The pro-Saudi rump cabinet of Lebanon has suffered a stinging political and military defeat this week. It was an unnecessary defeat that they walked into through blunder. Or perhaps they were trapped into it by the mouth of Walid Jumblatt, their Druze warlord ally. A good measure of the defeat is the reaction of their financiers and friends in the region to recent events in Beirut:

A pissed-off Asharq alawsat, mouthpiece of Saudi Prince Salman, said today that there are two sides in Lebanon: thugs and "respectable" ones, armed ones and civilians, outlaws and those who are law-abiding.

Even the somnolent President Husni Mubarak of Egypt (80 years this week) awoke from his long nap to assert that he will not allow a force supported by Iran to dominate Lebanon. President Mugabe Mubarak them went back to his 27 year old nap.

Aalquds alarabi notes that when Messrs Saniora, Hariri, and Jumblatt, find themselves trapped in their headquarters, this is a clear indication of where the balance of power in Lebanon lies. It specualtes that perhaps the American-Saudi-Israeli axis forced this issue in order to show Hizbullah as a militia that would use its force not just against the Israelis, but also against fellow Lebanese. In fact reaction in some Saudi media outlets seem to support this point of view.

It looks like the Lebanese cabinet, what is left of it, has just lost a battle of nerves, wills, and arms with the oppposition led by Hizbullah. Mr. Hariri, the real leader of the pro-government and Saudi Arabia's man in Beirut, called on the army to arbitrate. The army did just that yesterday: it rescinded the cabinet decision to fire the chief of airport security and to dimantle the Hizbullah communications network.

It is not clear why the cabinet took its earlier decision, right after Druze warlord Jumblatt unexpectedly called for such measures. Speculation is that the rump-cabinet was promised support, otherwise it would not have the guts to act on its own in such a provocative way. Presumably, some Arab media hint, it was encouraged by its Saudi-American paymasters.

Mr. Hariri returned recently from somewhere outside of Lebanon, materializing right before the crisis. He owns homes in Saudi Arabia and Paris, among other places. He was doing a Muqtada (as in al-Sadr) by vanishing among his foreign and regional friends in times of crisis. This time, after Hizbullah routed the militias of the rump-cabinet, the neutral Lebanese army has spoken, and it has handed the pro-cabinet forces a stinging political defeat to match their military defeat.

al-Manar TV, mouthpiece of Hizbullah, claims that Hariri returned with strong Saudi prmises of support. It also claims that the Bush administration has promised to increase pressure on the Syrian regime through massing naval forces and bringing up the issue of a possible nuclear program. It also reports that Hariri has sent a delegation including 11 Shi'as to Washington, with the goal of proving to Congressmen that all Lebanese Shi'as do not support Hizbullah. Now we know that at least 11 of them do not.

The pro-cabinet media charges that Iran is trying too reach the Mediterranean through Lebanon. The opposition charges that the Saudis are trying to extend their influence to the shores of the Mediteranean through Mr. Hariri and Mr. Saniora in Lebanon. Both are partly right and they know it. The situation in Lebanon is more complex than the mere Shi'a-Sunni and Iranian-American conflict. At least half of Lebanon's Christians are siding with Hizbullah and Amal, as do some prominent Sunnis. even though the Saudi media tries hard to make it into a sectarian conflict and sharpen the lines.
Cheers
Mohammed