It looks like the current French government is departing from the trend of the past years. It is abandoning Old Europe, and returning to the future of an even older Europe- in terms of relations with America. No longer will French paratroopers be used solely to land in African capitals and shore up friendly dictators or keep order, nor will they watch mass genocide from across the border a la Rwanda. The French aspire to replace Les Anglais as America’s staunchest allies, in the Middle East anyway, at least for now. That should last until the fall/Christmas season flood of popular American films are unleashed in Europe….then it’ll be Sacrebleue! le nouveau defi Americain, l’invasion culturelle!

The Iran-West rift has shifted toward France now. France’s new Foreign Minister Bernie Kushner is almost as tactful as Iran’s Ahmadinejd. He went to Baghdad, predicted the fall of the Iraqi cabinet, and hinted at the desirability of that outcome. A week later he hinted at a war against Iran that may be inevitable, and all but claimed that France, at least he and Sarko, was getting ready for that war. So far it looks like he was wrong about Iraq. The jury is still out about the Iran war.

Meanwhile, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has criticized all the talk about an Iran war. Elbradei stated that all the noise about Iran reminds him of the noise before the invasion of Iraq. It is possible that El Bradei wants to succeed where Hans Blix failed in 2003 to stop the Bush administration from invading Iraq. Blix was demonized by conservatives and by others in the United States because he publicly doubted claims of Iraqi WMD. I was one of those who suspected Blix at the time- but it is not always true what the old song says, that ‘a fool never learns’. Fools outside Washington anyway.


Perhaps the next war will come in the Fall of 2008, either before of just after the elections, although Fox News has not hinted at a date. It may come just in time to saddle the next administration with three wars in the periphery of the Persian Gulf, some messy unfinished business in Lebanon and Palestine, besides the wider and now largly defensive war on terror.

Speaking of Iran, it is almost UN General Assembly time, and it looks like the Hugo & Mahmoud show will be on again- notwithstanding the bombastic and self-serving demands of Mitt Romney to deny the Iranian president access to NYC. It would be interesting if Libya's Qadhafi (Gaddafi) also shows up; then the meetings will be much more entertaining. Maybe all three will show up on Jay Leno or Letterman, although the staid Jon Stewart is a more likely venue.

The Iraqi government may have put itself in a corner by publicly announcing that it “will revoke the license of” Blackwater Corporation to operate in Iraq. That was after a battle in which the company’s agents killed some 11 Iraqis and wounded many more. US organizations, including the Embassy, have depended on the firm for security and protection in the wild streets of Baghdad.

By mutual agreement, Blackwater staff are not subject to Iraqi laws: this was fine as long as there were no large-scale fights and large numbers of publicized killings. Over time, with more news like this, the special position of Blackwater will be exploited in Iraq and around the Middle East to fan the flames of anti-Americanism. There was a similar legal-status agreement in Iran under the Shah which was publicly derided by Ayatollah Khomeini and others.
Cheers
Mohammed