(This entry is from my web site):
The Rice and Bush Oil Effect:
Crude prices passed $122 this morning, which proves my theory of a strong causality between the movements of Air Forces One & Two and oil prices. Anyone remember my often stated theory that oil prices are directly related to visits by high US officials to the Middle East? How visits by President Bush and Mr Cheney are immediately followed by crude price hikes? Now we can add Condi Rice to the list of oil price movers.
Only last week there was serious talk of oil going down below $100, perhaps back to $80 or less, the wild Nigerian guerrillas and striking oil workers nontwithstanding. The bullish predictions of Professor Economides were pooh poohed by market 'analysts', even though he has been right more often than most of them.
Then it was announced that Secretary Rice is going to the Mddle East in order to, get this, prepare the ground for yet ANOTHR Bush visit. I was out of town two days ago and missed the implications. I missed the spike in prices that followed the next day. I could kick myself for missing the sure signals to make some money, if I could, that is.

It looks like Mr. Bush, Mr. Cheney, and Ms. Rice will manage to keep oil prices robust for the rest of their term. Now, if Cheney has Halliburton holdings in some kind of a lockbox, then the lockbox will be unlocked come January and, voila! It sure beats having bought property in California’s Inland Empire or along Florida’s geriatric strip. And if there is to be a third Bush term under John McCain...

A Long Hot Summer:
Things are heating up in the old and New Middle East. It looks like like it is possible to have more of Condi Rice’s famous bang-bang birth pangs before the end of the year, either in Iraq, Iran, or over Lebanon.

In Lebanon, the frustrated rump cabinet (of part of Beirut) has transferred the general who is chief of airport security for being too soft on Hizbullah. The rump cabinet accused Hizbullah of operating its own communications systm (is that like Verizon?) and installing spy cameras around the airport. Imagine, spying on your political, and potential military, rivals. What is Lebanon coming to.

The issue came to head after Druze warlord Jumblatt was assigned the role of raising it noisily as is his style, and he called for removal of the airport security chief. The opposition, including Hizbullah, retorted that this is part of a plan to internationalise Beirut Airport and its surroundings and place them under foreign control. I am not sure what foreign country will want to place its troops anywhere near Beirut airport, even if they are under UN command. The area had a tragic history during the 1980s. Lebanese alliances are notoriously unstable and treacherous- just look at General Oun and Waleed Jumblatt.
Hizbullah has rejected the charges and refuses to dismantle its communications network. The cabinet considers the network as impinging on its authority, but the opposition does not recognize that authority. This network has been talked about in the media of the moderate New Middle East for over a year now, which means that something may be brewing for the summer.

Of course the selection of a Lebanese president has been postponed again. With the economy moving along as it is doing, does anybody other than the rival warlords really care? It may get postponed indefinitely, until either the Second Coming or until the Mahdi reappears, whichever comes first.

Iran is back in the crosshairs, this time for both the nuclear issue and for things it may be doing in Iraq against US soldiers with its devices. The question of who will “take out” the mullahs is being bandied about in some Gulf newspapers. Some newspapers seem to think that once the United States, or Israel, bomb some sites in Iran, probably the worng sites, then everything will be just fine on the shores of our Gulf: all the potentates will hold hands and sing Kumbaya forever.
But wasn’t that what we thought when Saddam was in the crosshairs? And years before that when the earlier mullahs were in Saddam's crosshairs? And years before that when the shah was in Khomeini's crosshairs? As Pete Seeger said "Oh, when will they ever learn"?

Family Awards and Blue-Collar Kings
This has been a month of more awards in the Arab world.
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has received the Abu Bakr Award (Abu-Bakr, the Second Caliph, no less) of the first class from the Arab Organization for the Red Crescent and Red Cross. This was in appreciation of his humanitarian efforts. This is the third or fourth award his majesty has received so far this year. And how many has Bush received? For that matter: how many did Mother Teresa receive?

Princess al-Jawhara (the Jewel, or is it the Gem) has received an ward from the King of Bahrain for aiding (and abetting?) the Arabian Gulf University and establishing a medical research center.

The one award that was not within the family was largely ignored by the local press. It was given to a Saudi human rights activist, an independent one not of those sanctioned and appointed by the rulers. He is A. al-Lahim and the award is from the American Bar Association. But he won’t have a gaggle of princes to fete him. He is banned from traveling and has been disbarred to boot. So, no schnapps at the zwolf-apostelkeller for him next July, that is if he is so inclined.

Mr. al-Lahim was gracious enough to state that the award is a crowning achievement for human rights in his country. He may yet get to Vienna, but only with a “magnanimous” kingly decision (that is, a decision by the king). Arab potentates love doing this type of theatrics: at the last minute they pardon someone who was never guilty. They can teach Hillary Clinton a few things about public politicking- but she has them beat in one respect:they can never claim to come from blue-collar roots. Whatever color they are, they are not blue.
Cheers
Mohammed