This is one of those periods when the freer Arab press gets into a mood of deep depression. Clearly the underlying factors for pessimism are permanent in the Arab world, for they represent a valid undercurrent and a constant theme. After all, not much has changed over the past generation, in most cases the same rulers and potentates hold sway. But occasionally it takes certain regional developments to push these emotions into breaking out into the open in a more vociferous form.
Reactions of the Arab media to recent regional events like Iran’s nuclear program and the terrorist campaign in Iraq have been mixed, as expected. Generally, the major Arab media that are based in Europe, especially London, not being restricted by official censorship, have tended to express more freely the dominant Arab opinion (Al-Hayat and al-Quds al-Arabi). Recently, many of their columnists have tended to mock Arab leaders and belittle them in comparison to the Iranian President, AhmadiNejad. One columnist (al-Quds al-Arabi, 4/19/06) was quite graphic “I wish and hope that we could have an Arab leader who is as cheerful, as firm, as serious, as mocking, as modest, and as defiant as AhmadiNejad. I wish that one of our leaders, one of those who swagger around with their fat bodies, one of those fat ones whose arms are thicker than AhmadiNejad’s whole body, whose bank account is fatter……etc.” You get the gist of it- it is dripping with contempt for Arab leaders and admiration for AhmadiNejad.
Lately there have been a lot of these. Well, perhaps I need to take another look at the amiable little guy.
A columnist in al-Hayat (4/19/06) even lamented that the fate of the Arab region is being determined by two “Great Powers: the United States and Iran". It went on to say that “many Arabs are unhappy about Iran’s role in Iraq, but many Arab citizens do not look at Iran in the same way as their rulers.” It went on to complain that “the Arab regimes look like subservient satellites of the USA and therefore of Israel, and they cannot control their own destinies.”
Most newspapers that are based in the Arab world have been quietly critical of Iran’s ambitions, while their columnists have almost universally wished that it had been an Arab country rather than Iran on the verge of a nuclear break-through.
The Jordanian press in general seems to stick closely to the official government line on this and other issues, even more so than some government-controlled Egyptian newspapers which tend to be still more interesting because they express more diverse opinion. Al-Rai and al-Dustour, the main daily papers in Jordan, read almost like an official government mouthpiece. Or perhaps it is the stunning contrast between the famous Egyptian sense of humor and clever way with words and the absence of the same sense in Jordan and many other Arab states.
Gulf newspapers have expressed varied points of view. While the official editorials have been guarded, many have published columnists of different opinions on the issue. In Kuwait, the relatively liberal al-Qabas and the conservative al-Watan (owned by a member of the ruling family) have both weighed in freely about the issue. They, and UAE papers, certainly have been much more vibrant and diverse than the more timid Jordanian or Saudi press which tend to echo the official line on contentious foreign affairs.
In Kuwait, the weekly al-Tale'a (Left/Liberal) reported that al-Shall, a local consulting and research firm, urged the government to investigate reports that figures for that country’s proven oil reserves may have been deliberately falsified and inflated. The report said that there were claims (originally published three months ago in The Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, a trade publication) that the country’s actual reserves are only 50 billion barrels of crude rather than the previously claimed 100 billion. It questions discrepancies in the old 1983 reserve figures, the levels of production during the past 23 years, and the claimed level of current reserves. The report goes on to say that either the officials consider the figure a state secret or, it hints, perhaps they do now know the actual figure. One thing is certain: you won’t find this kind of open discussion of a discrepancy in oil reserves in the press of any other Arab country. In some countries, the writer of such a report could end up in the local equivalent of Abu Ghreib (the Saddam-era Abu Ghreib, the really, really, really bad one- not the more recent, simply bad, one).
Most Arab markets started the week weak - sorry, I could not avoid that one. There have been demands, especially in the oil states, for more direct government intervention, and demands for the punishment of market officials- the usual proverbial kabsh fidaa syndrome, that is scapegoat to most of you. It will be hard to reform the markets and prevent similar financial crises in the future as long as high oil prices allow governments to intervene and subsidise market losses. So, economic and political reforms might be shelved again, until (if and when) oil prices decline.
High oil prices keep these societies and their govermnments hooked on the same bad old economic and financial policies, just as low oil prices keep Americans hooked on the same bad old consumption patterns. It looks like what is good in the long run for one side, is also harmful in the long run for the other.
Cheers
Mohammed
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