It looks like Iraq's Arab neighbors have largely given up the hope, and their tentative encouragement of regime change in Iraq. Saudi Arabia announced two weeks that it will send a delegation to 'look into' opening an embassy. It hasn't happened yet, and it may not. A couple of editorials in the Saudi offshore press critically analyze the Iraqi Sunni rejection of the political process. It is not clear if this is a price for the United States accepting and arming some Sunni militias in parts of Baghdad and western Iraq. Does this mean Mr. Iyad Allawi can stop spending a lot of his time traveling to Arab capitals seeking political support from those who can only give the 'kiss of political death' to an aspiring Iraqi leader?

This would be an unusually clever move by Iraq's neighbors, as it would fill a diplomatic void that mainly Iran has been filling for several years. Besides, Iraq's Sunnis do not necessarily consider many Arab regimes as their true friends. They know that they lost power not only because of American action- they know that American troops, tanks and airplanes entered Iraq across Arab borders, Arab waters and Arab airspaces. The logistics and communications for the invaion were also organized through various Sunni-ruled Arab states, including all the Gulf monarchies and Jordan.

This possible thawing with the Arab governments, which comes after visits to Arab capitals first by VP Cheney then by Secretaries Rice and Gates, also comes as the ruling Shi'a-Kurdish coalition forms a majority government excluding its unwilling former partners. The coalition is seeking independent Sunni politicians to join the cabinet. It looks like one more Shi'a party might join the coalition, and Vice President Tareq al-Hashimi, the leading Sunni politician, has hinted of supporting the new coalition.

It would also be helpful to the Iraqi people if two concrete financial measures are taken by the neighbors, especially the Gulf monarchies: reduction of Iraq's debt and cancelation of the exorbitant reparations that are paid to some neighbors as compensation for the first Persian Gulf War. Iraq's neighbors should remember the experience of Versailles and the German reparations after World War I.
President Bush appointed James Baker a few years ago to renegotiate Iraq's foreign debt, and he had some success with the country's non-Arab debtors. The Paris Club of official debtors did alter its standards three years ago to include Iraq as a target for debt relief. There was some talk of reducing Iraq's Arab debt, but it has not gone far- most Iraq's Arab neighbors seem to want to, foolishly, use the debt as a source of political leverage to influence internal Iraqi politics.
The country's debt exceeded $120 billion before the invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and almost certainly doubled by 2003.

After the al-Qaeda bombing that killed nearly 500 Iraqi Yazidis earlier this week, a group of prominent Moslem clerics from different sects and several Arab countries as well as India, Iran and Bosnia signed a declaration condemning the bombing and condemning the killing of Moslems, Christains, or 'other sects' (of course they shied away from mentioning Jews by name). Notably absent from the list was any shaikh or Imam from Saudi Arabia (Alarabiya.net, Aug 17).

Cheers
Mohammed