Middle East Opinion #3

Three Years Later: Iraq, Arabia, Chocolate Mocha, and Shoe Polish

Here is a list of what has happened since the invasion of Iraq three years ago:

• Three elections: for an Interim Parliament, a Constitution, and a Permanent Parliament.
• Ba’ath Party is banned and former opposition parties are in control.
• Deterioration of law and order in the Central Region around Baghdad.
• Increased sectarian tensions and violence, most likely instigated by Salafi/Wahabi infiltration of men, money and materiel from outside.
• Some loss of security compared to the era of Saddam, but then it is always safer to be locked up in a cell than to be walking the streets freely, isn’t it? Which one is preferable depends on one’s point of view.
• Rumblings about democracy, and hints of moving toward it in some Arab countries. But don’t wait for a dishdasha-and-ghutra-clad Jefferson-on-the-Persian-Gulf, or on the Red Sea, anytime soon. I am willing to bet a Starbuck’s White Chocolate Mocha (a case of Redhook Blonde might not be appropriate here) that ten years from now the same leaders will control each and every Arab country (perhaps bar two). Unless fate intervenes before then, and in that case some of their children or cronies will be in power. Still, there are some clear positive signs, reluctant first steps.
• The most unfortunate consequence: the many casualties among the coalition forces and Iraqi civilians.
• The most pleasant surprise for Iraqis: they do not have to watch younger versions of Saddam’s face all day in their offices, in city squares, on the front pages of their newspapers, and on their television sets. Well, there is that trial going on now… but at least now they see him as he is. He still dyes his hair, but then that is part of being an Arab leader- all Arab presidents, kings, and oil shaikhs dye their hair. Black shoe polish is very popular in the Arab countries.
• Unfortunate for othe Arab countires: they will still have to go on enduring massive daily doses of photos, images and films of their potentates, sporting the same dyed jet-black hair, for the next generation, at least. (Sounds like a perfect setting for a Jonestown-on-the-Persian-Gulf).
• The most shocking surprise to most Iraqis (a pleasant surprise): pictures of George W. Bush have not replaced those of Saddam in offices, newspapers, town squares, television…..etc. What is their world coming to??
• They are haggling, betting, raising, posturing, and bluffing their way into a new kind of government in Baghdad.
• Talk has intensified about a civil war (in Iraq, not in Washington), but it is mostly aimed at bluffing the United States into pressuring Iraqi officials to give more concessions. They know it is a three year election cycle in the USA between now and November 2008. It is a form of Texas Hold ‘em on the Dijla River- that is the Tigris to most of you.
• I understand that the southern Marshes, the ones Saddam had drained, are being revived. The Ma’adan (a.k.a Marsh Arabs) shall rise again.
  
  Cheers
  MHG/phd