Arabs, Burmese, and A Tale of Two Cities

Tale of Two Cities:
Burma (a.k.a Myanmar) News: “The ruling military junta declared that it has won a 92.3% approval of the constitutional referendum in the second statge of the referendum held in areas devastated by the hurricanes. Voter participation was put at 93% from a total of 4.5 million voters.” Florida, eat your heart out.

Cairo, Egypt News: “The Egyptian People’s Assembly has approved a two year extension of the emergency laws that have been in place since 1981.” The emergency laws allow the government to arrest people for long periods without trial, and it allows civilians to be tried in military courts (so that is why they are called military courts). Human rights organizations claim that many people in Egypt are held for ten years or longer without a trial.

The emergency rule was started when Husni Mubarak became president in 1981. Imagine, many, many Egyptians have spent all their lives not knowing any state other than a state of emergency. It is like a life sentence- with hard labor since you have to look at the leader's visage every day of your life, several times.
Soon, most Egyptians will have known only emergency rule.
Meanwhile, the country is fast moving past second rate Mideast country, and fast becoming a third rate Mideast country...third rate in the Middle East! Not an easy accomplishment. It is now the most famous sidkick of Saudi Arabia.
Isn't it great to be a citizen of the moderate New Middle East?

A Royal Jordanian gem:
King Abdul II, de Jourdanie, has stated that continuation of the Arab-Israeli dispute hampers development in the Middle East. His majesty also opined that the region will continue to suffer instability as long as the Palestinian issue is not resolved. (Damn, he should be appointed head of the IBDRD).

Whip it good:
Saudi authorities are trying to force parties to legal disputes to attend court session for their cases. Apparently absences delay rulings and crowd the courts. Now absentees may get whipped, as in flogged, for their absence. Alarabiya reports that judges may get the permission to impose prison and flogging sentences on these people.

Oil Zakat but no Chevron:
A theological committee of al-Azhar University in Cairo has recommended that a tithe tax (zakat) of 20% be imposed on oil revenues of all Islamic oil producers. It notes that Islamic law allows for one fifth tax on all Moslems.
Soon all will be cleared up when a certain phone call is made from Riyadh to Cairo. The call could as well come from Tehran, or even from Caracas for that matter. This is something that would even agitate Hugo Chavez.

Lebanon haggle:
The Lebanese are now haggling over the new cabinet, which will not be headed by either Mr. Saniora or Mr. Hariri. Saniora is certain to be gone: Arab media report that opposition ministers refused to attend a lunch invitation by the PM, which is a good indication that he can’t be the PM.

Bush vs the Potentates: A falling out?
Some Arab regimes of the moderate New Middle East are openly pissed at President Bush because he actually, for once, did the right thing. He urged increased reform and democratization, criticizing some o them. It has probably finally dawned on him that the potentates are not Jeffersonian democrats (small ‘d’), and that was his parting shot before he left the region.
The potentates and their media, will full participation from their house intellectuals, are blasting Mr. Bush. The question of a US-Iran deal to partition the region is being bandied about in the Saudi media again (they do that whenever they are miffed at the administration, and this time they have added Israel and Syria as the two sidekicks).
Maybe he is just realizing, in the waning pre-Crawford days, that some of these guys have been taking him for a ride for several years now.
Cheers
Mohammed

Tale of Two Cities:
Burma (a.k.a Myanmar) News: “The ruling military junta declared that it has won a 92.3% approval of the constitutional referendum in the second statge of the referendum held in areas devastated by the hurricanes. Voter participation was put at 93% from a total of 4.5 million voters.” Florida, eat your heart out.

Cairo, Egypt News: “The Egyptian People’s Assembly has approved a two year extension of the emergency laws that have been in place since 1981.” The emergency laws allow the government to arrest people for long periods without trial, and it allows civilians to be tried in military courts (so that is why they are called military courts). Human rights organizations claim that many people in Egypt are held for ten years or longer without a trial.

The emergency rule was started when Husni Mubarak became president in 1981. Imagine, many, many Egyptians have spent all their lives not knowing any state other than a state of emergency. It is like a life sentence- with hard labor since you have to look at the leader's visage every day of your life, several times.
Soon, most Egyptians will have known only emergency rule.
Isn't it great to be a citizen of the moderate New Middle East?

A Royal Jordanian gem:
King Abdul II, de Jourdanie, has stated that continuation of the Arab-Israeli dispute hampers development in the Middle East. His majesty also opined that the region will continue to suffer instability as long as the Palestinian issue is not resolved. (Damn, he should be appointed head of the IBDRD).

Whip it good:
Saudi authorities are trying to force parties to legal disputes to attend court session. Apparently absences delay rulings and crowd the courts. Now absentees may get whipped, as in flogged, for their absence. Alarabiya reports that judges may get the permission to impose prison and flogging sentences on these people.

Oil Zakat but no Chevron:
A theological committee of al-Azhar University in Cairo has recommended that a tithe tax (zakat) of 20% be imposed on oil revenues of all Islamic oil producers. It notes that Islamic law allows for one fifth tax on all Moslems.
Soon all will be cleared up when a certain phone call is made from Riyadh to Cairo. The call could as well come from Tehran, or even from Caracas for that matter. This is something that would even agitate Hugo Chavez.

Lebanon haggle:
The Lebanese are now haggling over the new cabinet, which will not be headed by either Mr. Saniora or Mr. Hariri. Saniora is certain to be gone: Arab media report that opposition ministers refused to attend a lunch invitation by the PM, which is a good indication that he can’t be the PM.

Bush vs the Potentates: A falling out?
Some Arab regimes of the moderate New Middle East are openly pissed at President Bush, because he actually, for once, did the right thing. He urged increased reform and democratization, criticizing some o them. It has probably dawned on him that the potentates are not Jeffersonian democrats (small ‘d’), and that was his parting shot before he left the region.
The potentates and their media, will full participation from their house intellectuals, are blasting Mr. Bush. The question of a US-Iran deal to partition the region is being bandied about in the Saudi media again (they do that whenever they are miffed at the administration and this time they have added Israel and Syria as the two sidekicks).
Maybe he is just realizing, in the waning pre-Crawford days, that some of these guys have been taking him for a ride for several years now.
Cheers
Mohammed

Media Notes
Lebanon, Syria and Joe Lieberman:
"Lebanon: permanent solution or a temporary break?"
I say: temporary break. If not, then the Bush administration has been forced to accept a huge defeat in that country after Hizbullah and its allies got almost all what they had demanded. Something must be brewing somewhere: my Middle Eastern conspiracy-sensitive nose tells me that.
So, was Lebanon really lost this week? And how did Joe Lieberman allow that to happen? Can he reverse it if he ever fulfills his new ambition and becomes McCain's Secretary of State?

"Hariri: discussion of Hizbullah weapons was started 'effectively' at Doha." Ah-huh, sure it was 'discussed', but only effectively.

"Solution does not resolve the deep-rooted issues in Lebanon." Were they supposed to?

"Olmert willing to go far in concessions for Syria, provided it breaks with Iran and Hizbullah."

"The enemy insists that Syria break its relations with Iran and Hizbullah" al-Manar, Hizbullah TV.
'The enemy' is the term traditionally used by Arab media and leaders for Israel. It is being used much less now, as reality has set in and delusions have evaporated.

"Italy considers Hamas the source of all evil in the Middle East" Arab quote of an Italian official.

Wagging the dog: "Olmert needs a Syrian breakthrough to divert attention from his corruption investigation scandal."

Algeria: oil, poverty, and human rights:
"Algeria drowns in oil money while its people drown in povery. Oil revenues exceed $81 billion and 40% of the people are below poverty."
And they don't even have ten thousand princes and princelings to support! The forever-ruling FLN of president Bouteflika is not done with the country. There is a lot more screwing, or is that screwing up, to do.

"Algerian woman sentenced to 3 years in prison for converting to Christianity. Six others face prosecution (persecution) for converting without official permission."
So that is how it is done in the more enlightened parts of the moderate New Middle East, the ones with Condi Rice's famous birth pangs of the summer of 2006. Or maybe those were not birth pangs, just the noises made by the select ones who received the cluster bombs dropped exclusively on the southern suburbs of Beirut.

In fairness, I must also mention the Hizbullah rockets that rained on civilian homes across the border in Israel, although those bombs were more 'equal opportunity' missiles and were not as 'selective' as the cluster bombs north of the Lebanese border.

Egyptians against stupidity, especially from the top:
Alarabiya reports that some Egyptians have started a new political movement aimed at reducing the "high levels of stupidity" in their country. It staretd by attacking many stupid state policies that encourage stupidity in the whole population.

They note certain patterns of stupid behavior by the general population as well, such as:
Accepting riding in an extremely overcrowded bus, rather than wait for the next one. (maybe they are not sure the next will be any better)
Not taking the time to read and understand their legal rights, which makes them easy victims for police and other state agents.
It also blames opposition parties that do not plan carefully to mobilize the people against corruption.

The movement, Citizens Against Stupidity (CAS), plans conferences, symposiums, and marches in order to reduce the level of stupidity in government decisions and policies. It also plans to coordinate with other organizations lik Citizens Against Inflation (CAI).

No report yet about what President Mubarak and his son and cabinet think of all that. I suspect they will take it personally, given that stupidity starts at the top (that is, it is a matter of the brain).
Speaking of stupidity at the top: I better check on the date of the next summit of Arab leaders.

Speaking of which, and perhaps as an intro for the next item: the media report that an Egyptian butcher was arrested this week for selling the meat of sick pigs and sick ass (as in jackass) as beef.
"Economic fears unsettle Americans. They reduce their consumption
of fuels but their appetite for food remains undiminished."
Cheers
Mohammed

Lebanon, Syria and Joe Lieberman:
"Lebanon: permanent solution or a temporary break?"
I say: temporary break. If not, then the Bush administration has been forced to accept a huge defeat in that country after Hizbullah and its allies got almost all what they had demanded. Something must be brewing somewhere: my Middle Eastern conspiracy-sensitive nose tells me that.
So, was Lebanon really lost this week? And how did Joe Lieberman allow that to happen? Can he reverse it if he ever fulfills his new ambition and becomes McCain's Secretary of State?

"Hariri: discussion of Hizbullah weapons was started 'effectively' at Doha." Ah-huh, sure it was 'discussed', but only effectively.

"Solution does not resolve the deep-rooted issues in Lebanon." Were they supposed to?

"Olmert willing to go far in concessions for Syria, provided it breaks with Iran and Hizbullah."

"The enemy insists that Syria break its relations with Iran and Hizbullah" al-Manar, Hizbullah TV
'the enemy' is the term traditionall6y used by Arab media and leaders for Israel. It is being used much less now, as reality has set in and delusions have evaporated.

"Italy considers Hamas the source of all evil in the Middle East" Arab quote of an Italian official.

Wagging the dog: "Olmert needs a Syrian breakthrough to divert attention from his corruption investigation scandal."

Algeria: oil, poverty, and human rights:
"Algeria drowns in oil money while its people drown in povery. Oil revenues exceed $81 billion and 40% of the people are below poverty."
And they don't even have ten thousand princes and princelings to support! The forever-ruling FLN of president Bouteflika is not done with the country. There is a lot more screwing, or is that screwing up, to do.

"Algerian woman sentenced to 3 years in prison for converting to Christianity. Six others face prosecution (persecution) for converting without official permission."
So that is how it is done in the more enlightened parts of the moderate New Middle East, the ones with Condi Rice's famous birth pangs of the summer of 2006. Or maybe those were not birth pangs, just the noises made by the select ones who received the cluster bombs dropped exclusively on the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Egyptians against stupidity, especially from the top:
Alarabiya reports that some Egyptians have started a new political movement aimed at reducing the "high levels of stupidity" in their country. It staretd by attacking many stupid state policies that encourage stupidity in the whole population.

They note certain patterns of stupid behavior by the general population as well, such as:
Accepting riding in an extremely overcrowded bus, rather than wait for the next one. (maybe they are not sure the next will be any better)
Not taking the time to read and understand their legal rights, which makes them easy victims for police and other state agents.
It also blames opposition parties that do not plan carefully to mobilize the people against corruption.

The movement, Citizens Against Stupidity (CAS), plans conferences, symposiums, and marches in order to reduce the level of stupidity in government decisions and policies. It also plans to coordinate with other organizations lik Citizens Against Inflation (CAI).
No report yet about what President Mubarak and his son and cabinet think of all that. I suspect they will take it personally, given that stupidity starts at the top, that is, it is a matter of the brain.
Speaking of stupidity at the top, when is the next summit of Arab leaders?

Speaking of which, and perhaps as an intro for the next item: the media report that an Egyptian butcher was arrested this week for selling pig meat and ass meat (as in jackass) as beef.
"Economic fears unsettle Americans. They reduce their consumtion
of fuels but their appetite for food remains undiminished."
Cheers
Mohammed

Bush visits, oil prices spike again:
Re: my maligned theory of causality between Bush-Cheney Middle East visits and crude oil prices.
Mr. Bush arrived in Saudi Arabia last week, but oil prices preceded him, upward. They moved up when he was en route and they moved up more after his arrival. With each visit, both Mr. Bush and King Abdullah, as well as a gaggle of princes, get richer. The American consumer ends up paying even more for his gasoline and for his heating gas.
And they said he is there to try and reduce crude prices. If he really wants to limit prices, he should stay put in Washington- or, better yet, go back to the ranch in Crawford.

Interesting how about a year ago a Saudi adviser threatened that his country could drown the world in oil and cut prices by half (that was when prices were close to $50-60 per barrel). The idea was that they can hurt the Iranian regime and weaken its influence in Iraq. At the time I suggested that would also hurt the Saudi regime, as they have high unemployment and need a large budget to keep their people happy. Not to mention the adverse effect on the lifestyles of the thousands of princcelings. I was right, n' est-ce pas? Oh, and that adviser was fired quickly, never to be heard from again.

Arab Media Headline Summary:
"The defeat of Hizbullah." (this is a gem, a classic doublespeak from the editor of the Saudi daily asharq alawsat.
"The legend of Hizbullah is finished."
"The leader of Hizbullah is finished."
"Eisenhower reaches Berlin. Eisenhower is finished!" That would be an equivalent 1945 headline in a German daily.

"Bush in Saudia to sign four accords about nuclear energy and protection of oil facilities."

"Hizbullah 'coup' is part of a new Middle East regional system of Iranian hegemony."

"Current Lebanese crisis has further marginalized the Christians."(That is because the Saudi media now dominating the New Middle East did its best to make the complex Lebanese political feud into a sectarian Shi'a-Sunni issue, thus marginalizing the Christians, about half of whom are allies of Hizbullah).

"Jumblatt: what happened is like a summer cloud, it will soon clear up. Concessions are needed." Now what is he up to???

"A new power equation in Lebanon that favors Hizbullah."

"Th great Iranian victory in Lebanon: our congratulations and condolences."

"Lebanon, in the State of Iran."

"The Lebanese crisis in its explosive sectarian phase."

"Washington has reservations on the solution reached to the Lebanese crisis."

"Arab solution: General Suleiman as president, and negotiations over the government."

"The Arab mediators need to return things to the way they were before May 8th." almustaqbal, the Hariri newspaper. (And how does one return all the toothpaste back into the tube? Oh, little silky one?)

"Bush celebrates the anniversary of the 'rape' of Palestine in Israel." Bahrain's Akhbar alkhaleej.

"A London restaurant offers its clients fish slaughtered according to Islamic Shri'a." So, now we have kosher fish.
Cheers
Mohammed

(This entry is from my other web site)

Le Mufti





Mr. Bush and oil prices:
Mr. Bush is heading to the Middle East again! Which means, if past history of such visits is any indication, that oil prices will start rising. Over the past two yeas at least, every time Mr. Bush or Mr. Cheney visited the region oil prices moved up at the end of their visit. This time oil prices spiked up before the visit, as soon as it was announced. The visit was partially discounted by the market. Today it moved up and I expect a brief pullback while he is enroute or on the first day of the trip, perhaps tomorrow or the day after. After that, some time over the next week, look out, it will rise again! The veto-proof Congressional vote today about replenishing the Strategic Reserve may help.

A Mufti has an epiphany, squeals:
In the Arab countries, in fact in almost all Moslem countries, there is someone called a Mufti. he issues religious edict that get a lot of publicity. A Mufti, however, is in fact no more than a religious bureaucrat appointed by the ruler (king, emir, president-for-life, etc.). He always issues edicts that agree with whatever the current ruler's policies are. I do not recall a mufti ever issuing an edict criticizing the government, or disagreeing with its policies. A mufti's job is to support and justify the ruler's actions.

Today the Mufti of Saudi Arabia (the dapper bearded gentleman in the photo above) issued a fatwa, a religious edict during a lecture that Hizbullah does not belong to Islam. He did not explain how he came upon such information, or when he had the epiphany. (In fact the mufti never believed that Shi'as of any stripe belong to Islam).

He said that Hizbullah cooperates with the "Jews", and that it prepares the ground for the entry of Jews and other heathens into the land of Islam.

The Mufti is Shaikh Abdulaziz al-Shaikh, his last name indicating that he is a descendant of Mohammed Bin Abdulwahab the founder of the Wahhabism, the very same ideology that has given us the Salafis, al-Qaeda, Taliban, al-Zarqawi and UBL. He is not to be confused with the great Mohammed Abdelwahab, the late great Egyptian composer and singer who was not a Wahhabi and had nothing with such fundamentalist ideology, as far as I know.

Comments on Lebanon:
My version: The Lebanese are probably the biggest idiots in the Arab world, no mean feat. Every generation or so their warlords start another civil war for which they invariably blame outsiders. They may be right this time: part of the blame lies with the regional and foreign backers of BOTH sides.

Elaph (Saudi) agonizes over "How the Hariri militias collapsed within hours?". It headlines that "fighters assert their leaders betrayed them." It quotes the LA Times that Mr. Hariri depended on hired mercenaries from a specialized company to fight his battles for him. It notes that they surrendered quickly to Hizbullah fighters who truned them over to the Lebanese army. So much for motivation.

Others note that the cabinet will agree to a deal whereby it rescinds its decision about the airport security chief and Hizbullah cimmunications, and the Hizbullah will end the civil disobedience. Probably a non-starter. Most likely Hariri and Co. will agree with the army and rescind the cabinet decisions unilaterally.

Asharq alawsat (Saudi) agonizes over the neutrality of the Lebanese Army: "What a starnge Army!" an article headlines (To which I say: relax, it is only a typical Arab army). Except that the Lebanese Army must remain neutral, otherwise it won't be a "Lebanese army", it would break up into its factions and sects. Maybe this is what they want for it.

The Saudi al-watan editorial warns that "Time is not on our side. It is on the side of al-Qaeda and Hizbullah." Except that al-Qaeda is not related to Hizbullah: it is closer to the editor and his bosses than to Hizbullah.

Mamoun Fandy, who is close to the Saudis and is with one of the "think" tanks in Washington, writes in a Kuwaiti daily (aljareeda) warning against an "Iranian Lobby" in Egypt. Now I have heard everything: an Iranian lobby in Egypt! This is like warning of an Obama lobby in West Virginia. He reminds me of the man at the corner of Telegraph Avenue and Bancroft years ago: he carried a sign that said "The End is Near".

A Jordanian writer who lives in the US has a cute take on events: the battles and the defeat of the Saniora-Hariri were part of a trap set for Hiizbullah, and it fell for it! De Nial is a river in Egypt!

Both Mr. Bush and the Lebanese leaders get some severe criticism. There are hints in the media of the moderate New Middle East (with all the birth pangs) that the rump-cabinet was betrayed by its foreign (and Arab?) friends. That they were encouraged to challenge Hizbullah and were not supported when it foolishly did so.
Cheers
Mohammed

The Mufti





(This is reproduced from my other web site of last night: www.ArabiaDeserta.com):
Mr. Bush and oil prices:
Mr. Bush is heading to the Middle East again! Which means, if past history of such visits is any indication, that oil prices will start rising. Over the past two yeas at least, every time Mr. Bush or Mr. Chebey visited the region oil prices moved up at the end of their visit. This time oil prices spiked up before the visit, as soon as it was announced. The visit was partially discounted by the market. Today it moved up and I expect a brief pullback while he is enroute or on the first day of the trip, perhaps tomorrow or the day after. After that, some time over the next week, look out, it will rise again! The veto-proof Congressional vote today about replenishing the Strategic Reserve may help.

A Mufti has an epiphany, squeals:
In the Arab countries, in fact in almost all Moslem countries, there is someone called a Mufti. he issues religious edict that get a lot of publicity. A Mufti, however, is in fact no more than a religious bureaucrat appointed by the ruler (king, emir, president-for-life, etc.). He always issues edicts that agree with whatever the current ruler's policies are. I do not recall a mufti ever issuing an edict criticizing the government, or disagreeing with its policies. A mufti's job is to support and justify the ruler's actions.

Today the Mufti of Saudi Arabia (the dapper bearded gentleman in the photo above) issued a fatwa, a religious edict during a lecture that Hizbullah does not belong to Islam. He did not explain how he came upon such information, or when he had the epiphany. (In fact the mufti never believed that Shi'as of any stripe belong to Islam).

He said that Hizbullah cooperates with the "Jews", and that it prepares the ground for the entry of Jews and other heathens into the land of Islam.

The Mufti is Shaikh Abdulaziz al-Shaikh, his last name indicating that he is a descendant of Mohammed Bin Abdulwahab the founder of the Wahhabism, the very same ideology that has given us the Salafis, al-Qaeda, Taliban, al-Zarqawi and UBL. He is not to be confused with the great Mohammed Abdelwahab, the late great Egyptian composer and singer who was not a Wahhabi and had nothing with such fundamentalist ideology, as far as I know.

Comments on Lebanon:
My version: The Lebanese are probably the biggest idiots in the Arab world, no mean feat. Every generation or so their warlords start another civil war for which they invariably blame outsiders. They may be right this time: part of the blame lies with the regional and foreign backers of BOTH sides.

Elaph (Saudi) agonizes over "How the Hariri militias collapsed within hours?". It headlines that "fighters assert their leaders betrayed them." It quotes the LA Times that Mr. Hariri depended on hired mercenaries from a specialized company to fight his battles for him. It notes that they surrendered quickly to Hizbullah fighters who truned them over to the Lebanese army. So much for motivation.

Others note that the cabinet will agree to a deal whereby it rescinds its decision about the airport security chief and Hizbullah cimmunications, and the Hizbullah will end the civil disobedience. Probably a non-starter. Most likely Hariri and Co. will agree with the army and rescind the cabinet decisions unilaterally.

Asharq alawsat (Saudi) agonizes over the neutrality of the Lebanese Army: "What a starnge Army!" an article headlines (To which I say: relax, it is only a typical Arab army). Except that the Lebanese Army must remain neutral, otherwise it won't be a "Lebanese army", it would break up into its factions and sects. Maybe this is what they want for it.

The Saudi al-watan editorial warns that "Time is not on our side. It is on the side of al-Qaeda and Hizbullah." Except that al-Qaeda is not related to Hizbullah: it is closer to the editor and his bosses than to Hizbullah.

Mamoun Fandy, who is close to the Saudis and is with one of the "think" tanks in Washington, writes in a Kuwaiti daily (aljareeda) warning against an "Iranian Lobby" in Egypt. Now I have heard everything: an Iranian lobby in Egypt! This is like warning of an Obama lobby in West Virginia. He reminds me of the man at the corner of Telegraph Avenue and Bancroft years ago: he carried a sign that said "The End is Near".

A Jordanian writer who lives in the US, a Mr. al-Nabulsi, has a cute take on events: the battles and the defeat of the Saniora-Hariri were part of a trap set for Hiizbullah, and it fell for it! De Nial is a river in Egypt- n'est-ce pas?!

Both Mr. Bush and the Lebanese leaders get some severe criticism. There are hints in the media of the moderate New Middle East (with all the birth pangs) that the rump-cabinet was betrayed by its foreign (and Arab?) friends. That they were encouraged to challenge Hizbullah and were not supported when it foolishly did so.
Cheers
Mohammed

The pro-Saudi rump cabinet of Lebanon has suffered a stinging political and military defeat this week. It was an unnecessary defeat that they walked into through blunder. Or perhaps they were trapped into it by the mouth of Walid Jumblatt, their Druze warlord ally. A good measure of the defeat is the reaction of their financiers and friends in the region to recent events in Beirut:

A pissed-off Asharq alawsat, mouthpiece of Saudi Prince Salman, said today that there are two sides in Lebanon: thugs and "respectable" ones, armed ones and civilians, outlaws and those who are law-abiding.

Even the somnolent President Husni Mubarak of Egypt (80 years this week) awoke from his long nap to assert that he will not allow a force supported by Iran to dominate Lebanon. President Mugabe Mubarak them went back to his 27 year old nap.

Aalquds alarabi notes that when Messrs Saniora, Hariri, and Jumblatt, find themselves trapped in their headquarters, this is a clear indication of where the balance of power in Lebanon lies. It specualtes that perhaps the American-Saudi-Israeli axis forced this issue in order to show Hizbullah as a militia that would use its force not just against the Israelis, but also against fellow Lebanese. In fact reaction in some Saudi media outlets seem to support this point of view.

It looks like the Lebanese cabinet, what is left of it, has just lost a battle of nerves, wills, and arms with the oppposition led by Hizbullah. Mr. Hariri, the real leader of the pro-government and Saudi Arabia's man in Beirut, called on the army to arbitrate. The army did just that yesterday: it rescinded the cabinet decision to fire the chief of airport security and to dimantle the Hizbullah communications network.

It is not clear why the cabinet took its earlier decision, right after Druze warlord Jumblatt unexpectedly called for such measures. Speculation is that the rump-cabinet was promised support, otherwise it would not have the guts to act on its own in such a provocative way. Presumably, some Arab media hint, it was encouraged by its Saudi-American paymasters.

Mr. Hariri returned recently from somewhere outside of Lebanon, materializing right before the crisis. He owns homes in Saudi Arabia and Paris, among other places. He was doing a Muqtada (as in al-Sadr) by vanishing among his foreign and regional friends in times of crisis. This time, after Hizbullah routed the militias of the rump-cabinet, the neutral Lebanese army has spoken, and it has handed the pro-cabinet forces a stinging political defeat to match their military defeat.

al-Manar TV, mouthpiece of Hizbullah, claims that Hariri returned with strong Saudi prmises of support. It also claims that the Bush administration has promised to increase pressure on the Syrian regime through massing naval forces and bringing up the issue of a possible nuclear program. It also reports that Hariri has sent a delegation including 11 Shi'as to Washington, with the goal of proving to Congressmen that all Lebanese Shi'as do not support Hizbullah. Now we know that at least 11 of them do not.

The pro-cabinet media charges that Iran is trying too reach the Mediterranean through Lebanon. The opposition charges that the Saudis are trying to extend their influence to the shores of the Mediteranean through Mr. Hariri and Mr. Saniora in Lebanon. Both are partly right and they know it. The situation in Lebanon is more complex than the mere Shi'a-Sunni and Iranian-American conflict. At least half of Lebanon's Christians are siding with Hizbullah and Amal, as do some prominent Sunnis. even though the Saudi media tries hard to make it into a sectarian conflict and sharpen the lines.
Cheers
Mohammed

(This entry is from my web site):
The Rice and Bush Oil Effect:
Crude prices passed $122 this morning, which proves my theory of a strong causality between the movements of Air Forces One & Two and oil prices. Anyone remember my often stated theory that oil prices are directly related to visits by high US officials to the Middle East? How visits by President Bush and Mr Cheney are immediately followed by crude price hikes? Now we can add Condi Rice to the list of oil price movers.
Only last week there was serious talk of oil going down below $100, perhaps back to $80 or less, the wild Nigerian guerrillas and striking oil workers nontwithstanding. The bullish predictions of Professor Economides were pooh poohed by market 'analysts', even though he has been right more often than most of them.
Then it was announced that Secretary Rice is going to the Mddle East in order to, get this, prepare the ground for yet ANOTHR Bush visit. I was out of town two days ago and missed the implications. I missed the spike in prices that followed the next day. I could kick myself for missing the sure signals to make some money, if I could, that is.

It looks like Mr. Bush, Mr. Cheney, and Ms. Rice will manage to keep oil prices robust for the rest of their term. Now, if Cheney has Halliburton holdings in some kind of a lockbox, then the lockbox will be unlocked come January and, voila! It sure beats having bought property in California’s Inland Empire or along Florida’s geriatric strip. And if there is to be a third Bush term under John McCain...

A Long Hot Summer:
Things are heating up in the old and New Middle East. It looks like like it is possible to have more of Condi Rice’s famous bang-bang birth pangs before the end of the year, either in Iraq, Iran, or over Lebanon.

In Lebanon, the frustrated rump cabinet (of part of Beirut) has transferred the general who is chief of airport security for being too soft on Hizbullah. The rump cabinet accused Hizbullah of operating its own communications systm (is that like Verizon?) and installing spy cameras around the airport. Imagine, spying on your political, and potential military, rivals. What is Lebanon coming to.

The issue came to head after Druze warlord Jumblatt was assigned the role of raising it noisily as is his style, and he called for removal of the airport security chief. The opposition, including Hizbullah, retorted that this is part of a plan to internationalise Beirut Airport and its surroundings and place them under foreign control. I am not sure what foreign country will want to place its troops anywhere near Beirut airport, even if they are under UN command. The area had a tragic history during the 1980s. Lebanese alliances are notoriously unstable and treacherous- just look at General Oun and Waleed Jumblatt.
Hizbullah has rejected the charges and refuses to dismantle its communications network. The cabinet considers the network as impinging on its authority, but the opposition does not recognize that authority. This network has been talked about in the media of the moderate New Middle East for over a year now, which means that something may be brewing for the summer.

Of course the selection of a Lebanese president has been postponed again. With the economy moving along as it is doing, does anybody other than the rival warlords really care? It may get postponed indefinitely, until either the Second Coming or until the Mahdi reappears, whichever comes first.

Iran is back in the crosshairs, this time for both the nuclear issue and for things it may be doing in Iraq against US soldiers with its devices. The question of who will “take out” the mullahs is being bandied about in some Gulf newspapers. Some newspapers seem to think that once the United States, or Israel, bomb some sites in Iran, probably the worng sites, then everything will be just fine on the shores of our Gulf: all the potentates will hold hands and sing Kumbaya forever.
But wasn’t that what we thought when Saddam was in the crosshairs? And years before that when the earlier mullahs were in Saddam's crosshairs? And years before that when the shah was in Khomeini's crosshairs? As Pete Seeger said "Oh, when will they ever learn"?

Family Awards and Blue-Collar Kings
This has been a month of more awards in the Arab world.
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has received the Abu Bakr Award (Abu-Bakr, the Second Caliph, no less) of the first class from the Arab Organization for the Red Crescent and Red Cross. This was in appreciation of his humanitarian efforts. This is the third or fourth award his majesty has received so far this year. And how many has Bush received? For that matter: how many did Mother Teresa receive?

Princess al-Jawhara (the Jewel, or is it the Gem) has received an ward from the King of Bahrain for aiding (and abetting?) the Arabian Gulf University and establishing a medical research center.

The one award that was not within the family was largely ignored by the local press. It was given to a Saudi human rights activist, an independent one not of those sanctioned and appointed by the rulers. He is A. al-Lahim and the award is from the American Bar Association. But he won’t have a gaggle of princes to fete him. He is banned from traveling and has been disbarred to boot. So, no schnapps at the zwolf-apostelkeller for him next July, that is if he is so inclined.

Mr. al-Lahim was gracious enough to state that the award is a crowning achievement for human rights in his country. He may yet get to Vienna, but only with a “magnanimous” kingly decision (that is, a decision by the king). Arab potentates love doing this type of theatrics: at the last minute they pardon someone who was never guilty. They can teach Hillary Clinton a few things about public politicking- but she has them beat in one respect:they can never claim to come from blue-collar roots. Whatever color they are, they are not blue.
Cheers
Mohammed

The Martian, Iraq, and Iran:
Is the war in Iraq still going on? Or has the mission been finally accomplished? That may be the impression a proverbial Martian would get from watching cable news channels: Fox, CNN, MSNBC, etc.
(Of course if he watched Fox News every day, he would wonder if it is not about time to start a new overdue war with some place called Iran, which confuses him).

The Martian and Polygamy:
He, the Martian, or she the Martianette would think that a retired black pastor with a small moustache and a smirk for the deserving cable TV cameras is the main problem facing the planet Earth.
Had the Martian landed last week, he would have thought that a desert compound for a polygamist sect was the main problem facing the planet Earth. He would note with amusement the location of the compound in a place called Texas eerily resembling some of the arid lands near Valles Marineris.
He hears that this Texas place is supposed to be renowned for its steers and beers, among other things. He is surprised that they are still not sure who won in the elections in Texas, but he thinks it funny that people in another place called Florida do not seem able to organize a smooth vote.

Hill, Bill, cojones and chest hair:
A labor official pushed Hillary Clinton's candidacy today by stating that the country needs a president with "testicular fortitude" a.k.a balls, cojones. In that case perhaps Mrs. Clintoin can enjoy the benefits of a good niche Lebanese film called "Caramel". The film evolves around women in a salon that specializes in hair removal: they use the sweet sticky brown stuff and they munch on it. But the film is almost a chick flick, which may be dangerous territory for the recently macho New York Senator. It certainly will not put any hair on her chest.
No, Rocky Balboa never made it to that salon in Beirut, but maybe Rambo did, which puts it right up the alley of the self-annointed obliteratrix.

The Martian and Democrats:
Somewhere in between these two weeks, the Martian would have thought that the whole planet was concerned with the strenuous efforts of an affable white-haired man, elegantly dressed, in offering up his wife who apparently likes to wear pantsuits. He would not know what he is offering her for. Is she for sale? Is she offered as a sacrificial non-virgin for some peculiar god? Is he trying to get rid of her in order to buy a new wife?

He would hear about someone named Obama and hear questions about whether he has distanced himself enough from something or someone named 'the reverend'. He would conclude that this Obama is some sort of evil spirit that threatens the planet. That is, if Martians believe in evil spirits.

He would hear the same reports and the same mantra repeated all days, for many days, and he wonders why. Then it dawns on him that perhaps these Earth people are either natural slow learners, or perhaps the news anchor people are as dumb as those distant Mercurians he had met. He notes that some of them, including a loud famous radio commentator, pride themselves on coming from a place called the "show me state", which reinforces his conviction that they are too dull to imagine, and that they need to be shown everything.

The Martian would also wonder about some unseen super-creatures so powerful that he cannot imagine what they look like. Creatures that apparently no ordinary human can see, let alone a humble Martian. Creatures only whispered about in the repetitive cable TV newsrooms and in the other corridors of power. And he would wonder: who the hell are these super-delegates?

Cheers
Mohammed

Nimium Papa: Is the Pope Arab?
Embedded Military Experts, Muqtada, and Hillary's Blank Cheque.
Oddest new regulation: Extreme Red Light laws on the Gulf.

Nimium Papa:
The Pope is a good person. I am sure the last three Popes, at least, were all good, nice people. Things get a little murky as we move away beyond those three or four latest ones. Other Popes way back in history werre not so nice, especially the Borgia Pope Alexander the nth- according to Mario Puzo anyway. In fairness, the history of Islamic top banansa has not been any better over the centuries, most have died violently or suspiciously prematurely. I am not sure about the Jews: perhaps they were kept too busy over the past two millennia to develop an omnipotent and rapacious hierarchy like the two latecomers.

The Pope deserves a lot of attention on his US visit, since it is a rare visit, mercie a dieu, Gott sie dank!

But I can't turn on any news channel today without seeing His Holiness, or mediaheads parsing his every word as if he is running for the Democratic nomination. This place has looked, at least on TV, as fundamentalist as my homeland on the Gulf. It reminds me of the ubiquitous kings and presidents of the Arab world, those potentates whose every move is broadcast on state TV evey day. (Hey, he did reduce TV time for the Texas polygamists, which is not a bad thing).

The good news is that he will be gone in a few hours. The Arab kings and dictators, unfortunately, will be on television, haunting their peoples, boring them to death each and every day.

Embedded Military Experts, Muqtada, and Hillary's Blank Cheque:
Finally we learn that all those retired generals and colonels embedded with the cable news networks as experts are moles, planted by the administration to push its foreign policy, especially about Iraq and Iran. The exception may be the Fox News fair 'n balanced military "experts".

Muqtada al-Sadr is threatening all out our if his Mahdi militia are not left alone and US-Iraqi assaults on their areas not ended.

Hillary Clinton is doing anything she can to look macho, short of growing a moustache. She has just issued a blank cheque covering all moderate New Middle East countries, which on the face of it is welcome news to the countries concerned. But it complicates things in the region. Still, she will never out-McCain McCain.

Senator McCain says he will act "quickly and decisively" on the economy. How? Ba, ba, ba, bomb inflation...
He also said that "time for partisan debate in the United Sttes is over". I wasn't aware that the elections were over.

In case anybody has noticed: the Lebanese have not yet agreed on selecting a new president, not that it matters anymore. The country may be functioning better than a few months, or even a year ago. Perhaps all Arab states should pack their heads of state to a vacation somewhere in Europe, to their London or PAris mansions, and try to get along a la Rodney King?

Oddest new regulation: In one Gulf state, the Ministry of Interior (in charge of police and immigration) has ruled that all foreigners who drive through a red traffic light will be deported. The first two "victims" were Syrians.
Queston: what happens if a Saudi or an Egyptian runs a red light? What if it is a citizen mof the country? Will he be shot?
Cheers
Mohammed

Oil Prices and Politicians:
Oil prices keep rising, days after Vice President Cheney departed the Middle East. Was my (direct) causality pop-analysis correct ? It is correct as far as it goes: oil prices HAVE risen for some time after each visit by Mr. Bush or Mr. Cheney. Not sure about the (statistical) significance, though. There are dips, but the trend ratchets upward. When Cheny left, crude sold for about $100, today it is above $108.

Iraqi Game of Chicken:
News reports that Iraq's al-Maliki has given Muqtada al-Sadr and his followers an ultimatum to lay down their arms. Fine, but should he not also give a similar ultimatum to the equally bloody various armed Sunni militias of the Awakening Councils? Especially in view of the fact that they recognize his government even less than the Sadrists do.
AL-Maliki also threatened today to prevent al-Sadr and his followers from participating in the political process if they do not disarm. Did he just give a hint to one major reason behind the abrupt Basra campaign that was aborted? Are the October provincial elections involved as some have hinted?
It is not clear whether he has the "constitutional" right to do that, or if he is just reverting to Iraq's past and doing it a l'Arab. Th Sadrists today rejected the ultimatum.

Egyptians Restless, Finally:
Egypt's rulers have mobilized the security forces to prevent a national strike for one day. The streets of Cairo saw something they have not seen in many years, Egyptians protesting and resisting. I knew that the stoic Egyptians patience had limits, somewhere. People wrre on the streets, but so were the goons of the regime.

Meanwhile, the Number Two moderate country of the New Middle East has disqualified several thousand candidates of the opposition Muslim Brotherhood, leaving only about 20 to run, according to Arab press reports. This looks suspiciously close to the disqualification tactics of the mullahs in Iran. (For those who don't know: Saudi Arabia is the Number One country of the New Middle East, but they have no election problems, none whatsoever. By that standard, Saudi Arabia is by far more of a Number Two in this case). The Brotherhood, the main opposition party, decided to stop playing in this charade and boycot the upcoming "selections".

Egyptians are hungry and desperate, the vast majority of them. Many of them are probably fed up with the prospect of having President Mubarak (80 years and in power for 27 years) with them for the rest of their lives in the person of his son Gamal, his Dauphin.

Two Tales of One City:
Speaking of Egypt and hunger: a daily columnist in the al-watan daily, published in Kuwait, yesterday covered the crisis in Egypt by recalling a recent visit to Alexandria with some potentate. He wrote with relish that they devoured pounds of fresh shrimp and calamari, as well as several lobsters each, among other exotic seafoods such as cioppino and grilled fishes. In view of the Egyptian protests about the price and scarcity of bread, he noted that the restaurant had its own bakery. The total bill came to about US $200- which is reasonable as far as that goes. Presumaby the man tactfully left out the wine bill.
He was probably trying to tell us about how good life can be in the New Middle East.

Demographics, Sectarianism and Lies in Bahrain:
Shi''a activists and politicians in Bahrain have been complaining that the government (controlled by Sunnis) has been issuing national identity to foreigners from such places as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Jordan. The goal is to chnage the demogrphics of a country that is over 70% Shi'as, but whose economy and politics are dominated by ruling Sunnis.
The Bahrain government has continuously denied the charge. Some Shi'a parliamentarians have tried to question the relevant ministers, and to force votes of no confidence in them, but pro-government and Salafi members have managed to prevent that, so far.
Bahrain's rulers deny that any discrimination exists against its Shi'a majority, and have steadfastly refused to take measures to redress their grievances. Bahrain is too small for its resources to be shared by all its people.

The Economist noted this last weekend that the population of Bahrain has been increasing at an annual average rate of about 2.4%. Then, it noted, that total population jumped by 41% last year, and that the number of citizens increased by 15%. Fifteen percent! Which has made the down-trodden Shi'as go ballistic.
Still, the government of Bahrain continues to deny the charges.

Arabian Chuzpah:
An article in an Arab newspaper criticizes Raul Castro of Cuba for lack of freedoms in his country. It is a simple question of which kettle is blacker. But i think I know the reasom for this focus on Cuba. It is a symbolic call for freedom, but not in Cuba. The writer does not want to step on any local toes, so old Raul comes in handy.
Cheers
Mohammed

The Battle for Basrah: will Baghdad and other towns pay the price?
The Jihadists' own March Madness, but without the Tarheels.
Are al-Qaeda and Bin Laden fearing irrelevance? Are they bored? Why not get some new wives?
Libya's entertaining Qaddafi does it again: he opines on Bush doing the Hajj and on Shi'as.
The logic of eschatology and logic.
Saudi bully tactics and the fading Arab summit institution.

The Battle for Basrah: will Baghdad pay the price?:
The battle for Basrah rages, as it has been for some time now, but with some new players. Now Iraq has become more 'fair and balanced'. The government, with US help, is fighting not only Sunni terrorists, but also renegade Shia militias. The emphasis is on "renegade": the Awakening Councils and the sanctioned Shi'a militias are not "renegades", not yet.

It is possible that, with the push to stabilize Basrah, there is the danger of destabilizing large sections of Baghdad. Unrest is already spreading, and many Sadristas are itching for a fight, except their 'nominal' leader who seems to have switched to civil disobedience. Maybe he does not think the time ripe for a battle, he has a history of pullng back from a battle when it suited him, as he did in 2004 and 2007.

Basrah need to be pacified for Iraq to begin to achieve some normalcy, hopefully a different one form the pre-2003 normalcy. Basrah is the sea gateway to Iraq, and its main oil city, which explains the continued inter-Shi'a fighting over it. It also explains the periodic emergence of some new "apocalyptic" armed groups in its vicinity, groups that Iraqis claim are financed by petro-money from some neighboring countries (other than Iran which already supports some well-known groups).

Do al-Qaeda and Bin Laden fear irrelevance?
UBL and his sidekick must be going through their own March Madness somewhere out there. That must be the explanation for their recent behavior: men don't suffer PMS.

Al-Qaeda has blown its chances in Iraq, at least for now but most likely forever. It has handed all those resentful Sunni tribals who would rather sup with the devil than break bread with the Shi’a al-Maliki, handed them to someone even worse according to their doctrine, the full-fledged American kaffir heathen. The very same who overthrew the Arab nation’s last not-so-white hope (not sure hope for what other than self destruction) and opened the door for the installation of the Shi’as and Kurds in power.

It is enough to make a gas-throwing genocidal officer of the Old Ba’ath Army cringe- that would be the same army, the third world tribal shell Wehrmacht that five-year later cable TV quarterbacks of the media are regretting that it was disbanded.

Al-Qaeda seems to be having a fire sale: new tapes from UBL and al-Zawahiri have been handed out furiously this month- threatening evrybody, including the Europeans as well as that old staple, Israel. They are as usual repetitive: it must be boring for them up there in the tribal Pashtun areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan. One advice: get a new wife or two, you both must be short of the regulation four wives by now, what with all the raids and strikes.

Turns out that the Jordanian butcher al-Zarqawi was probably al-Qaeda’s last best hope in Iraq, that his demise was the beginning of the end for AQI, and the end of the only battlefield for UBL in the Arab world. His death sucked the air out of the Salafi fundamentalist militants in the Arab East, demoralized them. Now they are thriving on the pereiphery of the Arab world, places they would rather not be: like Algeria, Afghanistan and Pakistan. When they would rather be in the Big Apple, in the area from Egypt through the Levant to Iraq and the (Persian) Gulf. Everyone wants to be in the Big Apple, but lately al-Qaeda has been dealt only ‘camel apples’. Even the Saudis have managed to thwart all their plans in the Kingdom, their natural and literal home base.

But never fear: it is resurgent in Afghanistan, for now. It is down in Pakistan, for now: but will grow again as the new alliance of the corrupt Bhutto-Zardari and Sharif tightens its grip. As the kleptocracy starts to do what kleptocracies can't resist doing- kelpting or kleptocrating?.

The GOP may keep UBL as a campaign poster for the November elections, but that would be a double-edged sword. Now that they have “the” national security candidate. Now that he knows the difference between Sunni Wahhabi fundamentalist al-Qaeda and Shi'a fundamentalist al-Mahdi Sadristas. He also knows the difference between the Jewish Purim and the American Halloween, courtesy of Joe Lieberman, the “real” national security expert.

Libya's Qaddafi Does it Again: On Mecca and Shia's:
Colonel Qaddafi has a knack for irritating some other Arab leaders, especially the Saudi royals in recent years. That is why he is the most entertaining Arab leader to listen to: he is the only one who does not bore you to sleep (or death), at least not for the first hour. The other Arab leaders make one yawn just looking at them.
This week Qaddafi was at it again, again infuriating the Saudis and their media by touching on two topics that are very "touchy" for them: the sanctity of the (Kaaba) Holy Shrine at Mecca, and the treatment of Shi'as in many Arab countries. These are subjects that are not to be discussed in genteel company, especially genteel Wahhabi company.

First, the colonel literally invited George W. Bush to walk around the Kaaba as many times as he wants, if he wants- which is doubtful, unless he decides not to have a third Bush term. He contends that it is the house of God, an hence should be open to all who believe in Him: i.e to people of all monotheist religions, incluing Christians and Jews. The colonel does not know that Zaroastrians are also monotheists- notr does almost anybody else.
He said the pilgrimage to Mecca preceded the Prophet Mohammed and Islam, which is true. Pagan Arab tribes used to go on pilgrimage long before Islam, when the Kaaba was lined with statues of pagan idol gods. Again, for the second time he said that Mr. Bush should have the right to go since he is a person of the book (Christian or Jew). He really wants Bush to do the Hajj, but the logic of eschatology sometimes defies....logic.

Second, Qaddafi reiterated that Shi'as are "persecuted" in Arab states, often treated as second or third class citizens. He did not mention Saudi Arabia by name, but if the shoe fits one often tends to wear it.
Qaddafi also blasted the Salafi Wahhabi doctrine, without naming it, for criticizing some faiths for "idolizing" the prophets, for example celebrating the birth of the Prophet. H noted that the Quran mentions Mohammed, Jesus, Moses, Mariam (Mary) many times, which they might consider a form of idlolatry.

Much of Arab media, especially in the Gulf, ignored the speech which for some reason was delivered in Uganda, although one Lebanese daily and Aafaq reported it. The colonel immediately drew the ire of the vast Saudi media, which again criticized him severely, without mentioning the contents of his speech.

The Saudis are pissed again, and there is no doubt they will send a royal janitor to Tripoli next time the Arab summit is scheduled for Libya. They are doing marginally better by the coming Summit in Damascus: they are sending a royal doorman (ends with an 'n' not a 't').

Saudi Bully Tactics and a Fading Summit:
Saudi Arabia and a few other allies are trashing the Arab summit in Damascus. They are punishing the Syrian regime for not toeing the line in Lebanon. Clearly the Saudis would like to see all over the Arab world the same uniform conformity that they have apparently managed to enforce at home.
They have downgraded their delegation to the coming summit in Damascus as a punishment. As I noted above, the Kingdom is practically sending a royal doorman to represent it.

The rump Lebanese cabinet has decided to boycott altogether. It has published a long litany of reaons that it will not attend, but the list did not include the one probable true reason: the Saudis, who have at least as much influence on the Hariri-Saniora group as Iran has over Hizbullah, probably more, have downgraded the Summit. They are sending someone who cannot speak for the kingdom, thereby effectively boycotting it.

Of course the moves by Saudi Arabia and Egypt are not just insulting to Syria, they are also insulting to all Arab leaders who will attend. King Abdul de Jourdanie has predictably decided to boycott. This is not a Syrian Summit, it just happens to be scheduled in Damascus: it is an "Arab" Summit, but the despots don't see that.
This basically ends the institution of Arab summits: next year it will be boycotted by the other side. Which may not be a bad thing: as I have written earlier, these meetings do nothing for the peoples.

VP Cheney's visit last week to the New Middle East has also been noted, and some claim that it was partly aimed at stiffening the boycot of the Summit. The Syrians are already blaming the US for the "attendance problem", aka the truancy of several kings and presidents-for-life.
Cheers
Mohammed

How has the Bush administration empowered OPEC?
Ex-oilmen and high crude prices.
Causality between Mideast visits and oil prices.
Bush and Iran's Nukes: will the mullahs retain Alan Dershowitz?
Shi'a fundamentalism vs. Bible Belt Sunni fundamentalism.
A new positive church-mosque debate in Arabia.
Finally, did McCain really mix up a Jewish holiday with Halloween?
Wasn't it bad enough mixing al-Qaeda with al-Sadr?

Who Empowered OPEC?
Robert Samuelson notes in Newsweek that OPEC has finally reached the point where it controls the crude oil market. It is official, it is now a true blue cartel, perhaps for the first time.

I find it interesting that it has taken a Republican administration run by two ex-oilmen obsessed with national security to finally consolidate the cartel's control- to finally empower all those in power in Tehran, Riyadh and Caracas. A long 34 years after Kissinger's IEA (International Energy Agency). This is a feat even Jimmy Carter could not achieve, blunder as he may on energy matters.
Maybe oil is thicker than blood to the ex-oilmen: the blood that has already been spilt and the blood of those soldiers in harm's way.

It has also taken the same two ex-oilmen riding out from the West to empower Iran's rulers, financially and, as a natural consequence, politically. Iran's daily crude production is at well over 4 million b/d. The prices it receives for the high levels of export are also at historically high levels, at least in nominal terms. Its influence across the Middle East has never been stronger in the past three centuries. As I wrote here many months ago, the old Saudi threat to drown the markets with crude in order to cause a price collapse and weaken the ruling mullahs was just frustrated talk.
Maybe the ex-oilmen had looked into the eyes of Hugo Chaves and the others, the moderate neo-domocrats (small D) of the New Middle East, and had seen through into their souls, and seen the kindred souls, or is it spirits, of fellow oilmen.

Paranoia time:
One more, odd, observation and it is highly suspicious. Last January Mr. Bush made a much publicized tour of the moderate New Middle East, a near-victory lap. No sooner had the potentates sheathed their dancing swords and waved goodbye to their guest than oil prices started to move up again, to new highs.

This week Mr. Cheney has been visiting the moderate New Middle East, including Riyadh although he will not do the 'omrah pilgrimage to Hijazz- he'll stick to Najd, where they have no oil but get all the money from it, where they have no holy shrines but oversee them. Oil prices have moved decisively over $ 100 per barrel since he started his trip. By the time Cheney leaves, prices will remain fairly within their recent historically high range: somewhere between $95 and $111. It is enough to make both the Prez and the Veep eager for Januray 21st, when they can ride into the sunset, deep into Speechland in Petroland.

Am I seeing things (that are not there)? Should I try a regression analysis to establish significant causality before making such observations?

Maybe both leaders would have been better off visiting Caracas and Tehran: maybe then oil prices would not have risen as much.

Bush, Iran and Nukes:
"Iran has declared they want a nuclear weapon to destroy people."
George W. Bush: Radio Farda Mach 19, 2008

I would like to see a copy of that Iranian declaration Mr. Bush refers to.
So would Mr. Cheney in preparation for his next Fox News interview.
So would White House spokesperson Dana Perrino before meeting the sharks in the press room.
So would representatives of all permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.
It is possible, nay very likely, that Iran is aiming at a nuclear weapon- but would they be foolish enough to declare it in this fashion?

Fortunately for the president, the ruling mullahs are not litigious, or maybe they are not into lawsuits just right now. Or maybe some of them are already perusing legalzoom. Or maybe they are already calling to retain Alan Dershowitz.
Or maybe the Iranian regime worries that litigation will lead to more intrusive inspections of their nuclear program.

Or maybe Mr. Bush has looked into Ahmadinejad's eyes, on HD television of course, and seen through into his fellow fundamentalist soul (Shi'a fundamentalist not Bible Belt Sunni fundamentalist) , a la Putin and all the neo-democrats of the moderate New Middle East.

Church and Mosque Controversy:
A Vatican representative had mischievously noted that perhaps churches will be allowed sometime soon in Saudi Arabia. That was in the context of opening the first Church in Qatar recently. He had noted that there are some 4-5 millions Christians in Saudi Arabia. That is true, a big percentage of the millions of foreign labor are Christians from Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas. That is a fact that tends to be ignored, conveniently, by Saudi officials and their surrogates.

The reaction was swift. Most Saudi shaikhs and others of influence categorically reject the idea of churches in their country. ( How about Christmas trees? At least give amnesty to Rudolph, legalize him). Someone mentioned that perhaps that can b tied to a Vatican recognition of the Prophet Mohammed (presumably as a messenger of God). But that would automatically mean conversion to Islam, even if they do not fast or pray. (Jews who two millennia ago accepted Christ ended up being called 'Christians', they are Jews no more, n'est-ce pas?).

Still, this is an intriguing debate that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. Clearly there is some positive change in the Arabian air: merely talking the talk makes it so much easier later on to walk the walk. Is this a hallmark of the moderate New Middle East? Is the debate part of its famous birth pangs? Probably not: radical Old Middle East countries, ogres like Iran and Syria have always allowed churches, and some synagogues, they still do. Oh no, did I just say synagogues and Riyadh in the same paragraph?

The National Security Candidate:
Finally, did McCain really mix up a Jewish holiday with Halloween?
Wasn't it bad enough mixing al-Qaeda with al-Sadr?
Or mixing Shi'as with Sunnis?

Cheers
Mohammed

Saudi blogger Fouad al-Farhan has been detaiend without charges for about 90 days.
Republicans and McCain using the tragedy of Iraq as campaign poster.
Are Shi'as, Sunnis, and Kurds Frenching in Baghdad now?
What are these rumors and stories about little Hizbullahs in the Gulf?
Should Florida be allowed to vote, ever?

Five Years, So Many Billions, So Many Lives Later:
Especially so many lives, and many more limbs later, how do we see Iraq?
What we saw the past three days was a war torn country being used as a campaign poster.
Iraq, and the American soldiers put in harm's way, and the Iraqis who are in shock (maybe awed as well) were all being used as a pawn in a show that will continue until early November. Of course it could last through next December if Florida, true to form, manages to mess up its voting again (it is already well on its way with the primary mess).

What Iraqis saw was a pleasant-looking older man seeking to be leader of his own country, a man who has noted that he will remain in their country for 100 years if needed- without consulting them. Which means that they saw a war without end, of necessity spilling over across borders, across old battlefields.

The nice-looking old man was clearly focused on his election campaign: he went to Israel, but refused to see the Palestinian President Abbas. Not worth it: not many voters in Dearborn. Besides, Michigan always goes Democratic.

Fox News interviewed GOP's Ed Gillespie from the White House this afternoon. He said, among other things, that Shi'as, Sunnis and Kurds in Iraq were in love again. Yep, you would think that the laws against Frenching have been repealed in Iraq just so that Shi'as, Sunnis, and Kurds can....french each other with impunity. All in the spirit of brotherhood, sisterhood, and cross-gender-hood. Film at 11- but make sure your kids are safely in bed, with the "red relephone" to the White House, the one that might ring at 3 AM, handy nearby.
(BTW: there are anti-frenching laws in all Arab and Islamic countries, although the word itself is never specifically mentioned.)

What Hizbullah?:
A new term has been circulating in the Arab media these past few weeks. It is a term unheard before, at least unheard by me: mini Hizbullahs. Mention has been made of Hizbullah in Kuwait, Hizbullah in Bahrain, and Hizbullah in Saudi Arabia. Soon there might be one in Lebanon.

In Kuwait the authorities have accused some political and religious activists of belonging to a local party called "Kuwaiti Hizbullah". Somehow it doesn't ring right. In Saudi Arabia, eight Bahraini youths who claimed to have strayed into forbidden territory have been held for weeks without charge. Some Saudi media claim that they might be "charged" with belonging to Bahraini Hizbullah. It is not clear, in that case, on what grounds can Saudi Arabia prosecute foreign nationals for being members of a party in their own country- whether that party is legal or not. Unless the eight were intent on, or were involved in some "actiivities" inside the kingdom. Who knows.

Anyway, suddenly many little Hizbullahs are sprouting all over the (Persian) Gulf. Are there such mini-Hizbullahs? Are the authorities making them up, or merely inflating this for political purposes? Are the extreme rightwing media in one or two Gulf countries exploiting this to saw fear and instability? Is it all of the above? I need a scantron sheet to answer.

Some newspapers in the Gulf, especially two newspapers in Kuwait, have in fact been using this (almost?) mythical party to stir up political and sectarian divisions, scare people, and perhaps have them look to 'big brother' for safety. These pendejos with looted public funds may have succeeded.
Gulf Shi'as tend to deny the existence of such local parties. The Bahraini Minister of State for Foerign Affairs has also publicly denied the existence of such a party in his country.

This may just be the latest fashion. A decade or two ago, the spectre of Zionism was used all across the Arab world, and all were on the lookout for Zionist agents bent on mischief. Maybe they were bent on stealing our advanced technology? That has been debunked, so now we have a convenient "enemy" from within.
Cheers
Mohammed

Saudi blogger Fouad has been in detention without charges for 90 days. He was expressing his views in this moderate New Middle East.

McCain, Kings, and Arab Dwarves:
Senator McCain has moved on from the safe streets of Baghdad to the mean streets of Jordan, where he met in Amman with little King Abdul de Jourdanie, the US Senate's most favorite monarch that is not a butterfly. Actually I shouldn't call him 'little king', that is a belittling term Nasser's Egyptian radio used to describe his father the late King Hussein. Of course Anwar Sadat outdid even Nasser: at one point he called all Arab leaders "a'qzam", dwarves. Maybe he was unto something.

Most Arab media saw the McCain visit for what it was: promoting his presidential campaign, in the US not in Iraq.

VP Dick Cheney is also in the Middle East, creating more traffic jams in Baghdad. But he had some good advice to give this time. He urged the Arab states to start opening embassies in Baghdad, a bit of wise advice which they may not be wise enough to heed anytime soon. It would be a good start, a must if they ever want to contain the Iranian influence they have been whining about. A clear cut case of put up or shut up..

Kirkuk Simmering:
Elaph quotes a Turkman politician from Kirkuk claiming that the main Kurdish parties have resettled about half a million Kurds in Kirkuk in preparation for a referendum on the city's future. The report also claims that US forces have armed 10,000 Sunni Arabs in the Kirkuk area, as part of the Awakening Councils. This last move, if true, does not seem like a smart thing to do. The politician claims that the apparent goal was to resist al-Qaeda, but the real goal may be to confront the Kurds in the future. Very likely they alo have their eyes on participation in any future sectarian civil war.

The referendum was postponed last year and is slated to be held before summer of this year. Sooner or later things will come to a boil in Kirkuk, with Arabs and Turks opposing returning the city to Kurdish control.

Vacancy at the Summit:
Looks like the next Arab Summit will be held in Syria as scheduled, The Syrians have invited everybody except the Clinton's kitchen sink, including Lebanon's part-time rump Prime Minister Fouad Saniora and apparently even Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The last one is odd, a first for Arab summits, since Iran is not a member of the Arab League- it is not even an Arab country. Maybe host Bashar Assad worries that leaders and potentates of the Moderate New Middle East will gang up on him, and feels that he needs a friend? (Apparently he's never listened to James Taylor).

If they are now inviting to Arab summits all foreign leaders who have strong influence in the Arab world, why only Iran? Why leave out the others, the most important two? Why not complete the trifecta of powers moving the New Moderate Arab World by inviting Mr. Bush and Mr. Olmert?

Better yet, why not Dick Cheney and Tzipi Livni? She is better looking than Olmert (certainly better looking than Cheney). Besides, she is a powerful woman in her own right even outside the bedroom and therefore capable of making Arab potentates squirm, as powerful women outside the bedroom are wont to do.

And the Arab potentates won't even have to shake her hand or kiss her, just as they didn't do earlier at Annapolis. They do, however, have to announce their honorable intentions not to kiss or shake hands with her beforehand, just like they did before Annapolis. That would be the least gentlemanly thing to do under the circumstances- unless they want to be real gentlemany and kiss her anyway.
Cheers
Mohammed

Ah, ba ba ba ba Barbara Ann
ba ba ba ba Barbara Ann
Oh Barbara Ann, take my hand
ba ba ba ba let's bomb Iran
Senator McCain, aka Beach Boy

McCain, Obama, Iraq, and the Bomb:
A congressman from Iowa named King has told a radio program that if Barack Obama is elected, terrorists and extermists will dance in the streets of the Middle East more than they did on 9/11. This will be a main GOP slogan in the coming months- it may be their major one, after tax cuts of course.

He was wrong, of course. The Jihadists and Islamic extremists were handed their best present by the neoconservatives, when the Bush administration decided to linger in Iraq for years.

It has been a gift that keeps on giving: it has lowered the status of the United States to unprecedented levels in both Europe and the Middle East, and it has encouraged many young men from the 'moderate' allied countries of the New Middle East to join various Sunni Jihadist groups, especially al-Qaeda.

Actually nothing will please the Jihadists more than to have the same gift keep on giving: having US combat troops remain indefinitely in Iraq, providing a rallying cry for Islamic extremists, as well as tempting targets. That means that a McCain victory will keep the Jihadist cause alive: it most likely will please extremists in the Middle East. So much for the Sunni extremists.

As for the Shi'a extremists, they have not had much of a direct conflict with the United States since the 1980s in Lebanon. They will likely join the fray once Mr McCain establishes what is seen as permanent bases. Once he does a "James Polk", starts his march across the rugged Persian Plateau, as he has threatened. He will be following in the footsteps of the unfortunate Marcus Crassus and his legions, on his way to a political Carrhae for his party, doing his macabre rendition of the Beach Boys' Barbara Ann. (FYI: he won't do it, he is too smart, but they think he will-they being both the Islamic Jihadists and the Neocon Jihadists).
But I'm moving too fast: people are not looking forward to a third Bush term, are they?

Jihadist ET, Call Home:
The Pentagon is considering providing telephone services and allowing some Guantanamo detaines to call home. It is not clear if they will be allowed to call their 'extended' families, in Pakistan and the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan.
Next step: will some students in Qandahar or Riyadh start a "cell phones for detained Salafis" program?

Speaking of phones: reports say that CENTCOM'S Admiral Fallon resigned by phone- a phone also provided by the DOD. So the plan is to have the Salafis phone in their resignations from the cause, and its other-worldly pleasures, from Gitmo- then head for the beach, the rum, and las chicas.
Cheers
Mohammed

Iraq- Muqtada al-Sadr is Going Religious, or is it Political?
Muqtada al-Sadr has gone back to college, to Grad School, or its equivalent in Shi'a theology. Arab media quote Muqtada that his father had advised him early on to finish his studies. His father and two brothers were assassinated by Ba'ath regime agents in 1999. An uncle and aunt were tortured and murdered by Ba'ath security in Baghdad in 1980. (It is possible that some of these very same guys are being rehired in the New Iraq Security Forces even as I rant, Of course they would be older, with more extended bellies).

Al-Sadr leads a political faction with thirty members in Iraq's parliament. He has twice declared an effective ceasefire with US forces, freezing all activities by his Mahdi militias, although US commanders still target what they call 'renegade factions' of the Sadrist movement. The freeze has coincided with the US surge. Muqtada himself has periodically railed against 'renegade' elements.
Lately the Sadrists had threatened to lead prtests if the new law on provincial (regional) councils is hindered. The law has not been ratified by the Presidential Council.

Al-Qaeda Rampant?
Arab media report that a wanted al-Qaeda man, has again appeared at a Yemeni court last week and then allowed to walk out free. His name is Jaber al-Banna and is on the Most Wanted list in the United States and has a $ 5 million reward for his arrest.
Reports say that he has posted bail to be able to go free, but it is not known if the bail posted exceeds ten US dollars.

Future Soccer Moms and the Mufti:
Alarabiya reports that the Mufti General of Saudi Arabia has intervened in a university to stop a race (running as in a track meet or cross country) among female students. Earlier a soccer (Football) game between female students of two Saudi colleges had created a controversy in the conservative quasi-fundamentalist kingdom. The soccer game was held in a closed stadium where only females were allowed entry- perhaps the boys were outside imagining things?

The Mufti Abdulaziz Aal al-Shaikh is a direct descendant of Mohammed bin Abdul-Wahab, an early political ally of the al-Saud dynasty whose name is given to the Wahhabi sect.
There is another Mohammed Abdelwahab, who is even more famous across the Arab world, and for good reason: the late great Egyptian composer and singer with that same name. But he was not much into fatwas.

Is It the Jordan River Water?
A Jordanian man has stabbed his brother to death after finding out that the brother has been violating their sister. The crime was discovered by the girl's husband on their wedding night when it turned out she was not a virgin. She confessed that the brother was the guilty party. The killer was sentenced to one year in prison. Interesting.

Another Jordanian man has killed his sister and a Syrian shepherd, claiming he had caught them in a compromising position. He fired six bullets into his sister and four bullets into the Syrian shepherd (that is nepotism) after he caught them 'together' early morning. A medical exam confirmed that the girl was still a virgin when she was shot.
It turns out the man was helped by two cousins who did not believe in mixed dating (mixed presumably being men-women and Jordanian-Syrian dating, apparently no Jordanian sheep were involved).
No word about the take of the sheep on all this- normally sheep are not allowed to testify in Jordanian courts.

In Jordan, the law limits sentences for "honor" killings to a range of between three months and one year. A kiss can be very costly in Jordan, but in Jordan life can be almost as cheap as it was in Afghanistan under the Taliban.

Enough about life and death in the moderate New Middle East- I won't mention the famous birth pangs this time.

Arabian Frustration:
Alarabiya reports that police in the town of al-Khubar in eastern Saudi Arabia have intervened to stop a marriage, on the wedding night. Apparently some of the bride's brothers were disgruntled, and had sued against the marriage on the ground that the two are not campatibe in terms of clans, i.e not tribally compatible.

Arab Parliament Redux (Again):
Arabs can rejoice: the Provisional Arab Parliament has formed a committe to study and propose solutions for all inter-Arab problems. From now on all Arab problems and crises will be resolved forthwith. Rejoice my people.
(Actually it may not be a bad idea, it may turn out to be more effective then the Summits or the Arab League). Still, I would recommend that they move it to Strasbourg.
Cheers
Mohammed

Are Iraq's neighbors softening?
Arab potentates may now be regretting having neglected Iraq for the past five years. The neglect was partly an ill-conceived way for the potentates to punish the new political order in Iraq. They may have thought that diplomatic relations are a sort of reward. In that they seemed to be aping the Bush administration that considers meeting others and establishing a diplomatic dialog as some form of reward- it is not now, maybe in the next administration.

All they did by staying away was to allow Iran a freer hand in Iraq. Today Iran is Iraq’s biggest trading partner, and Iranian investments are pouring into the country, especially in the southern provinces.

There was anger among some Arab leaders, expressed in the Saudi and pro-Saudi Gulf media, at the visit of Ahmadinejad to Iraq last week. Some commentators in the Saudi-owned press called it an insult to Arabs- not sure how a head of state visiting another is an insult to anyone.
Some got misty-eyed and said it was an insult to all the Iraqis who died fighting Iran during the 1980s war and those who have died since the invasion. There was no mention of the fact that Arab regimes funded that long war and facilitated the invasion of 2003 and the initial war that has been raging since. There was also no mention of the Arab nationalities of the Salafi terrorists who for almost five years have targeted Iraqi civilians, thus weakening the unity of the country's social fabric, nor is there any mention of their sources of financing.

The anger is understandable, but it should be directed inward, toward those same regimes: they helped create the diplomatic vacuum that Iran has taken advantage of.

Now it looks like they may be having second thoughts- and about time. There has been renewed talk of opening embassies: there has been such talk for several years. When it comes to Iraq, as with other regional issues, the Arab regimes seem paralysed, incapable of acting, waiting for someone else to point the way. That someone else is usually non-Arab.

Speaking of trouble spots and fences:
It seems that walls and fences are the vogue in the Arab world as well these days. Just as they are among some U.S politicians during election years, as well as in North Korea.

Arab media report that Egypt has already started building a fence along its entire border with Gaza. The wall is supposed to be 3 meters (well over 10 feet) high. If this is true, it is the fastest the Egyptian bureaucracy has ever worked on starting anything. That is why I am doubtful.
Israel has had a partial fence built around the Palestinian West Bank for some time.

Then there is the Mother of All fences: the long fence project separating Saudi Arabia from Iraq that will eventually cost many billions of dollars- it is a Saudi fence, of course, not an Iraqi one. And there is a proposed fence between Kuwait and Iraq which is being talked about, as well as the various little fences separating Iraqi communities themselves. The way things are going now, it is possible that eventually the only countries that will not wish to build fences along Iraq's borders will be her non-Arab neighbors, Turkey and Iran.

Congressman Tom Tancredo, a noted lover of border fences, may be gone from the limelight, thank God, but his ghost has reached the Middle East and hovers over all Arab borders these days.

Luckily, once the November elections are over (in America, not in Arabia- they are never over in Arabia), the issue of a fence will be DOA in the United States, not to be revived for another four years. I can imagine Glenn Beck and Lou Dobbs forming a new CNN Border Patrol Party to challenge the major parties that have sold out border security for the price of dubious and inequitable free trade.

Dobbs worries mostly about trade and jobs, which are reasonable worries- just look at the economies around some regions of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. His beef with illegal immigrants and NAFTA has mainly to do with loss of American jobs, not necessarily with a fear of having to file his tax returns in Spanish.

Beck, on the other hand, apparently couldn't tell Karl Marx from Milton Friedman- hint: one was quite hairy, while the other was as smooth as an eraser as well as being a perfect egghead. Both were extremists in their own zone of the economic electromagnetic spectrum, and both had the same roots.

Beck keeps losing sleep over terrorists, usually hailing from the moderate New Middle East, sweeping across the Mexican border and doing harm to Lake Mead or Sea World. And in the process further confusing Mr. Beck as to who is the enemy, and who is not, over there.
Of course they have to get into Mexico first and then across it, not an easy task for many, especially a Salafi Jihadist who would never touch a carne asada that is not kosher.
I believe that Beck is also terrified of someday having to file his tax returns in Spanish- pobrecito.

Ken Starr Redux?
Senator Clinton’s campaign has tried to revive the ghosts of the 1990s, again. The latest was accusing the Obama campaign today of using 'Ken Starr tactics'. It was a call to arms to the Democratic faithful, most of whom have not been faithful to Clinton. The call seems odd, quite surreal now that such bogeymen as Gingrich and DeLay are not around. It is like watching another president set a new goal of landing another man on the moon by, say, 2016.
What next: the famous black beret?
Cheers
Mohammed

The USS Cole, along with other ships of the Sixth Fleet, has been moved close to the Lebanese shores. The Cole has a sad history behind it, as most people know, or should know. It was attacked in the fall of 2000, by citizens of allied soon-to-be New Middle East countries, in a seaport of another New Middle East moderate ally. Nineteen people died in that suicide attack, most of them American victims.

The emergence of the Cole, target of al-Qaeda at the port of Aden, off the Lebanese shores has raised speculation. Fouad Saniora, PM of the rump cabinet in part of Beirut, was quick to deny that he had requested its presence. He said that US officials had not informed him of the deployment of the Cole, then added that "it will remain outside Lebanese waters", without explaining how he knew that it will. Other members of the Saniora coalition hinted at things to come, perhaps hopefully.

The Shi'as and their Christian Maronite allies are predictably pissed. Hizbullah said that it was part of an American campaign of threats and intimidation, and that it will not work. Perhaps: warships are not normally sent anywhere unless the purpose is to use them or to threaten their use. Hizbullah TV was quick to say that this move showed who were the real leaders of the pro-government forces.

Some media sources reported that the Cole is there because of worries about Syria. But Syria seems boxed in now, mostly laying low, so it is not likely to attack, say, Israel, or the realm of King Abdul in Jordan. And it does not send supplies and men to Hizbullah by sea. as a clever Arab analyst noted. Hassan Nassrallah does not seem to be getting ready to escape Lebanon through the Mediterranean. And I doubt that the rump cabinet is about to seek political asylum en masse in Dearborn anytime soon.
Some say that it is a show of force designed to stiffen the backbon of the Hariri-Saniora alliance- the next best thing to putting ground troops in harm's way. This is a mystery.

Ali al-Kemawi, R.I.P:
The Iraqi Presidential Council has approved the death sentence of "Chemical" Ali Hassan al-Majeed, mass murderer of Kurds and others, once Governor of occupied Kuwait and Ba'ath regime big man. Like some other Iraqi Ba'athist butchers, he was also once looked up to in some limited Arab circles, especially in some Gulf states, as an Arab folk hero because he tended to butcher mostly the "right kind' of people- just like his wilier and more famous cousin.
He is to be executed within a month.

He served a tribal and largely sectarian regime with a modern veneer that often deceived willing Westerners. It used as its front a party that was originally modeled after the National Socialists of a Germany gone berserk about a perverted Austrian former corporal in the Kaiser's army.

Later, the "Party" sensed the changing winds and adopted some of the ideologies of the socialist co-victors of the European war. The party was never popular in Iraq before 1968, when it took over through a military coup and started a bloody reign of terror that spared no group, sect or party in Iraq. Kurds were bombed, gassed, and uprooted- Shi'as were tortured, stripped of their citizenship and deported- Jews were hung in public squares to die slowly of asphyxiation not of broken necks- Sunnis were tortured, executed and exiled. It was a party of Equal Opportunity Persecution for those who did not toe the line or were suspect.
In the end very few Arab people, mostly among those who never had to live under its rule, were saddened by the demise of the party.
May that nightmare never ever revisit any nation.
Cheers, most likely
Mohammed