Tuesday, May 01, 2007

May Day, Mayday... in Arabia

Some Iraqi tribal elders in al Anbar are claiming this morning that the Emir of al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Ayoub al-Masri, has been killed. I will believe it when I see it in living color, or when the U.S military confirms it. Hold that reward money for now!

Looks like the days of Israeli PM Ehud Olmert are numbered in view of the Winograd Report on the Lebanon War last summer. Now, if he were the PM of an Arab country he could declare a 'state of emergency' and get off the hook easily. He could even postpone any further elections until after his death.
See? It pays to convert if you are a leader.

In Yemen, a mini-civil war has been raging for months now, with thousands reported killed. Now President-for-Life Ali Abdullah Saleh has hit on a possible source for this war: he has accused Libya and Iran of supporting and arming the 'rebels'. That should, incidentally, make the Saudis happy, since their two major foes are being implicated...but I am sure it is just a coincidence. President Saleh has not implicated Syria and North Korea, not yet, but things could get worse.

A Sudanese appeals court has reversed the execution by stoning of two women convicted of adultery. The women will be retried. Another court also reversed the sentence of a man whose hand was about to be cut off for stealing- just seconds before he lost his hand.
Since it normally takes two to commit adultery: what happened to the two men involved? It looks from recent experiences in Sudan, Nigeria, UAE, and especially the repeat offender Pakistan, that the penetrators get away free, and only the penetrated get punished and thus get the proverbial shaft as well.


Cheers
Mohammed

Saturday, April 28, 2007

al-Qaeda, Big King Abdullah and Little King Abdul

April 28, 2007
Saudi Arabia has uncovered a major plot and arrested 173 al-Qaeda members, almost al of them Saudis, and taken a huge cache of weapons and cash. The men were apparently arrested over a period of time. Last month Saudi authorities claimed to have arrested 16-17 terrorists, but later it turned out that most of them were merely reformists who had petitioned the ruling family for political freedoms. Most of those earlier charges were trumped up, according to Western media (e.g. The Economist).
This time, it looks like most of those arrested are genuine al-Qaeda terrorists although, if past experience is any indicator, it is possible the authorities may have taken the opportunity to throw in a few of their political critics as well.

There is an Arab saying :”If you have no shame, then do what ever you wish.”
Which brings us to a statement by the Saudi Interior Minister (Police and Security), Prince Nayef, regarding the thwarted plot. The prince expressed ‘regret’ about the failure of some neighboring countries, especially ‘Iraq’ which he singled out, to fully cooperate in security measures. Apparently some of those arrested Saudis had returned from Iraq, where many of them are being trained now in Sunni bastions like Al-Anbar province.

Now the question is: why couldn’t the Prince do his job and keep those from going to Iraq in the first place? And does that not indicate a Saudi failure to fully cooperate in Iraq’s security? And why was it easy for them to return, by crossing the border, again, to a country that is under tight security control, one that is effectively a tribal theocratic police state? And where did all that money, undoubtedly the tip of an iceberg, come from?

Media report that King Abdullah (Big Abdullah of Saudia Arabia, not Little Abdul of Jordan) has banned Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki from entering his country. Arab media report that Abdullah is upset because Maliki’s policies are anti-Sunni. No report yet whether al-Maliki is upset because Saudi policy has been discriminatory and anti-Shi’a for decades.

Speaking of terrorists crossing borders and cross-dressing, a suicide bomber today killed and wounded well over 200 in the Shi’a shrine city of Karbala. It is almost certain that all those killed and maimed were Shi’as. Perhaps Maliki should bar Saudi princes from visiting his country as well??
Now the question is: where the hell will Maliki go for a good time on his next vacation??
Cheers
Mohmmed

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Gulf War Preparations: A Piss-Up in a Brewery?

The GCC Gulf states are preparing for war these days. No, not a war of their own- the whole GCC brass could not organize a military piss-up in a brewery, as one U.S commander in the Gulf once succinctly noted, in spite of the tens of billions on arms expenditure and the attendant fat commissions paid to the local potentates. Which point leads us on its own logical path: if all the high-tech military purchases cannot prepare us for self defense, then, logically, could it be that the reason for these amazing purchases is to generate high commissions for some potentates?
They prepare for what many regard as an imminent American-Iranian war, some consider it a done-deal, a few even wish for it, not that they are queueing up to volunteer. Recent political discourse in the United States makes war seem like a far-fetched eventuality.

At a special conference on Maritime Security in the Gulf, the Director of Maritime Ports in Bahrain, a Shaikh Du'aij Bin Salman Al-Khalifa (of course), called for cooperation to protect navigation in the Gulf and prevent 'illegal activity'.

In Bahrain also, Minister of Interior (police & security) Shailh Rashid Abdullah Al-Khalifa (of course) called for more cooperation among states in the region in protecting navigation.

Bahrain's king Hamad Bin Issa Al-Khalifa (of course) warned those of his citizens who are 'swayed by trouble-makers' not to 'mess up their own security and interests'. The King called on them to join 'the march of modernization and construction' and urged them to 'join national work toward a brighter future' (I must say the last one sounds like something out of Chairman Mao's Little Red Book or perhaps Colonel Qaddafi's (Qaddafi) Little Green Book- who writes these guys' speeches? Some retired Chinese apparatchik? Of course, it could be a forcibly retired Iraqi Ba'athist).

Meanwhile, the U.S naval base in Bahrain is starting a joint maneuver for meeting 'emergency' situations.

Iraq- Time to 'Cut and Run' and Let Them Settle it:
Nine U.S soldiers died in Diyala province yesterday, killed by a suicide bomber that also wounded twenty others. At least 51 Iraqis died in various bombings. The sad fact is that not many Iraqi Arabs feel grateful that these young Americans died to pacify their country. The Kurds are the only Iraqis who are deeply grateful for their liberation from dictatorship and ethnic oppression, and they have made the most of it. In the wider Arab World outside Iraq, including the moderate states, well....the less said the better....

The 'Baghdad Wall' is opposed by almost everyone in Iraq, and it is not clear who in the U.S military command supports it. Around the Arab World, there is strong opposition to it, the exception being a few newspapers in the Gulf.

Iran- Interesting Questions:
Is Iran really on the verge of going nuclear? Are the mullahs and Ahmadinejad doing a Saddam-style campaign of disinformation? Are they being mislead by their own scientists? There is no doubt that they want it, but are they really that close to it?
Cheers
Mohammed

Monday, April 23, 2007

An NBC defense correspondent this morning on MSNBC: "Sectarian killings (in Baghdad) have been reduced. But (the surge) has not reduced terrorist bombings". And I thought these terror bombings were what started the whole 'sectarian' conflict, because they have always targeted Shi'a districts. For example, I have never heard of a terrorist bombing against a non-Shi'a mosque.
Well, eventually the Salafi jihadist fuzzywuzzies will get to the Christian churches, once they have some time off from slaughtering Shi'as and evading American forces. It would be a shame, because these ancient communities have their roots in the early Nestorian chuches that migrated eastward to Mesopotamia and Persia escape persecution.
The predecessors of the Salafis, the pan-Arab nationalists, drove out the Jews of Iraq, who had roots in the country even deeper than many Arab Ba'athists, including Saddam Hussein. It was a great loss to the country, and a gain for Israel.
If the Christians are forced by the jihadist fuzzywuzzies to leave as well.....then Iraq will become a greener, poorer version of her big neighbor to the southwest.
Cheers
Mohammed

Saturday, April 21, 2007

Pakistani Nuclear Humor, Nuclear Deproliferation a la John McCain

Pakistan's military ruler General Musharraf offered to act as a mediator between Israel and the Arabs. He offered to act as a non-partisan neutral mediator. An admirable offer.....but his country is hardly neutral: the Jihadists still burn the Israeli flag almost daily around Pakistan. Wouldn't the powerful Governor of Waziristan, one Osama Bin Laden, object? Shouldn't he secure his own main cities- Karachi, Islamabad, Peshawar, etc -before embarking on shuttle diplomacy?

Genral Musharraf also stated that Iranian enrichment of Uraniuam represents a danger to the Gulf region. He said that Iran has the right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, but that it would be wrong to be used for nuclear weapons. Ok, he is right on the last one, there should be no new nuclear weapons in the Middle East or anywhere else.....but what about Pakistan, which just recently announced testing a longer-range nuclear warhead?
This from the leader of a country that for years was the main seller and spreader of nuclear technology to the third and fourth worlds (remember A Q Khan whom the Pakistan government commended?).
At least he did not sing it to a Beach Boys tune a la McCain, but maybe that is because he is not running in a primary in South Carolina.
Cheers
Mohammed
Gulf Financial Markets, Promising Kurdistan, Iraqis Mourn as the Surge….Surges:

The Saudi market continued to decline Saturday, with the Index reaching the 7307 level. Most local analysts seemed baffled that the market has been declining for some time, even though they perceive the Saudi economy as being strong (at least in terms of the oil sector and its revenues). Some have called for encouraging entry of investors from other ‘Persian’ Gulf countries as a way to shore up demand. This is not likely to be the hoped for panacea for the Saudi market. Big Gulf investors usually seek to diversify their risks by going to international markets, since regional markets are similar and exposed to the same risks associated with the oil markets and public revenues, especially now that the exchange rates are more closely coordinated.

A Saudi financial columnist wrote in the daily Al-Riyadh that the trading day is too long (4 ½ hours compared with the NYSE’s 6 ½ hours of regular trading and the extra-curricular electronic trading) and may be one cause of the recent market decline. He argues that the long trading session keeps shares from closing at the high levels they reach during the day. I guess he means that it gives investors a chance to have second thoughts and perhaps experience what is called “buyers’ remorse” in the United States. What would they do if they ever have after-hours and pre-hours electronic trading?

Meanwhile, the Kuwaiti market has been performing quite differently, and the Index reached its highest level in a year (10,634.9) on Saturday. The value of trading reached a historic level at the end of last week, and market authorities were incredulous enough to start an investigation.

Iraqi Kurdistan has been advertising aggressively for investments in Arab media, including electronic media. They call it “Kurdistan, You Gateway to Iraq”. So, leaving politics aside, the Kurds may have at least one good reason to remain within Iraq. The dismal way things are in most Arab countries and Iran, Kurdistan may be able to provide the only reliable safe haven for investments and tourism. Neither the Jihadist fuzzywuzzies nor the Ba’athists have been able to infiltrate the Kurdish region. The one potential sources of future trouble is the ultra-nationalistic Turkish military....and the Kurdish guerrillas tormenting them.

Arab governments sent condolences to the regimes in Algeria and Morocco for the deaths caused by Islamic terror bombings (the total death toll was less than thirty, nothing to write home about by Jihadist standards). Alfayhaa Television noted bitterly that none of these governments expressed sorrow or sent condolences to the Iraqis for the terror bombings that killed over 500 in only one week. Alfayhaa wondered if that was because almost all the Iraqi victims were Shi’as.
Cheers
Mohammed

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Zeitgeist and Groveling on the Gulf, Saudis Help With Iraq's Debt

Groveling Media Comments:
The following a summary of a front page editorial yesterday by the owner and chief editor of alseyassah , an extreme right-wing Kuwaiti daily.

(Warning to the unwary reader: get a sick (barf) bag, or a large bucket before reading)

“It is worthy to stop and think in view of the speech by the Custodian of the Two Holy Shrines King Abdullah last Saturday. The political and moral implications of the speech evolved about the clear values of ruling and the task of the ruler. He addressed Saudi citizens at first and admitted that they have a right that he strike with justice, on their behalf, at injustice, and stressed the importance of fighting terrorism in all its forms, and of destroying all destructive and deviate ideas….
“The Arab World is facing a serious Saudi Marja’iyya (i.e higher religious authority, a la the ayatollahs) that is capable of resolving all unfinished bilateral or regional issues. The Arab World now has a leadership with this level of responsibility, full of the values of rule, and connected to the history of the prominent men of this nation and their deeds.....
“All eyes have been raised to the Custodian of the Two Holy Shrines, ever since he was the number two man in the Kingdom, and his ideas were made clear, and they are now the policy being applied.
“Now we have started to see, in this leadership, how its Arabic and Islamic Marja’iyya is being activated in pushing forward solutions for unsolved issues (solved issues do not need solutions).
“Now all can see the value of the recent moves of the Saudi Kingdom in Palestine, in Lebanon, in Iraq, and in Darfur…etc. Nobody and nothing could achieve such progress but the anchor, the rule of King Abdullah, whose delicate fingers move only toward playing the symphony of peace.
“We in the Gulf shall see and hear a different tune now that the man has taken upon himself to do what he does superbly. He is seeking to create a Saudi society that fears neither the bright lights of the age (zeitgeist?) nor democracies (not even in Iraq or at home?)….etc, etc, etc ad nauseatingum........”

Another columnist, Ahmad Al-Rube’i, wrote in the Saudi daily asharqalawsat :
“The Crisis of Credibility:
“One of the attributes of King Abdullah, one that distinguishes him from many other leaders, is that he says with his tongue what he believes in his heart. Many observers were surprised that his speech on Saturday was frank and clear, and called things as they are, when he talked of sectarian (Sunni vs. Shi’a) tensions. He said clearly that fanning the flames of sectarianism among Sunnis and Shi’as in the Saudi Kingdom is against the teachings of Islam. (This is news: there is no open sectarian conflict in Saudi Arabia, mainly because any open political dissent will be crushed ruthlessly, like in most Middle Eastern countries)….Our main problem is that ‘some’ of our leaders say something the do not mean, while doing the opposite…...
“What deserves our attention in King Abdullah’e comments is the ceredibility. All leaders who have dealt with him know that what he says with his tongue (no less) is what he believes in his heart. Oh, if only such behavior was the rule and schizophrenia the exception….if that were so, we would not be where we tragically are. (Schizophrenia is the favorite term used nowadays by Saudi press to refer to Libya’s admittedly odd dictator Colonel Qadddafi. True, I wouldn’t share a room with him at college, but what Arab leader is not schizophrenic).

There have been many other examples of such drivel in the Gulf and Saudi media lately. I doubt that wise old King Abdullah himself is behind them- yet, I can almost see a set of strings being pulled by someone.

On the other hand there is some good news, also created by Saudi Arabia. In a positive move that could set a precedent among Iraq’s rich Arab neighbors, Saudi Arabia has agreed to forgive 80% of Iraq’s debt to its government. Total foreign debt and reparations owed by Iraq from the 1990-91 Persian Gulf War and the Iran-Iraq War(1980-1988) could amount to nearly $400 billion, an amount Iraq could never completely pay- nobody has found a way to squeeze blood out of dry rock yet. At the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, Iraq owed foreigners nearly $100 billion. If the report is true, it will be one small step in putting the Iraqi ‘state’, such as it is, on the road to long term economic survival.
Cheers
Mohammed

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Virginia Tech and Arab Universities
Arab media gave the killings at Virginia Tech top coverage. It was the next top item of newspaper front pages, after the usual daily dosage of the noble and magnanimous activities of Presidents-for-Life, Monarchs, and their potentates. Even television stations gave it some extended coverage, after the usual daily film clips of Presidents-for-Life, and Monarchs shaking hands, making the correct noises, promising utopia, and kissing each others’ cheeks (no, not THOSE!).

Interesting how some in the United States, mostly media types in need of substance to fill the long minutes on the air, have been talking about college lock-downs. You might as well lock down a whole town like Intercourse (PA), or Hooker (Arkansas). And yes, they do exist. I won’t even mention LLANFAIRWLLGWYNGLLGOGERYYCHWYRNDROBWILLLLANTYSILIOGOGOGOCH (Wales), or Had El-Hmara (The Donkey’s........) somewhere in the (Persian) Gulf region. By the way, the famous Sharm El-Sheikh (Egypt) means the Sheikh’s ‘sharm’. I’ll let you know someday what ‘sharm’ means, and you probably don’t have to be over 18 either.

Universities and Colleges in the Middle East, the ones I’ve seen, are perfectly equipped for lock-downs. They are usually fenced within high walls, with a few iron gates for access. These gates can, and often are, shut and locked. After hours, the campus, such as it is, is locked down. Fraternization with society at large is not only frowned upon, it is actively discouraged. I recall the time when I taught some courses at a university in the Gulf area, how the guard outside the gate peered at me as I approached, before swinging the gate open slowly, grudgingly. At another campus, which used to be my old high school before being upgraded to a college, the guard would always ask me what my business was before letting me in. So, no fraternization.

These walls and gates are not there to prevent criminals from the outside from entering and committing crimes on campus. They are there to prevent potential (political) criminals, the students, from spilling out and expressing themselves loudly. Any massacre a la Virginia Tech will happen if and when the students spill out in large groups (there are laws in most Arab states regulating mass public gatherings of more than 10 or so people, and some states even regulate private gatherings but I understand that it doesn't apply to polygamy).
I suspect the story is the same all across the Arab parts of the Middle East and Iran: keep them fenced in and keep everybody else fenced out.
Cheers
Mohammed

Monday, April 16, 2007

Muqtada and Democrats, Al Qaeda Waxing, Bahrain Waning
Arab media report that Sadrists ministers will withdraw, for now, from the Iraqi cabinet, in protest over the refusal of the Prime Minister al-Maliki to support a timetable for withdrawal of U. S forces from Iraq. Muqtada al-Sadr himself publicly condemned al-Maliki’s refusal. It is not clear if Muqtada prefers the Murtha plan (isn’t that also the Pelosi plan?), the Hillary plan (whatever it is), or the Kucinich plan (I assume there is one). Still, he can’t hate the Republican plan (isn’t that the one about creative chaos?) all that much: it has brought him so close to being the king-maker.
•
Rivalry is intensifying among various factions for the hearts and minds of Iraq’s Sunni Arab minority. One thing is certain: the Americans and the ruling Shi’a-Kurdish coalition are not in contention- they will never win the Sunnis’ hearts and minds. The battle is among Ba’athists, moderate Islamists, more extremist Islamists, and al-Qaeda. Underlying all this are strong tribal forces among the Sunni tribes of Western Iraq. It is not clear who will emerge on top, perhaps no one; most likely some kind of a coalition of all of the above.
Meanwhile, the car bombings are becoming more selective, aiming for more strategic and more sensitive targets. Like the Parliament building (and how did they get deep inside? Who let them in??). And an important bridge that kept parts of Baghdad joined.
•
Looks like North Africa is the newest battleground for al-Qaeda and her Salafi allies. Bombings in Algeria and Morocco have intensified in recent weeks. Algerians are known as a drab and harsh people, but easy-going Moroccans are getting into the act now. Algeria went through some years of a violent and particularly gruesome civil war after the ruling military-FLN regime annulled the results of elections the Islamists won, and canceled planned elections, in the early 1990s.
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Some Arab media report that the former FBI agent who disappeared in Iran several weeks ago is being held by Iranian authorities. The reports claim that this is part of a series of planned reprisals for Iranian operatives being snatched in Iraq and Europe. Perhaps it is a good idea to heed State Department travel advisories and warnings, just these days.
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Saudi media report that a high Saudi security official, with the rank of General, no less, was found killed in a ‘gruesome way’. The media compared the method of his killing to that of American hostage Paul Johnson, who was butchered by al-Qaeda operatives in Saudi Arabia in 2004. This would be the first time that the Saudi al Qaeda has resorted to these methods against a Saudi citizen.....but then he is a 'General'.
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Saudi King Abdullah announced that henceforth he will not tolerate injustice and oppression. He also railed against sectarian divisions in his country and across the Arab World. All admirable thoughts, but there was no mention of corruption. Dommage.
•
In Bahrain, thousands demonstrated last week against what they claimed is a government policy to change the country’s demographics, by illegally naturalizing outsiders, presumably Sunnis, from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Bahrain’s population is estimated to be about 75% Shi’as. This has become a point of contention in recent months, although the government has denied the story, which probably means that there is some truth in it. Already, Bahrain has a strong Salafi movement (soul mates of al Qaeda), something unheard of in the past. So far, the Salafis have concentrated on their Shi’a rivals, whom they consider the ‘main enemy’ and target………for now.
Bahrain, once the 'Havana' of the Persian Gulf, has recently imposed restrictions on public entertainment, pushing more hotels and businesses to move to Dubai. It is moving now much closer to Kuwait in terms of restrictions on public entertainment and 'fun', and fast closing in on world record-holder Riyadh, where there really is 'no there'....there.
Cheers
Mohammed

Saturday, April 07, 2007

Saudi Arabian Interior Minister Prince Nayef (psssst: all interior ministers in the Gulf are princes, because only they can keep law and order) announced that his country has asked Iran to return several Saudis accused or ‘terrorism’ who are in Iran. It is not clear if these Saudis are being held in detention in Iran, but this is most likely. Reports have noted in the past that one of Bin Laden’s sons may be under house arrest in Iran. There have been sporadic reports of Iran holding or hosting Al- Qaeda operatives who had escaped from Afghanistan. Can this be used as another casus belli?
In late 2001 Iran, under a saner president, cooperated with the American invasion of Afghanistan to topple their Taliban enemies- the cooperation stopped a couple of months later, after President Bush gave a speech joining Iran with Ba'athist Iraq and the Dear Leader's North Korea in the Axis os Evil. That was before Ahmadinejad was elected.

In a strange incident, media report that Iranian officials refused yesterday to allow the airplane carrying Iraqi P.M. Nouri al-Maliki from flying over their airspace on the way to Tokyo, because the pilot did not have prior permission to overfly. Unless this was a case of low-level blunder, it may indicate a cooling of relations between Tehran and Baghdad.

Extremist media in the Gulf quote 'Iranian Opposition' groups that Iran has 'inundated' the Persian Gulf states with spies and agents. Great....just what the Shi'a minorities in these paranoid states needed at this time.

Miscellaneous:
A Tunisian study indicates that more than 40% of all men who are under forty years of age in that North African Arab country suffer from sexual impotence. The percentage of impotence reaches 60% for those 50 years or older. The study attributes a quarter of divorce cases to that (probably more). The causes listed are a mix of physical and psychological. Tunisia does not allow the sale of ‘potency-enhancing' drugs, or what are called ED drugs. Does this mean the population of Tunisia is declining?

Cheers
Mohammed

Friday, April 06, 2007

Qadhafi Declares Shi’a Empire, Demotes Saudi King, Draws Fire

Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Qadhafi (Gaddafi) has done it again. He gave his usual rambling long speech at a North African/Saharan meeting last week. He presented certain ideas and made proposals that were sure to rile up the Arab establishment, especially its new leadership, the Saudis. And they did:

He called for the establishment of a Second Fatimid Empire. The Fatimids were the Shi’a dynasty that ruled from Cairo and controlled much of North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean for over 200 years. They also established the city of Cairo.

He reminded everyone that the Al-Azhar Mosque and its University, now a center of Sunni theology, were established under the Fatimid Shi’as in the 10th century.

He criticized those who have done their best to raze the tombs of the Prophet Mohammed and his Sahaba early followers (in Madina, Saudi Arabia). He also referred to the efforts to obliterate historic Islamic sites in Arabia, a favorite pastime of Wahhabi extremists who consider all such monuments as heretical relics.

He said that the Two Holy Shrines are not all in Saudi Arabia: one of them is in Mecca, but the other is in Jerusalem. (In this case, someone’s title will have to be changed to "Custodian of the Single Shrine", with a demoted job description.......guess whose?).

His Proposals go against the sectarian campaign being waged in some Arab states to emphasize differences between Shi’as (Shiites) and Sunnis, and to paint the former as a suspect source of subversion and danger.

The reaction has been swift. The awesome Saudi media conglomerates, with their network of television stations and newspapers across the Arab World and in Europe (Alhayat, Asharq Alawsat, etc) have been on the offensive ever since. As have some of their allies in the Gulf states. The Colonel is daily demonized (for the wrong reason), and some religios shaikhs have been recruited to issue opinions calling his ideas ‘heretical’. Professors and academicians have also been recruited to expound on the Colonel's doubtful sanity- one academician/journalist asserted he was suffering from Schizophrenia...and he even managed to spell it right.

One thing is certain about Qadhafi: whatever you think of his often unorthodox ideas, his weird brand of dictatorship, and his deadly past, he is never boring. He would have livened up the last Arab summit in Riyadh, and made it more interesting than what it was: a meeting of mostly nondescript despots.
Cheers
Mohammed

Monday, April 02, 2007

Controversy in Kuwait: The Dichotomy of the Salafi Hair Obsession.

In Kuwait, Islamists tried yesterday to force a new female cabinet minister to wear the hijab, the headcover that is a mark of piety for some. The minister refused to wear the hijab during the swearing-in ceremony at the Assembly. Normally they would have called for her to wear a burqa'a or niqab, the Zorro-style mask that women wear in Saudi Arabia and is favored by the Arab Salafis and their Afghan Taliban drinking buddies. As it turned out, they could not manage forcing even a paltry hijab on the tough lady.
•
It is strange how the Fundies of the Arab World are publicly obsessed with a woman's public hair, and how secretly they are even more obsessed with a woman's not-so-public hair, but in a different way. This is a dichotomy that I could never understand- perhaps it has to do with a certain kind of repression which leads to a certain kind of frustration? Or perhaps they need to work out more- don't they still have Fundie boot camps somewhere (no, not necessarily the Afghan or Pakistani variety)? Maybe they should even walk to work instead of driving- I have noticed that many of them are sort of obese. Eating too much sweets and thinking of women's hair, all of it, the whole time is bound to make you fat.
•
In any case, the Fundies are obsessed with women, and they spend much of their time trying very hard not to think of a woman's hair, all of it. They try to enact laws that deal exclusively with women and their appearance, especially the hair. Now it would be interesting if a law is passed forcing them to cover their shaggy beards, or in some cases their unfriendly visages. Often they call a woman's face and hair as ‘'aura’, an Arab term meaning something that is taboo and should be hidden and not seen in public- sort of like a person's private parts. I think many of their silly faces should be declared ‘'aura’.
•
There are many serious problems that can benefit from releasing some of the energy of these Fundies’ frustrations: for example, the quality of health care in a country that spends a fortune on health, but all high public officials and important private dignitaries, rich ones, are sent overseas for medical treatment at government expense.
Cheers
Mohammed

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Gulf Inflation, Iran in a Corner

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A study by an associate professor in Economics at a Saudi university has warned of the possible disappearance of the Saudi ‘middle class’, and the increase in poverty. The study attributes the trend to continued high inflation which seems uncontrollable and its impact on living conditions and on society in general. It claims that the endangered middle class represents 90% of Saudi society, an assertion which I strongly doubt, for everyone who lives in a country is part of its society at least in an economic sense, be he a native or an expatriate. This unchecked hyper-inflation, the study warns, will lead to higher unemployment and increased crime. The study partly attributes the trend in higher inflation to the system of ‘exclusive agencies’ that dominates the Saudi import sector. It notes that Saudi membership in WTO ‘might’ require dismantling this monopolistic system of trade.
In fact, in all the Gulf oil states, because of a system of dealerships for imported goods, prices are upward-biased. Increased oil revenues are automatically reflected in higher prices for consumer goods, both luxury items and staples. There is a normal economic reason for an inflow of foreign exchange to push domestic prices up through its impact on liquidity, unless this is sterilized by the monetary authorities. In the Gulf, the foreign exchange surplus (oil income) flows to the public sector, which then pumps it into the private sector through the budgetary process. Apparently the mechanism is speeded up by merchants, presumably monopolistic importers, who anticipate increased public expenditures by the state that controls oil income. Hence prices are raised automatically because of the lack of competition.
•
Looks like the regime in Iran is stuck with a new crisis it cannot handle. Regardless of where the British sailors were when taken, whether inside Iraq or inside Iran- the exact location is still debatable- the wise course would have been to release them quickly. It is not likely that the Americans, for example, will release any Iranians they have in Iraq or elsewhere, before they are ready, in exchange for these hapless sailor/soldiers.
Saudi media report that King Abdullah had warned Iranian President Ahmadinejad of underestimating American resolve and the dangers to his country. This is very likely true.
On the other hand, Syrian media, all government-controlled, seem surprisingly pleased with the results of the Riyadh Summit. They must know something we don’t.
Cheers
Mohammed

Friday, March 30, 2007

Saudi King Abdullah vs. Bush: Blame Colonel Qadhafi

When Saudi King Abdullah said that Iraq was under 'illegitimate foreign occupation' he was merely protecting his own royal......flank.

Arab opinion, often ignored in the state-controlled media, had noted that Secretary of State Rice met with Arab ministers on the eve of the Summit. Hence, Libyan Colonel Qadhafi's accusation that the agenda for the Riyadh summit was prepared in Washington resonated with much of public opinion. The Saudis had to show that "it ain't so", that they are independent and do not take their marching orders from anyone: least of all a kaffir (that means infidel to you infidels), albeit a powerful one that keeps the menacing mullahs across the Persian Gulf at bay.
Besides, is there such a thing as a 'legitimate' foreign occupation?????
Cheers

Mohammed

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Disappointment in Riyadh: The Camel And the Mouse

“The camel went into labor, and gave birth to a mouse”
This is a very popular Arab saying.

The Arab Summit in Riyadh is over. It was no different from any other Summit of the past twenty some years. What is more, Iraq downgraded it by sending its amiable but ceremonial president instead of the policy-making prime minister. Qadhafi of Libya did not show up, thus robbing it of any possible offbeat path, any diversion from the usual caca de boca.

Looking through the Arab media of various countries, each medium (usually state-owned, state-controlled, state-paid, or state-bullied) claimed that its own leader was pivotal in the success of the summit in achieving nothing. Normally these summits achieve nothing quite effortlessly, but this time they had to work for it.

One solid result was that the Saudi Stock Market Index lost all its gains of the past year on the same day that the Summit adjourned.
Cheers
Mohammed

Arab Media in the Persian Gulf: Hold the Sick Bag

This is a partial translation of an editorial in the conservative Kuwait daily Alseyassah. It was authored by the newspaper’s owner, a Mr. Ahmad Aljarallah. All phrases and words italicized and bracketed are my own.
Warning to the reader: You may need a barf (sick) bag or a bucket (pail) while reading this.
Here goes:
"The Riyadh Summit is An Arab Sunni Summit
BY: Ahmad AlJarallah
“This is not just an Arab Summit, it is a summit of the Custodian of the Two Holy Shrines, King Abdullah who had wanted it to be a Mass (no not the Catholic variety) Sunni Arab Summit, with the full meaning of the term, to put a limit to those who have tried to prove and assert their existence as a minority, through turmoil, fear, and sectarian slaughter as we see today in Iraq, and perhaps in Lebanon and Palestine.

“The Riyadh Summit had to be a Summit of King Abdullah, in the sense and meaning that the Custodian of the Two Holy Shrines deserves, in the sense of being the Sunni Islamic Majority's Marja’iyya (Marja’iyya is a center of religious reference and arbitration in the Shi’a, or Shiites to most of you infidels, faith), and pivotal decision-making (decider?) center of the Sunni majority in the Arab and Islamic Worlds.

“This Sunni deployment of this mass summit has led Iran to relent and ease tensions, and hint at release of a female British soldier. We can be bold and say that now the sectarian issues will be resolved, for it is not in the interests of Iran and the sectarian minority (i.e the Shi’as) that supports it to continue in their open hostility to the Sunni majority and their escalation against the West (i.e: if you don't behave we will sic our friends in the West on you).

“A Sunni Islamic Marja’iyya (he means Saudi King Abdullah) to whom all Arabs and Moslems will refer and defer will put an end to sectarianism…...for there will be no chance for the rise of sectarian tensions in Eastern Saudi Arabia (where most Shi’as live and are oppressed) or Bahrain (majority 70- 75% Shi’as) and the rest of the Gulf, unlike what happened in Iraq and Lebanon…

“The Riyadh Summit was held to edify this Sunni Marja’iyya and make the Kingdom the Supreme Force in the Islamic and Arab World. A Sunni Marja’iyya is needed to counter what others, those influenced by Safawis and Shu’aubis and their claims about the historical events related to the household of the Prophet. (Safawis were a Persian dynasty that fought over Iraq against the Ottoman Turks. Shuaubi is a derogatory Arab term used against all non-Arab and non-Sunni minorities who aspire for more, and especially against oppressed majorities as in ante-bellum Iraq. These were favorite terms used by Iraq’s Ba’athists when they were in power, and they made them popular among pan-Arab nationalists in the Persian Gulf monarchies. They have been revived in the Saudi-financed Arab media in the Gulf region. They have been used in Nazi Goebbelsian fashion in the past and again these days).

“His majesty the Custodian of the Two Holy Shrines has had his own visions of these issues for a long time, and he has acted now before it is too late.”
And more of such grovelling nonesense.....

(In other words: he is calling, and not too shyly, for installing the Saudi King as the equivalent of a Moslem Pope, the match and equivalent of any Shi'a Grand Ayatollh, but with much much more money to.....persuade his flock with. But he is not waiting for him to be officially anointed before kissing his un-anointed temporal royal....er.....hand(?))
Cheers
Mohammed

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

An Arab April Fools' Wish: The Summit and the Trough

The Arab Summit of Kings, Shaikhs, Presidents and Demi-Gods has Resolved:
•
Term-Limit Rule: A leader's term in office shall be limited to eight years, no matter how essential, indispensible or popular his media, his wives, and his sycophants tell him that he is. After April Fools' Day of 2008, every Arab leader who has served 8 years or more will resign, after making sure that an electoral system is in place under the supervision of the United Nations, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, PETA, and Jimmy Carter.
•
Hereditary Rule: No son, daughter, brother, or wife (or wives) of an Arab leader shall be allowed to succeed him in office, until after one full term has passed since his departure from office or his demise (which heretofore has been the same thing). That succession shall be only after elections supervised by the above organizations and Jimmy Carter.
•
Anti-Incest Rule: An Arab head of state, head of government, head of foam, or just bubble-head, shall refrain from appointing any of his immediate relatives as minister in the government or cabinet he heads- the minimum penalty for defiance of his rule shall be the withholding of black hair dye, without which no Arab leader seems able to function improperly. This punishment can be ratcheted up, starting with with denial of ED medications- and that should keep the culprit from functioning properly or improperly.
•
The convened leaders and potentates shall not mention Thomas L. Friedman in conjunction with this summit and its resolution on the Palestinian-Israeli issue.
•
The Summiteers resolve never to repeat the term "One Arab nation, with an Eternal Message", not even if they are joking royal princes. Should it be inadvertently repeated, this will have nothing to do with the good old days of Ba'athism, genocide, and Kurdicide.
•
Optima are relative, not necessarily mathematical, phenomena: We resolve in our collective wisdom that while this is not the maximum of all minima, it is not the absolute minimum of all maxima either.
Beaux Reves and Cheers
Mohammed

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

The Arab World: Shame in Egypt, Humor in Bahrain, Confusion in Lebanon, Organized Chaos in Iran.

The Justice Minister of Egypt, who also heads a body called the Supreme Election Committee, has declared that 75.9% of Egypt’s voters have approved constitutional changes proposed by the ruling party of President Mubarak. He said about 27% of eligible voters participated. This is quite a feat, IF true, considering that the voters were given one week after the parliament rubber-stamped the changes. Egypt’s main opposition groups rejected the results of the referendum, calling it a sham marred with irregularities, to say the least. Where were you Jimmy Carter when the Egyptians needed you??

In another joke of the week, the Bahrain parliament, half-appointed by the King, has approved a new anti-corruption law. It requires exposure of the financial positions of people (only some people), presumably high officials (but not too high, eh?). It is called: the “Where Did You Get It” Law, honestly. Parliament approved the measure in five minutes....wow, what would Senators Reid, McConnell et al say to that? The laws punishes anyone who realizes illicit gains, presumably from some public position, with 5 years of prison. This will most likely not affect very high officials, who are of course always very honest, all across the Gulf. Otherwise, who will run things for 5 years?

Libya is boycotting the Arab Summit this week in Riyadh. Colonel Qadhafi said today that the agenda for the summit was set in Washington.

Iraq will be represented at the summit by its President Talibani and Foreign Minister Zibari. Since the Prime Minister makes policy in Iraq, this is sort of downgrading of the summit by the Iraqis, who know that it is a waste of their time.

Lebanon is sending two rival delegates to the summit: one headed by the (Christian) President Lahoud, who is allied with Hizbullah and the Shi’a (Shiite) opposition, the other is headed by the Prime Minister Saniora, who is allied with the Hariris (Sunni) and Jumblatt (Druze). This neatly reflects the almost de facto division of Lebanon into two camps and the paralysis of political life.

Iran’s Ahmadinejad did not attend the last U.N Security Council meeting. That probably robbed the occasion of its only possible source of excitement. But then again, it saved the delegates from having to listen to another long-winded speech. I still haven’t figured out who is doing what in Iran these day.....it seems that it is in a state of organized chaos. Organized but not creative.
Cheers
Mohammed

The Arab Summit and the Mafia: Godfather IV

It looks like the Arab summit this week, in Riyadh, will come short as it aspires to tackle issues ranging from Palestine, to Lebanon, Iraq, and inter-Arab trade (yes, there is some trade). Everyone is eager for it to bring back the glories of past Arab summits.....those were glorious only in their rhetoric.
The last such glorious Arab summit was in Baghdad in the spring of 1990, hosted, led and bullied by Saddam Hussein, only weeks before he swept across Kuwait and stood a few meters from Khafji. After that, Arab leaders gave up all pretenses to statesmanship, friendship, and brotherhood: it took Papa George (H.W, that is) and Mama Maggie (of the stout handbag fame) to stiffen the despotic spines. They proved, these Arab leaders, at that time, that on their own they could not organize an orgy in a brothel.

Not much has changed: it might take Tovarischa Condoleezza (of piano fame) to get some firm resolution on the Palestinian-Israeli issue. And she has been trying. The view on the Arab street, for all its worth, is that she has been coaching the Four (it should be the 5=4+1) in last-minute meetings with their foreign ministers, on how the summit should go.

As for Lebanon.....I don't think so: the President, the Speaker of the Parliament, Hizbullah, and their allies aren't playing the game by the rules envisioned by most Arab leaders. So the mess in that beautiful but unfortunate country will continue with the standoff between the allies and proxies of two generous regional oil states, one ruled by a Shi'a (Shiite) fundamentalist regime and the other ruled by a Sunni fundamentalist-absolute-monarchy-tribal regime.

As for Iraq; fohgettaboutit. Arab countries are still collecting Iraqi reparations through the UN for the 1990-91 war: that includes many Arab countries, including those that, like Jordan, sided with Saddam. Besides, governments calling for political changes in Iraq is similar to calling for political changes in, say, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain or Jordan: it is called interfernce in the internal affairs of a sovereign country, with the unsavory, in some cases quite savory, intention of installing a like-minded regime.

So, it will be back to Palestine-Israel: and that cannot be seriously solved without a clear resolution of two issues, the pre-1967 land and the status of the 1948 refugees (are any of them around?). Even if the Arabs adopt the old 2002 initiative (a.k.a Thomas Friedman-Saudi King Abdullah plan), it would not amount to a hill of beans without a clear resolution of these two issues. These two tough points will outlive a Hamas government.

The real achievement of this summit is that it will formalize the petro-dollar era: the Saudi monarchy will finally become the anointed acknowledged dominant Arab power. For the first time in modern history, one family will dominate the Arab World, backed by a vast, bought and paid for, media network of newspapers and satellite television stations. Unfortunately it won't be the Medici family, not even the Borgias. Which means that we are back to the stagnant era of pre-Gulf War and Pre-Iraq: R.I.P reform and democratic aspirations- we will shelve those until oil prices go down. Or until the Arab Barzinis, Tattaglias, and Moe Green decide to gang up on the new leaders. Then, eveyone will go to the mattress again, with Fat Clemenza.

Still, we will be nice and, like all the Arab media, we will call it a success: at least in terms of measured, wise, yet tough rhetoric. Very self-satisfying.
Cheers
Mohammed

Friday, March 23, 2007

Jordanian Inquisition, Egypt Frowns on Humor

(This item appeared earlier on my website)
Jordan and Shi'ism:
Saudi-owned Alarabiya TV reports (3/23) that Jordanian authorities have expelled 23 Iraqis from the country for "spreading Shi'ism". The report also claims that an investigation (a favorite Arab term for a serious interrogation where hands and fists are often used) has been conducted with six members of an Islamic movement "accused of 'Shi'ism". The six "confessed" to having received religious teachings from a Shi'ite activist.
The report claims that Jordanian authorities have called in several 'families' for interrogation, in order to find out about their "religious and political loyalties".
So far, there have been no reports of any burnings at the stake in Jordan, and there may never be.....since this was a purely European invention used mostly to counter the spread of heresy and the persistence of Judaism.

Egyptian Humor:
Egyptians are a humorous people, perhaps the only funny people in the whole Arab World, one that often uses self-deprecating humor to overcome life's hardships. Normally an Egyptian, any Egyptian, even Ayman al-Zawahiri or Husni Mubarak (I know the latter may be a stretch), has more humor than a basket of 21 Arabs representing all other Arab countries (to use an economic yardstick). Therefore it was sad to read this week that the Egyptian government has banned a lecture on "humor", merely because the lecturer belonged to an opposition group. Scartch Husni Mubarak from the list up there. Now most Arab authorities, especially the Jordanians (see the above item) will never have to cancel any such event, because there is no serious humor in most of these countries, at least none that we can take seriously.

So, both the freedom of religion and the freedom of humor are alive and well in the 'moderate' allied states of Egypt and Jordan. Now about Saudi Arabia, that other cornerstone of the axis of democracy and moderation in the New Middle East.......

Cheers
Mohammed
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