Saudis Threaten War- An Infidel Legion, But no Beau Geste

Saudis Threaten War:
A ranking advisor to the Saudi government has threatened, in an article in the Washington Post no less (Nov. 30), that his country might intervene in Iraq in the event of an American withdrawal. The author, a Mr. Nawaf Obaid, started by extolling the wisdom of Saudi royal officials, from King Abdullah, to the Prince Foreign Minister to Prince Turkey the Ambassador to Washington. He then stated abruptly that if the U.S withdraws from Iraq, then “the first consequence will be massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shiite militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis.” The ’Iranian-backed’ adjective was no doubt thrown in for the benefit of American readers. Then the article, clearly not up to the usual standards of The Post, reads like a propaganda piece in a local Saudi newspaper.
The author also claimed that Saudi Arabia can afford to increase oil supply greatly and strangle support for the militias. Yet a few years ago, partly because oil prices were low, the Saudi regime was considered in peril. It still is not out of trouble. He argues that the Kingdom ‘can cut oil prices in half’, and still finance its current spending, and presumably still be able to allow the thousands of royal princelings and other potentates to live in their accustomed style.
Perhaps the Saudis, when they intervene in Iraq, will make sure that they will have enough boots (or is it Najdi sandals?) on the ground. Perhaps upward of , oh say 350,00 to 400,000 troops, if such numbers can be rounded up. Or, perhaps they can do the usual and hire expatriates for such a dangerous mission: something that we can call 'The Infidel Legion'.
Whatever happened to the idea of a $12 billion security fence? Won't it hamper the Saudi blitzkrieg, no doubt led by another general or field marshall prince, across the desert into the Shi'a-infested southern Iraq?

Oops, AhmadiNejad Does it Again:
Iran's unique (?) president cannot seem to let well enough alone. Just as it looked like he might escape internationl censure and sanctions, the occasinally incoherent leader has sent another letter to the United States, advising changes in foreign policy. Mr. Nejad clearly believes that his earlier rantings against Israel have gained him support on the Arab street- so he has come back for more. That is the misfortune of those who have to listen to or read these lengthy statements.

Cheers
Mohammed

mhg6363@gmail.com

A Tentative Three-Pronged Peace Offensive in Iraq, Arab Leaders Fete a Terror Supporter

Iraq:
Iraq’s Arab neighbors have been gradually inching away from the elected but embattled regime in that country. Initially, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Persian Gulf states were going through the motion of recognition and diplomatic relations, mainly to satisfy the American protector, or aid-donor in some cases. Now, these governments, having smelled blood both in Iraq and at the U.S ballot box earlier this November, seem to be backtracking both on their professed move to democracy and in helping stabilize Iraq.
The clearest example came this past week, when several Arab states, including Persian Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan, received Shaikh Harith Al-Dhari, en extremist Sunni ‘cleric’ who leads what is called ‘The Association of Muslim Scholars’, a group that has refused to join the political process and supports ‘the resistance’ in Iraq, i.e. the random killing of civilian Iraqis and American soldiers by terrorists.

A few days ago the Secretary General of the Arab League, Mr. Amr Moussa, met in Cairo with Shaikh Al-Dhari, who is wanted by the Iraqi authorities for questioning. The Arab League never meets with political opponents of Arab regimes- it has never met with Saudi, Bahraini, Egyptian, or other Arab opposition groups. Yet it has elevated Shaikh Al-Dhari by granting him a publicized meeting. The King of Jordan met with Al-Dhari yesterday, then warned of 'civil wars' in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. Mamoun Fendi, an adviser reputed to be close to Saudi King Abdullah, also warned Monday of these same expected civil wars. Meanwhile, an editorial extolling the virtues of this shaikh has been making the rounds in the Gulf newspapers- another step toward rehabilitation.

Predictably, reactions in the Arab capitals to the carnage that slaughtered over 200 Shi’as in Sadr city were noticeably mute, but they picked up steam and noise after the uncontrollable Shi’a militias went on their own ill-advised rampage of vengeful sectarian attacks. Arab states rightly worry about the growing Iranian influence in Iraq, but this week, just as they have done for three years, they were silent about the terrorist-jihadist bombings in Baghdad. Perhaps sides are being selected in what some expect to be a decisive phase of Iraq’s ongoing civil non-war.

As Mr. Al-Maliki gets ready to meet President Bush in Amman (looks like it is on, for now), Iraq's president Talibani is heading to Iran Monday to discuss the same issues. Perhaps Vice President Cheney met with Saudi leaders last week to discuss the very same issues. So, Mr. Talibani (the Kurd) will be the messenger between Iran and the US, Mr. Al-Maliki (the Shi'a) will play the same role, but coming from the other direction, geographically, that is. It is not clear how Mr. Cheny fits into this, perhaps he is the third side of a tri-lateral exchange. Perhaps he went to Riyadh to give the Saudis a heads up on some bad news, or some good news. The plot thickens.

Bahrain Elections:
The (mainly Shi'a) opposition has won a majority of the legislative elections in Bahrain this week. But don't hold your breath in awe\: the elections are for only half the legislature- the king appoints the other half, all of them. The deck of cards is stacked.

Cheers
Mohammed

Suspicious Killing in Lebanon, Gulf Currency, British-Saudi Arms Deal and Kicbacks

Is Syria being Framed in Lebanon?:
Do you believe in coincidences? On November 17, four days ago, Mr. Sameer G'ag'a (Gaagaa), a Lebanese militia leader allied with the government of Mr. Siniora warned that cabinet ministers might be assassinated in an attempt to destabilize the government of Mr. Siniora. He was implying the Hezbullah and pro-Syrian agents might undertake such attempts. Today, four days after that statement, low and behold, a cabiner minister was assassinated and another escaped the same fate. Most fingers, as expected, pointed toward Syria and her allies. It is possible that Syria's allies and agents were involved...but things just look too convenient. The assassination occurs at a time when Washington and the West in general is seeking to engage Syria on Iraq and other issues. Would Syria be so foolish as to endanger her new 'rehabilitaion'? It is possible- Arab leaders are not always known for their wisdom- but one just wonders about the timing. Remember Don Corleone's warning against believing in coincidences.

Gulf Currency Delayed:
The Gulf GCC states had agreed to issue a unified currancy for the six member states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE) by 2010. Now the media report that there are differences. Some Kuwaiti, Saudi, and Omani officials have already hinted at disagreements and possible delays in introducing the currency. There seem to be disagreement on the name of the currency: most likely the Kuwaits and Bahrainis like it ot called the Dinar, the Saudis, Qataris, and Omanis like the Riyal (or Rial), the UAE probably likes the Dirham. I wonder if they realize that all these names are either of pagan origin (the Dinar and Dirham) or Christian kaffir origins (the Riyal or Rial). The Dinar 's origins are Roman- the Dinarius was the currency of ancient Rome- while the Real (Royal) is Spanish and Catholic to boot. Of course, there is always the Shekel to fall back on, and it was used by some venerable old Prophets....

There is apparently some disaggreement on whether each state will have its own version (issue) of the Gulf currency, or if it should be all indistinguishable. The former does not make any sense in a currency union, which in turn does not make any sense unless it is a monetary union, which also makes no sense unless there is serious coordination of monetary and fiscal policies.

Saudi Slush Fund:
The British media report that the Serious Fraud Office has been investigating allegations of systematic corruption in international arms deals by Britain's largest arms company, BAE Systems.The Guardian reports that the SFO has also been investigating illegal secret arms-deal commissions involving members of the Saudi royal family. Apparently the BAE, the Defense Department and the Saudis were not aware that investigators were closing in, until recently. Swiss authorities have notified two Arabs that investigators are seeking access to their accounts. The BAE has retained lawyers and the Saudis deny any worngdoing. Apparently the investigation might endanger Al-YAmamah 3, a new multibillion pound instalment of BAE warplabe sales to the Saudis. The newspaper reports that the Saudis have threatened to break diplomatic relations and stop anti-terror cooperation if the investigation proceeds.
The Guardian claims to have seen official British documents proving that the Saudi royal family gets information from MI6 about the situation inside Iran. The Guardian had earlier claimed that the BAE runs a 'Saudi slush fund" and uses an offshore conduit, Red Diamond, to make secret overseas payments. The newpaper claims that one Whitehall document quotes a Britidh ambassador as having reported that the family of Crown Prince Sultan "had a corrupt interest in all contracts".

Uneven and Cruel Justice:
Last week a destitute Asian woman (39 years old) was sentenced by a three judge Saudi Arabian court to death by stoning. Funny how those sentenced to cruel death are always the poor, mostly the expatriates from the third world. The woman had been married to an older Saudi man, and had 3 children by him. After he died 3 years ago they became destitute (in a rich oil country), and lived on charity.
The woman had sought to remarry, but could not because in Saudi Arabia she needs the approval of a male relative to marry. She has no male relatives in Saudi Arabia, therefore no marriage. Nature took its course, an unfortunate thing to happpen to the unfortunate ones in Arabia, and she got pregnant. She gave birth at a clinic which promptly reported her to the police. The court claims that she confessed to sinning (in a country that has no sins) and that she refuses to appeal her sentence, that she wants to be executed, 'in order to purify herself' and go to paradise. (It would be a long jump, from hell to paradise).
Cheers
Mohammed

Iraq and Democrats, Persian Gulf Fences, Mideast Molotov

Democrats and the War:
The Democratic control of both houses of Congress will mean a gradually reduced role for the Unites States in Iraq. It will also mean that the likelihood of war with Iran has receded even farther. That war was always an extremely remote possibility, the warmongering noises among some of the Persian Gulf media notwithstanding. One Kuwaiti tabloid, Alseyassah, claimed somewhat hopefully on its front page on Thursday that the United States has made a decision to attack Iran- it did not make clear if the decision was post-Rumsfeld's resignation or ante the same.
There is still the likelihood of economic sanctions and even a much less likely blockade. The longest example of economic sanctions in our time has clearly failed to achieve its targets: the U.S sanctions aginst Cuba, which did not weaken Castro. The main effect of the U.S sanctions on Cuba has been to transform Miami and make it a more diversified, more lively place. It also acquainted us with the probably exaggerated discreet charms of the Marielitos, thanks to Jimmy Carter's ill-advised throwing of verbal gauntlets and Castro's penchant for practical jokes. Castro has been in power for 48 years under sanctions. Saddam Hussein under sanctions would have died in office, and succeeded by one of his sons or a crony.

Iran's Nuclear Issue:
Iran's Ahmadinejad stated yesterday that his country will be 'fully nuclear' within a few months, whatever that means. The assertion quickly shifted some of the attention in Washington away from politics and toward the Middle East, mainly the Persian Gulf region, particularly across the Shatt al-Arab waterway. Oil prices rose today since his statement reminded traders of economic sanctions and a possible oil supply cutoff, and also because data showed that U.S fuel inventories fell. Now the ball is in Kim Jong Il's court again: he surely will feel the need to make a statement of some kind to reclaim world attention that was righfully his before the little Iranian upstart hit the world stage.

Good Fences and Good Neighbors in the Gulf:
Saudi Interior Minister Prince Nayef said that his country will start building its security fence along the border with Iraq next year. It will stretch about 900 kilometers and is aimed at 'keeping Islamic extremists from entering Saudi Arabia'. Perhaps it will also work the other way, keeping Jihadist terrorists and, more important, the oil money from flowing into Iraq and strenghtening the terrorists?
The wall is part of a $12 billion plan that will take up to six years to finish, and is expected to secure the border. The Kingdom is clearly worried about the potential of a civil war in Iraq and possible spillover across the border. I wonder who will get this lucrative building contract and, more important in good Persian Gulf tradition, which potentate is their local representative/agent/dealer?
And to think that Saudi Arabia signed a non-aggression pact with Iraq early in 1990- but then so did Stalin sign a non-aggression pact with Hitler- ok, Ribbentrop-Molotov get the credit for that one. In those same days Egypt-Jordan-Yemen were talked into entering an alliance dominated by Saddam- basically an alliance of Arab have-nots.

Others are now toying with the idea of security fences also, including little Kuwait which has been a target of aggressive moves by various Iraqi regimes since before its independence. The last time was when the Ba'ath claimed that it wanted to 'liberate' Jerusalem via Kuwait in 1990- the rest of that is history that is still unfolding in a bloody fashion.
(It also looks like the idea of a U.S-Mexico fence is dead now, if it ever had a chance: remember, the Maginot Line never lived up to its billing, nor did the Bar-Lev line).

Lebanon:
Lebanon is two opposing camps again, with Amal and Hizbullah (both Shi'a) , the President of the Republic (Christian), the Speaker of Parliament, General Michele Oun (Christian) and a few other smaller groups one one side. Most other political parties are on the other side. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and President Emile Lahoud have both called the cabinet now unconstitutional. Unfortunately for the country, given that the Shi'as form the largest group, probably after the Maronites, it looks like there will be either a new Prime Minister or a de facto internal cantonization. Not a good situation for the international peace-keeping forces to find themselves in right now.

Cheers
Mohammed

Bin Ladin's Women, Salafi 'Facilities', Lebanon

Lebanon:
Political tensions in Lebanon intensified. Shi’a ministers and some of their allies have resigned from the cabinet, and the Prime Minister refused to accept their resignations, but he made sure that they remain ‘resigned’ by calling a cabinet meeting that approved a controversial measure about the Harirri assassination. The move has probably doomed the Siniora government, since the Shi’a parties, and a few others, will now refuse to remain in his government. The President of Lebanon, who is by tradition a Christian Maronite, also refused to attend the cabinet session and called the cabinet measure ‘unconstitutional’. Al-Manar TV, run by Hizbullah, said that ‘the pitcher has broken’ between the two sides in the cabinet, which in Lebanese means that they have reached the point of no return.

Thus the stage is set in Lebanon for a new clash between two sides that also represent regional powers by proxy. While one side basically represents the political leanings of the Iran-Syria axis, the other side represents the leanings of Saudi Arabia and her allies and by extension is seen to represent the United States and the West. It looks like Lebanon might be going back to its bad old form of the 1970s and 1980s, when regional and foreign powers moved political events through their proxies.

Iraq:
In Iraq, groups representing Chaldians, Assyrians, and other Christians have asked that they have a semi-autonomous enclave and that it become part of Iraqi Kurdistan. These groups probably foresee an uncertain future, caught between fundamentalist Sunnis beholden to Al-Qaeda Jihadist terrorists and Fundamentalist Shi’as beholden to the militias. The Kurdish region looks attractive by comparison.

Bin Ladin’s Love Life:
A former close associate of Osama Bin Ladin, the Yemeni Rashad M. Sa’eed, has provided Alarabiya TV with glimpses into the Al-Qaeda leader’s love life. He claims that all Bin Ladin’s wives are usually with him in Afghanistan (in Pakistan now), except for his Syrian wife Najwa who travels to her home country each year, and that includes his Yemeni wife. Bin Ladin has divorced one of his Saudi wives because she refused to join him and remained in Arabia. This means that he has four wives at this time, i.e. he is fully occupied now since the faith allows only four wives at one time. This also means, in the delicate lingo used by Salafi Fundamentalists for such delicate matters, that his 'facilities are not kept idle'. He is not even a quarter eligible. It is still not clear whether he is always ready when the moment is right- if that was the case then perhaps Eli Lilly would have him in their commercials.

The man claims that Bin Ladin trusted him sufficiently to send him to Yemen to find him a new wife, his fifth one, which he did successfully and had her shipped to Afghanistn in 2000. Sounds like an Arabian Miles Standish bit on board the Mayflower. He also says that Osama was not a very sexual person and did not over-marry. He claims that two of the wives are already past 50 years, which in Afghanistan/Pakistan would mean that they are way past it, but that he has not replaced them (it may be hard to replace two wives while on the run). He says that Osama had a large house in Kandahar for all his wives, each with a suite of rooms and a kitchen, and that he took turns ‘visiting with’ his wives each day of the week. He denied reports that Osama had a love relation with a Sudanese poet(ess), or that he was sexually interested in a ‘western’ singer, (some western media had reported that he had the hots for Whitney Houston).

Sa’eed also claims that Al-Qaeda has trained women to be active as support and technical personnel and that they are also trained to fight in self-defense. This last assertion is especially highly unlikely to be true. However, if they wish they can get some shailkh to issue a fatwa allowing such training.
He also said that Osama did not suffer from kidney disease, was not homesick, and that he is quite healthy. Oh, and he also missed his mother.

Cheers
Mohammed

Gulf Markets Weaker, Islamic Caliphate in Iraq, Chianti in Rome, and Burning DC

Saudi Market Meltdown:
On Saturday Nov. 11 the Saudi stock market continued its decline, and lost about Riyal 6 billion in market value. The market index lost about 5% for the day, to close barely above 8000, the lowest level of almost two years. At some point the index briefly broke through that psychological level. The President of the Saudi Market Authority (the equivalent of the SEC and the NYSE) claimed the decline was unjustified and did not reflect the ‘strength of the Saudi economy’. Dr. al-Tuweijri was appointed early this year after the sack of his predecessor because the market was ‘inexplicably’ declining. He contended in an interview that the Saudi market is ‘oversold’, a risky thing for an overseer to say about the market. Traders grasped at his statement and invited the government to put its money where its mouth is and start purchasing these cheap ‘oversold’ Saudi shares.

Other analysts claimed that the behavior of the market is a a catastrophic mystery, and an enigma, but they did not say what it is wrapped in. Some have said that the market is ‘out of control’, beyond the influence of the Authority or the Ministry of Finance. A leading economist claims that the market requires intervention by a ‘higher authority’: they mean the King and not divine intervention. Traders and ‘investors’ seem frustrated that the Saudi market has lost 60% of its value even as the overall economy, led by the petroleum sector, has been growing (in nominal terms). Now all eyes are looking at the ‘Palace’ to do something- the problem is that a palace, even the Saudi ‘Palace’, can artificially lift the market only temporarily through politically ‘inspired’ measures. This was done earlier this year in Saudi Arabia, on order of the King, but its positive effects did not last.
In Kuwait, the market followed the Saudi lead and declined sharply for the day. Traders attributed the decline to profit taking and the effects of the Saudi market decline. The Kuwait market has also been plagued with serious issues of lack of transparency and questionable financial disclosure by listed companies.
At the end of the day, all GCC markets declined, but none nearly as deeply as the Saudi market.

Iraq:
ALfayhaa TV, Iraqi owned and operated but stationed in Dubai, reports that U.S military leaders are re-assessing their strategy in Iraq. Meanwhile Iraqi President Jalal Talibani said that the Democrats, victorious in recent congressional elections, will not push for an early withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.

Abu Hamzaa al-Muhajjir (his last name, meaning immigrant, indicates that he is supposed to be from outside Iraq), has issued a comment on the U.S elections. Clearly he watches the American media, for he used the term ‘lame duck’ in his statement. He accused President Bush (he called him the fool) of spreading the influnce of the Persian Magian (Magii) Empire over Iraq. He also urged true believers to be patient, and promised that the Jihad will not end until they ‘reach the olive trees of Rome’, and that would be after they blow up the ‘filthy house they call the White House’. He did, however, not promise free Chianti to true believers once they get to Rome. He also said that the first stage of the Jihad has ended and that they have started a new stage whereby they put down the ‘first brick in building the Islamic Caliphate’.

The Sunni Tawafuq leaders threatened to pull out of the 'political process' and resort to force of arms if they do not get what they want.....more power as a prelude to regaining the total power they lost in 2003.

Lebanon:
The political crisis started last summer with the Hezbullah-Israel war has deepened suddenly. Hezbullah and Amal movements, the major Shi’a political organizations in Lebanon, have announced the withdrawal of their five ministers from the Lebanese government. This should doom the current cabinet of Mr. Siniora, whom the Shi’as want replaced with a government of ‘national unity’. Prime Minister Siniora has refused to ‘accept the resignations’, whatever that means. on Monday, the Lebanese cabinet met, minus seven ministers and the pro-Syrian president, and approved a document on the Hariri murder investigation. This is considered an escalation by the Shi'a groups and their allies and it probably spells the end of the current government.

Cheers
Mohammed

Reactions to U.S Elections, Arab Views of De-Rumsfeld-ification and Re-Ba'athification, Wedding Night Blues

Victorious Jews?:
Quote from Alarabiya.net (Nov. 8, 2006), the website of the Saudi-owned satellite TV station:
"American Jews celebrated the victories of the largest number of their people to reach the U.S Congress in history. The number of Jews in the Senate increased by two, while the number of Jewish representatives increased by four. Jews now total 43 in both houses of Congress....... It is known that Nancy Pelosi, the prospective Speaker, has strong ties to pro-Israeli Jewish groups. She even lives in the Bay Area, not far from Amy Friedkin, her close friend and former president of AIPAC. " Is this a smoking gun or what?
The station did not specify where these Jewish celebrations took place, and I could not find any information on the web. Their worry is undestandable, though, from their viewers' point of view: today 43, tomorrow.......535? The station is noted for the appearances in interviews over the past two years of top U.S officials, the very top officials.
An interesting question: who keeps records of such details? And how do they know who is what?

Recall the Ba'athists:
Editor of the Saudi-owned Asharq Alawsat (Middle East) has welcomed the departure of Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, probably the only bright thread he sees in the Democratic sweep of the elections yesterday. He calls (Nov. 9, 2006) for moves by the U.S to re-institute the old Iraqi army and Security Services in order to 'break Iraq away from Iran'. The editor argues that building institutions is more important at this stage than voting. He does not say who would build these institutions and how they are selected for this task. There were many solid institutions under the Ba'ath, including several security services, numerous political prisons, scattered mass graves- but they did not keep the country stable because it got into several major wars within twenty years, and ended up being invaded and ravaged three times. Initiating wars of aggression against neighbors is one sure sign of unstable institutions.
About this editor's proposal to recall the old, very dead, army and security services: is this a call for re-Ba'athification or de-Rumsfeldification? Or is it a desire for de-Shia-fication? What about the North? Will it be de-Kurdified?

Iraqi Reaction:
Azzaman daily published mostly from London by some of the old Sunni political elites (the secular pan-Arabists who dominated the country) welcomed the departure of Rumsfeld, and called heartily for the punishment of 'those collaborators he brought with him' and gave power to. Azzaman did not mention the three elections that brought some of those people to power.
Assabah, closer to the government in Iraq, did not comment on Rumsfeld's departure.
The Iraqi press did however carry reports of a possible change of ambassador to Baghdad. Other Arab media also speculated about replacing Khalilzad, a Sunni, with whom some in the ruling coalition do not get along.

A Little Cheer:
A Saudi man discovered on his wedding night that his bride was not a virgin- it turns out that she had been married briefly (civil marriage) to a man who had recently divorced her by mumbling the mandatory 'I divorce thee' three times. The latest is demanding that she be jailed and that he get back the dowry he paid for her. Another man, an Arab expatriate in Mecca, is also suing his bride for 'lack of virginity' on their wedding night. He is also suing for divorce and return of dowry (sans interest, of course). Perhaps they emphasized safe sex rather than teaching abstinence at her school district. The husband says that he is devastated and has left his family home and checked into a hotel, presumably in Saudi Arabia, to recuperate. In his case a knowledgeable scholar, no not a frat boy, noted that it would be hard to ascertain when if the virginity was lost before or during the wedding night- apparently the bride is contesting the groom's assertion.

Cheers
Mohammed

GCC Markets Anemic, Fundamentalists Celebrate in Tehran, Saddam Sentenced

Gulf Markets Tank:
The Saudi market continued its sharp decline that started the week on Saturday (Nov. 4), the first trading day of the week. The market index today broke 8500, its lowest level of two years (last recorded on January 2005). The index closed the day at 8427.22. The decline has been across the board, with few exceptions. Some traders claim that large funds are dumping ‘quality’ shares that are normally part of their core investments, and these include telecoms, industrials and financials. Among the new measures demanded by traders are easing rules for margin lending, as well as activating the role of market makers. Others attribute part of the decline to the delay by some listed companies of implementing new accounting and disclosure requirements of the Exchange Authority that were initiated on January 2006. Most traders and investors seemed stunned by the continued decline, and some have started to predict possible dire consequences on the loan portfolios of banking system. It is likely now that all new public offerings (IPOs) will be halted or severely curtailed. Other GCC markets also declined in recent weeks, but they improved sightly Wednesday.

Fundamentalist Fiesta in Tehran:
In Tehran a few thousand demonstrators, led by some Iranian politicians, mullahs, and other such exciting personalities, recently commemorated the 1979 storming and hostage-taking at the old United States embassy. The fundamentalists who rule Iran apparently consider that diplomat-napping one of the major achievements of the revolution. If there are other major achievements of the Islamic Revolution over the past 27 years, they must be well hidden and kept as state secrets, for they are not apparent to most others, and they are especially not apparent to the Iranian people. To cap the festivities, some mullahs and demonstrators burned the American and Israeli flags, as well as some unflattering effigies of President Bush. It is understood that the American and Israeli flags are now the second and third most popular flags in Iran, after the national colors of course. It is reported that the same two flags are also quite popular in certain regions of Pakistan as well. In the end the revelers in Tehran all sang a rendition of the mullahs’ all-time favorite hit “Marq bar Amrika, Marg bar Israel..…Death to America, death to Israel.” The Iranian and Arab media, however, did not report if they sang it to the tune of Auld Lang Syne.

Saddam Sentenced in Baghdad:
Saddam Husseim was sentenced to death today. Kurdish towns were quietly relieved, Shia' towns erupted in celebrations, and Sunni towns erupted in angry protests. Looks like a very regional and con-federalist set of reactions.


Cheers

Mohammed

GCC Monetary Union: (Heathen Roots?), Coup Plot in Iraq

(The Face of Agony & Misery)

Gulf Monetary Union:
GCC monetary authorities are meeting in
Abu Dhabi this week.Among the topics of discussion will be the plan for monetary union between member states. This will be based on the European example, with a central Monetary Authority based on the ECB. Leaders of the GCC had agreed in 2001 to aim for monetary union by January 2010. It is not clear whether the real implications of monetary union are understood by the political leaders, or whether the finance and economic officials understand them to a degree that they can explain what they entail to the leadership- provided that they have the gumption to do so. It is not clear if broad and serious policy coordination steps are being take to make it possible to achieve the union by 2010. Recently some officials have been backtracking about the likelihood of meeting the deadline. GCC officials claim that the union will eliminate the costs of currency conversion and ‘increase trade between members’. Does this mean they will export more petroleum and natural gas to each other?

The issue of a unified currency was first discussed in 1975, long before the GCC was formed- it was originally discussed only between Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. That was before Saudi Arabia came to be considered a 'Gulf' country. Studies were commissioned by some well-known international economists of the time, foremost among them Robert Mundell who prepared the first study in 1975-76 and later won the Nobel Prize (definitely not for that paper). Later, with the inclusion of Oman and Saudi Arabia, currency unification was dropped. At one point in the 1970s even Iraq was included in monetary consultations among Gulf Arab countries, although some of the members resented that. Oman used to be a pariah among the pan-Arabists of the time who dominated the Kuwait foreign ministry for decades (until the Iraq invasion of 1990), because the Sultan was involved in a mini civil war against some guerrillas and had enlisted British and Iranian (under the Shah) help.

It is also not clear what this new currency will be called. The problem in this age of fundamentalism, actually petro-fundamentalism because that is what has been fueling it, is that all national currencies have foreign kaffir (that is heathen to most of you) names. The Dinar (Kuwait and Bahrain) has pagan roots, since it comes from the ancient Roman Dinarius, used over two thousand years ago, since before Christ and before Caesar. The Riyal or Rial (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman) comes from the Spanish 'Real' meaning Royal. So will we use a currency named for Fernando and Ysabel, the conquerors of Grenada- perhaps the very Catholic currency of the distasteful Torquemada who dreamed of oro of los Indios in this world and heavenly edification in the other? As for the Dirham (UAE), it is most likely named after the old Greek Draxma. But don't tell the fundamentalists what they probably know, because if you do, then they might have to do something about it. Some of them probably believe that these currency names came with the scripture.

Iraqi Coup Report (Again):
London-based has Alhayat published a report by one of its columnists about the rumors of a coup in Iraq. The report (10/29/06) says that even though these rumors have been discounted publicly, they are in fact taken seriously within American research centers, among the security agencies, policy advisers and among ‘decision makers’ in Washington. Presumably the initial rumors were spread by U.S agencies as trial balloons, with the possibility of implementing them by suspending the (Iraqi) constitution, dissolving parliament, dismissing the government, and declaring emergency law. Discussion within the ‘Green Zone’ has now gone beyond the ‘if and how’ and it now centers on the persons who will be the front for this coup. US and British troops will defend the new regime against opponents- perhaps they will do a better job than they have been doing so far. The new mantra will be ‘security and stability’ instead of ‘democracy and freedom’. Does this ring a recent bell?

This coup plan includes measures to crush the expected opposition, mostly from the majority Shia’s who stand to lose the most. It also includes plots to assassinate some leaders who are expected to cause the most trouble after the coup. The new regime will be called a government of ‘National Salvation’- not very original, but telling. It is claimed that the Baker-Hamilton group has emphasized the importance of ‘security and stability’ as well- that is, post-coup stability. The report claims that this explains the increased ‘flirting’ as it is called, recently between U.S authorities in Iraq and the Sunni terrorist/insurgent groups. The leaders of the coup will be some high-ranking officers of the old ‘Ba’ath’ military, many of whom have established close relations with the U.S intelligence services and with several neighboring autocratic Arab regimes.

However, the report cautions that Iraqi military units might respond to a coup by siding with their respective sectarian sides, which would effectively mean a classic civil war. The report says that the U.S administration is mainly concerned with extricating itself from Iraq soon, and that some Iraqi politicians (has beens) are encouraging a coup as the only means for them to have a leading role in Iraq again. On the other hand, this will be considered a betrayal by the Coalition of the values and principles that were used to justify the invasion, post-invasion.

Back in Iraq:
Looks like Prime Minister al-Maliki has finally had his inevitable confrontation with U.S ambassador in Baghdad, during which he said that he is a friend of the US but that he is not 'the United States's man in Iraq'. Al-Maliki apparently is as frustrated with the Americans over there as they are with him, and has complained about the confusing array of American commands (military and civilian) that he has to deal with- it is confusing even to most American experts. Reading Bob Woodward's 'State of Denial' is helpful in understanding the roots and the degree of confusion of United States policy 'inside' Iraq, and why it is even more confusing to al-Maliki and other Iraqi officials. Now the Prime Minister and President Bush have agreed to form a team of four high ranking officials to sort things out.
Cheers
Mohammed

Gulf Finance & Politics, Rafsanjani's Last Tango, Dysfunctional Iraq

GCC Finance & Politics:
A report by the Dubai National Bank warns of a looming serious debt crisis for the middle classes in the Gulf oil states- that would be a serious problem of non-performing loans for the region’s banks. The Kuwaiti banking system went through two such crises, mostly related to stock market speculation and crashes, and the government had to step in and bail out the banks through bailing out the individual and corporate debtors. The Kuwait government had to bail out the banks during 1970s, and again during the 1980s when it ended up owning controlling shares of most of the companies in the country. It had to step in again after the Iraqi invasion in 1990-1991. In a phrase that is purely deja vue, the Dubai report warns that the quality of bank assets in the GCC, including the UAE, could deteriorate noticeably by 2007 or 2008. As asset prices have declined, many borrowers may be unable to pay off their loans, which would put severe pressure on the banks’ loan provisions.

The media in Kuwait is already talking about the specter of a new stock market crisis, as the losses of the local investment companies in the stock market have reached near one billion Kuwaiti Dinar this year (Alqabas: 10/28/06). The front page of Alwatan, whose owners may have their own axe to grind in personal disputes with a major merchant family that also operates the rival Alqabas newspaper, has compared the current situation to a new 'Manakh crisis'- that was when the market crashed in 1982 (Alwatan: October 28). This is part of an ongoing rivalry and political dispute between various political and financial heavy-weights in Kuwait. This dispute dates back to political disagreements and some major financial scandals extending from the early 1980s through the early 1990s, involving the ministries of Finance and Oil.

In Saudi Arabia, the stock exchange will start a new system of one-session trading every day. Under the old system there were two trading sessions each day: one in the morning and one in the evening. This is seen by some as one way to reduce the level of speculation and trading losses by inexperienced civil servants and students who spent their evenings trading (there are not many other known evening diversions in Saudi Arabia). One very likely result of the change would be for government civil servants to skip some work hours during the day and head for the market- this in itself might actually improve the performance of the state bureaucracy by keeping some of them away from their offices.

Meanwhile, the media war continues between Saudi Arabian outlets and little neighboring Qatar, but it is mostly a one-sided war, initiated by the Saudis against Qatar and her policies. Qatar has been the maverick of the Persian Gulf region for some years now, as well as a thorn in the side of the Saudi government. It is hard to classify the country other than a maverick because it has for years rejected the Saudi claim and obvious sense of entitlement to leadership of the GCC. It is home to the most popular and most controversial Arab TV station, Aljazeera, as well as home of the US Central Command regional HQ. It probably has the largest natural gas reserves among Arab countries. It also has the only Israeli 'trade' office in Doha, and Israeli foreign minister Tsipi Livni will make her first visit of the Gulf to Doha next week. Qatar is sort of like France was under General De Gaulle, independent but keeping one foot in the alliance. In fact it is like France is today under whoever occupies the Elysee Palace.

Iran Accused in Argentina:
Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, former Iranian President and still an influential figure in the clerical regime, is in some trouble- or he can be if he ever leaves Iran to travel to the West. The degree of trouble he will be in varies directly with how close he gets to Argentina- if he ever sets foot in Buenos Aires he will be up the proverbial fecal creek. Two Argentine prosecutors have asked that Rafsanjani and other Iranian officials be arrested for a bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires in 1994 that killed 85 people. At the time Rafsanjani was president of Iran. The prosecutors claim that the Iranians recruited Hizballah to do the job. Hizballah does not normally have a geographic interest beyond Lebanon and Israel. In any case, it looks like no more tangos for that ayatollah.

Iraq Dysfunctional:
Muqtada al-Sadr has warned against violence committed by some renegades among his followers, and said that the incidents that occurred between some of his followers and the government forces were the result of ‘disobedience of orders’.

In an interview with Reuters, P.M. al-Maliki of Iraq discounted reports that the US was considering replacing him, and said that would be against the stated American goal of allowing Iraqis the 'freedom of choice'. He also complained that: “As Prime Minister I am the Commander in Chief or the armed forces, but I cannot move a single brigade without getting approval from the Coalition (U.S) because of United Nations authorization (?)” He also said he approves of the attempt to arrest the Sadrist leader Abu Dir’a who was responsible for some sectarian killings, but he objected to the violent method used because it could lead to undoing a compromise reached with al-Sadr.

Northern Iraq should heat up within the next few months. Already the Sunni Fundies have declared it part of their Emirate (apparently they need some oil fields to make it look like a real Arab Emirate). The Kurds and others are bracing for a referendum in December 2007 on whether Kirkuk will join the Kurdish autonomous region- right now it looks like it will vote to join Kurdistan. The Fundies in al-Anbar are certain to escalate and shift some of their efforts north, since they will want to preserve their declared Emirate intact. The Kurds already have some problems with the central government over their oil contracts.
Cheers
Mohammed

Iraq Coup Rumor, Proselytizing Shi'as, Worried Wahabis

Rumors of a Tabloid Coup:
A Kuwaiti tabloid, alseyassah, claimed again Tuesday that 'reliable Iraqi and Arab sources' (oxymoron?) have revealed to it that the United States and Gulf GCC countries are coordinating toward a military coup that would overthrow the elected Iraqi government. Al-Siyassah, close to some fringe elements in the country's political circles, is not known for its reliable reporting. The tabloid claims that the Ba'ath Party has been contacted through Arab governments and offered a role in the new Iraqi regime. The report claims that the coup will be a joint American-Iraqi effort that would lead to dissolving the parliament and suspending the constitution- and no more New Middle East, birth pangs and all. The paper claims that the governments of Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have been consulted- not a very good way to keep such a secret plot....secret. Three generals a Sunni, a Shi'a, and a Kurd (cute) are slated to run the country.
Versions of this plan have been repeated in the same newpaper in different forms over the past three months- it is noteworthy that few other media outlets have treated these reports seriously. Apparently the authorities in the four accused Arab countries do not take this report seriously enough to deny it- perhaps they are not good at dissembling.

The Saudi Drums of Sectarianism:
The tightly-controlled Saudi media continues to beat the drums of sectarian conflict in the Arab World. They are now talking as if Iraq is already a lost cause, taken over by Shi'ism and Kurds. They seem to be worried about holding the next line of defense, wherever that might be.
London-based Saudi daily Asharqalawsat reports in a column by an editor of Alarabiya TV, also Saudi-owned, about the dangers posed by the spread of Shi'ism in the Arab World. The report claims that even the Moslem Brotherhood, long nursed by the Saudis in the days when Nasser of Egypt was persecuting the fundamentalist group, has been infiltrated by Shi'ism. The report complains that some venerable Egyptisn media outlets have also been infiltrated by Shi'ism. It is beginning to sound like The Invasion of The Body Snatchers all over again, the older b/w version. The writer argues that this proselytizing is dangerous and unacceptable for some vague reason. Interesting insight. Then again, if this is the case......what about Riyadh? Will we see Shi'a houses of worship as well as churches and synogagues in Riyadh soon? Will we still continue to see Wahabi mosques built in Europe and America, and new converts?

A high-ranking Saudi theologian and thinker, a paid official of the state (they all are), a Sheikh Dr. Salman al-Ouda (aka Suleiman or just plain Shlomo) has warned of the spread of Shi'ism in mainly Sunni Arab countries.
( Sheikh Dr. Ouda the cheerful chap in the pic)

He has said that this is a dangerous phenomenon that is unacceptable (mass lobotomy may be in order here) and that it has spread through some dastardly sneaky methods, including financial incentives. He also told Aljazeera TV that the American occupiers have used the Shi'as in Iraq to destroy the Sunnis, and that they, the Americans, are now trying to create conflict among the people. He also condemned the spread of Shi'a mosques and Husseiniyah houses of worship in many countries like Syria and Palestine. The sheikh did not, however, claim that children's blood are being drunk in secret rites or that water wells are being poisoned- not yet, but stay tuned.

Unrepentant Hamas and Iran Echo Each Other in the Wilderness:
Hamas Foreign Minister has finally settled all doubts about the possibility of peace. He repeated the hardline position of Iran's Ahmadinejad, that Israel is an 'alien body' in the Middle East, claiming that it has no religious, cultural, or historical legitimacy. He claimed that his group seeks a Palestine that will spread from the 'Mediterranean to the River Jordan'. This will definitely not endear him to most of the world, but perhaps it will win him the next elections that are now looming- he is lucky that the 5-6 million Jews of the area he claims will not be voting in the next Palestinian elections. Perhaps he sees the writing on the wall and has decided to go down fighting.
Ahmadinejad had delivered his newest anti-Israeli wisdom after a long silence while world attention was focused on petulant little Kim Jong Il. Perhaps he missed the limelight of his days in New York. But the Iranian president is a close second to Kim, and trying hard, literally coming in from the outside. Yesterday he claimed that his country has increased her nuclear 'capability' tenfold within the past year. His problem, and that of Iran, is that his country is not stuck somewhere on the northeastern edges of Asia. It is in the middle of the world's main supply of petroleum.

New News:
Israel has announced that Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni will visit Doha to attend a conference on democracy. This is quite a development in the Gulf region, and it is a sign of the times that it does not to shock anyone. Perhaps Sheikh Dr. al-Ouda in nearby Riyadh (the pic above) will agree to see her.
Cheers
Mohammed

Sitting Ducks in Iraq, Saudi Succession, and How to Marry a Genie

Iraq Turns Grimmer:
Looks like it is time for someone to finally crack down in Iraq. This week al-Qaeda terrorists have paraded in Ramadi and other towns west and north of Baghdad, while the Sadrist Mahdi militias took over al-Amarah for a while. This is no good. Even in Vietnam, during thr worst days, militias could not parade with impunity in the cities- with the exception of the Tet Offensive- but at the time they did not parade, they fought and got salughtered, and still inched closer to winning the war.

Iraq will never stabilize as long as its government has no authority on the streets. This must be the message of General Abizaid's return to Washington yesterday. But this does not require a trip back to DC, so there must be something big afoot to resolve the security issue quickly. Otherwise there is no sense for the coalition troops to remain as sitting ducks, albeit well-armed sitting ducks, between warring sectarian factions. It is clear now that this is a war that is truly being fought in a half-assed fashion. Doing it this way only emboldens the enemies and sends a terrible message about American resolve to the peoples of the Middle East.
Perhaps later in November, after the political process has played out, when the only remaining unfinished things are the things that really matter.....

A meeting sponsored by the Orqanization of Islamic Conference (OIC) in Mecca has apparently reached agreement on an 'Accord' to stop the bloodshed and sectarian tensions in Iraq. The problem with this conference is that the main sources of bloodshed and sectarian conflict are not represented: Al-Qaeda, the Ba'ath, and Al-Sadr's Mahdi militias have not attended. The Sunni clans are still not convinced that they have lost their political supremacy- otehrwise they would eagerly accept federalism and autonomy. Ayatollah al-Sistani has not attended or sent a representative although he approved of the meeting. That could be because he is not part to any sectarian conflict or because he does not think the agreement will amount to a proverbial American hill of beans on the ground where it matters. If it is the latter then al-Sistani is absolutely right.

Saudi Arabia:
The Saudi ruling family is preparing for the inevitable. The King has issued a royal decree forming Hei'at al-Bei'a, or the Committee of Allegiance (as in pledging allegiance) for the selection of the Heir to the Throne in the future. That is, for the time after the direct sons of King Abulaziz Ibn Saud die off. They foresee, rightly, the possibility of rivalry and conflict within the family once the first line of heirs die off, something that has happened within other extended ruling families in the GCC. The commitee is composed of princes from the family.

Saudi Arabia-The Lighter Side:
Alarabiya TV reports that a Saudi businessman from Jeddah, that would be the Manhattan of Saudi Arabia, fell for a clever trickster. The man was promised an arranged marriage to a daughter of the King of the Jinns- that would be an actual flesh and blood King of all the jinns not Elvis from beyond. This man was clearly more interested in flesh than blood for he paid more than one million Saudi Riyals as dowry and finder's fees. He paid dearly for the chance of coupling with a princess of n-dimensions (n>3) or perhaps no dimensions (n=0). But he was also told that she would help him make over one billion during the first week of the homeymoon (did not disclose the location of the honeymoon). He was promised about ten billion within the first year.
Saudi media report a marked increase in these unusual cases of fraud and scams in recent months. A sociologist attributes this phenomenon to increased unemployment and the pervasive mentality of making a fast buck (that would be making a fast Riyal in this case). He also noted that many of the gangs that practice this type of fraud originate in Africa for some reason. Still, it takes two and there is one born every....

Cheers
Mohammed

Terrorism, The NFL and Microbrews

The Department of Homeland Security has notified the NFL of terrorist threats that are called 'not credible'. The purported threats involve dirty bombs at 7 venues where football games will be played next Sunday. Al-Qaeda and its affiliates are probably the only group that would contemplate such acts, and they are not the type that would give false warning, or any advance warning. They would rather have the 'events' speak for themselves. Besides Wolf Blitzer did not look like his hair was on fire when he delivered the news. So, this is most likely a concocted attempt to disrupt the games. Maybe some fundamentalist (not of the Moslem variety) would like all the hipflasks that keep people warm, up here in the Northwest and in other places, on a cold Sunday afternoon expropriated. Perhaps some Viking fan does not wish to see his team shellacked by the Seahawks at Qwest Field. Or perhaps it is a Raiders' fan whose heart can't handle a (0-6) record now that Matt Leinart has been edified as a bona fide Quarterback by outplaying Rex Grossman. I for one will sit back and enjoy the game. Unfortunately I could not get tickets for Qwest Field, so it will have to be from the discomfort of my den at home.

It is wise to take precautions in these cases, if only because there are groups that would love to be able to do just that, get dirty bombs- or even clean bombs (that is how desperate they are)- and blow them up in public. But the most likely dirty bombs next Sunday may be the mini ones produced by tens of thousands of screaming micro-brew-soaked spectators.
Cheers
Mohammed

Mr. Bush and al-Sadr In Agreement

Defiance and Flirting in Iraq:
Aljazeera TV, by far the most popular Arab news outlet, quotes President Bush that the current violence in Iraq cannot be summarized simply as an insurgency encouraged or fed by Iran- although he said he was worried about Iranian interference in Iraq. The Iranian mullahs often claim that they are worried about American interference in Iraq as well. Bush said the enemy in Iraq is ‘more complex than that’, something that may surprise the folks at some U.S cable news networks. He also rejected the idea of three autonomous regions in Iraq, perhaps echoing regional worries that it is a prelude to partition. It is not clear what this rejection means on the ground. He did not mention the Kurdish fait accompli in the north, which seems to be thriving politically and economically, thank you very much.

In this position, the President finds himself among an odd mixed company, strange bedfellows, metaphorically speaking. These include first and foremost the troublesome anti-American Muqtada al-Sadr, often called a Shi’a firebrand in the media- his people in the parliament refused to support regionalism. They also include the many Sunni politicians who flirt with the insurgency publicly and perhaps go much farther with the insurgents privately. Arab governments, Iran and Turkey also profess strong support for a unified Iraq. Of course there is nothing sacred about a unified Iraq, anymore than was about a unified Yugoslavia or the Soviet Union, or Czechoslovakia (I was not sure I could still spell it), or the Austro-Hungarian state. Most of these strange regional bedfellows like Iran, Turkey and the Arab countries support a united Iraq based on calculations of their own national interests and especially the interests of their current governments.

Nevertheless, the Iraqi parliament last week went ahead and approved a law for autonomous regions within a federal system- which shows that they do not give a ripe fig what foreigners, all foreigners including their liberators, wish them to do in their own country. Which shows that even though many Iraqis may feel miserable, they also feel politically empowered, even with 130,000 foreign occupation troops. Which in itself says a lot about both the potential of the new Iraqi political system and about the occupying power itself.

On the Other Hand....:
Arab media reports that Jordan’s King recently released from prison two errant Islamist ‘elected’ members of parliament who had been kicked out of the legislature and jailed for giving condolences to the family of terrorist leader Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi after his death in Iraq. The two members and the Moslem Brotherhood are now petitioning the King to ‘re-instate’ them in parliament as well. Interesting, elected legislators are asking an un-elected king to reinstate them to the seats to which the people had elected them.
Now that is real executive power- almost unbridled executive power.
Cheers
Mohammed

An Iraqi Emirate, Persian Gulf War of Words

Iraq- A Declaration of a new Islamic Emirate:
The Mujahideen Shoura Council, consisting of Al-Qaeda and some other Sunni insurgent groups, has announced the establishment of 'The Islamic Emirate in Iraq', to cover parts of northern Iraq as well as the western part which includes Al-anbar province. The new Emir was named as Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi, which is clearly a made-up name with strong implications that the man is a Sunni from Baghdad. No doubt he is a Sunni but he could be from anywhere, including Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan. The news and reports about these shadowy groups indicate that some former Iraqi military officers are allied with the Salafis and Ba’athists. A new name that crops up is Abu Osama Al-Iraqi, aka Khalid Othman, reported to be a former high officer of the Saddam-era armed forces.

On the other hand, it looks like tribal factors among the Sunnis are playing a strong role in exacerbating the inter-insurgent divisions now. It is not clear if the Coalition efforts have had a role in this shift, or if it is a natural outcome of events, given the strong tribal assabiya, the blind loyalty to the tribe and clan that is powerful and supercedes national identity in most Arab countries of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf. Some of the dissidents are criticizing the new leader of Al-Qaeda-Iraq for harming the Sunnis in their terrorist operations. Presumably some of the tribes have been angered that their own members are being killed and injured during indiscriminate operations in mixed neighborhoods.

The announcer of this new Emirate on the web vowed: “We swear by Allah to work and struggle (Jihad) in order to free the captives, lift injustice and tyranny off the Sunna people who are oppressed by the hateful Rawafidhia rejectionists (a term used for the Shi’as, who do not follow the Sunna orthodoxy) and the Crusader occupiers (guess who?).” The announcement condemns the Kurds (agents of Zionism) as well Shi’as (agents of Persian Safawis, a favorite term used by Ba’athists and Salafis for Shi’as). Speaking of which: Aljazeera TV reports the Iraqi government has announced the formation of a joint working team with Iran for ‘security coordination’ between the two countries. Presumably this will involve exchange of intelligence as well as anti-terrorism and border security. It was not reported if they will discuss the Shi'a militias that also plague Iraqi cities.

A New Persian Gulf War (of Words):
To understand the sectarian emotions that Iraq has unleashed in the Arab World, one needs only to look at recent political developments in the Persian Gulf region:

Fear of a continuation of majority rule in Iraq has already pushed many in the Gulf states toward urging an American-approved coup in Iraq- this is almost an oxymoron, any coup will have to be American-sanctioned. These rumors of a coup have been fed by leading Iraqi Sunni politicians and journalists who have established contacts in the GCC states. While most Americans would consider these rumors as absurd manifestations of certain Middle Eastern or Arab peculiarities, they are taken seriously in the Arab World, especially in the politically pre-adolescent Gulf region. In turn, these rumors feed the terrorist insurgency in Iraq, raising its hopes of a return to power.

Many of the elites in the Arab world, and especially in the Gulf, now believe that they were better off with Saddam in power in Baghdad. One can sense it from what is written in some of the media, either openly or between the lines. It is not often clearly expressed because most of these states would not want to irritate or embarrass the American protector, the only power that keeps the big bad regional wolves at bay. These feelings and worries are understandable, given the regional uncertainties unleashed in the aftermath of the fall of the Ba'ath, and given the history of Iraq with her neighbors.

In looking through some of the mainstream media outlets of the GCC countries, one would think that a hot Shi'a-Sunni civil war has already started on the shores of the Persian Gulf. This is especially the case with parts of the Saudi and Kuwaiti media. The website of Alarabiya TV, Saudi-owned but operating from Dubai, last week carried almost daily news reports about alleged mass conversions of Sunnis in Arab countries to the Shi'a sect. Fundamentalist Salafi deputies in Kuwait have accused the token Shi'a minister in the government of distributing pro-Shi'a literature to other cabinet members. Two Kuwait daily rightwing tabloids, al-Watan and al-Siyassah, have hinted at disloyalty among the Gulf Shi'as, as well as reporting that the Mufti of Syria, that country's leading Islamic Sunni scholar and arbiter, has been forced to convert to Shi'ism in order to keep his job. Now it is not known how one converts to Shi'ism or Sunnism, since there are no rites for conversion between sects in Islam. It has to do with how one thinks, what he believes and also on how he or she perceives certain old historical events in early Islam.

The oddest, and perhaps most amusing, report appeared in Al-watan (Oct. 15), where a regular daily columnist published an open letter to President Bush (Oct. 15) telling him that North Korea has developed nuclear weapons only because she fears a 'repeat of past American aggression', urging him to leave North Korea alone and attack Iran and Syria. He said these two countries tend to subvert citizens of Gulf countries. They probably do try to recruit agents in the area, perhaps try to win some hearts and minds, although I can't see how they can win any given the dismal economic and human rights performance of both countries. A piece of advice is in order here: this may not be considered a casus belli (he'll have to look this one up), not by the men and women who will have to do the fighting or their representatives, probably not even by those who will have to give the orders.

The Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) will hold a conference in Mecca to discuss peace in Iraq. A representative of Ayatollah Ali Sistani has publicly urged the conference to include an item discouraging the public use of sectarian language, especially among preachers at the mosques. Some extremist preachers periodically denounce the Shi'as publicly from the pulpit as heretics and encourage others to fight them- apparently the place to do just that is Iraq.

One positive result of these sectarian tensions, and the Iraq war, is that many domestic issues that were swept under the rug will have to be faced now. Still, these are things that can rock a boat, as they say.

Cheers
Mohammed

Iraq's Gruesome Insurance, Gulf Markets

Iraq, Syria and Israel:
Iraq's parliament has approved a law on 'Mechansims and Procedures for Forming Federal Regions'. Regionalism within a federal Iraq is supported by most Shi'as and Kurds who control the legislature. Sunnis, who had dominated the country since its creation by the British after WWI, oppose federalism and regionalism. This is a watershed step for Iraq, and perhaps for other unstable and too-centralized states in the Middle East and Africa.
Perhaps three people were instrumental in the creation of Iraq and its current borders and centralized form of government, as well as that of Jordan: Sir Winston Chrchill, Sir Percy Cox, and Miss Gertrude Bell (Ms did not exist at the time. Gloria Steinem was nowhere to be seen, and people were just getting used to saying 'tovarisch' in Russia in those days).

A gruesome sign of the terrible times in Iraq. London-based daily Alhayat reports (10/11) that some Iraqi men now resort to new measures that ensure that their corpses, or cadavers, can be identified in case they are kidnapped and murdered in this atmosphere of sectarian violence. Some men now tatoo their names on different parts of their bodies. Others add the names of family members and telephone numbers on their bodies. Iraqi families nowadays do not wait long after a member is overdue from an outing- they head to the Central Morgue as a first step, before trying detention centers operated by the Iraqi security forces or the U.S military. Tatoos have helped some families identify the mutilated and decomposed bodies of loved ones.

Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Perez has invited President Assad of Syria to visit Jerusalem and talk peace with Israeli leaders. It is highly unlikely that Assad will accept. Sort of like, 'I knew Anwar Sadat, Anwar Sadat was a friend of mine. You are no Anwar Sadat....etc'

Gulf Financial Markets:
Newsweek reports Qatar might try to host the 2016 Olympics. Qatar has the money to build the facilities and after the UAE is probably the only GCC country that could conceivably organize the event. But it does not have the population, not enough of them to pay for Olympic size tickets. Like other GCC states, the majority of the population are expatriate workers and housemaids, who can hardly afford the money or the time to watch international sports.

Kuwait officials are again talking about a future for the country as a world Financial and Trade Center. Both the Kuwaiti Finance Minister and Central Bank Governor have resumed public statements in this regard. So did the old Commerce Minister, among others. Come to think of it, even the Minister of Awqaf and Religious (Islamic) Affairs has talked about this issue at some point. Some Kuwaitis would jest that perhaps even the Nabat Poets Society (a local Bedouin Dead Poets' Society) have opined about this issue. But this is sort of like a deluded middle-aged spinster who still talks of getting married and having children. Except that a much more attractive and younger bride, the UAE in this case, especially Dubai, has taken the only eligible bachelor in town, and in an irrevocable Catholic (gasp) marriage, which allows for no polygamy. Besides, the powerful local Fun-dementa-lists of the Salafi variety do not have much use for monogamy.

Alhayat quotes a report by Abu Dhabi National Bank that the Saudi Stocks Index lost about 45% of its value during the period between February's high and September of 2006. Qatar lost 31.5%, UAE 30.8%, Kuwait 11.5%, Oman 11.7%, and Bahrain 1.7%. During the first 9 months of 2005, these markets achieved huge gains of between 19% (Bahrain) and 116% (Saudi Arabia). These periodic' moderate' corrections, following exuberant rises, are a good thing for the markets in the long term- except few individuals in the Gulf invest in the local market long-term.

Interesting Item(s):
African media report that a man and a woman were discovered having intercourse in a mosque in Nairobi (Kenya) one night last week during Ramadan. When arrested, the man claimed he did it because he was drunk.

Almost Deja Vue All Over Again:
For a few horrible minutes yesterday morning, hearing the news from Manhattan...it sounded and looked like deja vue all over again...

Cheers
Mohammed

A New Iraq Policy? Gulf Finance

New Direction in Iraq Policy?

There are several reasons to think some changes are on the way in Iraq:

- James Baker, head of a bipartisan Iraq Commission appointed by the congress with White House approval, has been making the media rounds. The commission is supposed to look into possible changes in the Iraq policy. Baker has a long resume as a Republican honcho: Secretary of State, Secretary of Treasury, White House Chief of Staff, Campaign Manager, Bush Florida Recount Legal Council. Mr. Baker is not normally interested in media appearances.
Arab newspapers like Asharq Alawsat and Alquds Alarabi, both London-based, report that the Baker commission will recommend splitting Iraq into three Federal regions, Shi'a, Sunni, and Kurd. Each region will control its own internal security. This would solve the problem of the militias, except in Baghdad.

- Senator John Warner, Chair of Armed Services Committee, back from another trip to the Iraqi front, has been making noises to the effect that things are not going right, and that 'something, some progress, must be done within two or three months' in Iraq.

- Secretary Rice flew to Baghdad last week, met the leaders, then went to Kurdistan and met with Kurdish leaders.

- U. S. Ambassador in Baghdad Zalmay Khalilzad has been quoted (ABC, George Stephanopoulos, Oct 8) as saying that "the problem in Iraq is not the terrorism, but the sectarian violence". Try telling that to the families of the daily victims, Iraqis and Americans, who are maimed and killed every day. Clearly Iraq's main problems, terrorism and sectarianism, are related: without the Salafi and Ba'athist terrorism, which is basically sectarian instigated, people would not seek the dubious and illusory protection of the sectarian militias. As mentioned in an earlier posting here, the failure of the Iraqi government to contain the militias is a direct function of the failure of the Coalition (U.S.) policy to control the terrorism. Nevertheless the terrorists are invisible, especially around Baghdad. The militias are quite visible, and by their visibility they weaken and undermine the sovereignty of the state. This is something that no government can tolerate and survive.

- Some media in the Persian Gulf oil states have been hinting at the possible overthrow of the elected Iraqi government. There have been claims that al-Malki's government will be replaced with a regime of 'National Salvation' or 'National Unity'. If these reports are beyond wishful thinking, and have some elements of truth, then prehaps Secretary Rice's visit had something to do with that as well. This is the least likely and most dangerous scenario, because it undermines the post-war rationale for the war- in this case the Liberation of Iraq becomes the mere Invasion of Iraq. The United States has never invaded an independent country and then forced a dictatorship: Germany, Japan, Italy, Austria, even Grenada and Haiti were eventually allowed to hold elections. It is not likely to depart now from this quintessentially American principle that has defined United States policy since World War I.

GCC Finance:
Dubai is working to attract biotechnology industries, by developing a Dubai (Complex) Center for Biotech, with extensive laboratories and advanced research centers. The plan is code-named Dubiotech (Du-Bio-Tech). Apparently the major competitor anywhere within reach is India, which has a huge reservoir of skilled staff in the field of technology and presumably in biotech as well. India, however, has not been known for its research in biotech, so this may not be an issue. But it has the advantage of low cost of operations. Dubai has the advantages of a more cosmopolitan environment and an interesting lifestyle which will make it easier to attract talent.
The Gulf Emirate was edified by having the IMF meetings held there in 2003, the first Arab country to host the annual meetings.

One problem with Dubai is the extremely high inflation rate. According to media reports many expatriate workers in the UAE already seek second or third jobs in order to be able to meet the costs of living and send money home for their families. Alaswaq.net reports that price increases have ranged between 30%-70% during the period 2003-2006. Rents are reported to have increased by up to 90% for that period. The report said that many people have started speculating in the stock marke in order to supplement their incomes. IMF data show inflation for the GCC countries at 3.2% for this year (for the Middle East oil producers as a group it is 7.6%). These figures, officially sanctioned, do not seem to match anecdotal evidence.

In the Gulf states (GCC) the effects of collapsing stock markets effects tend to be less than in other regions. Government intervention often keeps a floor under share prices. Authorities occasionally purchase shares through their local investment arms in order to shore up prices (the Kuwait Investment Authority is a clear example of this, as well as a new public fund started in Saudi Arabia by the King earlier this year).

Cheers
Mohammed

New Arab Alliance- Jordan (The Country) Suffers PMS.

GCC+2 and Iraq:
There is talk in the Arab media about a new 6+2 conservative alliance in the Middle East. This includes the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) plus Egypt and Jordan. Overseeing this group of 6 will be number 7, Washington. Some officials at the ministerial level in the GCC have denied that such an alliance exists, but the recent meeting in Cairo with Secretary Rice has been noted in the press as an indication that Washington is pushing for an alliance that would be anti-Iranian, anti-Syrian, anti-Hizballah, anti-Hamas, and presumably anti-AlQaeda as well. But perhaps not anti-North Korean, not yet.
Some Islamist political groups in the GCC and in Egypt, and the remnants of the old Secular pan-Arabists, have cautioned of such a Western-dominated alliance. This is reminiscent of the old CENTO (Baghdad Pact) that stretched from Pakistan through Iran to Iraq and Turkey and was rendered defunct after the Iraqi generals started their series of coups in 1958. Such a new alliance will most likely depend heavily on the financial resources of the GCC countries. It looks like the immediate emphasis for this group will be on Iraq, and perhaps the Palestinian-Israeli issue- the New democratic Middle East might be put on the agenda at a much later date, perhaps after the oil wells dry out. I have a suggestion here: perhaps they should start by discussing the crippling foreign debts of Iraq, especially the Arab debts, including the reparation payments?

Troubled Jordan:
Jordan has withdrawn her ambassador from Doha, apparently in protest over Qatar declining to vote for her candidate for UN Secretary General. Qatar is the sole Arab member of the Security Council for the current term. The Jordanians claim there had been an Arab consensus to vote for a Jordanian prince to succeed Kofi Annan, but the Qataris deny that they promised any such thing. Interesting, last time I checked Qatar was an independent country, free to vote for whomever she wanted to. Besides the South Korean who seems slated for the job is a man with much experience, and he would have won anyway.
Jordan has been at the center of several controversies in recent months, some of it of her own creation, and this is something quite uncharacteristic for Jordan, which has a very presentable pair of monarchs- in fact they are the most presentable of all the 20 Arab monarchs (yes they are 20 of them). Well, almost all because I have not seen Her Majesty the Queen of Morocco, and I know King Mohammed VI looks better than Abdullah II.

Perhaps a change of Foreign Minister is in order in Amman. Or is it just a case of national PMS- that is Post Menstrual Syndrome in case you need to look it up? After all, it has been about 80 years since the British took away part of the Palestinian desert (TransJordan), and made it into a Kingdom- at about the same time they patched Iraq together from various Ottoman provinces and handed it to the Sunni potentates and officers corps. I thought 80 years was past it, but perhaps nation- states have a different biological clock. Does that explain the situation in Iraq as well? Does this mean Washingtom chose the wrong year to get rid of the Ba'athist regime?

Oh Oh, Them Cartoons, Again:
A Norwegian media outlet, TV2, has broadcast a documentary Monday (Oct 2) that includes the controversial Danish cartoons about the Prophet Mohammed. Alarabiya TV reports that all Norwegian embassies were forewarned to allow for security precautions. Keep your eyes open for the new snowball.
Cheers
Mohammed

Iran's Troubled Economy and The Diabolus Magnus

Iran Comment

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenai has lashed out at President Ahmadinejad over the state of the Iranian economy. (Why is it that supreme leaders are never elected? Would elections reduce their supremacy?) This sharp criticism may help bring Mr. Ahmadinejad back to earth, down from his perch in the glare of international media and nuclear crisis management. Perhaps the media party is almost over for him. He came to power with promises of reform and improving the economy, something he has not done and is not likely to succeed in doing even if he knew how, not against the wishes of the clerics.
Official figures have mentioned an inflation rate of 10%, and in the Middle East one must add a political cheat premium of at least another 5% (actually another 10% is more reasonable). The unelected Ayatollah has put the economic blame on the elected president, an easy ploy, but attempts at economic and political reform in the past were aborted by the entrenched conservative clerics and their parliamentary allies.

The reality or Iran is that, beyond all the publicity about confrontation with the West (read Washington), and the adulation in some regional Arab media about its nuclear ambitions, the country is as besieged today as it has ever been. True, the hated throat-slitting, chastity-belt peddling, serial-marrying Taliban are gone from next door in Afghanistan, but now there are the forces of the Great Satan and her allies. And the Afghan warlords, poppy-growers and opium smugglers next door are thriving as well. True, the unstable Saddam Hussein, who was never able to resist a war that he could start, has gone into full O.J. courtroom mode. Now the forces of the Great Satan are in tenuous control of Baghdad, and Arab leaders, once shameless hairy cheerleaders for the murderous Ba'ath, are brazenly trying to shift the blame to Tehran for the mess in Iraq.

In fact the whole neighborhood, that is the Arab World from the Tigris to beyond the Nile, is today American territory, covered by a Pax Americana unprecedented since the days of the Roman Empire. Even the Roman Empire never reached the Tigris- that remained Parthian (Persian) territory until the Moslem conquests. Old triumvir Marcus Crassus did a Saddam more than two thousand years ago and invaded across the Tigris- they never found him or his legions nor, more imporatnt for the Romans, did they recover the sacred eagles that he carried.
This is a painful Pax Diabol(ic)us Magnus to the clerics in Tehran. The only exception, the only regional wriggle room the mullahs have, lies in a strip along the southern border of Lebanon and perhaps in Gaza.

Most of the people in Iran are fed up with the leadership, especially city folks, and are unlikely to worry much about the proximity of this Diabolus Magnus, a name often used by the mullahs that most of the people do not agree with and none use privately. Most likely, most Iranians could not care less what happens in the Arab lands to their south and west, across the Persian Gulf or the Zagross Mountains. They have their own tenacious local fundamentalist demons that they would dearly love to shake off. Still, it is wise to know that foreign forces or bombers will not be met with flowers in Iran.

Cheers
Mohammed

Two Faces of the Iraq Coin- Is a Kabbalah on the Way to Baghdad?

Iraq News Analysis

Criticism has increased recently in both the United States and some gleeful media outlets in the Arab World about the failures of the Nouri al-Malki government to rein in the militias in Baghdad. Reports leaked almost every day to the U.S media hint at dissatisfaction with al-Malki's government for its slow pace of restoring security.

On the other hand, criticism of the U.S government failure to control the Jihadist and Baathist Sunni terrorists in Baghdad and other areas has been around for some time now. The new Bob Woodward book, which will come out tomorrow, will add fuel to the fires of criticism of Washington's policy in the aftermath of the invasion.

These two failures in Iraq, specifically in Baghdad are, to repeat a justifiably overused cliche, two faces of the same coin. As long as the Coalition (i.e the U.S) fails to destroy or at least control the Sunni terrorists, it will be impossible for the government in Baghdad to control the Shi'a militias. It will be hard for the politicians to make the case, to their own people, for disarming or redeploying these militias. The militias are not doing anything visibly effective to combat the terrorism either, but that fact is lost in the emotions on the Iraqi street.

Yesterday's news about uncovering Al-Qaida operatives working in the offices of a leading Sunni politician, Mr. Adnan al-Dulaimi (al-Delaimi) will not help matters. Only one man was apprehended, but Jihadist terrorists are like the proverbial (?) cockroaches of the Middle East, if you see one of them in the bathroom you can be certain there is a nest of them in the house.

In the Arab World, it looks like they are trying to make the case in the media, and to their own restless and skeptic peoples, for a grade of 'F' for the Baghdad government, based on the security issue. The potentates in the Arab World would like to push for an unelected government of selected political-military strongmen, a cabal, a ruling Kabbalah to borrow a Hebrew term, which will be politically in line with the rest of the region that extends from the Indus River to the Atlas Mountains. The Jihadists are useful for this purpose because they make the case for a failure of elected governance. These Salafis, however, have a different agenda, they want to make the rest of the region in the image of their townships in al-Anbar, a Talibanesque hellhole.

The Arab potentates should learn a lesson from their experience with the Palestinian Islamic Hamas. After the first Persian Gulf War, Arab oil money poured into Hamas coffers- telethones were even held on Saudi Television to collect money for it. Today Hamas is in power, and they are all trying hard to unseat it.

Cheers
Mohammed