitol in Washington?). An Allawi ally stated that Allawi presented his proposal to the United States government, the Arab League, the OIC, and the Gulf Coopertaion Council- just to make sure that it will be rejected by the ruling coalition and probably by most Iraqis. It is not clear if Allawi consulted with his elected government before approaching unelected foreign governments and potentates with his plan- but then, hey, this is the Arab Middle East.
Uncle Sam, The Mullahs, and the Salafis:
The US will send a third aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf, an unprecedented move that will literally choke the narrow waterway. Many in the Middle East interpret this as a sure sign that the Bush administration plans to strike at Iran. This, of course may be part of the fog and smoke of war. Some claim the U.S. is already involved in operations against Iran, that it is arming and financing groups opposed to the clerical regime in Tehran as a retaliation for Iranian involvement in Iraq. Still, outside the Arab World, there seems to be a shift toward a concensus opinion that there will be no war. Within the Arab region, the consencus is for war, with some in the media in the Persian Gulf states doing some saber rattling, rattling the American saber of course, since their own sabers are miniscule on account of intestinal and moral ED. The vulnerable Gulf states worry about being caught in the violence of a new war, although, oddly enough, the most vociferous proponents of a U.S. attack on Iran are prominent Salafi Jihadist types in some of the GCC countries that border Iraq. These are the soul mates of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Perhaps this is to avenge the Iranian support of the U.S invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 that led to deposing the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, or perhaps it is a case of 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend, for now'.
You Figure This One Out:
An Iraqi newspaper reports that the Israeli government has advised all Israeli citizens in Iraq to leave that country and not return.
Cheers
Mohammed
Muqtada Al-Sadr has gone AWOL. While a U.S. military spokesman confirms that the mysterious Shi'a leader has gone to Iran, a Sadrista spokesman has denied that assertion, claiming that Muqtada is at his home in Najaf. An Iraqi official now claims that Muqtada is on a visit to Iran, just a normal visit. (This is increasingly resembling the Anna Nicole Smith paternity confusion). Some in the Arab, as well as American, media speculate that he is just laying low, waiting for the 'surge' to run its course. Of course, there is always an outside chance that we could all be pleasantly surprised and the much-maligned surge may succeed. But then again, that all depends on the ultimate goals of the surge, just how modest or how audacious they are.
Meanwhile, London based daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi reports that former Interim Prime Minister Ayyad Allawi has renewed his proposed plan, yes again, to stabilize Iraq. Not surprisingly, the plan calls, again, for a 'unity government' and declaring martial law for two years. That would mean suspending the constitution. The Shi'a alliance quickly rejected the plan as extra-constitutional, which it is. So far, the Kurds have not dignified it with a response. In fact the proposal is way extra-constitutional, a retro plan, like totally Ba'athist, and the ruling coalition noted that it would require arbitrarily undoing the electoral process, i.e, defying the will of the electorate that risked life and limb to vote (remember the purple-stained fingers raised proudly in Baghdad and at the Capitol in Washington?). An Allawi ally stated that Allawi presented his proposal to the United States government, the Arab League, the OIC, and the Gulf Coopertaion Council- just to make sure that it will be rejected by the ruling coalition and probably by most Iraqis. It is not clear if Allawi consulted with his elected government before approaching unelected foreign governments and potentates with his plan- but then, hey, this is the Arab Middle East.
Uncle Sam, The Mullahs, and the Salafis:
The US will send a third aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf, an unprecedented move that will literally choke the narrow waterway. Many in the Middle East interpret this as a sure sign that the Bush administration plans to strike at Iran. This, of course may be part of the fog and smoke of war. Some claim the U.S. is already involved in operations against Iran, that it is arming and financing groups opposed to the clerical regime in Tehran as a retaliation for Iranian involvement in Iraq. Still, outside the Arab World, there seems to be a shift toward a concensus opinion that there will be no war. Within the Arab region, the consencus is for war, with some in the media in the Persian Gulf states doing some saber rattling, rattling the American saber of course, since their own sabers are miniscule on account of intestinal and moral ED. The vulnerable Gulf states worry about being caught in the violence of a new war, although, oddly enough, the most vociferous proponents of a U.S. attack on Iran are prominent Salafi Jihadist types in some of the GCC countries that border Iraq. These are the soul mates of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Perhaps this is to avenge the Iranian support of the U.S invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 that led to deposing the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, or perhaps it is a case of 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend, for now'.
You Figure This One Out:
An Iraqi newspaper reports that the Israeli government has advised all Israeli citizens in Iraq to leave that country and not return.
Cheers
Mohammed
Monday, February 12, 2007
Al-Zarqawi Redux, Islamic Fault Lines, Ethanol and Political Methane
Alfayhaa Iraqi Satellite TV reports (Feb. 12) that a Gulf GCC-Iraqi 'Council' is being discussed, and may be established next March. The report said the goal of the council is to promote Iraqi-Gulf relations, and reduce 'outside' intervention that 'tends to destabilize the region and affect its security'. The last one is a tall order, since everybody seems to interfere in Iraqi affairs these days, whether in the form of sending arms for the militias, or sending arms, money and men for the Jihadist Salafi terrorists. Then there is the other ultimate intervention: 'demands' that the Iraq constitution be changed- these demands are mostly by Arab countries that either do not have a constitution or trample theirs if they have one.
The Jordanian Salafi terrorist Ahmad Fadhil Nazzal al-Khalayleh, a.k.a Abu Musa'ab Al-Zarqawi, succeeded in one of his two main goals. He wanted to establish an Islamic 'Emirate' in Iraq, and that is not likely to be realized, not without oil, although the jury is still out. His other goal was publicized in his shocking famous message , displaying a breath-taking hatred of the Shi'as (Shi'ites) in a style reminiscent of the Third Reich. The Zarqawi letter of 2005 refers to the Shi'ites as "the overwhelming obstacle, the lurking snake, the crafty and malicious scorpion, the spying enemy, and the penetrating venom." It blames Shi'ites for "patent polytheism," "worshipping at graves,", "circumambulating shrines," and "insulting the mothers of the believers and the elite of this nation (I guess these elite would be the Sunni potentates?)."
He succeeded in pushing his expressed opinion of the Shi'as (Shiites) toward acceptance by the mainstream Sunni media, mostly along the sectarian fault lines in the Persian Gulf region where anti-Shi'a feelings have always been barely below the surface. The electoral rise of the Shi'as in Iraq and the growth of the violent militias in Baghdad as a counter to the Jihadist/Ba'athist terror, have exacerbated sectarian tensions in other countries, mainly the Gulf states and Lebanon, where the Shi'as form either a substantial minority, a plurality (Lebanon), or a majority (Bahrain). Surprisingly, the bulk of the Arab intellectual elite in the Gulf, or whatever stands for an intellectual elite, have lined up along sectarian fault lines. Free, perhaps imperfect, elections in Iraq, the freest in Arab history, are dismissed with calls for more 'sharing' of power. The demands are for more sharing of power, but only in Iraq. Perhaps there can be more 'sharing' of power along the shores of the Gulf and the Red Sea as well.
Speaking of sharing, the The Society for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, the powerful para-military, well sort of para-something, Islamic religious police of Saudi Arabia is cracking again on Valentine's Day. Their bearded, dour, visages can be seen in the markets, malls, restaurants, and wherever things are sold, making sure there are no pink, red, white or black hearts, no signs of celebration. Do these shaggy Mutawwa'een religious police know about Saint Valentine? That should make them redouble their efforts.
And wasn't that old King Abdullah himself in the midst of a love-fest in Mecca the other day? Weren't those pink and red roses at the kingly conference in Mecca that sealed the Palestinian accord to share the cake of power and aid money between Hamas and Fatah last week? Wasn't that Abu Mazzen kissing the "be my Valentine" Hamas leaders at the center of la vie en rose at Mecca? It looked like the Saudi royals and the Palestinian neo-potentates were celebrating Valentine's Day early, and in Mecca of all places.
Reports indicate that there is unrest in Mexico over the increased price of corn, a main staple for people in that country and in many other less developed countries. One culprit is the push for the use Ethanol as replacement for fossil fuels. Ethanol competes with the world's hungry for corn. Speaking of Ethanol, fuels, and gases: the Arab World has been blessed with abundant petroleum and natural gas, but its leaders have also been blessed with an abundance of that 'other natural gas': Methane, a.k.a CH4. The web site (ghgonline.org) claims that: "Global man-made methane emissions are estimated to total about 320 million tonnes each year". That is a lot of energy wasted in our part of the world. The U.S. EPA estimates that "Methane is emitted from a variety of both human-related (anthropogenic) and natural sources. Human-related activities include fossil fuel production, animal husbandry, enteric fermentation and manure management).......... and waste management." Interesting stuff.
Cheers
Mohammed
The Jordanian Salafi terrorist Ahmad Fadhil Nazzal al-Khalayleh, a.k.a Abu Musa'ab Al-Zarqawi, succeeded in one of his two main goals. He wanted to establish an Islamic 'Emirate' in Iraq, and that is not likely to be realized, not without oil, although the jury is still out. His other goal was publicized in his shocking famous message , displaying a breath-taking hatred of the Shi'as (Shi'ites) in a style reminiscent of the Third Reich. The Zarqawi letter of 2005 refers to the Shi'ites as "the overwhelming obstacle, the lurking snake, the crafty and malicious scorpion, the spying enemy, and the penetrating venom." It blames Shi'ites for "patent polytheism," "worshipping at graves,", "circumambulating shrines," and "insulting the mothers of the believers and the elite of this nation (I guess these elite would be the Sunni potentates?)."
He succeeded in pushing his expressed opinion of the Shi'as (Shiites) toward acceptance by the mainstream Sunni media, mostly along the sectarian fault lines in the Persian Gulf region where anti-Shi'a feelings have always been barely below the surface. The electoral rise of the Shi'as in Iraq and the growth of the violent militias in Baghdad as a counter to the Jihadist/Ba'athist terror, have exacerbated sectarian tensions in other countries, mainly the Gulf states and Lebanon, where the Shi'as form either a substantial minority, a plurality (Lebanon), or a majority (Bahrain). Surprisingly, the bulk of the Arab intellectual elite in the Gulf, or whatever stands for an intellectual elite, have lined up along sectarian fault lines. Free, perhaps imperfect, elections in Iraq, the freest in Arab history, are dismissed with calls for more 'sharing' of power. The demands are for more sharing of power, but only in Iraq. Perhaps there can be more 'sharing' of power along the shores of the Gulf and the Red Sea as well.
Speaking of sharing, the The Society for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, the powerful para-military, well sort of para-something, Islamic religious police of Saudi Arabia is cracking again on Valentine's Day. Their bearded, dour, visages can be seen in the markets, malls, restaurants, and wherever things are sold, making sure there are no pink, red, white or black hearts, no signs of celebration. Do these shaggy Mutawwa'een religious police know about Saint Valentine? That should make them redouble their efforts.
And wasn't that old King Abdullah himself in the midst of a love-fest in Mecca the other day? Weren't those pink and red roses at the kingly conference in Mecca that sealed the Palestinian accord to share the cake of power and aid money between Hamas and Fatah last week? Wasn't that Abu Mazzen kissing the "be my Valentine" Hamas leaders at the center of la vie en rose at Mecca? It looked like the Saudi royals and the Palestinian neo-potentates were celebrating Valentine's Day early, and in Mecca of all places.
Reports indicate that there is unrest in Mexico over the increased price of corn, a main staple for people in that country and in many other less developed countries. One culprit is the push for the use Ethanol as replacement for fossil fuels. Ethanol competes with the world's hungry for corn. Speaking of Ethanol, fuels, and gases: the Arab World has been blessed with abundant petroleum and natural gas, but its leaders have also been blessed with an abundance of that 'other natural gas': Methane, a.k.a CH4. The web site (ghgonline.org) claims that: "Global man-made methane emissions are estimated to total about 320 million tonnes each year". That is a lot of energy wasted in our part of the world. The U.S. EPA estimates that "Methane is emitted from a variety of both human-related (anthropogenic) and natural sources. Human-related activities include fossil fuel production, animal husbandry, enteric fermentation and manure management).......... and waste management." Interesting stuff.
Cheers
Mohammed
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Oprah and The Preppy Wahhabis, Iraq's Axis of Evil, A Persian Gulf Political Casserole
Oprah recently started a 'prep' school for select poor girls in South Africa. This admirable project is by nature centered on a selective group of girls, and unfortunately most of them will eventually end up in places where they are least needed: Western Europe or North America. But that will come much later, after they are educated and trained, with the media attention gone. Unlike that other source of free 'education' for the Moslim poor in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and for the Moslem middle classes in the West- the Wahabi oil-financed madrassas. Madrassa in Arabic simply means 'school', a term that has been attached to the largely Saudi-financed fundamentalist religious schools run by Wahabi/Salafi shaikhs around the world. That was the genesis of the Taliban movement, the word 'Taliban' being plural of 'Talib', a seeker of knowledge, a student. That might also explain why three countries quickly recognized the Taliban regime after it overthrew the bickering Afghan government: Saudi Arabia (the money bag), Pakistan (its notorious ISI being the mentor), and the United Arab Emirates (not clear how the moderate and cosmopolitan UAE fit into this axis of .....goodnes?).
In any case, Oprah's African girls should turn out fine, unless she hires Wahhabi teachers for her school, in which case they will turn into little preppy Wahhabettes.
Terrorist bombers struck in a Shi'a area in central Baghdad (the Sadriya district) today, killing more than 130 civilians and wounding hundreds more. Two days earlier, another terror bombing in the Shi'a town of al-Hilla killed 73 people. Iraq's government spokesman said a ton of explosives was loaded on a truck, and he hinted that the terrorists may heve sneaked into Iraq from Syria. Initial Arab reaction was calm and neutral.....headlines reported about 'bombings in Baghdad, many dead and wounded'. No condemnation so far: perhaps they are waiting for the now almost inevitable bloody retaliation by the militias before condemning....condemning the retaliation not the initial act itself. This was not labeled a 'sectarian' massacre, even though the victims were Shi'as and the modus operandi of the mass killings clearly pointed to the Wahabi/Salafi/Ba'athist axis of evil. It becomes 'sectarian' only when the Shi'a militias commit their own bloody atrocities.
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistant, meanwhile, called for calm and for avoiding doing anything that would raise sectarian tensions. Al-Sistani criticized those who issue fatwas against other sects and try to fan the flames of sectarianism among Moslems. Meanwhile, Salih al-Mutlak, head of the Sunni National Dialog Front, complained about police raiding his house and arrested two of his guards.
It also looks like tensions are rising in the northern city of Kirkuk, where about 20 people were killed in car bombings this week. Things will get much worse in Kirkuk, before a referendum on the future of the city that must be held this year.
The national intelligence estimate (NIE) on Iraq has finally corrected, perhaps modified is the word, the administration's rhetoric on who supports the insurgents in Iraq. While it noted that Iran supports and arms Shi'a militias, it downplayed its role in the terrorist insurgent campaign. It did not, however tackle the issue of the sources of the huge funds that keep that Jihadist/Ba'athist campaign going.
Iraq has decided to expel the Mujahideen Khaq, an Iranian socialist-Islamic opposition group that has been in Iraq for two over decades. The group had recently published a 'list' of 31,000 Iraqis it claimed were paid agents of the clerical regime in Tehran. It has also claimed that Iran is supplying weapons to Iraqi 'groups'. In doing this, it apparently broke a condition not to meddle in internal Iraqi affairs.
Kuwait's royal chief of the National Security Council, their own Rice or Hadley, or Kissinger if we go back in history, stated in an interview on Alarabiya TV that he is a 'liberal Islamist' and that he has 'good relations' with Jihadists, who are not necessarily terrorists. He said that 'anyone who is not an Islamist is not a Moslem'.... whatever that means. Sounds like logical contortionism to me, a veritable political casserole, but then perhaps he is trying to straddle a thin political line here.
Cheers
Mohammed
In any case, Oprah's African girls should turn out fine, unless she hires Wahhabi teachers for her school, in which case they will turn into little preppy Wahhabettes.
Terrorist bombers struck in a Shi'a area in central Baghdad (the Sadriya district) today, killing more than 130 civilians and wounding hundreds more. Two days earlier, another terror bombing in the Shi'a town of al-Hilla killed 73 people. Iraq's government spokesman said a ton of explosives was loaded on a truck, and he hinted that the terrorists may heve sneaked into Iraq from Syria. Initial Arab reaction was calm and neutral.....headlines reported about 'bombings in Baghdad, many dead and wounded'. No condemnation so far: perhaps they are waiting for the now almost inevitable bloody retaliation by the militias before condemning....condemning the retaliation not the initial act itself. This was not labeled a 'sectarian' massacre, even though the victims were Shi'as and the modus operandi of the mass killings clearly pointed to the Wahabi/Salafi/Ba'athist axis of evil. It becomes 'sectarian' only when the Shi'a militias commit their own bloody atrocities.
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistant, meanwhile, called for calm and for avoiding doing anything that would raise sectarian tensions. Al-Sistani criticized those who issue fatwas against other sects and try to fan the flames of sectarianism among Moslems. Meanwhile, Salih al-Mutlak, head of the Sunni National Dialog Front, complained about police raiding his house and arrested two of his guards.
It also looks like tensions are rising in the northern city of Kirkuk, where about 20 people were killed in car bombings this week. Things will get much worse in Kirkuk, before a referendum on the future of the city that must be held this year.
The national intelligence estimate (NIE) on Iraq has finally corrected, perhaps modified is the word, the administration's rhetoric on who supports the insurgents in Iraq. While it noted that Iran supports and arms Shi'a militias, it downplayed its role in the terrorist insurgent campaign. It did not, however tackle the issue of the sources of the huge funds that keep that Jihadist/Ba'athist campaign going.
Iraq has decided to expel the Mujahideen Khaq, an Iranian socialist-Islamic opposition group that has been in Iraq for two over decades. The group had recently published a 'list' of 31,000 Iraqis it claimed were paid agents of the clerical regime in Tehran. It has also claimed that Iran is supplying weapons to Iraqi 'groups'. In doing this, it apparently broke a condition not to meddle in internal Iraqi affairs.
Kuwait's royal chief of the National Security Council, their own Rice or Hadley, or Kissinger if we go back in history, stated in an interview on Alarabiya TV that he is a 'liberal Islamist' and that he has 'good relations' with Jihadists, who are not necessarily terrorists. He said that 'anyone who is not an Islamist is not a Moslem'.... whatever that means. Sounds like logical contortionism to me, a veritable political casserole, but then perhaps he is trying to straddle a thin political line here.
Cheers
Mohammed
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Battle for Baghdad, How Arabs Radicalized Iraq
The Battle of Baghdad:
The picture in Iraq got a little muddier this week, just before the Ashoura commemorative on Monday. According to some Arab media reports, the fighting around Najaf involved a mysterious group of Sunnis, including Al-Qaeda, as well as a fringe Shi'a group called Jund al-Samaa', Soldiers of Heaven. This would be quite an oddity, to have Al-Qaeda cooperating with fringe Shi'a groups, since the Wahabis consider all Shi'as heretics. It is almost as unlikely as Nazis and Jews making common cause. The Iraqi satellite TV station AlFayhaa quotes a Najaf security official that this was actually a wholly al-Qaeda operation, and that the name 'Soldiers of Heave' is a fake title used to imply that Shi'as are involved. The reports indicate that they had planned to murder top Shi'a clergy and kill as many pilgrims to the shrines as possible. They were also reported to be quite well armed, not your usual low-budget Al-Qaeda suicide operation.
It looks like the Iraqi government, and the United States, may get their wish in ejecting the Sadrist al-Mahdi militias from the streets of Baghdad, thus avoiding a messy confrontation. Yet the continued terror bombings by Sunni groups may encourage support for splinter Shi'a groups. This might weaken the Sadrists in the capital, but at a cost: the splinter groups will have no part of the political process, and they will be more likely to take the law into their own hands. As long as the Wahabi/Salafi terror bombings continue, there will be some popular gravitation among the Shia's to these militias.
Some Arab media, esepcially the Saudi media, are unhappy with the Sadrist shift back toward the political process: they were hoping for a battle that would destroy al-Mahdi army, thus clouding the situation in Baghdad. Now that battle may not come, which is a good thing because nobody should want all of Baghdad to look like Haifa Street with splinter Shi'a militia groups fighting Iraqi and American forces.
Interesting how the situation in Iraq is now being summarized as the "Battle of Baghdad". That is because the rest of Iraq is already divided along sectarian/ethnic lines. Baghdad is the main point of contention now, and perhaps Kirkuk will be later this year.
Those who criticize the regionalism proposals for Iraq, including U.S government officials, are probably trying to assuage allied Arab feelings. Iraq is in fact divided into semi-autonomous regions whether we like it or not: the Kurds are firmly in control in the North, the Shi'as are firmly in control in the South, and the Sunnis can control the West unmolested if they would not carry on suicide bombings in other parts of the country.
How The Arabs Radicalized Iraq:
The Arab regimes, and their elites, bear much responsibility for the ongoing disintegration of Iraq. The Arab media complain about American ineptness in handling the post-Ba'ath situation, yet they and their rulers have done much to exacerbate the sectarian tensions that feed the situation in Iraq. They have refused to deal on an equal basis with an elected Iraqi government, and their monarchs and dictators have made inflammatory statements about the dangers of the Shi'as gaining majority rule. King Abdullah of Jordan started the ball rolling with his irresponsible, and plagiarized, warning about a "Shi'a Crescent", then Egypt's aging President-For-Life Mubarak stated to the press that "Shi'as were more loyal to Iran than to their own countries". Saudi state-employed Wahabi sheikhs started issuing fatwas reiterating their well-publicized views that the Shi'as are heretics who are out to convert and control. Now we have the seeds of a regional sectarian conflict. Old derogatory sectarian terms like Safawis and Shoubis, often used by the Ba'ath in the past, are being dusted up and used to refer to the Shi'as on a daily basis by mainstream Arab newspapers in the Persian Gulf monarchies. These terms were last used by the same media during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when the Gulf states were cheering Saddam on, acclaiming him a hero.
Now the regional media, as usual echoing their absolute rulers, are calling for a reversal of Iraq: reinstate the old gas-throwing, chemical-using army that murdered Kurds, the same army that invaded Kuwait and was poised to take over the rest of their oil fields. They want an old and reliable military man, i.e a Sunni, installed as a benevolent dictator: perhaps they guess that they can easily buy off such a man, even though they could not completely buy off Saddam. They have a mind-set that does not accept change: they still believe that the Americans run everything in Iraq, that we can change the government at will. Just like the older generation, our parents, always believed that the Brits ran the Middle East overtly or covertly, which they did for a while. Perhaps they should stop watching novellas, or is it Looney Toons, and switch their television sets to the hearings on C-Span occasionally to appreciate the struggle that is raging within the United States about the Iraq situation.
Love and Tribalism in Arabia- The Tragedy of Fatima and Mansoor:
Al-arabia TV reports that a Saudi appeals court has ruled that the court-ordered divorce of a young couple is valid, even though both the man and woman, and their children want to remain married. The original case was brough to court by the wife's male relatives, her brothers, who claimed that they have discovered that the husband was not 'tribally compatible' with the family. The couple had escaped after the first ruling but were caught by the police and charged with living in sin. The woman, Fatima, has refused to leave the prison where she is staying with her infant child, for fear that her family will marry her off quickly to an old man.
Cheers
Mohammed
The picture in Iraq got a little muddier this week, just before the Ashoura commemorative on Monday. According to some Arab media reports, the fighting around Najaf involved a mysterious group of Sunnis, including Al-Qaeda, as well as a fringe Shi'a group called Jund al-Samaa', Soldiers of Heaven. This would be quite an oddity, to have Al-Qaeda cooperating with fringe Shi'a groups, since the Wahabis consider all Shi'as heretics. It is almost as unlikely as Nazis and Jews making common cause. The Iraqi satellite TV station AlFayhaa quotes a Najaf security official that this was actually a wholly al-Qaeda operation, and that the name 'Soldiers of Heave' is a fake title used to imply that Shi'as are involved. The reports indicate that they had planned to murder top Shi'a clergy and kill as many pilgrims to the shrines as possible. They were also reported to be quite well armed, not your usual low-budget Al-Qaeda suicide operation.
It looks like the Iraqi government, and the United States, may get their wish in ejecting the Sadrist al-Mahdi militias from the streets of Baghdad, thus avoiding a messy confrontation. Yet the continued terror bombings by Sunni groups may encourage support for splinter Shi'a groups. This might weaken the Sadrists in the capital, but at a cost: the splinter groups will have no part of the political process, and they will be more likely to take the law into their own hands. As long as the Wahabi/Salafi terror bombings continue, there will be some popular gravitation among the Shia's to these militias.
Some Arab media, esepcially the Saudi media, are unhappy with the Sadrist shift back toward the political process: they were hoping for a battle that would destroy al-Mahdi army, thus clouding the situation in Baghdad. Now that battle may not come, which is a good thing because nobody should want all of Baghdad to look like Haifa Street with splinter Shi'a militia groups fighting Iraqi and American forces.
Interesting how the situation in Iraq is now being summarized as the "Battle of Baghdad". That is because the rest of Iraq is already divided along sectarian/ethnic lines. Baghdad is the main point of contention now, and perhaps Kirkuk will be later this year.
Those who criticize the regionalism proposals for Iraq, including U.S government officials, are probably trying to assuage allied Arab feelings. Iraq is in fact divided into semi-autonomous regions whether we like it or not: the Kurds are firmly in control in the North, the Shi'as are firmly in control in the South, and the Sunnis can control the West unmolested if they would not carry on suicide bombings in other parts of the country.
How The Arabs Radicalized Iraq:
The Arab regimes, and their elites, bear much responsibility for the ongoing disintegration of Iraq. The Arab media complain about American ineptness in handling the post-Ba'ath situation, yet they and their rulers have done much to exacerbate the sectarian tensions that feed the situation in Iraq. They have refused to deal on an equal basis with an elected Iraqi government, and their monarchs and dictators have made inflammatory statements about the dangers of the Shi'as gaining majority rule. King Abdullah of Jordan started the ball rolling with his irresponsible, and plagiarized, warning about a "Shi'a Crescent", then Egypt's aging President-For-Life Mubarak stated to the press that "Shi'as were more loyal to Iran than to their own countries". Saudi state-employed Wahabi sheikhs started issuing fatwas reiterating their well-publicized views that the Shi'as are heretics who are out to convert and control. Now we have the seeds of a regional sectarian conflict. Old derogatory sectarian terms like Safawis and Shoubis, often used by the Ba'ath in the past, are being dusted up and used to refer to the Shi'as on a daily basis by mainstream Arab newspapers in the Persian Gulf monarchies. These terms were last used by the same media during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when the Gulf states were cheering Saddam on, acclaiming him a hero.
Now the regional media, as usual echoing their absolute rulers, are calling for a reversal of Iraq: reinstate the old gas-throwing, chemical-using army that murdered Kurds, the same army that invaded Kuwait and was poised to take over the rest of their oil fields. They want an old and reliable military man, i.e a Sunni, installed as a benevolent dictator: perhaps they guess that they can easily buy off such a man, even though they could not completely buy off Saddam. They have a mind-set that does not accept change: they still believe that the Americans run everything in Iraq, that we can change the government at will. Just like the older generation, our parents, always believed that the Brits ran the Middle East overtly or covertly, which they did for a while. Perhaps they should stop watching novellas, or is it Looney Toons, and switch their television sets to the hearings on C-Span occasionally to appreciate the struggle that is raging within the United States about the Iraq situation.
Love and Tribalism in Arabia- The Tragedy of Fatima and Mansoor:
Al-arabia TV reports that a Saudi appeals court has ruled that the court-ordered divorce of a young couple is valid, even though both the man and woman, and their children want to remain married. The original case was brough to court by the wife's male relatives, her brothers, who claimed that they have discovered that the husband was not 'tribally compatible' with the family. The couple had escaped after the first ruling but were caught by the police and charged with living in sin. The woman, Fatima, has refused to leave the prison where she is staying with her infant child, for fear that her family will marry her off quickly to an old man.
Cheers
Mohammed
Thursday, January 25, 2007
Iraq's American Values, Saddam's Virgins, Jordanian Honor Killings
I have been reading and hearing reports and comments about the training and arming of the Iraqi Army. Several U.S and Arab commentators have warned that the United States, in training the Iraqis, is training unreliable people who do not share American values and goals. Yet the United States trains other Arab armies, including the Saudis and Egyptians- it is highly doubtful that they share American values and goals (September 11, 2001 reminded us all of that). There is one major difference, however: unlike all other Arab armed forces, the Iraqi army answers to a freely elected government- this is one value they share with America that other Arabs do not.
At a conference in Doha to staunch Moslem sectarian tensions, a top radical Egyptian Sunni cleric, a Dr. Yosouf al-Qardawi, called on Shia's to stop converting Sunnis to their sect. That went a long way toward sealing the fate of the conference. Later al-Qardawi eulogized Saddam Hussein at a mosque, and almost guaranteed him a place in paradise. He did not, however, mention whether Saddam will also have unlimited access to virgins in his new domicile.
It looks like Lebanon is on the verge of a new civil war, unless the various factions and parties agree to a restructuring of the political system. It is clear now that the current system is untenable, simply because the largest group of the Lebanese demographic/ethnic mosaic, as represented by Hizballah and Amal, will not accept it. It is highly unlikely that the recent Paris agreement on aid will do much to change that. There are reports in Arab media that the Iranians and the Saudis, the two main influences on the opposing Lebanese factions, are working to reach an agreement. Even if they do, will their purported proxies, Mr. Nassrallah and Mr. Hariri agree? Unfortunately for Lebanon, it is unlikely that the $ 7+ billion aid money, whenever it becomes available and at whatever conditions, will flow fast enough to affect the situation on the ground.
Alarabiya reports from Jordan that a young girl was shot by her family for 'dishonoring' them by running away from home for a few days. Posthumous medical examination showed that she was still a virgin- whatever bit of family honor that strip of membrane represented was still intact. Reports claim that at least 12 women have been honor-killed by their families in Jordan over the last year, and it is very likely that many more such murder cases are not even reported, perhaps not as 'honor' killings.
Looks like most commentators agree that the Pakistani ISI, the inter-service intelligence, has resumed helping and arming the now-resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan. Most publicly agree with this assessment, except U.S officials in Washington. And we all know who is allied with and bankrolls the Taliban, or do we?
Cheers
Mohammed
At a conference in Doha to staunch Moslem sectarian tensions, a top radical Egyptian Sunni cleric, a Dr. Yosouf al-Qardawi, called on Shia's to stop converting Sunnis to their sect. That went a long way toward sealing the fate of the conference. Later al-Qardawi eulogized Saddam Hussein at a mosque, and almost guaranteed him a place in paradise. He did not, however, mention whether Saddam will also have unlimited access to virgins in his new domicile.
It looks like Lebanon is on the verge of a new civil war, unless the various factions and parties agree to a restructuring of the political system. It is clear now that the current system is untenable, simply because the largest group of the Lebanese demographic/ethnic mosaic, as represented by Hizballah and Amal, will not accept it. It is highly unlikely that the recent Paris agreement on aid will do much to change that. There are reports in Arab media that the Iranians and the Saudis, the two main influences on the opposing Lebanese factions, are working to reach an agreement. Even if they do, will their purported proxies, Mr. Nassrallah and Mr. Hariri agree? Unfortunately for Lebanon, it is unlikely that the $ 7+ billion aid money, whenever it becomes available and at whatever conditions, will flow fast enough to affect the situation on the ground.
Alarabiya reports from Jordan that a young girl was shot by her family for 'dishonoring' them by running away from home for a few days. Posthumous medical examination showed that she was still a virgin- whatever bit of family honor that strip of membrane represented was still intact. Reports claim that at least 12 women have been honor-killed by their families in Jordan over the last year, and it is very likely that many more such murder cases are not even reported, perhaps not as 'honor' killings.
Looks like most commentators agree that the Pakistani ISI, the inter-service intelligence, has resumed helping and arming the now-resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan. Most publicly agree with this assessment, except U.S officials in Washington. And we all know who is allied with and bankrolls the Taliban, or do we?
Cheers
Mohammed
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Reckoning in Iran, Little Nuclear King, An Islamic Crusade
Ahmadijejad's Reckoning: Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been riding high over the past two years. The time of reckoning, however, is drawing close. He was elected on promises to improve economic conditions, and he has clearly failed to deliver. Instead, he seems to have focused on foreign policy issues, even traveling far and wide and literally meddling in various foreign issues that do not concern his people. He even managed to antagonize European leaders who are the quintessential anti-neocons, by going back in time, literally backwards, to adopt the seemy issue of holocaust denial. He has not endeared his regime or his country to those who really count nowadays in the world economy, the industrial nations that control the executive boards of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. He does not have much time before the next election, and he looks set to lose. The local media and politicians are accelerating its criticism of him. If he could not fulfill his promises when petroleum prices were near $ 70 a barrel, he certainly will not be able to do so with prices near $ 50. Unless a certain major super-power makes the huge mistake of attacking his country within the next two years. That is precisely what Saddam Hussein did in 1980, thus allowing the embattled mullahs to eliminate their powerful secular and democratic opponents.
Funniest Statement of the Week: The Israeli newspaper Ma'arev quotes King Abdullah of Jordan that his country will develop nuclear energy, for peaceful purposes of course. There remains one simple question: where the hell will Jordan get the money (billions of dollars) from? Foreign aid and development assistance, major sources of Jordanian foreign exchange earnings, do not cover nuclear research- the U.S Congress will never stand for it. Then there is the issue of the brains and the knowledge needed: it is almost impossible to B.S. your way into the nuclear club. Even an Arab leader cannot get that far with pure B.S.
Iraq, Again: In discussing the Middle East, there is no escaping Iraq. It has replaced the Palestinian issue as the focus of the struggle for the region. At least, the Arab regimes, which for decades used Israel and the Palestinian plight as the excuse for continued dictatorship and corruption, have now shifted almost their total attention to Iraq. Re-instating the Sunni elites back in power in Baghdad is the goal of all Arab regimes. Except they do not know how to go about it, now that all Iraqi factions are armed to the teeth. Certainly the escalated and vicious media war being waged against the Iraqi constitution and the weak government will not lead to that. Perhaps the Jordanian Fredonian nuclear threat (look above) will help tip the balance?
Speaking of Iraq: the Turkish parliament has been discussing Iraqi matters in closed session- especially the city of Kirkuk, fomerly mainly Kurdish but ethnically-cleansed by the Ba'ath and the former Sunni rulers of Iraq. The Kurds prepare for a referendum by the end of the year that might join the city to their autonomous region. The Turks threaten intervention if that happens. In this the Turks are making common cause with the Salafi fundamentalists and former Ba'athists who are at the core of the terrorism in Iraq.
Interesting Arabia: Alarabiya TV website, when it is not carrying the Sunni-Wahabi Crusade (this is not a pun, otherwise it would be a bad one) about Iraq, does publish interesting items. It reports that a young Saudi man parked his car, a Mercedes of course, outside a butcher's shop, entered the shop and proceeded to cut his own throat on the meat machine. He succeeded. A leading Saudi shaikh (there are many over there) said that this is an unusual case, an aberration, in the Saudi Moslem society, presumably just like hypocrisy, corruption, nepotism, and embezzlement. He said suicide may be caused by mental illness (also one of the causes of political nonconformity), using illegal drugs (another cause of noncomformity), or perhaps he was exposed to some magic perhaps from the Jinn (also can cause serious political nonconformity and general anti-government views). The Shaikh, Abdulmuhsin al-Obeikan, did say, however, that the mentally ill is not responsible and will not be punished on the Day of Judgement. Even if the said mentally ill espouses unusual political views? What if the mentally ill person decides to convert from Islam to, say, espiscopalianism? Or even Catholicism (I used episcopalianism first because it has a certain ring to it)? Everybody can spell Catholic, or Moslem- but espiscopalian can be a challenge.
Cheers
Mohammed
Funniest Statement of the Week: The Israeli newspaper Ma'arev quotes King Abdullah of Jordan that his country will develop nuclear energy, for peaceful purposes of course. There remains one simple question: where the hell will Jordan get the money (billions of dollars) from? Foreign aid and development assistance, major sources of Jordanian foreign exchange earnings, do not cover nuclear research- the U.S Congress will never stand for it. Then there is the issue of the brains and the knowledge needed: it is almost impossible to B.S. your way into the nuclear club. Even an Arab leader cannot get that far with pure B.S.
Iraq, Again: In discussing the Middle East, there is no escaping Iraq. It has replaced the Palestinian issue as the focus of the struggle for the region. At least, the Arab regimes, which for decades used Israel and the Palestinian plight as the excuse for continued dictatorship and corruption, have now shifted almost their total attention to Iraq. Re-instating the Sunni elites back in power in Baghdad is the goal of all Arab regimes. Except they do not know how to go about it, now that all Iraqi factions are armed to the teeth. Certainly the escalated and vicious media war being waged against the Iraqi constitution and the weak government will not lead to that. Perhaps the Jordanian Fredonian nuclear threat (look above) will help tip the balance?
Speaking of Iraq: the Turkish parliament has been discussing Iraqi matters in closed session- especially the city of Kirkuk, fomerly mainly Kurdish but ethnically-cleansed by the Ba'ath and the former Sunni rulers of Iraq. The Kurds prepare for a referendum by the end of the year that might join the city to their autonomous region. The Turks threaten intervention if that happens. In this the Turks are making common cause with the Salafi fundamentalists and former Ba'athists who are at the core of the terrorism in Iraq.
Interesting Arabia: Alarabiya TV website, when it is not carrying the Sunni-Wahabi Crusade (this is not a pun, otherwise it would be a bad one) about Iraq, does publish interesting items. It reports that a young Saudi man parked his car, a Mercedes of course, outside a butcher's shop, entered the shop and proceeded to cut his own throat on the meat machine. He succeeded. A leading Saudi shaikh (there are many over there) said that this is an unusual case, an aberration, in the Saudi Moslem society, presumably just like hypocrisy, corruption, nepotism, and embezzlement. He said suicide may be caused by mental illness (also one of the causes of political nonconformity), using illegal drugs (another cause of noncomformity), or perhaps he was exposed to some magic perhaps from the Jinn (also can cause serious political nonconformity and general anti-government views). The Shaikh, Abdulmuhsin al-Obeikan, did say, however, that the mentally ill is not responsible and will not be punished on the Day of Judgement. Even if the said mentally ill espouses unusual political views? What if the mentally ill person decides to convert from Islam to, say, espiscopalianism? Or even Catholicism (I used episcopalianism first because it has a certain ring to it)? Everybody can spell Catholic, or Moslem- but espiscopalian can be a challenge.
Cheers
Mohammed
Friday, January 19, 2007
How Arab Rulers Seek to 'Reform' Iraq
Arabia Deceptia: this terms was the title of a column written by the late Walter Lippmann after the Arab-Israeli Six-Day War of 1967. It is as relevant today as it was then.
With the political mood in Washington shifting away from pushing democracy and toward a return to the old cold-war era emphasis on 'stability', regional rulers feel 'off the hook'. There is still the messy business in Iraq which they would like to deal with, on their on terms, if they can swing it.
The Arab political system has convinced itself that events in Iraq must be the work of 'foreigners', part of some grand scheme. Some blame Iran, which is certainly involved in Iraq. Some blame a joint Israeli-Iranian plot: considered far-fetched anywhere in the world except in Arabia. Others see a secret American-Iranian plan to divide up the region- a sort of modern day Sykes-Picot deal, just like the Brits and the French did after World War I. Others throw in Israel as the third partner in this plot. Some old habits do not die: self-delusion and denial are alive and well, as ever, in Arabia. 'De Nile' is a river in Egypt, as they say.
President Mubarak of Egypt supports the new Bush plan for Iraq. But he demands that the "Iraqi" constitution be amended. To make the political process more inclusive. Mr. Mubarak, 79 years old and by now 26 years in absolute power, is planning to hand over the throne of Egypt to his son when he departs. Only once has he had to face an opponent in an election, a rigged sham election- even Jimmy Carter did not bother to show up to validate its results. That opponent in question, Ayman Nour, has been in prison on trumped up charges ever since. And Mr. Mubarak wants the "Iraqi" constitution amended to make it more inclusive.
The Saudis have also welcomed the new Bush plan, after some explanations and clarification by Secretary Rice. But they are also demanding, through their foreign minister and through the best-financed media in the third world, that the "Iraqi" constitution be amended to make it more inclusive. Saudi Arabia does not have a constitution, and 15% of its citizens who happen to be Shi'as (Shiites to some westerners) sit atop the vast petroleum fields of their ancestral lands, and these 15% aspire to be treated better, perhaps at least as third class citizens. They are not as ambitious as their counterparts, the 15% Sunnis of Iraq. You see, they are being realistic. And Saudi Arabia demands that Iraq's constitution be more inclusive.
Saudi women cannot drive a car, a motorcycle, or ride a bicycle or a mule at home. They cannot travel without being accompanied by an adult male relative. They can be divorced by a husband simply repeating "You are divorced" three times, and that divorce cannot be reversed until after the woman remarries someone else and the new marriage is 'consummated'. Not 'very nice' as Borat would say. Yet Saudi Arabia wants to improve the 'Iraqi' constitution and to reform the freely elected, albeit hapless, Iraqi government.
So do all Arab despots, kings, dictators, and presidents-for-life (the only kind of president in the Arab World, with one exception).
The problem with the Arab system is that it failed the Iraqi people time and again over 35 years. It ignored and denied the genocide against the Kurds even as the Anfal operations were at their peak. It sided with Saddam when he launched his war against Iran. Half of it sided with Saddam when he invaded Kuwait. Now they and their paid media are foolishly questioning the patriotic credentials of 85% of the Iraqi people, the Kurds and the Shi'as. Don't get me wrong: the other 15% of Iraqis, the Sunnis, have no love for the existing Arab system either. After all, this system and its governments either condoned or actively supported the war that ended their domination of Iraq.
Cheers
Mohammed
With the political mood in Washington shifting away from pushing democracy and toward a return to the old cold-war era emphasis on 'stability', regional rulers feel 'off the hook'. There is still the messy business in Iraq which they would like to deal with, on their on terms, if they can swing it.
The Arab political system has convinced itself that events in Iraq must be the work of 'foreigners', part of some grand scheme. Some blame Iran, which is certainly involved in Iraq. Some blame a joint Israeli-Iranian plot: considered far-fetched anywhere in the world except in Arabia. Others see a secret American-Iranian plan to divide up the region- a sort of modern day Sykes-Picot deal, just like the Brits and the French did after World War I. Others throw in Israel as the third partner in this plot. Some old habits do not die: self-delusion and denial are alive and well, as ever, in Arabia. 'De Nile' is a river in Egypt, as they say.
President Mubarak of Egypt supports the new Bush plan for Iraq. But he demands that the "Iraqi" constitution be amended. To make the political process more inclusive. Mr. Mubarak, 79 years old and by now 26 years in absolute power, is planning to hand over the throne of Egypt to his son when he departs. Only once has he had to face an opponent in an election, a rigged sham election- even Jimmy Carter did not bother to show up to validate its results. That opponent in question, Ayman Nour, has been in prison on trumped up charges ever since. And Mr. Mubarak wants the "Iraqi" constitution amended to make it more inclusive.
The Saudis have also welcomed the new Bush plan, after some explanations and clarification by Secretary Rice. But they are also demanding, through their foreign minister and through the best-financed media in the third world, that the "Iraqi" constitution be amended to make it more inclusive. Saudi Arabia does not have a constitution, and 15% of its citizens who happen to be Shi'as (Shiites to some westerners) sit atop the vast petroleum fields of their ancestral lands, and these 15% aspire to be treated better, perhaps at least as third class citizens. They are not as ambitious as their counterparts, the 15% Sunnis of Iraq. You see, they are being realistic. And Saudi Arabia demands that Iraq's constitution be more inclusive.
Saudi women cannot drive a car, a motorcycle, or ride a bicycle or a mule at home. They cannot travel without being accompanied by an adult male relative. They can be divorced by a husband simply repeating "You are divorced" three times, and that divorce cannot be reversed until after the woman remarries someone else and the new marriage is 'consummated'. Not 'very nice' as Borat would say. Yet Saudi Arabia wants to improve the 'Iraqi' constitution and to reform the freely elected, albeit hapless, Iraqi government.
So do all Arab despots, kings, dictators, and presidents-for-life (the only kind of president in the Arab World, with one exception).
The problem with the Arab system is that it failed the Iraqi people time and again over 35 years. It ignored and denied the genocide against the Kurds even as the Anfal operations were at their peak. It sided with Saddam when he launched his war against Iran. Half of it sided with Saddam when he invaded Kuwait. Now they and their paid media are foolishly questioning the patriotic credentials of 85% of the Iraqi people, the Kurds and the Shi'as. Don't get me wrong: the other 15% of Iraqis, the Sunnis, have no love for the existing Arab system either. After all, this system and its governments either condoned or actively supported the war that ended their domination of Iraq.
Cheers
Mohammed
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Rehabilitation of Saddam, A Burning Reichstag in the Middle East
The Ba'ath Redux?
In most Arab states, Saddam’s ‘bloody shirt’ is being waved daily, and used to discredit the hapless but nevertheless democratically elected government in Iraq. It is also used to discredit the whole electoral process and the ideal of real democracy in the Arab World. The argument is simple, primeval: look what happens when big daddy is deposed?
In Jordan, where Saddam was considered a hero (by people who never had to live under his regime) there has been all but official mourning. A cabinet minister appointed by King Abdullah to his government even attended funeral services that turned into a political rally. The Saudi press, the best financed in the third world, hammers daily on how he was abused on his last days, how his execution was blatantly ‘sectarian’.
Saudi-owned Alarabiya TV, however, gets the prize for post-Saddam chutzpah (not exactly a good Arabic word). It reported on its web site today about Saddam's 'efforts' to Islamize the Ba'ath Party. These efforts, the report gushes, started with his converting Michel Aflaq, the Christian Syrian co-founder of the Ba'ath, to Islam. The report claims that Saddam realized that 'the Party' had erred and he was on a path of reforming it- if only those kaffir Amrican heathen invaders and those rebellious Shi'as had not interfered. The report also claims that even though Saddam was 'disappointed' with the behavior of some Arab leaders, he 'understood' their positions and the pressures they were brought under. Now isn't that nice and convenient for the Saudi owners and financiers of Alarabiya and for the other Gulf potentates who aided the invasion? It looks like posthumous kiss and make up with Saddam and, more important, those who are fighting to return Iraq to minority rule domination.
London-published Azzaman daily, a mouthpiece of the old Iraqi pan-Arabist ruling elites, has now come out openly against the new political system. Apparently the Sunni elites have lost hope of regaining power through political means and are ready to throw in their lot with the Jihadists. Their only hope now is to coax the American liberators/occupiers to overthrow the regime and replace it with a ‘moderate’ unity government. That would be tantamount to taking a direct hand in the quasi civil war, thus setting the whole southern half of Iraq on fire.
The Iraqi government has clearly and ineptly provided some fuel to its enemies, all Arab dictators, potentates and absolute monarchs. This unfortunate incident does not change anything in Iraq: it merely provides a pretext to continue the war of terror inside Iraq, and the anti-Shi’a campaign outside Iraq. Executing Saddam under the camera lens was not exactly the Burning of the Reichstag, but it is being used as such by Arab regimes that once glorified the dictator as well as by Arab regimes, especially in the Persian Gulf, that provided at least logistical support for the war that deposed him. This is not just a rehabilitation of Saddam, but is also part of a process of rehabilitating the Arab regimes in the eyes of the Arab (mostly Sunni) masses. Already, some Arab media in the Gulf is using quasi-Goebbelsian Ba’athist slogans: calling the Shi’as ‘Safawis’, digging deep into medieval history implying that the regime in Iraq is Iranian rather than Iraqi. The Safawis (Safavis) of course, where rivals of the Ottoman Turks who ruled all Arab lands for several centuries. The implication is simple, tribal, and clear: the Safawis, like most Persians, were Shi'as, the Ottoman Turks were Sunnis- the Arab Sunni minority were favored by the occupying Turks whom they betrayed in World War I. The British, when they inherited Iraq, promptly handed power to the Sunni minority as a reward and because they seemed more accommodating and docile than the suspicious Shi'as (Shiites) and the Kurds. Recent articles in some media have even reverted to calling Saddam by an old now-discredited title once favored by the Ba’ath: protector of the Arab Eastern Gateway.
Cheers
Mohammed
In most Arab states, Saddam’s ‘bloody shirt’ is being waved daily, and used to discredit the hapless but nevertheless democratically elected government in Iraq. It is also used to discredit the whole electoral process and the ideal of real democracy in the Arab World. The argument is simple, primeval: look what happens when big daddy is deposed?
In Jordan, where Saddam was considered a hero (by people who never had to live under his regime) there has been all but official mourning. A cabinet minister appointed by King Abdullah to his government even attended funeral services that turned into a political rally. The Saudi press, the best financed in the third world, hammers daily on how he was abused on his last days, how his execution was blatantly ‘sectarian’.
Saudi-owned Alarabiya TV, however, gets the prize for post-Saddam chutzpah (not exactly a good Arabic word). It reported on its web site today about Saddam's 'efforts' to Islamize the Ba'ath Party. These efforts, the report gushes, started with his converting Michel Aflaq, the Christian Syrian co-founder of the Ba'ath, to Islam. The report claims that Saddam realized that 'the Party' had erred and he was on a path of reforming it- if only those kaffir Amrican heathen invaders and those rebellious Shi'as had not interfered. The report also claims that even though Saddam was 'disappointed' with the behavior of some Arab leaders, he 'understood' their positions and the pressures they were brought under. Now isn't that nice and convenient for the Saudi owners and financiers of Alarabiya and for the other Gulf potentates who aided the invasion? It looks like posthumous kiss and make up with Saddam and, more important, those who are fighting to return Iraq to minority rule domination.
London-published Azzaman daily, a mouthpiece of the old Iraqi pan-Arabist ruling elites, has now come out openly against the new political system. Apparently the Sunni elites have lost hope of regaining power through political means and are ready to throw in their lot with the Jihadists. Their only hope now is to coax the American liberators/occupiers to overthrow the regime and replace it with a ‘moderate’ unity government. That would be tantamount to taking a direct hand in the quasi civil war, thus setting the whole southern half of Iraq on fire.
The Iraqi government has clearly and ineptly provided some fuel to its enemies, all Arab dictators, potentates and absolute monarchs. This unfortunate incident does not change anything in Iraq: it merely provides a pretext to continue the war of terror inside Iraq, and the anti-Shi’a campaign outside Iraq. Executing Saddam under the camera lens was not exactly the Burning of the Reichstag, but it is being used as such by Arab regimes that once glorified the dictator as well as by Arab regimes, especially in the Persian Gulf, that provided at least logistical support for the war that deposed him. This is not just a rehabilitation of Saddam, but is also part of a process of rehabilitating the Arab regimes in the eyes of the Arab (mostly Sunni) masses. Already, some Arab media in the Gulf is using quasi-Goebbelsian Ba’athist slogans: calling the Shi’as ‘Safawis’, digging deep into medieval history implying that the regime in Iraq is Iranian rather than Iraqi. The Safawis (Safavis) of course, where rivals of the Ottoman Turks who ruled all Arab lands for several centuries. The implication is simple, tribal, and clear: the Safawis, like most Persians, were Shi'as, the Ottoman Turks were Sunnis- the Arab Sunni minority were favored by the occupying Turks whom they betrayed in World War I. The British, when they inherited Iraq, promptly handed power to the Sunni minority as a reward and because they seemed more accommodating and docile than the suspicious Shi'as (Shiites) and the Kurds. Recent articles in some media have even reverted to calling Saddam by an old now-discredited title once favored by the Ba’ath: protector of the Arab Eastern Gateway.
Cheers
Mohammed
Sunday, December 31, 2006
Arabia 2006: Another Financial Bubble Bursts, A Sectarian Cold War Is Waged
Gulf Financial Markets-2006:
Reports indicate that Arab financial markets sustained heavy losses during 2006. Some estimates put total losses in market value of the Gulf GCC shares for the year at over $ 440 billion, exceeding 150% of the total oil revenues of the six states. The biggest losses were in the Saudi market, where the index declined by more than 50%, the UAE market which lost 41% , and Qatar (35%) and Kuwait 12%. Oman was the only market that gained (14.3%), while Bahrain’s index was up by less than 1%.
During the year 2006, the Saudi market, which was established in 1985, achieved its highest lever when the index broke through then 20,000-point level in February. The index reached 20,635 points, growing by 24% during the first 50 days of the year, before crashing down through the rest of the year to reach a low of 7,600.
Most Saudi traders and analysts seem to blame market mechanisms and regulatory measures rather than fundamentals for the decline. Much of the blame is put on changes in marker rules that deal with such issues as commissions/fees, periods of trading, allowing stock splits, etc. The analysts in this case are dealing with small ‘bugs’ while ignoring the huge elephant in the room. These are clearly improbable factors for the huge decline in the share prices. A 53% decline in the market index can only be blamed on fundamentals: a combination of company financial performance and perhaps macroeconomic factors.
Persian Gulf Sectarian Tensions and Saddam:
Some Arab media, especially in the Gulf region, have tended to interpret Saddam’s execution in sectarian terms. Saudi Arabia, perhaps aiming at leading a possible Sunni line of defense, against what, it is not clear yet,. was also critical. The Saudi media, as always following the official line, were severely critical. The media in Jordan, the country where Saddam was the most popular, much more popular than in Iraq, was also critical.
The Saudi official line, as well as its accommodating media, criticized the insufficiency of the trial period- three years, probably longer than the trial of Goering after World War II. They criticized the process itself- yet Saudi Arabia chops off people’s heads in public squares, mostly the heads of poor people and foreign laborer convicts, after speedy trials, often with no recourse to appeal. Kuwait, having suffered invasion and genocide by the Iraqi Ba’ath Party, welcomed the execution- they are still turning up remains of Kuwaiti captives from 1990-91 in Iraqi mass graves.
2006 was also the year that ‘moderate’ Arab regimes and their media chose to start a public sectarian cold war against the Shi’as (Shiites) in their midst. By so doing, they have fanned the flames of once-dormant sectarian suspicions and hatreds. There has always been discrimination against the Shi’as in the Persian Gulf region, with the most flagrant violations of their human rights being committed in Saudi Arabia, where they sit atop the country’s vast petroleum fields abut are denied the basic educational and economic rights that the dominant Wahabis are granted.
This new approach of subtly demonizing the native Shi’as has been clearly a deliberate policy, led by Wahabi extremists in Saudi Arabia who control much of the Arab satellite televisions stations and major newspapers published from overseas, particularly London and Beirut. It started as a reaction to the end of Sunni-Ba’ath dominance in Iraq, but was fueled by fears of growing Iranian influence in Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. Saudi-owned newspapers like Asharq Alawsat, Al-Hayat, and Alarabiya TV are full of stories of Shia’s converting people from Sunni countries to their “faith”- as if there are certain rites of conversion from Sunnism to Shi’ism, as if Shi’as are not Moslems. The latter is probably what some actually believe.
Arab rulers have always instructed their ubiquitous censors to single out pro-Israeli, or just plain Jewish, works of media and art. Now they seem to have added works about the history and the faith of Shi'ism as subversive as well.
So far the offensive in this war of the media has come from the Sunni side, mainly Saudi religious leaders, as well as some of the media. A few reactive pot-shots are taken by some Shi’a media which cannot match, in terms of resources, the massive funds available to the other side.
Cheers & Happy New Year
Mohammed
Reports indicate that Arab financial markets sustained heavy losses during 2006. Some estimates put total losses in market value of the Gulf GCC shares for the year at over $ 440 billion, exceeding 150% of the total oil revenues of the six states. The biggest losses were in the Saudi market, where the index declined by more than 50%, the UAE market which lost 41% , and Qatar (35%) and Kuwait 12%. Oman was the only market that gained (14.3%), while Bahrain’s index was up by less than 1%.
During the year 2006, the Saudi market, which was established in 1985, achieved its highest lever when the index broke through then 20,000-point level in February. The index reached 20,635 points, growing by 24% during the first 50 days of the year, before crashing down through the rest of the year to reach a low of 7,600.
Most Saudi traders and analysts seem to blame market mechanisms and regulatory measures rather than fundamentals for the decline. Much of the blame is put on changes in marker rules that deal with such issues as commissions/fees, periods of trading, allowing stock splits, etc. The analysts in this case are dealing with small ‘bugs’ while ignoring the huge elephant in the room. These are clearly improbable factors for the huge decline in the share prices. A 53% decline in the market index can only be blamed on fundamentals: a combination of company financial performance and perhaps macroeconomic factors.
Persian Gulf Sectarian Tensions and Saddam:
Some Arab media, especially in the Gulf region, have tended to interpret Saddam’s execution in sectarian terms. Saudi Arabia, perhaps aiming at leading a possible Sunni line of defense, against what, it is not clear yet,. was also critical. The Saudi media, as always following the official line, were severely critical. The media in Jordan, the country where Saddam was the most popular, much more popular than in Iraq, was also critical.
The Saudi official line, as well as its accommodating media, criticized the insufficiency of the trial period- three years, probably longer than the trial of Goering after World War II. They criticized the process itself- yet Saudi Arabia chops off people’s heads in public squares, mostly the heads of poor people and foreign laborer convicts, after speedy trials, often with no recourse to appeal. Kuwait, having suffered invasion and genocide by the Iraqi Ba’ath Party, welcomed the execution- they are still turning up remains of Kuwaiti captives from 1990-91 in Iraqi mass graves.
2006 was also the year that ‘moderate’ Arab regimes and their media chose to start a public sectarian cold war against the Shi’as (Shiites) in their midst. By so doing, they have fanned the flames of once-dormant sectarian suspicions and hatreds. There has always been discrimination against the Shi’as in the Persian Gulf region, with the most flagrant violations of their human rights being committed in Saudi Arabia, where they sit atop the country’s vast petroleum fields abut are denied the basic educational and economic rights that the dominant Wahabis are granted.
This new approach of subtly demonizing the native Shi’as has been clearly a deliberate policy, led by Wahabi extremists in Saudi Arabia who control much of the Arab satellite televisions stations and major newspapers published from overseas, particularly London and Beirut. It started as a reaction to the end of Sunni-Ba’ath dominance in Iraq, but was fueled by fears of growing Iranian influence in Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. Saudi-owned newspapers like Asharq Alawsat, Al-Hayat, and Alarabiya TV are full of stories of Shia’s converting people from Sunni countries to their “faith”- as if there are certain rites of conversion from Sunnism to Shi’ism, as if Shi’as are not Moslems. The latter is probably what some actually believe.
Arab rulers have always instructed their ubiquitous censors to single out pro-Israeli, or just plain Jewish, works of media and art. Now they seem to have added works about the history and the faith of Shi'ism as subversive as well.
So far the offensive in this war of the media has come from the Sunni side, mainly Saudi religious leaders, as well as some of the media. A few reactive pot-shots are taken by some Shi’a media which cannot match, in terms of resources, the massive funds available to the other side.
Cheers & Happy New Year
Mohammed
Thursday, December 21, 2006
Gulf Financial Markets: Fundamentals vs. Conspiracy, Deutscher Zollverein in Arabia
Saudi Markets:
A report in the Saudi daily Okaz hints that foreign capital movements may be responsible for the consistent Saudi market decline. Others have come up with their own explanations, which include:
1)The authorities have started new trading and transparency measures at the wrong time. (Note: it is always the wrong time to start reforms and changes).
2)The poor quality of professional advice, and the low quality of media analyses.
3)This is the most interesting. An analyst and financial journalist claims that foreigners using Saudis as fronts are responsible for the market weakness. The report hints at dark conspiracies as part of a psychological war against the kingdom. It did not specify who these foreigners work for. Could it be the Zionists in Israel or the Shi’a mullahs in Iran? Or perhaps both. I can imagine some Wahabi/Salafi sheikhs scrambling to whip out their well-thumbed mass-market editions of that venerable best seller of the Tsarist Okhrana ‘The Protocols of the Elders of Zion’.
Some have called for the activation of the Equilibrium Fund that was ordered by King Abdullah earlier this year, with the goal of maintaining market ‘stability’. Others urge that the country’s oil surpluses be invested in the domestic stock market. They claim that even the World Bank has recommended such measures. I am doubtful that the IBRD would recommend such steps, not unless it has been relocated from Washington to beautiful downtown Riyadh- which would require replacing Paul Wolfowitz for obvious reasons which we will not discuss in this age of the New Middle East.
GCC Currency and Customs:
Some reports indicate that Oman has opted out of a unified GCC Gulf currency because of failure to establish a customs union. A UAE official has pointed the finger at Saudi Arabia as the main force behind this failure. He claims that Saudi Arabian trade policies are highly protective, that it imposes extra tariffs of up to 15% on about 300 products, including steel and textiles, when the rate should not be more than 5%.
Another pint of contention is that Bahrain and Oman have signed agreements with the United States on lowering tariffs, something that is controversial to other members of the GCC.
It now looks almost certain that the Gulf currency union will be postponed beyond 2010.
Perhaps the potentates of the GCC, or at least their monetary and economic chiefs, should go back and take another look at the history of that old arrangement, the Deutscher Zollverein of about, oh, 150 years ago. They should learn some important lessons of the ABCs of customs and currency unions.
Cheers
Mohammed
A report in the Saudi daily Okaz hints that foreign capital movements may be responsible for the consistent Saudi market decline. Others have come up with their own explanations, which include:
1)The authorities have started new trading and transparency measures at the wrong time. (Note: it is always the wrong time to start reforms and changes).
2)The poor quality of professional advice, and the low quality of media analyses.
3)This is the most interesting. An analyst and financial journalist claims that foreigners using Saudis as fronts are responsible for the market weakness. The report hints at dark conspiracies as part of a psychological war against the kingdom. It did not specify who these foreigners work for. Could it be the Zionists in Israel or the Shi’a mullahs in Iran? Or perhaps both. I can imagine some Wahabi/Salafi sheikhs scrambling to whip out their well-thumbed mass-market editions of that venerable best seller of the Tsarist Okhrana ‘The Protocols of the Elders of Zion’.
Some have called for the activation of the Equilibrium Fund that was ordered by King Abdullah earlier this year, with the goal of maintaining market ‘stability’. Others urge that the country’s oil surpluses be invested in the domestic stock market. They claim that even the World Bank has recommended such measures. I am doubtful that the IBRD would recommend such steps, not unless it has been relocated from Washington to beautiful downtown Riyadh- which would require replacing Paul Wolfowitz for obvious reasons which we will not discuss in this age of the New Middle East.
GCC Currency and Customs:
Some reports indicate that Oman has opted out of a unified GCC Gulf currency because of failure to establish a customs union. A UAE official has pointed the finger at Saudi Arabia as the main force behind this failure. He claims that Saudi Arabian trade policies are highly protective, that it imposes extra tariffs of up to 15% on about 300 products, including steel and textiles, when the rate should not be more than 5%.
Another pint of contention is that Bahrain and Oman have signed agreements with the United States on lowering tariffs, something that is controversial to other members of the GCC.
It now looks almost certain that the Gulf currency union will be postponed beyond 2010.
Perhaps the potentates of the GCC, or at least their monetary and economic chiefs, should go back and take another look at the history of that old arrangement, the Deutscher Zollverein of about, oh, 150 years ago. They should learn some important lessons of the ABCs of customs and currency unions.
Cheers
Mohammed
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Arming The Gulf Arabs: War Among The Corrupt and the Bribed
Corruption in the Gulf:
A war of words has been raging among the Gulf Arab rulers and their media surrogates about corruption. It concentrates on Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and was triggered by the British Serious Fraud Office (SFO) investigation of bribes paid over time to senior members to the Saudi royal family by BAE, a major arms manufacturer in connection with the huge, $84 billion, Al-Yamamah deal. The report was ignored by most 'moderate' Arab media, especially in the Persian Gulf states, but was reported extensively in Aljazeera, stationed in Qatar, as well as some Arab newspapers that are printed in Europe. Saudi-owned outlets, including offshore Saudi media giants such as Alarabiya TV, Alhayat and Ashaq Alawsat newspapers predictably declined to report.
British media agree that the government's recent decision to abort the investigation has saved a pending GBP 20 billion deal for 72 Eurofighter Typhoon jet fighters: the Saudis had brought immense pressure to end the investigation, threatening to cancel the contract. The Times of London reported today, in a typically British understatement, that "The SFO investigation is understood to have deeply embarrassed members of the Saudi royal family."
A British delegation was attending a United Nations conference on fighting corruption in Amman, denouncing sleaze and corruption 'wherever it can be found', when news broke out that the British government has decided to abandon the SFO inquiry into the bribery case 'in the interests of national security'. The Economist has a leader this week titled " Bribe Britannia".
(Q: are these huge payments of bribes tax deductible?)
The Saudis have countered with allegations of corruption and kickbacks among Qatari sheikhs. Given the tense diplomatic/foreign relations between the two countries, it was natural that the Saudi allegations picked the Qatari Foreign Minister as a target.
Nobody actually denies specific allegations of being corrupt, but each one tries to show that the other is corrupt as well, perhaps even more corrupt if at all possible. Most people in the Gulf GCC states are stoic about the whole thing: they know that corruption and kickbacks (often called commissions and paid to influential potentates, their children and their wives) are part of life in the oil era; just like death and taxes (the taxes would be in the West, of course).
Gulf Economics:
Saudi Arabia's finance Minister has finally said that it is possible that the unified GCC currency will not become a reality by the appointed date, 2010. Oman has already publicly opted to stay out, and this may have encouraged others to balk. It now looks like the currency plan will be postponed beyond 2010.
Iraq:
Iraqi and Arab media reports that former Minister of Electricity Ayham Al-Samarrai has escaped jail with the help of hired foreign security experts, alleged to be Americans. He was in prison on charges of corruption and embezzlement while he was minister under former prime Minister Ayad Allawi. Al-Samarrai is reported to hold dual U.S and Iraqi citizenships.
Iran:
Presidnet Ahmadinejad has suffered a moderate defeat in local and council elections. In response, he went out and claimed again that his country is now a 'nuclear power'. (Who is his Karl Rove?)
University students in Tehran seem to be gearing up for some confrontation with him because of alleged meddling in university affairs. The United nations Security Council may be getting closer to an agreement on sanctions, probably a much weaker resolution than the United States and her Arab allies would like.
Cheers
Mohammed
A war of words has been raging among the Gulf Arab rulers and their media surrogates about corruption. It concentrates on Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and was triggered by the British Serious Fraud Office (SFO) investigation of bribes paid over time to senior members to the Saudi royal family by BAE, a major arms manufacturer in connection with the huge, $84 billion, Al-Yamamah deal. The report was ignored by most 'moderate' Arab media, especially in the Persian Gulf states, but was reported extensively in Aljazeera, stationed in Qatar, as well as some Arab newspapers that are printed in Europe. Saudi-owned outlets, including offshore Saudi media giants such as Alarabiya TV, Alhayat and Ashaq Alawsat newspapers predictably declined to report.
British media agree that the government's recent decision to abort the investigation has saved a pending GBP 20 billion deal for 72 Eurofighter Typhoon jet fighters: the Saudis had brought immense pressure to end the investigation, threatening to cancel the contract. The Times of London reported today, in a typically British understatement, that "The SFO investigation is understood to have deeply embarrassed members of the Saudi royal family."
A British delegation was attending a United Nations conference on fighting corruption in Amman, denouncing sleaze and corruption 'wherever it can be found', when news broke out that the British government has decided to abandon the SFO inquiry into the bribery case 'in the interests of national security'. The Economist has a leader this week titled " Bribe Britannia".
(Q: are these huge payments of bribes tax deductible?)
The Saudis have countered with allegations of corruption and kickbacks among Qatari sheikhs. Given the tense diplomatic/foreign relations between the two countries, it was natural that the Saudi allegations picked the Qatari Foreign Minister as a target.
Nobody actually denies specific allegations of being corrupt, but each one tries to show that the other is corrupt as well, perhaps even more corrupt if at all possible. Most people in the Gulf GCC states are stoic about the whole thing: they know that corruption and kickbacks (often called commissions and paid to influential potentates, their children and their wives) are part of life in the oil era; just like death and taxes (the taxes would be in the West, of course).
Gulf Economics:
Saudi Arabia's finance Minister has finally said that it is possible that the unified GCC currency will not become a reality by the appointed date, 2010. Oman has already publicly opted to stay out, and this may have encouraged others to balk. It now looks like the currency plan will be postponed beyond 2010.
Iraq:
Iraqi and Arab media reports that former Minister of Electricity Ayham Al-Samarrai has escaped jail with the help of hired foreign security experts, alleged to be Americans. He was in prison on charges of corruption and embezzlement while he was minister under former prime Minister Ayad Allawi. Al-Samarrai is reported to hold dual U.S and Iraqi citizenships.
Iran:
Presidnet Ahmadinejad has suffered a moderate defeat in local and council elections. In response, he went out and claimed again that his country is now a 'nuclear power'. (Who is his Karl Rove?)
University students in Tehran seem to be gearing up for some confrontation with him because of alleged meddling in university affairs. The United nations Security Council may be getting closer to an agreement on sanctions, probably a much weaker resolution than the United States and her Arab allies would like.
Cheers
Mohammed
Thursday, December 14, 2006
Late Changes in Iraq? Whip of Arabia, Moslem-Jewish HIV Cure
A New Strategery for Iraq?
One option under consideration is to increase the number of troops to a level sufficient to crush the insurgency and weaken the militias in Baghdad. But they are talking about 20,000 to 30,000 troops, and that is a far cry from the Powell Doctrine, and perhaps it is too little too late. Massive overwhelming force should have been used in 2003.
Saudis Crack the Whip:
U.S media reports (e.g. NY Times Dec 12, CNN) indicate that Saudi King Abdullah reprimanded Vice President Dick Cheney during his visit about a possible shift in U.S policy in Iraq. The newspapers also seemed to hint that Mr. Cheney was called to Riyadh.
So, let us get this straight: the most influential vice president in the history of the most powerful nation on earth was summoned to a dressing down by the aging absolute monarch of a kingdom with one foot in the 20th century and other foot in the 9th century.
The same media also report that the Saudis warned Cheney that they would intervene in Iraq if the U.S withdrew- something the Saudis denied earlier having threatened. They are also reported to have warned against a U.S rapprochement with Iran. A security advisor to the embassy in Washington and to the government, Nawaf Obaid, was even recently sacrificed because he foolishly said as much in an Op-Ed piece in the Washington Post last week (if he was fired because of the poor quality of the piece in the Post, then it was punishment well deserved). Now the Saudi Ambassador Prince Turki has resigned suddenly and left for, or going, home. Some reports claim that he has not been as effective as Bandar in gaining influnece in Washington, others claim that he might become the next foreign minister.
P.S: are the rumors (swirling in my head) true: that Prince Bandar will be brought back to Washington, not as a Saudi ambassador but as a part-time American National Security Adviser, a role Bob Woodward claimed he was performing anyway?
Iraqi media report that the White House had to intervene to control escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iraq. This was in the aftermath of the reported Saudi intervention threats, and especially after declarations issued by 38 Saudi religious leaders that contained derogatory and inflammatory language against Shi’as and accused them of cooperating with the 'crusaders' in Iraq to put down Sunnis. And I thought these 'crusaders' launched their invasion of Iraq from Saudi Arabia (logistics, communications, and air), Kuwait (land and air), Qatar (planning, air and communications) and UAE, Bahrain, and Oman! Yesterday a Saudi offshore station reported that Abdulaziz Al-Shaikh, the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia condemned the declarations of those religious leaders.
Saudis have promised that they will not support the insurgency/terrorism in Iraq as long as the United States forces remain in that country. On this matter: Iraq’s Finance Minister Jawad Bulani has complained at a conference in Bahrain last week that money flows to the terrorist Jihadists from ‘rich sources’ in the Gulf region, and that could not be , say Yemen, Sudan or Jordan. The Associated Press reports that many influential Saudis, including some princes, are funnelling millions of dollars to the insurgents in Iraq.
An Iraqi newspaper Al-Nahrain (Two Rivers) quotes from The Times of London that a meeting was arranged and held in Ayad Allawi's palace in Amman between terrorist/insurgent leaders and U.S officials, including ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad. It claims that the meeting failed because the insurgents demanded thay they gain control of the military and security forces....just like in the good old Ba'athist days.
One thing about the Baker-Hamilton ISG report on Iraq: it has something for eveybody to hate- which probably means that it is not a bad report.
Iran Elections:
Reformists are trying for a comeback in the next municipal and regional elections in Tehran on Friday. The results will be a test of the strength of moderates who largely boycotted the last two elections. It will also be a test of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was elected on a platform of improving the economy, but got sidetracked by regional and international crises, some of it of his own making. Ahmadinejad’s sister is a candidate.
In Iran, the final say in most policy matters rests with the Supreme Leader- he can at least make life difficult for a president he disagrees with, as the last reformist president Mr. Khatami found out quickly.
Note to Tony Snow: If Iran was part of the Axis of Evil under the mild and moderate Khatami (circa 2002, just after it was reported to have helped with the Afghan incursion), then what is it now under the current definitely-no-so-mild and un-moderate president?
You Figure It out (Miscellaneous):
A study by the National Institute of Health (NIH) seems to confirm results reached earlier in South Africa: that male circumcision reduces the danger of contracting AIDS (HIV) by 50% in cases of heterosexual intercourse. I believe it is likely that Jews and Moslems have much less risk of HIV than other infidels, and not just because they (we) are too uptight about sex (Philip Roth's early novels notwithstanding).
Cheers
Mohammed
One option under consideration is to increase the number of troops to a level sufficient to crush the insurgency and weaken the militias in Baghdad. But they are talking about 20,000 to 30,000 troops, and that is a far cry from the Powell Doctrine, and perhaps it is too little too late. Massive overwhelming force should have been used in 2003.
Saudis Crack the Whip:
U.S media reports (e.g. NY Times Dec 12, CNN) indicate that Saudi King Abdullah reprimanded Vice President Dick Cheney during his visit about a possible shift in U.S policy in Iraq. The newspapers also seemed to hint that Mr. Cheney was called to Riyadh.
So, let us get this straight: the most influential vice president in the history of the most powerful nation on earth was summoned to a dressing down by the aging absolute monarch of a kingdom with one foot in the 20th century and other foot in the 9th century.
The same media also report that the Saudis warned Cheney that they would intervene in Iraq if the U.S withdrew- something the Saudis denied earlier having threatened. They are also reported to have warned against a U.S rapprochement with Iran. A security advisor to the embassy in Washington and to the government, Nawaf Obaid, was even recently sacrificed because he foolishly said as much in an Op-Ed piece in the Washington Post last week (if he was fired because of the poor quality of the piece in the Post, then it was punishment well deserved). Now the Saudi Ambassador Prince Turki has resigned suddenly and left for, or going, home. Some reports claim that he has not been as effective as Bandar in gaining influnece in Washington, others claim that he might become the next foreign minister.
P.S: are the rumors (swirling in my head) true: that Prince Bandar will be brought back to Washington, not as a Saudi ambassador but as a part-time American National Security Adviser, a role Bob Woodward claimed he was performing anyway?
Iraqi media report that the White House had to intervene to control escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iraq. This was in the aftermath of the reported Saudi intervention threats, and especially after declarations issued by 38 Saudi religious leaders that contained derogatory and inflammatory language against Shi’as and accused them of cooperating with the 'crusaders' in Iraq to put down Sunnis. And I thought these 'crusaders' launched their invasion of Iraq from Saudi Arabia (logistics, communications, and air), Kuwait (land and air), Qatar (planning, air and communications) and UAE, Bahrain, and Oman! Yesterday a Saudi offshore station reported that Abdulaziz Al-Shaikh, the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia condemned the declarations of those religious leaders.
Saudis have promised that they will not support the insurgency/terrorism in Iraq as long as the United States forces remain in that country. On this matter: Iraq’s Finance Minister Jawad Bulani has complained at a conference in Bahrain last week that money flows to the terrorist Jihadists from ‘rich sources’ in the Gulf region, and that could not be , say Yemen, Sudan or Jordan. The Associated Press reports that many influential Saudis, including some princes, are funnelling millions of dollars to the insurgents in Iraq.
An Iraqi newspaper Al-Nahrain (Two Rivers) quotes from The Times of London that a meeting was arranged and held in Ayad Allawi's palace in Amman between terrorist/insurgent leaders and U.S officials, including ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad. It claims that the meeting failed because the insurgents demanded thay they gain control of the military and security forces....just like in the good old Ba'athist days.
One thing about the Baker-Hamilton ISG report on Iraq: it has something for eveybody to hate- which probably means that it is not a bad report.
Iran Elections:
Reformists are trying for a comeback in the next municipal and regional elections in Tehran on Friday. The results will be a test of the strength of moderates who largely boycotted the last two elections. It will also be a test of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was elected on a platform of improving the economy, but got sidetracked by regional and international crises, some of it of his own making. Ahmadinejad’s sister is a candidate.
In Iran, the final say in most policy matters rests with the Supreme Leader- he can at least make life difficult for a president he disagrees with, as the last reformist president Mr. Khatami found out quickly.
Note to Tony Snow: If Iran was part of the Axis of Evil under the mild and moderate Khatami (circa 2002, just after it was reported to have helped with the Afghan incursion), then what is it now under the current definitely-no-so-mild and un-moderate president?
You Figure It out (Miscellaneous):
A study by the National Institute of Health (NIH) seems to confirm results reached earlier in South Africa: that male circumcision reduces the danger of contracting AIDS (HIV) by 50% in cases of heterosexual intercourse. I believe it is likely that Jews and Moslems have much less risk of HIV than other infidels, and not just because they (we) are too uptight about sex (Philip Roth's early novels notwithstanding).
Cheers
Mohammed
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Gulf Finances, Yemeni Counter-Terrorism, Tehran Holocaust
GCC Finance:
London-based Al-Hayat quotes a report about financial markets in the Persian Gulf states that estimates market capitalization losses during 2006 have exceeded the combined GDP of these countries. The decline is estimated at about 160% of GDP. Now banks form about one third of total market value of the listed stocks, with telecommunications taking second place. SABIC, the huge Saudi petrochemical conglomerate, has lost about 66% of its market value. The report also claims that the markets are now close to bottoming out. The report claims that the GCC market losses were the largest in the history of emerging markets...that is, if these markets are indeed emerging from somewhere.
The report contains interesting data that should be confirmed- it claims that the UAE market losses reached 254% of the GDP, while for Saudi Arabia it was 170% of GDP. The losses were bad across the region, with the total reaching $ 907 billion (total GDP is estimated at $ 565.7 billion, presumably based on some average of oil prices for the year). The rerport also indicates that margin financing may have exacerbated the impact of market declines.
During the last GCC summit in Riyadh, Oman declared that it will not join the regional unified currency that is slated for 2010. It is now very likely that the project will be postponed.
Iraq Politics:
Iraqi newspapers, both Shi'a (al-Sabah) and Sunnni (Azzaman), and others in the region, report that a new parliamentary coalition might be formed in Iraq. The reports claim that this new alliance will consist of SCIRI of Abdulaziz al-Hakim (the Shi'a leader who met with Mr. Bush last week), the two main Kurdish parties, and the Iraq Islamic Party of Mr al-Hashimi, the Sunni vice president who will meet with President Bush soon. The reported goal is to patch together a new government to replace al-Maliki's cabinet and leave Muqtada al-Sadr out in the cold. Perhaps it will work, but is it wise at this stage to push al-Sadr completely out of politics, and back toward his renegade commanders on the ground?
Yemenis Use Marriage as Counter-terrorism:
In Yemen, authorities have revealed a novel way for dealing with their citizens who join terrorist organizations such as al-Qaida: they marry them off. The goal is to create an atmosphere of social stability that would keep them away from fundamentalist organizations. (And presumably divert some of their energies toward more....creative pursuits). The head of the Yemen Mukhabarat Secret Police has revealed the new plan, which can be called, perhaps somewhat unoriginally, 'Make Love not War'. He claims the plan has kept many young men from returning to their bro's bent on killing and mayhem. The Yemeni official did not elaborate on the sources of the brides, and how they get them together. Perhaps something like e-harmony in Arabia Felix...very felix indeed. Osama, let us see you come up with a counter-plan: perhaps you can get one of the shaikhs to issue a fatwa upping the number to 73.
Yemen seems to look at matrimony as a solution to many problems: last week it was revealed that they are testing a plan to marry off men and women who carry HIV to each other- not a bad plan come to think of it, provided that they do not create new offspring.
Bahrain:
A new cabinet was formed in Bahrain or, rather, the old cabinet is back with a few new members. For the first time one of the deputy prime ministers is a Shi'a (Shiite). That this has made regional headline news tells you where things are coming from (Shi'as form over 70% of the population of the island nation). Twelve of the 23 ministers are from the ruling family, al-Khalifa, which gives them a nice majority if they ever need it. This is a tiny step. Now, perhaps something can be done about those neglected villages where Shi'as live in hovels.
Iran and the Holocaust:
The only places where doubts are still cast about the veracity of the Holocaust are in the Arab World and in the halls of the Iranian government. And perhaps in the deep dark recesses of some skinhead dens across Europe, both old and new.
Sixty researchers have started a conference on the whole thing in Tehran. Among the participants, all of them fringe elements from across the world, several of the prominent ones have served jail terms in Europe for anti-semetic activities. Iran's Foreign Minister said that 'the goal is not to prove or deny the holocaust, but to answer questions raised by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad', whatever they are. No indication if they will try to answer any questions raised by the man's statements about his own condition.
Iran's diminishing Jewish community has condemned the conference. The only Jewish member of the Iranian Parliament, Maurice Mutamedi, has said that the conference is an insult to all Jews around the world.
One thing about the little Iranian president: he sure knows how to win friends and influence people around the world. He can write his own book on the subject. Every time he opens his mouth he gets it in deeper. And speaking of which, reports say that he was heckled by students at Tehran University two days ago.
Cheers
Mohammed
mhg6363@gmail.com
London-based Al-Hayat quotes a report about financial markets in the Persian Gulf states that estimates market capitalization losses during 2006 have exceeded the combined GDP of these countries. The decline is estimated at about 160% of GDP. Now banks form about one third of total market value of the listed stocks, with telecommunications taking second place. SABIC, the huge Saudi petrochemical conglomerate, has lost about 66% of its market value. The report also claims that the markets are now close to bottoming out. The report claims that the GCC market losses were the largest in the history of emerging markets...that is, if these markets are indeed emerging from somewhere.
The report contains interesting data that should be confirmed- it claims that the UAE market losses reached 254% of the GDP, while for Saudi Arabia it was 170% of GDP. The losses were bad across the region, with the total reaching $ 907 billion (total GDP is estimated at $ 565.7 billion, presumably based on some average of oil prices for the year). The rerport also indicates that margin financing may have exacerbated the impact of market declines.
During the last GCC summit in Riyadh, Oman declared that it will not join the regional unified currency that is slated for 2010. It is now very likely that the project will be postponed.
Iraq Politics:
Iraqi newspapers, both Shi'a (al-Sabah) and Sunnni (Azzaman), and others in the region, report that a new parliamentary coalition might be formed in Iraq. The reports claim that this new alliance will consist of SCIRI of Abdulaziz al-Hakim (the Shi'a leader who met with Mr. Bush last week), the two main Kurdish parties, and the Iraq Islamic Party of Mr al-Hashimi, the Sunni vice president who will meet with President Bush soon. The reported goal is to patch together a new government to replace al-Maliki's cabinet and leave Muqtada al-Sadr out in the cold. Perhaps it will work, but is it wise at this stage to push al-Sadr completely out of politics, and back toward his renegade commanders on the ground?
Yemenis Use Marriage as Counter-terrorism:
In Yemen, authorities have revealed a novel way for dealing with their citizens who join terrorist organizations such as al-Qaida: they marry them off. The goal is to create an atmosphere of social stability that would keep them away from fundamentalist organizations. (And presumably divert some of their energies toward more....creative pursuits). The head of the Yemen Mukhabarat Secret Police has revealed the new plan, which can be called, perhaps somewhat unoriginally, 'Make Love not War'. He claims the plan has kept many young men from returning to their bro's bent on killing and mayhem. The Yemeni official did not elaborate on the sources of the brides, and how they get them together. Perhaps something like e-harmony in Arabia Felix...very felix indeed. Osama, let us see you come up with a counter-plan: perhaps you can get one of the shaikhs to issue a fatwa upping the number to 73.
Yemen seems to look at matrimony as a solution to many problems: last week it was revealed that they are testing a plan to marry off men and women who carry HIV to each other- not a bad plan come to think of it, provided that they do not create new offspring.
Bahrain:
A new cabinet was formed in Bahrain or, rather, the old cabinet is back with a few new members. For the first time one of the deputy prime ministers is a Shi'a (Shiite). That this has made regional headline news tells you where things are coming from (Shi'as form over 70% of the population of the island nation). Twelve of the 23 ministers are from the ruling family, al-Khalifa, which gives them a nice majority if they ever need it. This is a tiny step. Now, perhaps something can be done about those neglected villages where Shi'as live in hovels.
Iran and the Holocaust:
The only places where doubts are still cast about the veracity of the Holocaust are in the Arab World and in the halls of the Iranian government. And perhaps in the deep dark recesses of some skinhead dens across Europe, both old and new.
Sixty researchers have started a conference on the whole thing in Tehran. Among the participants, all of them fringe elements from across the world, several of the prominent ones have served jail terms in Europe for anti-semetic activities. Iran's Foreign Minister said that 'the goal is not to prove or deny the holocaust, but to answer questions raised by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad', whatever they are. No indication if they will try to answer any questions raised by the man's statements about his own condition.
Iran's diminishing Jewish community has condemned the conference. The only Jewish member of the Iranian Parliament, Maurice Mutamedi, has said that the conference is an insult to all Jews around the world.
One thing about the little Iranian president: he sure knows how to win friends and influence people around the world. He can write his own book on the subject. Every time he opens his mouth he gets it in deeper. And speaking of which, reports say that he was heckled by students at Tehran University two days ago.
Cheers
Mohammed
mhg6363@gmail.com
Sunday, December 10, 2006
Iraq Against Baker-Hamilton, The Sectarian Side of Saudi Education
Iraq Again, Naturally:
New York Times 12/9/06 Reports: "Iraqi officials are near agreement on a national oil law that would give the central government the power to distribute current and future oil revenues to the provinces or regions, based on their population, Iraqi and American officials say. If enacted, the measure, drafted by a committee of politicians and ministers, could help resolve a highly divisive issue that has consistently blocked efforts to reconcile the country’s feuding ethnic and sectarian factions. Sunni Arabs, who lead the insurgency, have opposed the idea of regional autonomy for fear that they would be deprived of a fair share of the country’s oil wealth, which is concentrated in the Shiite south and Kurdish north. The Iraq Study Group report stressed that an oil law guaranteeing an equitable distribution of revenues was crucial to the process of national reconciliation, and thus to ending the war."
Anyone who expects an oil agreement to end the insurgency/terror campaign against Iraqi civilians must be commpletely ignorant of the Arab World and its sectarian passions, especially in Iraq and the Persian Gulf states where most of the money to fund the terror originates. Whoever heard of a bloody, fierce and genocidal insurgency being fought for oil revenues? Or for a couple of more cabinet posts (for the Sunnis in this case)? While sharing oil revenues among regions is important for long-term Iraqi stability, it is not as important for short term security and stabilization as Westerners hope. The terror war in Iraq is not waged for oil or cabinet positions: it is a war for rolling back the results of the U.S invasion and the Iraqi elections, and re-establishing Sunni hegemony. Except now a new Salafi Islamist element is thrown in as well, which further complicates matters.
On the other hand, Masoud Barzani, Persident of the Kurdish region, has strongly rejected the Baker-Hamilton idea of revising the Iraqi constitution- presumably with a view to watering down the enshrined regional autonomy rights. This is one issue that the Kurds and most Shi'as of Iraq probably agree on. The issue of Kirkuk is another point where the Kurds disagree, strongly, with the Baker-Hamilton conclusions. The Kurds do not want a referendum on the future status of the city postponed. They want Kirkuk as part of their autonomous region. President Talibani also accused Baker-Hamilton of treating Iraq as a 'colony'.
The Riyadh summit of GCC rulers called for an end to foreign intervention in Iraq, and by doing so, they intervened in Iraq. They also called for a joint peaceful nuclear program for the member countries.
In any case, Iraq is clearly on the cusp of a new era. This is comparable to the early 1920s, when Iraq was being patched together by the British occupation. Ultimately, the British opted to hand power to the Sunni minority, who seemed at the time quite pro-British. At the same time, the Arab region was undergoing other changes: The Kingdom of Najd was ruled by Abdulaziz al-Saud, who was already eying the eastern region (al-ahsaa') as well as Hashemite-ruled Hijaz. Jordan did not exist: TransJordan was a part of larger Palestine before the British decided to reward Prince Abdullah with his own desert kingdom. It looks increasingly likely that the eventual outcome for Iraq will be a loose federalist state composed of semi-autonomous regions. The eventuality of this outcome is strengthened with each mass suicide-killing, and with each sectarian genocide in Baghdad and its environs.
Shi'as (Shiites) in Saudi Arabia:
An article on the website of the Saudi-owned Alarabiya TV, written by Salih al-Turaiki, deals with the issue of discrimination against the minority Shi'as (Shiites) in Saudi Arabia. This is the first time that I know of the mainstream Saudi media dealing with this issue, albeit it is on a TV station that operates from outside the country. Saudi Shi'as concentrate in their ancestral homeland of al-Hasa (al-Ihsaa') along the oil-rich east coast, what is officially called the Eastern Region.
To give the reader an idea about the depth and range of discrimination, I have decided to translate whole portions of the article, while trying to preserve the nuances of the expressions used in the original Arabic. It starts by questioning the criteria and standards used for admissions at Saudi Universities and Colleges. This is a somewhat unusual article, trust me on this one- the italics are my own explanation or summary of some phrases:
"A high higher education official at the Najran region (Southern Arabia) commented on the criteria used to admit people to universities. She asserted that universities prevent many from obtaining higher degrees, mainly because the candidates came from an undesirable sect or from the wrong region. These particular applicants (presumably Shia's) are interviewed by special admissions committees, and usually they are asked questions that are not faced by others, questions unrelated to academia such as about their religious sects and about their opinions of certain people and current events.
"I remember when I was a (soccer) player, often some of my Shi'a (Shiite) friends in the Eastern region thought that I could mediate for them to be admitted at universities. When I tried to help them, many others would advise me not to bother, that I shouuld not use up goodwill and lose face in an endeavor where no one would help me. Whenever I asked someone to help a Shi'a friend, I met with almost legendary stories full of rumors, a natural thing when society and all doors are closed in one's face. All my attempts to help failed, even though each one of those Shi'as had scored 85% and more in their tests, much higher than what the universities required.
"Universites should make their own decisions about admissions, and should not let these decisions in the hands of committees whose members have absolute power (to discriminate). It is unjust and harmful to society to discriminate among citizens, and these attitudes were developed by the close-minded among us who were allowed to lead our society. I also know that tribalism played a role in determining who got admitted at universities.
We all see that the Middle East region is inflammable now, and now is the time we should unite and re-organize our society. The criteia for admissions to universities and jobs should be purely based on ability and performance, and not based on the sect and the tribe.
Societies are led by educated elites, and they are usually created by universities or they also teach at these universities.It is time for our universities to assume their role and lead society, and not the opposite whereby the universities allow the prejeduces of society to lead them. Our unoversities must be open to people of all sects and races......."
Cheers
Mohammed
New York Times 12/9/06 Reports: "Iraqi officials are near agreement on a national oil law that would give the central government the power to distribute current and future oil revenues to the provinces or regions, based on their population, Iraqi and American officials say. If enacted, the measure, drafted by a committee of politicians and ministers, could help resolve a highly divisive issue that has consistently blocked efforts to reconcile the country’s feuding ethnic and sectarian factions. Sunni Arabs, who lead the insurgency, have opposed the idea of regional autonomy for fear that they would be deprived of a fair share of the country’s oil wealth, which is concentrated in the Shiite south and Kurdish north. The Iraq Study Group report stressed that an oil law guaranteeing an equitable distribution of revenues was crucial to the process of national reconciliation, and thus to ending the war."
Anyone who expects an oil agreement to end the insurgency/terror campaign against Iraqi civilians must be commpletely ignorant of the Arab World and its sectarian passions, especially in Iraq and the Persian Gulf states where most of the money to fund the terror originates. Whoever heard of a bloody, fierce and genocidal insurgency being fought for oil revenues? Or for a couple of more cabinet posts (for the Sunnis in this case)? While sharing oil revenues among regions is important for long-term Iraqi stability, it is not as important for short term security and stabilization as Westerners hope. The terror war in Iraq is not waged for oil or cabinet positions: it is a war for rolling back the results of the U.S invasion and the Iraqi elections, and re-establishing Sunni hegemony. Except now a new Salafi Islamist element is thrown in as well, which further complicates matters.
On the other hand, Masoud Barzani, Persident of the Kurdish region, has strongly rejected the Baker-Hamilton idea of revising the Iraqi constitution- presumably with a view to watering down the enshrined regional autonomy rights. This is one issue that the Kurds and most Shi'as of Iraq probably agree on. The issue of Kirkuk is another point where the Kurds disagree, strongly, with the Baker-Hamilton conclusions. The Kurds do not want a referendum on the future status of the city postponed. They want Kirkuk as part of their autonomous region. President Talibani also accused Baker-Hamilton of treating Iraq as a 'colony'.
The Riyadh summit of GCC rulers called for an end to foreign intervention in Iraq, and by doing so, they intervened in Iraq. They also called for a joint peaceful nuclear program for the member countries.
In any case, Iraq is clearly on the cusp of a new era. This is comparable to the early 1920s, when Iraq was being patched together by the British occupation. Ultimately, the British opted to hand power to the Sunni minority, who seemed at the time quite pro-British. At the same time, the Arab region was undergoing other changes: The Kingdom of Najd was ruled by Abdulaziz al-Saud, who was already eying the eastern region (al-ahsaa') as well as Hashemite-ruled Hijaz. Jordan did not exist: TransJordan was a part of larger Palestine before the British decided to reward Prince Abdullah with his own desert kingdom. It looks increasingly likely that the eventual outcome for Iraq will be a loose federalist state composed of semi-autonomous regions. The eventuality of this outcome is strengthened with each mass suicide-killing, and with each sectarian genocide in Baghdad and its environs.
Shi'as (Shiites) in Saudi Arabia:
An article on the website of the Saudi-owned Alarabiya TV, written by Salih al-Turaiki, deals with the issue of discrimination against the minority Shi'as (Shiites) in Saudi Arabia. This is the first time that I know of the mainstream Saudi media dealing with this issue, albeit it is on a TV station that operates from outside the country. Saudi Shi'as concentrate in their ancestral homeland of al-Hasa (al-Ihsaa') along the oil-rich east coast, what is officially called the Eastern Region.
To give the reader an idea about the depth and range of discrimination, I have decided to translate whole portions of the article, while trying to preserve the nuances of the expressions used in the original Arabic. It starts by questioning the criteria and standards used for admissions at Saudi Universities and Colleges. This is a somewhat unusual article, trust me on this one- the italics are my own explanation or summary of some phrases:
"A high higher education official at the Najran region (Southern Arabia) commented on the criteria used to admit people to universities. She asserted that universities prevent many from obtaining higher degrees, mainly because the candidates came from an undesirable sect or from the wrong region. These particular applicants (presumably Shia's) are interviewed by special admissions committees, and usually they are asked questions that are not faced by others, questions unrelated to academia such as about their religious sects and about their opinions of certain people and current events.
"I remember when I was a (soccer) player, often some of my Shi'a (Shiite) friends in the Eastern region thought that I could mediate for them to be admitted at universities. When I tried to help them, many others would advise me not to bother, that I shouuld not use up goodwill and lose face in an endeavor where no one would help me. Whenever I asked someone to help a Shi'a friend, I met with almost legendary stories full of rumors, a natural thing when society and all doors are closed in one's face. All my attempts to help failed, even though each one of those Shi'as had scored 85% and more in their tests, much higher than what the universities required.
"Universites should make their own decisions about admissions, and should not let these decisions in the hands of committees whose members have absolute power (to discriminate). It is unjust and harmful to society to discriminate among citizens, and these attitudes were developed by the close-minded among us who were allowed to lead our society. I also know that tribalism played a role in determining who got admitted at universities.
We all see that the Middle East region is inflammable now, and now is the time we should unite and re-organize our society. The criteia for admissions to universities and jobs should be purely based on ability and performance, and not based on the sect and the tribe.
Societies are led by educated elites, and they are usually created by universities or they also teach at these universities.It is time for our universities to assume their role and lead society, and not the opposite whereby the universities allow the prejeduces of society to lead them. Our unoversities must be open to people of all sects and races......."
Cheers
Mohammed
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
Iraq and the Delusion of Reasonable Concessions. Yemeni Cure for HIV, and Jacob-ed in Arabia
The Arabs and ISG of Baker-Hamilton et al:
Arab media have been anticipating the ISG report on Iraq for days now, and most of them have considered it as some sort of admisson of American defeat. So does the Iranian media especially: perhaps this is part propaganda spin and part wishful thinking. The media of U. S allies are clearly unhappy with the anticipated report (already out today) because of its implications for regional security and for the feared role it might allow for Iran. Some of the normally anti-American media, pan-Arabs as well as Fundamentalists, seek a pan-Arab or Islamist arrangement to fill the expected regional 'power vacuum'- and fast, before the Iranian mullahs and their allies do that. Of course there is no Arab consencus on what to do about Iraq, and there is no legitimate avenue for direct outside intervention by autocrats in a country with an elected government, one of two elected governments in the Arab World. The foreign ministers meeting at Cairo this week called for disarming the militias, but did not condemn the Salafi-Ba'athist terror campaign that has pushed most Iraqis toward tolerating these violent militias. They condemned foreign intervention in Iraq, but did not propose anything tangible to improve life in that country.
There has been much talk of concessions to the 'insurgents' in Iraq: but does anyone really believe that the Jihadists and Ba'athists are fighting to secure a couple of more ministerial positions in the Iraqi cabinet for the Sunnis??? Has a terror/insurgent campaign ever been fought with that kind of limited goal? Can anyone be that naive??
Of course all this talk of withdrawal is a delusion- there will be no power vacuum: most influential American politicians are not foolish enough to abandon the Middle East to its fate. The simple reason is that the Middle East, especially the Arab part of it, has not yet shown any ability to manage its own affairs.
Bahrain:
The King of Bahrain has appointed the unelected half of the legislature. Of the 40 appointees, 20 are Sunnis, 18 are Shi'as. The most interesting are the last two members: one Jewish woman and one Christian woman. Jews served in the legislatures of Iraq and Egypt in the old monarchic days, up to the 1940s or early 1950s when these countries had large Jewish populations. Iran's parliament still has a seat reserved for Jews (and one for Christians), Ahmadinejad's anti-Israeli and anti-semitic diatribes notwithstanding. Perhaps we will see seats reserved for a Jew and a christian in a future legislature in Riyadh?
Yemen Cures HIV:
The head of a university in Yemen has claimed that he has discovered a cure for HIV-Aids. Al-Jazeera reported yesterday that Shaikh al-Zindani has called on the United Nations, world organizations and othjer interested parties to send representatives to learn the secrets of this new cure, which is purported to take days to cure the disease. Could it be 'qat????
Saudis do a Rachel-Leah Switch on their Jacob:
A Saudi man had a 'Jacob' done on him, as in switching Leah for Rachel. The man wanted to get married, but in Saudi society girls are under the Bur'qa'a and cannot be seen by other men, at least not while they are in the country. As is customary the man sent his mother around, looking for a wife. One family introduced her to their pretty daughter, and claimed she was available. It was agreed, and the wedding took place. Now, the man could not tell what his wife looked like before the wedding- he had never seen her. The mother could: she had seen her, and the daughter in-law after consummation looked quite different from the daughter in-law pre-concummation. The attractive girl, who is married with children, was used to get her much-less-attractive sister married. Now the man and his mother are demanding the right to return the merchandise back to the family, except that it has been unwrapped and used. They are also demanding the return of the exorbitant dowry he paid her family, and that her sister be prosecuted for impersonation and fraud.
History can repeat itself.
Cheers
Mohammed
Arab media have been anticipating the ISG report on Iraq for days now, and most of them have considered it as some sort of admisson of American defeat. So does the Iranian media especially: perhaps this is part propaganda spin and part wishful thinking. The media of U. S allies are clearly unhappy with the anticipated report (already out today) because of its implications for regional security and for the feared role it might allow for Iran. Some of the normally anti-American media, pan-Arabs as well as Fundamentalists, seek a pan-Arab or Islamist arrangement to fill the expected regional 'power vacuum'- and fast, before the Iranian mullahs and their allies do that. Of course there is no Arab consencus on what to do about Iraq, and there is no legitimate avenue for direct outside intervention by autocrats in a country with an elected government, one of two elected governments in the Arab World. The foreign ministers meeting at Cairo this week called for disarming the militias, but did not condemn the Salafi-Ba'athist terror campaign that has pushed most Iraqis toward tolerating these violent militias. They condemned foreign intervention in Iraq, but did not propose anything tangible to improve life in that country.
There has been much talk of concessions to the 'insurgents' in Iraq: but does anyone really believe that the Jihadists and Ba'athists are fighting to secure a couple of more ministerial positions in the Iraqi cabinet for the Sunnis??? Has a terror/insurgent campaign ever been fought with that kind of limited goal? Can anyone be that naive??
Of course all this talk of withdrawal is a delusion- there will be no power vacuum: most influential American politicians are not foolish enough to abandon the Middle East to its fate. The simple reason is that the Middle East, especially the Arab part of it, has not yet shown any ability to manage its own affairs.
Bahrain:
The King of Bahrain has appointed the unelected half of the legislature. Of the 40 appointees, 20 are Sunnis, 18 are Shi'as. The most interesting are the last two members: one Jewish woman and one Christian woman. Jews served in the legislatures of Iraq and Egypt in the old monarchic days, up to the 1940s or early 1950s when these countries had large Jewish populations. Iran's parliament still has a seat reserved for Jews (and one for Christians), Ahmadinejad's anti-Israeli and anti-semitic diatribes notwithstanding. Perhaps we will see seats reserved for a Jew and a christian in a future legislature in Riyadh?
Yemen Cures HIV:
The head of a university in Yemen has claimed that he has discovered a cure for HIV-Aids. Al-Jazeera reported yesterday that Shaikh al-Zindani has called on the United Nations, world organizations and othjer interested parties to send representatives to learn the secrets of this new cure, which is purported to take days to cure the disease. Could it be 'qat????
Saudis do a Rachel-Leah Switch on their Jacob:
A Saudi man had a 'Jacob' done on him, as in switching Leah for Rachel. The man wanted to get married, but in Saudi society girls are under the Bur'qa'a and cannot be seen by other men, at least not while they are in the country. As is customary the man sent his mother around, looking for a wife. One family introduced her to their pretty daughter, and claimed she was available. It was agreed, and the wedding took place. Now, the man could not tell what his wife looked like before the wedding- he had never seen her. The mother could: she had seen her, and the daughter in-law after consummation looked quite different from the daughter in-law pre-concummation. The attractive girl, who is married with children, was used to get her much-less-attractive sister married. Now the man and his mother are demanding the right to return the merchandise back to the family, except that it has been unwrapped and used. They are also demanding the return of the exorbitant dowry he paid her family, and that her sister be prosecuted for impersonation and fraud.
History can repeat itself.
Cheers
Mohammed
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