Middle East Analysis
Negotiations continue in Iraq, often publicly and loudly, over a complex system of points whereby cabinet jobs are distributed among the parties. The Kurds publicly seek about 7 ministries. The Sunnis, who complain the loudest of sectarianism, want certain important ministries for their own sect because that would be, well, ‘nonsectarian’. The implication is that the more positions their sect gets, the less ‘sectarian’ the government will be. Sort of like a “my sect is less sectarian than your sect” argument. Crazy Iraqi logic, but they may have a point there, somewhere in there.
Attempts at creating a policy-making extra-electoral body will fail, because most Iraqis will see them for what they are: extra-constitutional attempts at watering down the election results.
The Sunnis have apparently given up publicly on getting the Interior Ministry, which runs the security services. They never had any real hope of getting it. They need to reach an agreement with the Kurds in order to get the next prize they want, the Foreign Ministry now held by the Kurd Hoshyar Zibari. The Sunni Arabs of Iraq, because of their numerical inferiority, ironically have always looked outside Iraq for support, especially to the wider Arab World as a convenient political extension, and they would welcome the Foreign Ministry portfolio. The rest of the Arab League potentates would certainly prefer a non-Kurd, even a non-Shi’a with whom they would feel more comfortable- although that might not bode well for hopes of improving and elevating the level of inter-Arab meetings and conferences. There will continue to be more delusional, and evasive, mutual scratching of backs, perhaps of the kind that led to the Persian Gulf War (Desert Storm), the Iran War (now Iran’s nuclear program), the WMD War, and Darfur…..ad nauseam.
Still, the eventual system of points that will emerge in Iraq will surely make the American Electoral College system, and even the Federal Tax Code, look simple by comparison.
And who should emerge to cast a shadow over all the painful proceedings in Iraq but the Jordanian Grinch himself, the master Islamic terrorist al-Zarqawi. Zarqawi, probably felt that the limelight has been moving away from him to focus on the political process. Ergo, his newest film release, and I must say that the shadow it cast was heavy in more than one sense, for he looks like he eats well, very well, thank you. Perhaps he has taken up eating Pacha (alias Bacha) every morning (the rest of you non-Gulfies can look up the meaning of the term or ask Adnan Pachachi). Zarqawi called himself al- Shaikh (Sheikh) in the caption at the bottom of the film- of the Islamic variety not the tribal one. In addition to the new peerage, he also grabbed the title of leader of the ‘resistance’ in Iraq. Still, he conceded the turf outside Iraq to Usama Bin Laden, whom he called ”our Emir and guardian”.
Al-Hayat, published in London, claims (4/25/06) that the Saudi stock market has lost about 1.2 trillion Riyals of its value in two months of this year. (A lesson: the term Riyal, come from the Spanish ‘Real’, meaning ‘royal’, but most of us don’t know that because we think it is some old Islamic or Arabic name. Well, it isn’t, it is Spanish and Catholic to boot as well. Now that should keep some of the religious police in Arabia awake at night). Note: the same applies for the Iranian, Qatari and Omani Rials. An extra note for Fundamentalists in Kuwait and Bahraini: the Dinar comes from the ancient Roman Dinarius, the currency of Rome since long before Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon, long before he discovered Cleopatra and the corrupting delights of Eastern queens.
Back to the market decline figure, it equals about 320 billion US dollars, according to the newspaper. There has been talk of encouraging foreign investors to own shares directly instead of restricting them to shares in local mutual funds. The same proposals emerge in the other Gulf countries also, including Kuwait, whenever the markets decline sharply for a sustained period. All is forgotten as soon as shares start to rise. Sort of like: we want you to share our pain but not our gain.
It is getting ugly between Jordan and the Palestinian Hamas government, with talks of terrorist plots and smuggling weapons. Looks like there are pressures on Jordan to keep contacts with Hamas at a minimum. Jordan also worries about a Hamas-type electoral surprise, although the decks are clearly stacked against such a possibility. Still, Hamas has its sources of finance. Its leaders recently finished a visit to Kuwait which will probably contribute some money (why else the visit?), and Iran has pledged 100 million dollars. It also looks like Abu Mazin will seek to have more direct control of foreign aid money in an effort at damage control, something that the Hamas government and Arab donors might welcome. Or perhaps the two Palestinian factions are playing the old game of good cop vs. bad cop?
Cheers
Mohammed H G
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