Sunnis, Shi'as, al--Qaeda and Despots for Democracy

Absolute Democracy:
In her statement to a Senate committe yesterday, Secretary Condoleezza Rice said that the administration is mobilizing allies, what she called the GCC+2 (that would be the six Persian Gulf monarchies plus poor relations Egypt and Jordan) to 'support embattled democracies' in the region. She rightly listed the embattled democracies as Iraq, the Palestinian Territory, and Lebanon. I wonder if any of the senators noted the irony of mobilizing all these absolute monarchs, potentates, and life-time dictators to support nascent democracies that they not-so-secretly wish would just go away.

The Iraqi government has sent out invitations to a regional meeting in Baghdad later in March. It has invited all her six immediate neighbors as well as the premanent members of the UN Security Council, the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Countries, possibly the EU, etc. It is not yet known if such NGO's as al-Qaeda, The Salafi Islamic Heritage Revival, the KKK, Jean-Marie Le Pin, and the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy will also be included.
The meeting will be watched mainly because it will bring the United States and Iran face to face in Iraq, to discuss Iraq. Perhaps it will be like watching Rhett and Scarlett: the rest, especially the Arab representatives, will be like those faceless extras of long ago. Jaw jaw beats war war, but don't hold your breath for a spectacular breakthrough.

In another possibly positive development, Iraqi Vice President Tareq al-Hashimi, will visit Tehran in early March. Al-Hashimi is the highest ranking Sunni Arab in the Iraqi government.

Iran, the Shi'as, and McCarthy:
The regime in Iran clearly presents a threat to U.S interests in the Middle East. There definitely is a more intense and open rivalry now for influence in the vacuous (no, not a typo) region between Washington and Tehran. It seems that the twenty Arab states are out of the game, mere footnotes in this struggle. True, they do make the right noises occasionally (for example: Egypt and Jordan), and they do use their financial clout (Saudi Arabia), but they have lost the initiative in their own region for some time now.
Yet Washington seems to be committing one serious mistake: it is giving the impression of condoning, at least tacitly, the revival of a virulent anti-Shi'a sectarian campaign across the Middle East. At least that is the impression Arab media would give their audiences. Most Arab headlines in the Middle East are not about 'anti-Iranian' alliances, but of 'anti-Shi'a' alliances, or alliances to stem the 'Shi'a tide'. Except there is no such tide, it is a myth, as much as the imminent threat of a Communist takeover of the United States was in the early 1950s. Several Arab governments, three of them among those GCC+2 mentioned above, have stoked this dangerous sectarian fire with some irresponsible public statements at the very highest levels of government.
The goal is understandable: to reduce and stem Iranian influence. The tactic used over the past several months has been Machiavillian and short-sighted, if anything. It has put the non-Iraqi Shi'a Arabs, most of them in the Gulf and Lebanon, in a few cases they form a plurality or a majority of the population, under suspicion, and in the cross hairs of Salafi/Wahhabi Jihadists and other intolerant groups. And it pushes them to seek the safety and security of their co-religionists, even if they speak a different language. It encourages the Pakistani alumni of Saudi-financed Madrassah's to intensify their ongoing murderous sectarian campaign against the Shi'as of their country. It also plays nicely into the ideology of al-Qaeda and its Pashtun-dominated Taliban allies, who now seem to have all but established a new Emirate, with extensive training camps and all, along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border- perhaps with the blessings of the ISI. It is almost as if the results of the post 9/11 war effort are being reversed.

The Odd Visit:
Iran's Ahmadinejad sure knows how to improve his image around the world, he knows how to pick them. He is now visiting General Omar Hassan al-Basheer, leader of Sudan since the 1980's. al-Basheer is one of the most detested among Arab leaders, which is no mean achievement. Perhaps Mahmoud will take the time to visit Darfur, then head across the border into Chad, where Angelina Jolie is holding court at a refugee camp.
While in Sudan, he got carried away again, calling the 'zionists', a.k.a Israel, an 'impersonification of Satan'. For good measure, he also attacked the usual suspects: the United States and Britain. On the positive hand, Ahmadinejad is flying to Riyadh to meet with the Saudi king, probably to hash out things over the Lebanese and Palestinian impasses. The Saudis, cautious and diplomatic devils that they are, are not likely to provide him with a public forum to embarrass them or his own country.
Cheers
Mohammed