Al-Qaida in Lebanon, Taliban Redux, and an Immortal Egyptian Phrase

Analysis and Commentary

Is al-Qaida surging again? For some time now al-Qaida had almost disappeared from the screen, literally. The terrorist organization was reduced to issuing a series of rambling video-audio tapes, telling the world that it still existed. Of course the bombs kept exploding in Bali, Madrid, and London took. And al-Qaida does not engage in military operations, it plans patiently its suicide killings.

For a while the group was overshadowed by world events, events in which it had no significant role, if any. There was Iraq, then the Iranian nukular (or is it nuclear?) issue. Then came the unkindest cut of all, as far as all Salafi jihadists are concerned: their thunder was stolen by a Shia organization from Lebanon. Hizballah is not only of the wrong sect, it does not even subscribe to a global jihadist philosophy, and it sucked away the limelight and a big chunk of Moslem popular imagination.

Now al-Qaida is back, waving its new trump card: a kaffir recruit, a former pothead from Kaleephornia (or is it California). But the real news should be the Taliban, who seem to be regaining ground in parts of the Pushtun lands in Afghanistan, along the Pakistan border. The Taliban are also resorting to the tactics of the Sunni terrorists in Iraq- suicide bombings and roadside explosives that kill indiscriminately. These are having some effect- otherwise Afghanistan would not even be in the news again.

In an ominous sign, al-Qaida is apparently activating its franchise in Lebanon. The group, led by someone al-Arabiya TV (Sept 12, 2006) calls Abu Rushd al-Migati had been dormant, training and sending occasional bombers across to Iraq. Now it seems to seek a local role in Lebanon. With Sunni-Shia tensions high in the Persian Gulf region, it is likely to get some funds from that region, if only to keep Hizballah looking over its shoulder.

In Egypt, Prime Minister Mohammed Nadheef, his last name means ‘Clean’, is being forced out. According to media reports, Mr. Clean apparently ran afoul of Gamal Mubark, the son of the president and heir apparent to the Egyptian throne, who is said to be an eager reformer. So, out he goes, and in comes a Mr. Rasheed- his last name means ‘Wise’ or ‘Rightly-Guided’ but don’t hold your breath. So, Prime Minister Wise (no, he is not Weiss) will get a crack at the immovable Egyptian bureaucracy. A great Egyptian political leader, Saad Zaghloul once succinctly summed up the political situation to his wife (sort of Egyptian pillow talk, if you will) in one sentence: ‘mafeesh faida ya Saffiya. Ain't no use, it is hopless, Saffiya.’
In the Arab World you can repeat the same phrase today, about twenty two times, once for each capital. If you do, you would be right in almost every case, but you would also be very unwise.

Cheers
Mohammed