Monday, April 20, 2009

Roxana and the Mullahs, Disunited Police States of the Mideast. Pinning Their Hopes on Bibi


Rewinding Iranian justice: The Iranian kangaroo court, in true Middle Eastern style, took only one day to pass a sentence of eight years in prison on Roxana Saberi, former beauty queen from the frozen great state of North Dakota. It had to be a kangaroo court because no self-respecting judge would pass judgment in one day. In case you didn’t know: outside Iran and Saudi Arabia it takes days to bring in witnesses and have them testify and cross examine them.
She is held in Evin prison, often called notorious by the Western media, the same prison that gained notoriety under the Shah. Apparently some things don't change much in the Middle East no matter what the regime.

She was held for working as a reporter long after her credentials expired- not a smart thing to do in the Middle East. But apparently the authorities in Iran knew she was reporting, of course they knew: security services in the police states of Old and New Middle East know everything. They gave her at least tacit permission for almost three years.
She was sentenced for espionage after a trial that reportedly lasted one day. Even under the ancien regime trials lasted longer than that. This is something that would drive an attorney like Alan Dershowitz mad- although I would not advise him to show up at Mehrabad Airport (or have they changed the name?). It is not clear yet what specific charges or evidence the court heard- but even Saddam Hussein got three years to make his case in court.

Iranian mullahs, some elements of them, are good at shooting themselves in the foot. Or maybe they are good at derailing chances for improved relations with the United States, something that anecdotal evidence shows most Iranians welcome and many of the mullahs fear.


Speaking of Iran: some Arab media, especially in the Gulf region, which have been despondent lately at the dimming prospect of an attack on Iran, are perking up. They waited years for George W Bush and Darth Vader Cheney to get their act together in Iraq and Afghanistan so that they could make a similar case for an attack on Iran. The US intelligence community torpedoed that with its famous NIE Report of the fall of 2007.


With President Obama making peace overtures, the war camp had just about given up this year. Until Israeli polls showed Banjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud ahead in the polls. I suspect that many potentates and their media gunslingers prayed for a Likud victory. I would not go so far as to speculate that they vowed to make the usual 5-star Hajj or Omrah trips, putting up with such inconveniences as first class flights and 5-star hotels for the sake of the Lord. No, I certainly would not- but some may have slaughtered a few sacrificial sheep after Peres gave the nod to the Likud. Well, at least some kosher chickens.

Now they have it, and the editorials seem hopeful again of the prospects for an air attack on Iranian facilities. The airwaves carry waves of excitement reminiscent of early September 1980, when the potentates and their print media hitched their wagons to the Takriti star, their media egging him onward (Onward Ba'athist soldiers, marching as to war.....reminiscent of a favorite daily hymn at the chapel in my old Pennsylvania school). We all know how that one ended in 1980 and for long after that.

The partnership of Netanyahu and Lieberman (the thug Avigdor not the goofy-looking Joe) is making the right noises.
Of course Israeli planes must fly over Arab territory to reach Iran, and some countries are unlikely to give permission. Turkey definitely won't. And it is highly unlikely the assault will be sustainable enough to do serious damage. And the Israelis have not yet done their homework in Lebanon, where a heavily-armed Hezbullah lurks. But they are apparently looking for a way to bloody the Iranian allies in Lebanon before that. Egypt has been the focus of that with almost daily reports of uncovering Shi'a cells (sort of like uncovering Baptist cells in Massachusetts or Vermont). There is an intense and coordinated campaign by the Egyptian and vast Saudi media to soften public opinion for an assault by either or both (no, not an assault by these two Middle East wusses, they can't assault a crippled rabbi. I was talking about Israel and the US).

Aljazeera website, not yet a favorite of Arab ruling classes, reported yesterday a possible solution to the problem of crossing Arab-American lands on the way to Iran. It hints that some Arab F-16 jets may be repainted with Israeli marks to join the attacks (but the pilots will be Israelis, I assume, otherwise all will be lost).

“Israel learns empty boasting from Iran. For the nth thousandth time, we’ve lost count,…Israel getting ready to strike Iran” Middle East Online, apparently frustrated.

“Israeli strike could take place within hours…awaiting the green light…” A hopeful Alarabiya.

Editorials in the Saudi media like Asharq Alawsat, al-hayat, Alarabiya, and Elaph are almost solely focused on that Hezbullah-Egypt topic or something to do with secret cells spreading the Shi’a faith. Apparently every hired editorial writer and columnist is expected to contribute to the case, because they all have tediously. One chief editor and owner (alseyassah) has specialized in this: it takes up almost as much of his time as kissing prominent cheeks (if you are unfamiliar with the last term, look it up in the dictionary of vulgar vernacular, or is it a dictionary of human anatomy?).

Most of these editorials read like they were written by the same person and edited by the purported writer- after all how many different ways can you make the same point. Which reminds me: I should end this posting right now!
Cheers
Mohammed

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