Monday, July 02, 2007

Failed States:
Foreign Policy magazine has issued its list of "Failed States" for 2007, for all its worth:

The Arabs win the gold, the silver, and the bronze this time: the top three states, i.e the three most failed states on the list, are members of the Arab League. The Africans are close behind, nipping at their heels.

There are eight Arab states among the top 60. Which means that almost half the League members are defined here as failed states of one degree or another. Many other grossly mismanaged Arab states are probably not defined as such only because of three important letters O-I-L. A steep drop in petroleum prices, although unlikely right now, could easily double the number of failed Arab states: remember, when crude prices were at around than $ 10-15 a barrel, Saudi Arabia was largely considered a near-failed state.

The top eight Arab states include, by improving order (from worst to less bad?): Sudan (1), Iraq (2), Somalia (3), Yemen (24), Lebanon (28), Egypt (36), Syria (40).
There are 20 Moslem states among the top 60, and 7 among the top 20.

The top 20 (the worst 20) are all African, Arab, or Moslem states, with the exception of North Korea and Burma (this dubious company should make Kim Jung Il in his Dear Leader tight khakis really pissed).

Palestinian Divisions:
Arab media report that the Fatah-PLO in the West Bank is threatened with a split of its own. Icons (or relics, depending on your politics) of the Old old guard such as Farouq Kaddoumi and Hani Al-Hassan have raised objections to President Abbas' policies regarding the peace process and disarming some militias.

Meanwhile, the prospect of holding U.N supervised elections in both Gaza and the West Bank is being raised, but it looks like neither side wants the elections on his own territory (where are you Jimmy Carter when they need you?)

Then again, what happens if Hamas wins again, in BOTH territories? This possibility cannot be dismissed if the elections are fair and open- the Fatah has dug a deep hole of corruption for itself since the Oslo agreement. And Palestinian voters are crazy and desperate enough to do it. Perhaps all those Fatah ministers and ex-ministers can be persuaded to give back the money, liquidate assets across Europe and points beyond. Perhaps with a little help from their friends....perhaps a few millions of those famous BAE billions that were received by a certain influential Saudi prince-diplomat-ambassador in Washington, and eluded the British SFO, with the help of Tony Blair?

Which brings me to Mr. Blair, mostly a nice guy, really, in spite of his Alfred E. Newman looks- come to think of it, isn't there another very famous Western leader who also resembles Alfred E. Newman?
But don't hold your breath for yo Blair to achieve a breakthrough in his new job as 'mediator' in the Middle East.

Iranians are getting restive over the government's inept economic policies and its renewed crackdown on reformers and women who show some hair. Last week, gasoline had to be rationed, and this hit people where it really hurts, especially in a country that sits on an ocean of petroleum.
Cheers
Mohammed

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