Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Who took the three American soldiers in the Triangle of Death? Al Qaeda has warned the U.S forces not to look for them, which is an interesting new approach by them. And why aren’t they on the internet or some Arabic satellite TV begging for their lives? Reports say the attack on their unit was well planned- presumably so was the abduction. So what happened to the usual audio or video or clip?

There are three possible explanations:
They are dead, but this is the least likely outcome. It is a bad one, but not the worst outcome.

Or, the worst possible outcome: al Qaeda has them, but they are still within U.S.-controlled territory. They can’t get to a video camera or a webcam yet. This is a very likely outcome. It is also the most unfortunate outcome.

Or, the best possible outcome: they are being held by a different group than al Qaeda. The latter is possible and explains the reward announced for information about them. Obviously al Qaeda can’t be the target of a reward offer. Another group might be bargaining for them, which would mean a bidding war between al Qaeda and the Unites States. Or maybe the group is still on the run, trying to get the men out of American-controlled areas. They would know that al Qaeda might merely give them an IOU and tell them to collect their reward when they get to the other world- It may even help them get there. They know they have a better chance of collecting in this world with the Americans.

As U.S and Iranian ambassadors in Baghdad get ready to meet over Iraq, the White House is eagerly minimizing the importance of the meeting. Which makes one wonder: why hold the meeting at all? This looks like a case of the lady who protests too much. Still, this meeting may be scuttled, just like the earlier one a year or so ago.

Persian Gulf Media still largely expect a U.S and/or Israeli attack on Iran sometime soon. But then again, they have been expecting an imminent attack for over a year now. One warmongering newspaper in Kuwait, alseyassah , has been changing its favorite deadline for D-day every couple of months, putting the attack off while its owner/editor consults fortune tellers and the djinn about the next most-likely date.

Gulf diplomats and top politicians, who probably know no more about this than yours truly (that would be moi), try to sound wise and knowledgeable when asked, mumbling vague sweet nothings about nuclear dangers and the dangers of any war in the region. Which is a sure sign that they don’t know much about future plans for the Gulf Region: these plans are completely out of the hands of Arab diplomats and leaders, subject to the interactions and conflicts of Iranian and American policies.

It looks like the much touted Palestinian accord reached in Riyadh between Hamas and the Fatah is dead, deader than Mr. Arafat. Palestinians are again killing each other while Israel celebrates its independence.

There are reports in the media (both Arab and Western) that Saudi Arabia is doing a ‘Bush White House’ in its relations to the Iraqi government. Just as the U.S administrations refuses to talk with its ‘foes’ so the Saudi royals refuse to sit down and talk to al-Maliki and the Shi’a members of his cabinet. They talk with President Talibani (Kurd), Foreign Minister Zibari (Kurd), and Vice President Hashimi (Sunni), but reports indicate that both King Abdullah and his Foreign Minister have refused to sit down with the Prime Minister (Shi’a). In other words, an unelected absolute monarchy has downgraded the elected Iraqi government. That is another example of Arabian chutzpah.
Cheers
Mohammed

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