Iraq:
Iraq’s Arab neighbors have been gradually inching away from the elected but embattled regime in that country. Initially, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Persian Gulf states were going through the motion of recognition and diplomatic relations, mainly to satisfy the American protector, or aid-donor in some cases. Now, these governments, having smelled blood both in Iraq and at the U.S ballot box earlier this November, seem to be backtracking both on their professed move to democracy and in helping stabilize Iraq.
The clearest example came this past week, when several Arab states, including Persian Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan, received Shaikh Harith Al-Dhari, en extremist Sunni ‘cleric’ who leads what is called ‘The Association of Muslim Scholars’, a group that has refused to join the political process and supports ‘the resistance’ in Iraq, i.e. the random killing of civilian Iraqis and American soldiers by terrorists.
A few days ago the Secretary General of the Arab League, Mr. Amr Moussa, met in Cairo with Shaikh Al-Dhari, who is wanted by the Iraqi authorities for questioning. The Arab League never meets with political opponents of Arab regimes- it has never met with Saudi, Bahraini, Egyptian, or other Arab opposition groups. Yet it has elevated Shaikh Al-Dhari by granting him a publicized meeting. The King of Jordan met with Al-Dhari yesterday, then warned of 'civil wars' in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. Mamoun Fendi, an adviser reputed to be close to Saudi King Abdullah, also warned Monday of these same expected civil wars. Meanwhile, an editorial extolling the virtues of this shaikh has been making the rounds in the Gulf newspapers- another step toward rehabilitation.
Predictably, reactions in the Arab capitals to the carnage that slaughtered over 200 Shi’as in Sadr city were noticeably mute, but they picked up steam and noise after the uncontrollable Shi’a militias went on their own ill-advised rampage of vengeful sectarian attacks. Arab states rightly worry about the growing Iranian influence in Iraq, but this week, just as they have done for three years, they were silent about the terrorist-jihadist bombings in Baghdad. Perhaps sides are being selected in what some expect to be a decisive phase of Iraq’s ongoing civil non-war.
As Mr. Al-Maliki gets ready to meet President Bush in Amman (looks like it is on, for now), Iraq's president Talibani is heading to Iran Monday to discuss the same issues. Perhaps Vice President Cheney met with Saudi leaders last week to discuss the very same issues. So, Mr. Talibani (the Kurd) will be the messenger between Iran and the US, Mr. Al-Maliki (the Shi'a) will play the same role, but coming from the other direction, geographically, that is. It is not clear how Mr. Cheny fits into this, perhaps he is the third side of a tri-lateral exchange. Perhaps he went to Riyadh to give the Saudis a heads up on some bad news, or some good news. The plot thickens.
Bahrain Elections:
The (mainly Shi'a) opposition has won a majority of the legislative elections in Bahrain this week. But don't hold your breath in awe\: the elections are for only half the legislature- the king appoints the other half, all of them. The deck of cards is stacked.
Cheers
Mohammed
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