Gulf Inflation, Iran in a Corner

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A study by an associate professor in Economics at a Saudi university has warned of the possible disappearance of the Saudi ‘middle class’, and the increase in poverty. The study attributes the trend to continued high inflation which seems uncontrollable and its impact on living conditions and on society in general. It claims that the endangered middle class represents 90% of Saudi society, an assertion which I strongly doubt, for everyone who lives in a country is part of its society at least in an economic sense, be he a native or an expatriate. This unchecked hyper-inflation, the study warns, will lead to higher unemployment and increased crime. The study partly attributes the trend in higher inflation to the system of ‘exclusive agencies’ that dominates the Saudi import sector. It notes that Saudi membership in WTO ‘might’ require dismantling this monopolistic system of trade.
In fact, in all the Gulf oil states, because of a system of dealerships for imported goods, prices are upward-biased. Increased oil revenues are automatically reflected in higher prices for consumer goods, both luxury items and staples. There is a normal economic reason for an inflow of foreign exchange to push domestic prices up through its impact on liquidity, unless this is sterilized by the monetary authorities. In the Gulf, the foreign exchange surplus (oil income) flows to the public sector, which then pumps it into the private sector through the budgetary process. Apparently the mechanism is speeded up by merchants, presumably monopolistic importers, who anticipate increased public expenditures by the state that controls oil income. Hence prices are raised automatically because of the lack of competition.
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Looks like the regime in Iran is stuck with a new crisis it cannot handle. Regardless of where the British sailors were when taken, whether inside Iraq or inside Iran- the exact location is still debatable- the wise course would have been to release them quickly. It is not likely that the Americans, for example, will release any Iranians they have in Iraq or elsewhere, before they are ready, in exchange for these hapless sailor/soldiers.
Saudi media report that King Abdullah had warned Iranian President Ahmadinejad of underestimating American resolve and the dangers to his country. This is very likely true.
On the other hand, Syrian media, all government-controlled, seem surprisingly pleased with the results of the Riyadh Summit. They must know something we don’t.
Cheers
Mohammed

Saudi King Abdullah vs. Bush: Blame Colonel Qadhafi

When Saudi King Abdullah said that Iraq was under 'illegitimate foreign occupation' he was merely protecting his own royal......flank.

Arab opinion, often ignored in the state-controlled media, had noted that Secretary of State Rice met with Arab ministers on the eve of the Summit. Hence, Libyan Colonel Qadhafi's accusation that the agenda for the Riyadh summit was prepared in Washington resonated with much of public opinion. The Saudis had to show that "it ain't so", that they are independent and do not take their marching orders from anyone: least of all a kaffir (that means infidel to you infidels), albeit a powerful one that keeps the menacing mullahs across the Persian Gulf at bay.
Besides, is there such a thing as a 'legitimate' foreign occupation?????
Cheers
Mohammed

Disappointment in Riyadh: The Camel And the Mouse

“The camel went into labor, and gave birth to a mouse”
This is a very popular Arab saying.

The Arab Summit in Riyadh is over. It was no different from any other Summit of the past twenty some years. What is more, Iraq downgraded it by sending its amiable but ceremonial president instead of the policy-making prime minister. Qadhafi of Libya did not show up, thus robbing it of any possible offbeat path, any diversion from the usual caca de boca.

Looking through the Arab media of various countries, each medium (usually state-owned, state-controlled, state-paid, or state-bullied) claimed that its own leader was pivotal in the success of the summit in achieving nothing. Normally these summits achieve nothing quite effortlessly, but this time they had to work for it.

One solid result was that the Saudi Stock Market Index lost all its gains of the past year on the same day that the Summit adjourned.
Cheers
Mohammed

Arab Media in the Persian Gulf: Hold the Sick Bag

This is a partial translation of an editorial in the conservative Kuwait daily Alseyassah. It was authored by the newspaper’s owner, a Mr. Ahmad Aljarallah. All phrases and words italicized and bracketed are my own.
Warning to the reader: You may need a barf (sick) bag or a bucket (pail) while reading this.
Here goes:
"The Riyadh Summit is An Arab Sunni Summit
BY: Ahmad AlJarallah
“This is not just an Arab Summit, it is a summit of the Custodian of the Two Holy Shrines, King Abdullah who had wanted it to be a Mass (no not the Catholic variety) Sunni Arab Summit, with the full meaning of the term, to put a limit to those who have tried to prove and assert their existence as a minority, through turmoil, fear, and sectarian slaughter as we see today in Iraq, and perhaps in Lebanon and Palestine.

“The Riyadh Summit had to be a Summit of King Abdullah, in the sense and meaning that the Custodian of the Two Holy Shrines deserves, in the sense of being the Sunni Islamic Majority's Marja’iyya (Marja’iyya is a center of religious reference and arbitration in the Shi’a, or Shiites to most of you infidels, faith), and pivotal decision-making (decider?) center of the Sunni majority in the Arab and Islamic Worlds.

“This Sunni deployment of this mass summit has led Iran to relent and ease tensions, and hint at release of a female British soldier. We can be bold and say that now the sectarian issues will be resolved, for it is not in the interests of Iran and the sectarian minority (i.e the Shi’as) that supports it to continue in their open hostility to the Sunni majority and their escalation against the West (i.e: if you don't behave we will sic our friends in the West on you).

“A Sunni Islamic Marja’iyya (he means Saudi King Abdullah) to whom all Arabs and Moslems will refer and defer will put an end to sectarianism…...for there will be no chance for the rise of sectarian tensions in Eastern Saudi Arabia (where most Shi’as live and are oppressed) or Bahrain (majority 70- 75% Shi’as) and the rest of the Gulf, unlike what happened in Iraq and Lebanon…

“The Riyadh Summit was held to edify this Sunni Marja’iyya and make the Kingdom the Supreme Force in the Islamic and Arab World. A Sunni Marja’iyya is needed to counter what others, those influenced by Safawis and Shu’aubis and their claims about the historical events related to the household of the Prophet. (Safawis were a Persian dynasty that fought over Iraq against the Ottoman Turks. Shuaubi is a derogatory Arab term used against all non-Arab and non-Sunni minorities who aspire for more, and especially against oppressed majorities as in ante-bellum Iraq. These were favorite terms used by Iraq’s Ba’athists when they were in power, and they made them popular among pan-Arab nationalists in the Persian Gulf monarchies. They have been revived in the Saudi-financed Arab media in the Gulf region. They have been used in Nazi Goebbelsian fashion in the past and again these days).

“His majesty the Custodian of the Two Holy Shrines has had his own visions of these issues for a long time, and he has acted now before it is too late.”
And more of such grovelling nonesense.....

(In other words: he is calling, and not too shyly, for installing the Saudi King as the equivalent of a Moslem Pope, the match and equivalent of any Shi'a Grand Ayatollh, but with much much more money to.....persuade his flock with. But he is not waiting for him to be officially anointed before kissing his un-anointed temporal royal....er.....hand(?))
Cheers
Mohammed

An Arab April Fools' Wish: The Summit and the Trough

The Arab Summit of Kings, Shaikhs, Presidents and Demi-Gods has Resolved:
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Term-Limit Rule: A leader's term in office shall be limited to eight years, no matter how essential, indispensible or popular his media, his wives, and his sycophants tell him that he is. After April Fools' Day of 2008, every Arab leader who has served 8 years or more will resign, after making sure that an electoral system is in place under the supervision of the United Nations, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, PETA, and Jimmy Carter.
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Hereditary Rule: No son, daughter, brother, or wife (or wives) of an Arab leader shall be allowed to succeed him in office, until after one full term has passed since his departure from office or his demise (which heretofore has been the same thing). That succession shall be only after elections supervised by the above organizations and Jimmy Carter.
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Anti-Incest Rule: An Arab head of state, head of government, head of foam, or just bubble-head, shall refrain from appointing any of his immediate relatives as minister in the government or cabinet he heads- the minimum penalty for defiance of his rule shall be the withholding of black hair dye, without which no Arab leader seems able to function improperly. This punishment can be ratcheted up, starting with with denial of ED medications- and that should keep the culprit from functioning properly or improperly.
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The convened leaders and potentates shall not mention Thomas L. Friedman in conjunction with this summit and its resolution on the Palestinian-Israeli issue.
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The Summiteers resolve never to repeat the term "One Arab nation, with an Eternal Message", not even if they are joking royal princes. Should it be inadvertently repeated, this will have nothing to do with the good old days of Ba'athism, genocide, and Kurdicide.
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Optima are relative, not necessarily mathematical, phenomena: We resolve in our collective wisdom that while this is not the maximum of all minima, it is not the absolute minimum of all maxima either.
Beaux Reves and Cheers
Mohammed

The Arab World: Shame in Egypt, Humor in Bahrain, Confusion in Lebanon, Organized Chaos in Iran.

The Justice Minister of Egypt, who also heads a body called the Supreme Election Committee, has declared that 75.9% of Egypt’s voters have approved constitutional changes proposed by the ruling party of President Mubarak. He said about 27% of eligible voters participated. This is quite a feat, IF true, considering that the voters were given one week after the parliament rubber-stamped the changes. Egypt’s main opposition groups rejected the results of the referendum, calling it a sham marred with irregularities, to say the least. Where were you Jimmy Carter when the Egyptians needed you??

In another joke of the week, the Bahrain parliament, half-appointed by the King, has approved a new anti-corruption law. It requires exposure of the financial positions of people (only some people), presumably high officials (but not too high, eh?). It is called: the “Where Did You Get It” Law, honestly. Parliament approved the measure in five minutes....wow, what would Senators Reid, McConnell et al say to that? The laws punishes anyone who realizes illicit gains, presumably from some public position, with 5 years of prison. This will most likely not affect very high officials, who are of course always very honest, all across the Gulf. Otherwise, who will run things for 5 years?

Libya is boycotting the Arab Summit this week in Riyadh. Colonel Qadhafi said today that the agenda for the summit was set in Washington.

Iraq will be represented at the summit by its President Talibani and Foreign Minister Zibari. Since the Prime Minister makes policy in Iraq, this is sort of downgrading of the summit by the Iraqis, who know that it is a waste of their time.

Lebanon is sending two rival delegates to the summit: one headed by the (Christian) President Lahoud, who is allied with Hizbullah and the Shi’a (Shiite) opposition, the other is headed by the Prime Minister Saniora, who is allied with the Hariris (Sunni) and Jumblatt (Druze). This neatly reflects the almost de facto division of Lebanon into two camps and the paralysis of political life.

Iran’s Ahmadinejad did not attend the last U.N Security Council meeting. That probably robbed the occasion of its only possible source of excitement. But then again, it saved the delegates from having to listen to another long-winded speech. I still haven’t figured out who is doing what in Iran these day.....it seems that it is in a state of organized chaos. Organized but not creative.
Cheers
Mohammed

The Arab Summit and the Mafia: Godfather IV

It looks like the Arab summit this week, in Riyadh, will come short as it aspires to tackle issues ranging from Palestine, to Lebanon, Iraq, and inter-Arab trade (yes, there is some trade). Everyone is eager for it to bring back the glories of past Arab summits.....those were glorious only in their rhetoric.
The last such glorious Arab summit was in Baghdad in the spring of 1990, hosted, led and bullied by Saddam Hussein, only weeks before he swept across Kuwait and stood a few meters from Khafji. After that, Arab leaders gave up all pretenses to statesmanship, friendship, and brotherhood: it took Papa George (H.W, that is) and Mama Maggie (of the stout handbag fame) to stiffen the despotic spines. They proved, these Arab leaders, at that time, that on their own they could not organize an orgy in a brothel.

Not much has changed: it might take Tovarischa Condoleezza (of piano fame) to get some firm resolution on the Palestinian-Israeli issue. And she has been trying. The view on the Arab street, for all its worth, is that she has been coaching the Four (it should be the 5=4+1) in last-minute meetings with their foreign ministers, on how the summit should go.

As for Lebanon.....I don't think so: the President, the Speaker of the Parliament, Hizbullah, and their allies aren't playing the game by the rules envisioned by most Arab leaders. So the mess in that beautiful but unfortunate country will continue with the standoff between the allies and proxies of two generous regional oil states, one ruled by a Shi'a (Shiite) fundamentalist regime and the other ruled by a Sunni fundamentalist-absolute-monarchy-tribal regime.

As for Iraq; fohgettaboutit. Arab countries are still collecting Iraqi reparations through the UN for the 1990-91 war: that includes many Arab countries, including those that, like Jordan, sided with Saddam. Besides, governments calling for political changes in Iraq is similar to calling for political changes in, say, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain or Jordan: it is called interfernce in the internal affairs of a sovereign country, with the unsavory, in some cases quite savory, intention of installing a like-minded regime.

So, it will be back to Palestine-Israel: and that cannot be seriously solved without a clear resolution of two issues, the pre-1967 land and the status of the 1948 refugees (are any of them around?). Even if the Arabs adopt the old 2002 initiative (a.k.a Thomas Friedman-Saudi King Abdullah plan), it would not amount to a hill of beans without a clear resolution of these two issues. These two tough points will outlive a Hamas government.

The real achievement of this summit is that it will formalize the petro-dollar era: the Saudi monarchy will finally become the anointed acknowledged dominant Arab power. For the first time in modern history, one family will dominate the Arab World, backed by a vast, bought and paid for, media network of newspapers and satellite television stations. Unfortunately it won't be the Medici family, not even the Borgias. Which means that we are back to the stagnant era of pre-Gulf War and Pre-Iraq: R.I.P reform and democratic aspirations- we will shelve those until oil prices go down. Or until the Arab Barzinis, Tattaglias, and Moe Green decide to gang up on the new leaders. Then, eveyone will go to the mattress again, with Fat Clemenza.

Still, we will be nice and, like all the Arab media, we will call it a success: at least in terms of measured, wise, yet tough rhetoric. Very self-satisfying.
Cheers
Mohammed

Jordanian Inquisition, Egypt Frowns on Humor

(This item appeared earlier on my website)
Jordan and Shi'ism:
Saudi-owned Alarabiya TV reports (3/23) that Jordanian authorities have expelled 23 Iraqis from the country for "spreading Shi'ism". The report also claims that an investigation (a favorite Arab term for a serious interrogation where hands and fists are often used) has been conducted with six members of an Islamic movement "accused of 'Shi'ism". The six "confessed" to having received religious teachings from a Shi'ite activist.
The report claims that Jordanian authorities have called in several 'families' for interrogation, in order to find out about their "religious and political loyalties".
So far, there have been no reports of any burnings at the stake in Jordan, and there may never be.....since this was a purely European invention used mostly to counter the spread of heresy and the persistence of Judaism.

Egyptian Humor:
Egyptians are a humorous people, perhaps the only funny people in the whole Arab World, one that often uses self-deprecating humor to overcome life's hardships. Normally an Egyptian, any Egyptian, even Ayman al-Zawahiri or Husni Mubarak (I know the latter may be a stretch), has more humor than a basket of 21 Arabs representing all other Arab countries (to use an economic yardstick). Therefore it was sad to read this week that the Egyptian government has banned a lecture on "humor", merely because the lecturer belonged to an opposition group. Scartch Husni Mubarak from the list up there. Now most Arab authorities, especially the Jordanians (see the above item) will never have to cancel any such event, because there is no serious humor in most of these countries, at least none that we can take seriously.

So, both the freedom of religion and the freedom of humor are alive and well in the 'moderate' allied states of Egypt and Jordan. Now about Saudi Arabia, that other cornerstone of the axis of democracy and moderation in the New Middle East.......

Cheers
Mohammed

Iran Faces Operation Sting, Saudis Seek a Cup

(This item was originally posted on my website)
Iranian Sting:
Arab media are buzzing with excitement, widely quoting a Russian press report that the United States has set April 6th as the date to attack Iranian installations. In the past, media expectations have ranged from merely surgical attacks on suspected nuclear sites to WWII-style carpet bombing of the infra-structure. The farther one gets from the Persian Gulf, the more limited the operation gets according to local media, perhaps reflecting reduced tensions and other baggage. Most Gulf media have fully expected an armageddon-style assault that will put an end to the mullah theocracy...but that is clearly a severe case of wishful thinking. Lately, though, some hawkish newspapers have been playing a dirge, lamenting the possibility of an unlikely Iranian-American detente that could divide up the area into spheres of influence, save lives, as well as, oy vey (that would mean heaven forbid in this context), cement the structural changes in Iraqi politics. On va voir.

The reports claim the raids will last from dawn until dusk (and it ain't even Ramadan yet), and that they will target at least 20 'secret' Iranian nuclear and military sites, using missiles and bombers. The operation is supposed to delay Iran's nuclear program by 5 to 7 years. Called 'The Sting', the operation will not be a scam-within-a-scam, and will not star Paul Newman and Robert Redford, or Robert Shaw. It will, however, be in the thick of Prohibition, so to speak. Hopefuly, this time the operation will be based on more than offshore intelligence from some Iranian exiles. And no spectacular 'slam dunk' this time, eh?
Whatever happened to the genteel old days, with their genteel and discreet good old ways.....as in 'Operation Ajax' of 1953? Imagine the insult of those genteel methods, using a Greek name for a Tehran operation. Unless it was innocently named for a cleanser. But then, hey, either way it worked...for a quarter of a century exactly.

Sadr City:
While American officials hint at, and the media stress, that the operation in Sadr City is friendlier than previously thought, Muqtada al-Sadr is grumbling about American occupation again. He has complaind of a campaign of lies and rumors spread by the occupation. Perhaps he wants to stay in practice....he needs his own unpredictable and violent Cato, like a chubby young Clauseau in Mesopotamia. Or perhaps he is content to see American armor pummel the Sunni Jihadists on the outskirts of Baghdad and beyond, but still needs to keep al-Maliki on his toes.

Saudi Arabia and the Cup:
The Saudi Soccer Federation has done it again. They just fired their Brazilian coach, and hired another Brazilian coach. The Suadis have been hiring and firing foreign football (soccer) coaches at an amazing rate over the past two decades. The average tenure for a coach for the past decade has been about one year or less: that is not long enough for him to know every player's name, let alone convert from Catholicism. With all that oil money, you'd think they would be able to buy a cup....a World Cup, an Asian Cup, a Gulf Cup.....a Starbucks latte...any cup. But they are not alone- the older Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lost ground in sports for ten years now. Newcomers like UAE, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain are the leaders- perhaps because their sports bureaucracies have not had time to become as corrupt, not yet. Perhaps it is time to fire the royal princes who always run the sports federations in these states like feudal fiefdoms, and keep the Brazilian coaches??
Cheers
Mohammed

The Middle East's Fuzzy Math, Swordsmen of Arabia

Iraq's Wars:
Iraqi, and Arab, media reports that there is a mini inter-Sunni civil war going on in al-Anbar province. Al-Anbar is the hotbed of the insurgency that rejects the results of the Iraqi elections. It is a multi-faceted insurgency (this word, insurgency, by the way, is a politically correct, polite, and now Washington-sanctioned name for a violent terrorist campaign that blows up civilians and chops off heads in front of the camera). It looks like al-Qaeda in Iraq has been pushing hard to enforce its new Islamic Emirate (no oil their, though), and has been stepping on some big tribal tails, or toes, depending on the particular tribe in question. Some tribal sheikhs are objecting to this usurpation of their authority, and some heads have been rolling, literally.
It is also very likely that large amounts of money have been changing hands, just to bolster the resolve and the backbone of these tribal sheikhs. It would make the 'resistance' much more palatable inside Iraq and in the West if it could get rid of the political and cultural baggage of al-Qaeda and its Salafi allies.

Muqtada al-Sadr has been cooperating after all, in his own volatile way, with the 'surge', a.k.a the Baghdad Security Plan. The Iraqis and the coalition are negotiating with the hairy cherub now to open a manned security zone in al-Sadr city.

Playing Second Fiddle:
While Iran's Ahmadinejad was flying into Riyadh for a Big Two meeting on Lebanon, Palestine, and sectarianism, Egyptian officials were busy publicizing President Mubarak's role in the region, especially his contacts with Assad of Syria- these would be the Little Two of the new Middle East equation. So, the Big Two meet in Riyadh, the newly anointed capital of the Arab World, while the Little Two meet nowhere: they exchange calls and letters.
Apparently the Egyptians are not happy with their new role as second-fiddle to the petro-potentates. The stagnant country ruled by (Leonid) Mubarak is not nearly as pivotal in regional policy-making as it was under his bold predecessors, Nasser and Sadat, when it was the undisputed Arab leader.
Speaking of second fiddles, an editorial in the Syrian official daily Tishrin (all newspapers are official in Syria, as in most Arab states- in some states they are merely semi-official, whatever that means), emphasized the deep roots and durability of Syrian-Iranian relations, dating back a quarter century to the Iran-Iraq War. This was probably a response to publicized attempts to wean Syria away from its alliance with Iran.

Libya will not attend the Arab Summit in Riyadh this month. The Libyans are using a procedural point, in that the last Arab summit had decided on Sharm El-Shaikh (does not say the sharm of which shaikh) in Egypt as a permamant venue, and that only a whole Arab summit can change that, not an agreement among the Saudis and Egyptians. They probably have a valid point, if they are into this sort of hair-splitting.

Fuzzy Arab Math:
A summit of seven Moslem countries will also be held in Mecca, after the Arab summit. This meeting will join leaders of what is dubbed 'The Sunni Alliance', including Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia and Indonesia- it has pointedly left out Iran, which makes for a much less interesting, albeit less contentious, summit.
The Middle East, especially the Arab part of it, is undergoing a flurry of summits these days of various groups and myriad cross-alliances. It is becoming mind-boggling, if you like cliches. It is almost impossible for most people to keep track of the many varieties of these multi-layered, sometimes almost incestous, Arab alliances that often cannibalize each other: the 22, the 7, the 6, the 4, the 6+2 (is it not easier just to say the 8?), the Big 2, the Little 2. Some would say that we should add one more to each category, since they contend that the United States is either an invisible partner, or is actually pulling all the strings of these groups: the 22, the 7, the 6, the 4, the 6+2 (that would be eight), etc. Then we should talk of the 22+1 (=23), the 7+1 (=8), the 4+1 (=5), the 6+1 (=7), the 6+2+1 (is that 9?). Or perhaps we should put the Arab cart behind the horse's behind and just say 1+22, 1+7,....etc. And we haven't started talking of the Maghreb (that is North Africa) yet. Game theory anyone?

Headless in Arabia:
The Alhayat Daily had an interesting interview with Saudi Aarbia's top swordsman, that is the state executioner who lops off heads in public squares. He does that every Friday after the noon prayers, just before his audiences head home for the traditional weekend lunch of roast camel and braised lamb, with all the fixin's. The man claims he has chopped off 3500 heads in the past quarter century- and he is not the only executioner in the country. He claims that he once chopped off the heads of twenty convicts in one day, and he might be telling the truth: records show that in one day in 1989, 16 Kuwaiti Shi'as convicted of security crimes were beheaded in Riyadh- and their families are reported to have heard about it in the usual fashion, from the media. Add to that the usual assortment of foreign laborers, vengeful abused Asian housemaids, and those accused of witchcraft or having intercourse with the djinn, and the number could easily go up to twenty in one day.
Last week, international human rights groups complained bitterly when Saudi authorities executed four Sri Lankan laborers for robbery, then left their headless bodies on display in public for some time. The groups claim that the hapless headless workers were denied legal council and subjected to beatings while in custody. It is not clear how many of those the Ace Swordsman himself dispatched. Does he get a Golden Noose on retirement? I think the man is angling for a Saudi Purple Heart.

Any MLB team looking for a good pitcher with strong arms and an awesome resume these days can contact the London-based Saudi newspaper al-Hayat.
Cheers
Mohammed

Sunnis, Shi'as, al--Qaeda and Despots for Democracy

Absolute Democracy:
In her statement to a Senate committe yesterday, Secretary Condoleezza Rice said that the administration is mobilizing allies, what she called the GCC+2 (that would be the six Persian Gulf monarchies plus poor relations Egypt and Jordan) to 'support embattled democracies' in the region. She rightly listed the embattled democracies as Iraq, the Palestinian Territory, and Lebanon. I wonder if any of the senators noted the irony of mobilizing all these absolute monarchs, potentates, and life-time dictators to support nascent democracies that they not-so-secretly wish would just go away.

The Iraqi government has sent out invitations to a regional meeting in Baghdad later in March. It has invited all her six immediate neighbors as well as the premanent members of the UN Security Council, the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Countries, possibly the EU, etc. It is not yet known if such NGO's as al-Qaeda, The Salafi Islamic Heritage Revival, the KKK, Jean-Marie Le Pin, and the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy will also be included.
The meeting will be watched mainly because it will bring the United States and Iran face to face in Iraq, to discuss Iraq. Perhaps it will be like watching Rhett and Scarlett: the rest, especially the Arab representatives, will be like those faceless extras of long ago. Jaw jaw beats war war, but don't hold your breath for a spectacular breakthrough.

In another possibly positive development, Iraqi Vice President Tareq al-Hashimi, will visit Tehran in early March. Al-Hashimi is the highest ranking Sunni Arab in the Iraqi government.

Iran, the Shi'as, and McCarthy:
The regime in Iran clearly presents a threat to U.S interests in the Middle East. There definitely is a more intense and open rivalry now for influence in the vacuous (no, not a typo) region between Washington and Tehran. It seems that the twenty Arab states are out of the game, mere footnotes in this struggle. True, they do make the right noises occasionally (for example: Egypt and Jordan), and they do use their financial clout (Saudi Arabia), but they have lost the initiative in their own region for some time now.
Yet Washington seems to be committing one serious mistake: it is giving the impression of condoning, at least tacitly, the revival of a virulent anti-Shi'a sectarian campaign across the Middle East. At least that is the impression Arab media would give their audiences. Most Arab headlines in the Middle East are not about 'anti-Iranian' alliances, but of 'anti-Shi'a' alliances, or alliances to stem the 'Shi'a tide'. Except there is no such tide, it is a myth, as much as the imminent threat of a Communist takeover of the United States was in the early 1950s. Several Arab governments, three of them among those GCC+2 mentioned above, have stoked this dangerous sectarian fire with some irresponsible public statements at the very highest levels of government.
The goal is understandable: to reduce and stem Iranian influence. The tactic used over the past several months has been Machiavillian and short-sighted, if anything. It has put the non-Iraqi Shi'a Arabs, most of them in the Gulf and Lebanon, in a few cases they form a plurality or a majority of the population, under suspicion, and in the cross hairs of Salafi/Wahhabi Jihadists and other intolerant groups. And it pushes them to seek the safety and security of their co-religionists, even if they speak a different language. It encourages the Pakistani alumni of Saudi-financed Madrassah's to intensify their ongoing murderous sectarian campaign against the Shi'as of their country. It also plays nicely into the ideology of al-Qaeda and its Pashtun-dominated Taliban allies, who now seem to have all but established a new Emirate, with extensive training camps and all, along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border- perhaps with the blessings of the ISI. It is almost as if the results of the post 9/11 war effort are being reversed.

The Odd Visit:
Iran's Ahmadinejad sure knows how to improve his image around the world, he knows how to pick them. He is now visiting General Omar Hassan al-Basheer, leader of Sudan since the 1980's. al-Basheer is one of the most detested among Arab leaders, which is no mean achievement. Perhaps Mahmoud will take the time to visit Darfur, then head across the border into Chad, where Angelina Jolie is holding court at a refugee camp.
While in Sudan, he got carried away again, calling the 'zionists', a.k.a Israel, an 'impersonification of Satan'. For good measure, he also attacked the usual suspects: the United States and Britain. On the positive hand, Ahmadinejad is flying to Riyadh to meet with the Saudi king, probably to hash out things over the Lebanese and Palestinian impasses. The Saudis, cautious and diplomatic devils that they are, are not likely to provide him with a public forum to embarrass them or his own country.
Cheers
Mohammed

Al-Qaeda Coming Back from the Cold, Iran and the Sunni Crescent, Jews in Egypt

Iran and the Bomb:
The Israeli daily Ha'aretz reported that Israel has received permission from three Arab states on the Persian Gulf to use their airspace in case she decides to bomb Iran. Qatar, UAE, and Oman were mentioned. The secretary general of the Arab League denied the charges.
Question: why single out these three Gulf states that do not have common borders with Israel? Any flight from Israel to the Gulf would have to cross the mother of all Arab airspaces, over Saudi Arabia.

Seymour M. Hersh reports in The New Yorker that the administration is planning to attack Iran- that it is folllowing a two-pronged strategy: it is building a case and trying to provoke the Iranian regime. He claims that a case is being made through revelations of Iranian arms shipments to the Shi'a militias. These weapons were reported by officials to have killed as many as 170 American troops in Iraq. So, then, tell us: whose weapons killed the rest, the other 2,900 brave young American men and women? And, at least as important: whose money has been funding the Salafi Jihadist groups responsible for those other 2900 killings and many more thousands of maimings?

The Al-Qaeda Embrace:
There is strong evidnce, only some of it anecdotal, of a mutant al-Qaeda that might fit for the time being with the goals of a mutating Arab strategy. Arab strategy noawadays means Saudi strategy. Al-Qaeda's resurgence, now clearly gathering steam, goes beyond its bases in al-Anbar province of Iraq, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The dormant war in Algeria seems to be reviving, with a new twist that points to new Saudi influence: there is much talk about the Shi'as and Shi'ism among Algeria's Salafis these days, and the Saudi-owned media like Alarabiya TV and Asharq Alawsat daily have echoed these grumblings. This in a country that has hardly any Shi'as and hardly knows anything, or cares, about that sect. Another area of new resurgence of al-Qaeda is peaceful, secular Morocco, where Jihadist activity has been picking up in recent months. This could be devastating for the economy of Morocco, which depends heavily on tourism.

A recent and bizzare twist involves some troubles in Yemen, where the Saudi-owned media now claim that a Zaidi (Shi'as) revolt is destabilising the country- which would mean the necessity of making peace with that country's extensive al-Qaeda network (remember the USS Cole?). One Saudi media outlet even reported that Iraqi and Iranian agents were uncovered as part of a plot to establish, get this : "a Persian state" in Yemen. Must be the desire to tap all that chewable green qat.
But it gets even more bizzare: the same Saudi media reported recently that some Islamic shaikhs in the Comorro Islands, off Eastern Africa, have publicly condemned, presumably to the very same Saudi media, attempts to spread Shi'ism in that country. Even in Lebanon, the normally secular and cosmopolitan Sunnis are being targeted. New, shadowy Salafi/Wahhabi groups are sprouting faster than the petro-dollars and the Hariri billions can finance them. Which means that, like in Iraq, the most educated Sunnis, among others, will come under unbearable pressure. Which would mean that now both secular Sunnis and secular Shi'as who, along with the Maronite Christians, formed the backbone of Lebanese stabilty, will have to take sides or leave the country. Unless they are willing to Saudi-ize or Irani-ize.

Not only Seymour Hersh, but other evidence over the past few months point to a possible re-emergence of a tri-partite Saudi-Jihadist alliance, with the United States as the third, perhaps somewhat reluctant, partner. But will al-Qaeda be happy back in the Wahhabi bosom of its genesis? And for how long?

A meeting of foreign ministers of seven mainly Sunni Moslem states was held in Islamabad Sunday. The Arab League claimed that the meeting was to discuss the "Arab peace plan", and did not mean to exclude large Shi'a states, like Iran and Iraq. The meeting included such members of the Sunni Crescent as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, as well as al-Qaeda-hosting Pakistan and European-aspiring Turkey.

Retro in Egypt:
In Egypt, the secretay general of the Higher Council on Antiquity, is bringing charges against a private school in Cairo- because part of its curriculum material claims that Jews helped build the Pyramids, and that they were persecuted (shocking,this last assertion). I could have sworn that the Holy Quran also says that Jews were persecuted in Egypt, with the staff of Moses changing into a snake and all that, although it does not mention the pyramids. The man claims that the pyramids were completely built by Egyptians, Charlton Heston and Cecil B. de Mille notwithstanding, and that they considered it a "project of national pride", which is a new PC take on an old slavery issue.
Cheers
Mohammed

Saudis Unleash CACA, Sex Psych War in Iraq, Egyptian Madness

Iraq:
An Iraqi woman, who had warrants for her arrest, claims that she was raped by security officers, presumably Shi'as. The woman was arrested during a raid on a known insurgent house. The Sunni politicians quickly jumped in to support her claim, and seem to see in her some kind of a rallying cry, an opportunity. The Arab World has a long history of rallying to a captive woman's call for help, but Arab politicians have also often used women in this sense in order to enrage the 'street'. The Arab (Sunni) media have interviewed her, and the Shi'a media have noted that she was acting her part in a psychological war, that she was fully made up for the interview (on Aljazeera and Alarabiya TV), that she is being used as a pawn in a sectarian conflict. The Iraqi government has released hospital test results showing that she was not sexually assaulted, but some Sunni Arab media claim that tests show that she was raped. American military spokesmen, who accompany Iraqi unites on missions, are silent for now, pending an investigation. In any case, this will have no impact on the ongoing Battle for Baghdad.

Flying Pigs of Arabia:
Saudi Arabia's News Agency reports (Feb. 20) that the Saudi cabinet, headed by the king, has approved a 'National Strategy for the Protection of Honesty and Combatting Corruption'- now that is a mouthful. The report claimed that all officials, including the high officials will be held responsible for their actions. Which presumably means that heretofore they have not been held responsible for anything.
A new National Anti-Corruption Authority- the acronym NACA sounds very appropriate here- will follow up on the implementation of, what else, anti-corruption measures. A reminder: pigs never fly, not even in Arabia, where le jambon is not kosher to start with. Attached to the strategy is a measure that would restrict the employment of non-Saudis in the jewelry stores and workshops- although it is not clear how this would combat corruption. I could name a few more relevant measures, but then again, they will never be implemented. Besides, the head of NACA (this is a really easy acronym and sounds quite.....catchy) would lose at least his job if he follows my advice, which he won't.

Interesting Egyptian Vignette:
An economics professor at Egypt's Hilwan University started class one bright Egyptian morning by writing on the blackboard (they are still black over there): B'ism America Al-Azeema, In The Name of America the Great, instead of the usual Bismillah, In the Name of Allah. Then he refused to open a discussion with students on his strange behavior, instead asking for written questions, which he answered promptly, to the further outrage of his students. In his answers, he stated that he believed in the American Faith, and that he was free to choose his own religion, which further infuriated most of his students. The professor has been arrested and sent to a psychiatric hospital. The president of the university, to his credit, has suspended judgement, stating that the man might be sick and not responsible for his action.
Cheers
Mohammed

Muqtada al-Sadr Plays Waldo, Allawi Goes Global- Uncle Sam, The Ayatollahs and Gulf ED

Iraq: so, what else is new?:
Muqtada Al-Sadr has gone AWOL. While a U.S. military spokesman confirms that the mysterious Shi'a leader has gone to Iran, a Sadrista spokesman has denied that assertion, claiming that Muqtada is at his home in Najaf. An Iraqi official now claims that Muqtada is on a visit to Iran, just a normal visit. (This is increasingly resembling the Anna Nicole Smith paternity confusion). Some in the Arab, as well as American, media speculate that he is just laying low, waiting for the 'surge' to run its course. Of course, there is always an outside chance that we could all be pleasantly surprised and the much-maligned surge may succeed. But then again, that all depends on the ultimate goals of the surge, just how modest or how audacious they are.

Meanwhile, London based daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi reports that former Interim Prime Minister Ayyad Allawi has renewed his proposed plan, yes again, to stabilize Iraq. Not surprisingly, the plan calls, again, for a 'unity government' and declaring martial law for two years. That would mean suspending the constitution. The Shi'a alliance quickly rejected the plan as extra-constitutional, which it is. So far, the Kurds have not dignified it with a response. In fact the proposal is way extra-constitutional, a retro plan, like totally Ba'athist, and the ruling coalition noted that it would require arbitrarily undoing the electoral process, i.e, defying the will of the electorate that risked life and limb to vote (remember the purple-stained fingers raised proudly in Baghdad and at the Capitol in Washington?). An Allawi ally stated that Allawi presented his proposal to the United States government, the Arab League, the OIC, and the Gulf Coopertaion Council- just to make sure that it will be rejected by the ruling coalition and probably by most Iraqis. It is not clear if Allawi consulted with his elected government before approaching unelected foreign governments and potentates with his plan- but then, hey, this is the Arab Middle East.

Uncle Sam, The Mullahs, and the Salafis:
The US will send a third aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf, an unprecedented move that will literally choke the narrow waterway. Many in the Middle East interpret this as a sure sign that the Bush administration plans to strike at Iran. This, of course may be part of the fog and smoke of war. Some claim the U.S. is already involved in operations against Iran, that it is arming and financing groups opposed to the clerical regime in Tehran as a retaliation for Iranian involvement in Iraq. Still, outside the Arab World, there seems to be a shift toward a concensus opinion that there will be no war. Within the Arab region, the consencus is for war, with some in the media in the Persian Gulf states doing some saber rattling, rattling the American saber of course, since their own sabers are miniscule on account of intestinal and moral ED. The vulnerable Gulf states worry about being caught in the violence of a new war, although, oddly enough, the most vociferous proponents of a U.S. attack on Iran are prominent Salafi Jihadist types in some of the GCC countries that border Iraq. These are the soul mates of Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Perhaps this is to avenge the Iranian support of the U.S invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 that led to deposing the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, or perhaps it is a case of 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend, for now'.

You Figure This One Out:
An Iraqi newspaper reports that the Israeli government has advised all Israeli citizens in Iraq to leave that country and not return.
Cheers
Mohammed

Al-Zarqawi Redux, Islamic Fault Lines, Ethanol and Political Methane

Alfayhaa Iraqi Satellite TV reports (Feb. 12) that a Gulf GCC-Iraqi 'Council' is being discussed, and may be established next March. The report said the goal of the council is to promote Iraqi-Gulf relations, and reduce 'outside' intervention that 'tends to destabilize the region and affect its security'. The last one is a tall order, since everybody seems to interfere in Iraqi affairs these days, whether in the form of sending arms for the militias, or sending arms, money and men for the Jihadist Salafi terrorists. Then there is the other ultimate intervention: 'demands' that the Iraq constitution be changed- these demands are mostly by Arab countries that either do not have a constitution or trample theirs if they have one.

The Jordanian Salafi terrorist Ahmad Fadhil Nazzal al-Khalayleh, a.k.a Abu Musa'ab Al-Zarqawi, succeeded in one of his two main goals. He wanted to establish an Islamic 'Emirate' in Iraq, and that is not likely to be realized, not without oil, although the jury is still out. His other goal was publicized in his shocking famous message , displaying a breath-taking hatred of the Shi'as (Shi'ites) in a style reminiscent of the Third Reich. The Zarqawi letter of 2005 refers to the Shi'ites as "the overwhelming obstacle, the lurking snake, the crafty and malicious scorpion, the spying enemy, and the penetrating venom." It blames Shi'ites for "patent polytheism," "worshipping at graves,", "circumambulating shrines," and "insulting the mothers of the believers and the elite of this nation (I guess these elite would be the Sunni potentates?)."
He succeeded in pushing his expressed opinion of the Shi'as (Shiites) toward acceptance by the mainstream Sunni media, mostly along the sectarian fault lines in the Persian Gulf region where anti-Shi'a feelings have always been barely below the surface. The electoral rise of the Shi'as in Iraq and the growth of the violent militias in Baghdad as a counter to the Jihadist/Ba'athist terror, have exacerbated sectarian tensions in other countries, mainly the Gulf states and Lebanon, where the Shi'as form either a substantial minority, a plurality (Lebanon), or a majority (Bahrain). Surprisingly, the bulk of the Arab intellectual elite in the Gulf, or whatever stands for an intellectual elite, have lined up along sectarian fault lines. Free, perhaps imperfect, elections in Iraq, the freest in Arab history, are dismissed with calls for more 'sharing' of power. The demands are for more sharing of power, but only in Iraq. Perhaps there can be more 'sharing' of power along the shores of the Gulf and the Red Sea as well.

Speaking of sharing, the The Society for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, the powerful para-military, well sort of para-something, Islamic religious police of Saudi Arabia is cracking again on Valentine's Day. Their bearded, dour, visages can be seen in the markets, malls, restaurants, and wherever things are sold, making sure there are no pink, red, white or black hearts, no signs of celebration. Do these shaggy Mutawwa'een religious police know about Saint Valentine? That should make them redouble their efforts.
And wasn't that old King Abdullah himself in the midst of a love-fest in Mecca the other day? Weren't those pink and red roses at the kingly conference in Mecca that sealed the Palestinian accord to share the cake of power and aid money between Hamas and Fatah last week? Wasn't that Abu Mazzen kissing the "be my Valentine" Hamas leaders at the center of la vie en rose at Mecca? It looked like the Saudi royals and the Palestinian neo-potentates were celebrating Valentine's Day early, and in Mecca of all places.

Reports indicate that there is unrest in Mexico over the increased price of corn, a main staple for people in that country and in many other less developed countries. One culprit is the push for the use Ethanol as replacement for fossil fuels. Ethanol competes with the world's hungry for corn. Speaking of Ethanol, fuels, and gases: the Arab World has been blessed with abundant petroleum and natural gas, but its leaders have also been blessed with an abundance of that 'other natural gas': Methane, a.k.a CH4. The web site (ghgonline.org) claims that: "Global man-made methane emissions are estimated to total about 320 million tonnes each year". That is a lot of energy wasted in our part of the world. The U.S. EPA estimates that "Methane is emitted from a variety of both human-related (anthropogenic) and natural sources. Human-related activities include fossil fuel production, animal husbandry, enteric fermentation and manure management).......... and waste management." Interesting stuff.

Cheers
Mohammed

Oprah and The Preppy Wahhabis, Iraq's Axis of Evil, A Persian Gulf Political Casserole

Oprah recently started a 'prep' school for select poor girls in South Africa. This admirable project is by nature centered on a selective group of girls, and unfortunately most of them will eventually end up in places where they are least needed: Western Europe or North America. But that will come much later, after they are educated and trained, with the media attention gone. Unlike that other source of free 'education' for the Moslim poor in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and for the Moslem middle classes in the West- the Wahabi oil-financed madrassas. Madrassa in Arabic simply means 'school', a term that has been attached to the largely Saudi-financed fundamentalist religious schools run by Wahabi/Salafi shaikhs around the world. That was the genesis of the Taliban movement, the word 'Taliban' being plural of 'Talib', a seeker of knowledge, a student. That might also explain why three countries quickly recognized the Taliban regime after it overthrew the bickering Afghan government: Saudi Arabia (the money bag), Pakistan (its notorious ISI being the mentor), and the United Arab Emirates (not clear how the moderate and cosmopolitan UAE fit into this axis of .....goodnes?).
In any case, Oprah's African girls should turn out fine, unless she hires Wahhabi teachers for her school, in which case they will turn into little preppy Wahhabettes.

Terrorist bombers struck in a Shi'a area in central Baghdad (the Sadriya district) today, killing more than 130 civilians and wounding hundreds more. Two days earlier, another terror bombing in the Shi'a town of al-Hilla killed 73 people. Iraq's government spokesman said a ton of explosives was loaded on a truck, and he hinted that the terrorists may heve sneaked into Iraq from Syria. Initial Arab reaction was calm and neutral.....headlines reported about 'bombings in Baghdad, many dead and wounded'. No condemnation so far: perhaps they are waiting for the now almost inevitable bloody retaliation by the militias before condemning....condemning the retaliation not the initial act itself. This was not labeled a 'sectarian' massacre, even though the victims were Shi'as and the modus operandi of the mass killings clearly pointed to the Wahabi/Salafi/Ba'athist axis of evil. It becomes 'sectarian' only when the Shi'a militias commit their own bloody atrocities.
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistant, meanwhile, called for calm and for avoiding doing anything that would raise sectarian tensions. Al-Sistani criticized those who issue fatwas against other sects and try to fan the flames of sectarianism among Moslems. Meanwhile, Salih al-Mutlak, head of the Sunni National Dialog Front, complained about police raiding his house and arrested two of his guards.
It also looks like tensions are rising in the northern city of Kirkuk, where about 20 people were killed in car bombings this week. Things will get much worse in Kirkuk, before a referendum on the future of the city that must be held this year.

The national intelligence estimate (NIE) on Iraq has finally corrected, perhaps modified is the word, the administration's rhetoric on who supports the insurgents in Iraq. While it noted that Iran supports and arms Shi'a militias, it downplayed its role in the terrorist insurgent campaign. It did not, however tackle the issue of the sources of the huge funds that keep that Jihadist/Ba'athist campaign going.

Iraq has decided to expel the Mujahideen Khaq, an Iranian socialist-Islamic opposition group that has been in Iraq for two over decades. The group had recently published a 'list' of 31,000 Iraqis it claimed were paid agents of the clerical regime in Tehran. It has also claimed that Iran is supplying weapons to Iraqi 'groups'. In doing this, it apparently broke a condition not to meddle in internal Iraqi affairs.

Kuwait's royal chief of the National Security Council, their own Rice or Hadley, or Kissinger if we go back in history, stated in an interview on Alarabiya TV that he is a 'liberal Islamist' and that he has 'good relations' with Jihadists, who are not necessarily terrorists. He said that 'anyone who is not an Islamist is not a Moslem'.... whatever that means. Sounds like logical contortionism to me, a veritable political casserole, but then perhaps he is trying to straddle a thin political line here.
Cheers
Mohammed

Battle for Baghdad, How Arabs Radicalized Iraq

The Battle of Baghdad:
The picture in Iraq got a little muddier this week, just before the Ashoura commemorative on Monday. According to some Arab media reports, the fighting around Najaf involved a mysterious group of Sunnis, including Al-Qaeda, as well as a fringe Shi'a group called Jund al-Samaa', Soldiers of Heaven. This would be quite an oddity, to have Al-Qaeda cooperating with fringe Shi'a groups, since the Wahabis consider all Shi'as heretics. It is almost as unlikely as Nazis and Jews making common cause. The Iraqi satellite TV station AlFayhaa quotes a Najaf security official that this was actually a wholly al-Qaeda operation, and that the name 'Soldiers of Heave' is a fake title used to imply that Shi'as are involved. The reports indicate that they had planned to murder top Shi'a clergy and kill as many pilgrims to the shrines as possible. They were also reported to be quite well armed, not your usual low-budget Al-Qaeda suicide operation.

It looks like the Iraqi government, and the United States, may get their wish in ejecting the Sadrist al-Mahdi militias from the streets of Baghdad, thus avoiding a messy confrontation. Yet the continued terror bombings by Sunni groups may encourage support for splinter Shi'a groups. This might weaken the Sadrists in the capital, but at a cost: the splinter groups will have no part of the political process, and they will be more likely to take the law into their own hands. As long as the Wahabi/Salafi terror bombings continue, there will be some popular gravitation among the Shia's to these militias.
Some Arab media, esepcially the Saudi media, are unhappy with the Sadrist shift back toward the political process: they were hoping for a battle that would destroy al-Mahdi army, thus clouding the situation in Baghdad. Now that battle may not come, which is a good thing because nobody should want all of Baghdad to look like Haifa Street with splinter Shi'a militia groups fighting Iraqi and American forces.
Interesting how the situation in Iraq is now being summarized as the "Battle of Baghdad". That is because the rest of Iraq is already divided along sectarian/ethnic lines. Baghdad is the main point of contention now, and perhaps Kirkuk will be later this year.
Those who criticize the regionalism proposals for Iraq, including U.S government officials, are probably trying to assuage allied Arab feelings. Iraq is in fact divided into semi-autonomous regions whether we like it or not: the Kurds are firmly in control in the North, the Shi'as are firmly in control in the South, and the Sunnis can control the West unmolested if they would not carry on suicide bombings in other parts of the country.

How The Arabs Radicalized Iraq:
The Arab regimes, and their elites, bear much responsibility for the ongoing disintegration of Iraq. The Arab media complain about American ineptness in handling the post-Ba'ath situation, yet they and their rulers have done much to exacerbate the sectarian tensions that feed the situation in Iraq. They have refused to deal on an equal basis with an elected Iraqi government, and their monarchs and dictators have made inflammatory statements about the dangers of the Shi'as gaining majority rule. King Abdullah of Jordan started the ball rolling with his irresponsible, and plagiarized, warning about a "Shi'a Crescent", then Egypt's aging President-For-Life Mubarak stated to the press that "Shi'as were more loyal to Iran than to their own countries". Saudi state-employed Wahabi sheikhs started issuing fatwas reiterating their well-publicized views that the Shi'as are heretics who are out to convert and control. Now we have the seeds of a regional sectarian conflict. Old derogatory sectarian terms like Safawis and Shoubis, often used by the Ba'ath in the past, are being dusted up and used to refer to the Shi'as on a daily basis by mainstream Arab newspapers in the Persian Gulf monarchies. These terms were last used by the same media during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when the Gulf states were cheering Saddam on, acclaiming him a hero.

Now the regional media, as usual echoing their absolute rulers, are calling for a reversal of Iraq: reinstate the old gas-throwing, chemical-using army that murdered Kurds, the same army that invaded Kuwait and was poised to take over the rest of their oil fields. They want an old and reliable military man, i.e a Sunni, installed as a benevolent dictator: perhaps they guess that they can easily buy off such a man, even though they could not completely buy off Saddam. They have a mind-set that does not accept change: they still believe that the Americans run everything in Iraq, that we can change the government at will. Just like the older generation, our parents, always believed that the Brits ran the Middle East overtly or covertly, which they did for a while. Perhaps they should stop watching novellas, or is it Looney Toons, and switch their television sets to the hearings on C-Span occasionally to appreciate the struggle that is raging within the United States about the Iraq situation.

Love and Tribalism in Arabia- The Tragedy of Fatima and Mansoor:
Al-arabia TV reports that a Saudi appeals court has ruled that the court-ordered divorce of a young couple is valid, even though both the man and woman, and their children want to remain married. The original case was brough to court by the wife's male relatives, her brothers, who claimed that they have discovered that the husband was not 'tribally compatible' with the family. The couple had escaped after the first ruling but were caught by the police and charged with living in sin. The woman, Fatima, has refused to leave the prison where she is staying with her infant child, for fear that her family will marry her off quickly to an old man.
Cheers
Mohammed

Iraq's American Values, Saddam's Virgins, Jordanian Honor Killings

I have been reading and hearing reports and comments about the training and arming of the Iraqi Army. Several U.S and Arab commentators have warned that the United States, in training the Iraqis, is training unreliable people who do not share American values and goals. Yet the United States trains other Arab armies, including the Saudis and Egyptians- it is highly doubtful that they share American values and goals (September 11, 2001 reminded us all of that). There is one major difference, however: unlike all other Arab armed forces, the Iraqi army answers to a freely elected government- this is one value they share with America that other Arabs do not.

At a conference in Doha to staunch Moslem sectarian tensions, a top radical Egyptian Sunni cleric, a Dr. Yosouf al-Qardawi, called on Shia's to stop converting Sunnis to their sect. That went a long way toward sealing the fate of the conference. Later al-Qardawi eulogized Saddam Hussein at a mosque, and almost guaranteed him a place in paradise. He did not, however, mention whether Saddam will also have unlimited access to virgins in his new domicile.

It looks like Lebanon is on the verge of a new civil war, unless the various factions and parties agree to a restructuring of the political system. It is clear now that the current system is untenable, simply because the largest group of the Lebanese demographic/ethnic mosaic, as represented by Hizballah and Amal, will not accept it. It is highly unlikely that the recent Paris agreement on aid will do much to change that. There are reports in Arab media that the Iranians and the Saudis, the two main influences on the opposing Lebanese factions, are working to reach an agreement. Even if they do, will their purported proxies, Mr. Nassrallah and Mr. Hariri agree? Unfortunately for Lebanon, it is unlikely that the $ 7+ billion aid money, whenever it becomes available and at whatever conditions, will flow fast enough to affect the situation on the ground.

Alarabiya reports from Jordan that a young girl was shot by her family for 'dishonoring' them by running away from home for a few days. Posthumous medical examination showed that she was still a virgin- whatever bit of family honor that strip of membrane represented was still intact. Reports claim that at least 12 women have been honor-killed by their families in Jordan over the last year, and it is very likely that many more such murder cases are not even reported, perhaps not as 'honor' killings.

Looks like most commentators agree that the Pakistani ISI, the inter-service intelligence, has resumed helping and arming the now-resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan. Most publicly agree with this assessment, except U.S officials in Washington. And we all know who is allied with and bankrolls the Taliban, or do we?
Cheers
Mohammed

Reckoning in Iran, Little Nuclear King, An Islamic Crusade

Ahmadijejad's Reckoning: Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been riding high over the past two years. The time of reckoning, however, is drawing close. He was elected on promises to improve economic conditions, and he has clearly failed to deliver. Instead, he seems to have focused on foreign policy issues, even traveling far and wide and literally meddling in various foreign issues that do not concern his people. He even managed to antagonize European leaders who are the quintessential anti-neocons, by going back in time, literally backwards, to adopt the seemy issue of holocaust denial. He has not endeared his regime or his country to those who really count nowadays in the world economy, the industrial nations that control the executive boards of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. He does not have much time before the next election, and he looks set to lose. The local media and politicians are accelerating its criticism of him. If he could not fulfill his promises when petroleum prices were near $ 70 a barrel, he certainly will not be able to do so with prices near $ 50. Unless a certain major super-power makes the huge mistake of attacking his country within the next two years. That is precisely what Saddam Hussein did in 1980, thus allowing the embattled mullahs to eliminate their powerful secular and democratic opponents.

Funniest Statement of the Week: The Israeli newspaper Ma'arev quotes King Abdullah of Jordan that his country will develop nuclear energy, for peaceful purposes of course. There remains one simple question: where the hell will Jordan get the money (billions of dollars) from? Foreign aid and development assistance, major sources of Jordanian foreign exchange earnings, do not cover nuclear research- the U.S Congress will never stand for it. Then there is the issue of the brains and the knowledge needed: it is almost impossible to B.S. your way into the nuclear club. Even an Arab leader cannot get that far with pure B.S.

Iraq, Again: In discussing the Middle East, there is no escaping Iraq. It has replaced the Palestinian issue as the focus of the struggle for the region. At least, the Arab regimes, which for decades used Israel and the Palestinian plight as the excuse for continued dictatorship and corruption, have now shifted almost their total attention to Iraq. Re-instating the Sunni elites back in power in Baghdad is the goal of all Arab regimes. Except they do not know how to go about it, now that all Iraqi factions are armed to the teeth. Certainly the escalated and vicious media war being waged against the Iraqi constitution and the weak government will not lead to that. Perhaps the Jordanian Fredonian nuclear threat (look above) will help tip the balance?

Speaking of Iraq: the Turkish parliament has been discussing Iraqi matters in closed session- especially the city of Kirkuk, fomerly mainly Kurdish but ethnically-cleansed by the Ba'ath and the former Sunni rulers of Iraq. The Kurds prepare for a referendum by the end of the year that might join the city to their autonomous region. The Turks threaten intervention if that happens. In this the Turks are making common cause with the Salafi fundamentalists and former Ba'athists who are at the core of the terrorism in Iraq.

Interesting Arabia: Alarabiya TV website, when it is not carrying the Sunni-Wahabi Crusade (this is not a pun, otherwise it would be a bad one) about Iraq, does publish interesting items. It reports that a young Saudi man parked his car, a Mercedes of course, outside a butcher's shop, entered the shop and proceeded to cut his own throat on the meat machine. He succeeded. A leading Saudi shaikh (there are many over there) said that this is an unusual case, an aberration, in the Saudi Moslem society, presumably just like hypocrisy, corruption, nepotism, and embezzlement. He said suicide may be caused by mental illness (also one of the causes of political nonconformity), using illegal drugs (another cause of noncomformity), or perhaps he was exposed to some magic perhaps from the Jinn (also can cause serious political nonconformity and general anti-government views). The Shaikh, Abdulmuhsin al-Obeikan, did say, however, that the mentally ill is not responsible and will not be punished on the Day of Judgement. Even if the said mentally ill espouses unusual political views? What if the mentally ill person decides to convert from Islam to, say, espiscopalianism? Or even Catholicism (I used episcopalianism first because it has a certain ring to it)? Everybody can spell Catholic, or Moslem- but espiscopalian can be a challenge.
Cheers
Mohammed

How Arab Rulers Seek to 'Reform' Iraq

Arabia Deceptia: this terms was the title of a column written by the late Walter Lippmann after the Arab-Israeli Six-Day War of 1967. It is as relevant today as it was then.
With the political mood in Washington shifting away from pushing democracy and toward a return to the old cold-war era emphasis on 'stability', regional rulers feel 'off the hook'. There is still the messy business in Iraq which they would like to deal with, on their on terms, if they can swing it.
The Arab political system has convinced itself that events in Iraq must be the work of 'foreigners', part of some grand scheme. Some blame Iran, which is certainly involved in Iraq. Some blame a joint Israeli-Iranian plot: considered far-fetched anywhere in the world except in Arabia. Others see a secret American-Iranian plan to divide up the region- a sort of modern day Sykes-Picot deal, just like the Brits and the French did after World War I. Others throw in Israel as the third partner in this plot. Some old habits do not die: self-delusion and denial are alive and well, as ever, in Arabia. 'De Nile' is a river in Egypt, as they say.

President Mubarak of Egypt supports the new Bush plan for Iraq. But he demands that the "Iraqi" constitution be amended. To make the political process more inclusive. Mr. Mubarak, 79 years old and by now 26 years in absolute power, is planning to hand over the throne of Egypt to his son when he departs. Only once has he had to face an opponent in an election, a rigged sham election- even Jimmy Carter did not bother to show up to validate its results. That opponent in question, Ayman Nour, has been in prison on trumped up charges ever since. And Mr. Mubarak wants the "Iraqi" constitution amended to make it more inclusive.

The Saudis have also welcomed the new Bush plan, after some explanations and clarification by Secretary Rice. But they are also demanding, through their foreign minister and through the best-financed media in the third world, that the "Iraqi" constitution be amended to make it more inclusive. Saudi Arabia does not have a constitution, and 15% of its citizens who happen to be Shi'as (Shiites to some westerners) sit atop the vast petroleum fields of their ancestral lands, and these 15% aspire to be treated better, perhaps at least as third class citizens. They are not as ambitious as their counterparts, the 15% Sunnis of Iraq. You see, they are being realistic. And Saudi Arabia demands that Iraq's constitution be more inclusive.
Saudi women cannot drive a car, a motorcycle, or ride a bicycle or a mule at home. They cannot travel without being accompanied by an adult male relative. They can be divorced by a husband simply repeating "You are divorced" three times, and that divorce cannot be reversed until after the woman remarries someone else and the new marriage is 'consummated'. Not 'very nice' as Borat would say. Yet Saudi Arabia wants to improve the 'Iraqi' constitution and to reform the freely elected, albeit hapless, Iraqi government.
So do all Arab despots, kings, dictators, and presidents-for-life (the only kind of president in the Arab World, with one exception).

The problem with the Arab system is that it failed the Iraqi people time and again over 35 years. It ignored and denied the genocide against the Kurds even as the Anfal operations were at their peak. It sided with Saddam when he launched his war against Iran. Half of it sided with Saddam when he invaded Kuwait. Now they and their paid media are foolishly questioning the patriotic credentials of 85% of the Iraqi people, the Kurds and the Shi'as. Don't get me wrong: the other 15% of Iraqis, the Sunnis, have no love for the existing Arab system either. After all, this system and its governments either condoned or actively supported the war that ended their domination of Iraq.
Cheers
Mohammed