The Arab Summit and the Mafia: Godfather IV

It looks like the Arab summit this week, in Riyadh, will come short as it aspires to tackle issues ranging from Palestine, to Lebanon, Iraq, and inter-Arab trade (yes, there is some trade). Everyone is eager for it to bring back the glories of past Arab summits.....those were glorious only in their rhetoric.
The last such glorious Arab summit was in Baghdad in the spring of 1990, hosted, led and bullied by Saddam Hussein, only weeks before he swept across Kuwait and stood a few meters from Khafji. After that, Arab leaders gave up all pretenses to statesmanship, friendship, and brotherhood: it took Papa George (H.W, that is) and Mama Maggie (of the stout handbag fame) to stiffen the despotic spines. They proved, these Arab leaders, at that time, that on their own they could not organize an orgy in a brothel.

Not much has changed: it might take Tovarischa Condoleezza (of piano fame) to get some firm resolution on the Palestinian-Israeli issue. And she has been trying. The view on the Arab street, for all its worth, is that she has been coaching the Four (it should be the 5=4+1) in last-minute meetings with their foreign ministers, on how the summit should go.

As for Lebanon.....I don't think so: the President, the Speaker of the Parliament, Hizbullah, and their allies aren't playing the game by the rules envisioned by most Arab leaders. So the mess in that beautiful but unfortunate country will continue with the standoff between the allies and proxies of two generous regional oil states, one ruled by a Shi'a (Shiite) fundamentalist regime and the other ruled by a Sunni fundamentalist-absolute-monarchy-tribal regime.

As for Iraq; fohgettaboutit. Arab countries are still collecting Iraqi reparations through the UN for the 1990-91 war: that includes many Arab countries, including those that, like Jordan, sided with Saddam. Besides, governments calling for political changes in Iraq is similar to calling for political changes in, say, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain or Jordan: it is called interfernce in the internal affairs of a sovereign country, with the unsavory, in some cases quite savory, intention of installing a like-minded regime.

So, it will be back to Palestine-Israel: and that cannot be seriously solved without a clear resolution of two issues, the pre-1967 land and the status of the 1948 refugees (are any of them around?). Even if the Arabs adopt the old 2002 initiative (a.k.a Thomas Friedman-Saudi King Abdullah plan), it would not amount to a hill of beans without a clear resolution of these two issues. These two tough points will outlive a Hamas government.

The real achievement of this summit is that it will formalize the petro-dollar era: the Saudi monarchy will finally become the anointed acknowledged dominant Arab power. For the first time in modern history, one family will dominate the Arab World, backed by a vast, bought and paid for, media network of newspapers and satellite television stations. Unfortunately it won't be the Medici family, not even the Borgias. Which means that we are back to the stagnant era of pre-Gulf War and Pre-Iraq: R.I.P reform and democratic aspirations- we will shelve those until oil prices go down. Or until the Arab Barzinis, Tattaglias, and Moe Green decide to gang up on the new leaders. Then, eveyone will go to the mattress again, with Fat Clemenza.

Still, we will be nice and, like all the Arab media, we will call it a success: at least in terms of measured, wise, yet tough rhetoric. Very self-satisfying.
Cheers
Mohammed