The Iranian Nuclear Challenge, the Shame of Darfur, Mossad on the Persian Gulf

Middle East News Analysis

A column in the London-based al-Hayat (4/28/06) by Raghida Dirgham talks about Arab options in the face of the “Iranian Challenge”. The article warns of a possible Iranian-Israeli nuclear axis in the future, which is clearly a far-fetched alliance at this time. It warns of- I am using my own words here interpreting her stated concerns- “a tri-polar power structure in the Middle East, a triangle of regional superpowers with its vertices being Iran, Israel, and Turkey”.
That is also a needless worry, for Turkey is covered by the nuclear umbrella of Nato and does not need a costly nuclear program (but then again, nor does Iran). Besides, Turkey is now firmly facing west, for the time being, obsessed with the idea of joining the European Union, although that idea is opposed by some ‘Old Europe’ powers whose nightmares, it seems, include hjiab-clad Moslem women at Brussels and Strasbourg.
It notes the warm Iranian reception for the leader of Sudan, even while the country is involved in genocide in Darfur. It also notes that the Arab leaders held their last summit in Sudan, hence blessing the Sudanese stand in Darfur. The column suggests that perhaps there is a sinister and ‘disgusting’ racist reason behind the Arabs’ silent and tacit approval of the genocide- that the Arabs have been at best silent about the mass genocide in Darfur (near 500,000 killed so far, which might reach a million soon) because the victims are “African” blacks. She probably has a good point there: after all, if one hundred thousand were killed in Cairo or Damascus, the Arab reaction would have been quite different (notice all the hand-wringing over the violence in Iraq?).

The Arab Media opinion seems scattered over this Iranian issue. Those in the Persian Gulf region are strongly opposed to it, partly out of legitimate concern over the dangers of proliferation and the potential for a regional Chernobyl, which is my own point of view as well. But there is also another reason and it is based on the normal sense of historic rivalry between two neighboring cultures and peoples. For example, it is not likely that many in the Gulf would worry as much about an Egyptian nuclear program. Those in Arab countries farther away from the Gulf seem to divide into two camps: one grudgingly accepts the Iranian program, even admires it, while another camp thinks it is almost a fait accompli that nobody can stop in the current international environment. That last one is, unfortunately, my own point of view as well and I sense that it is the prevalent in the Middle East. Warnings of dire international consequences are sounding more hollow with each passing day, but, then again, the past three years have been a period of surprises.

Where most Arab commentators go wrong is that they look at the Iranian program as a challenge to the Arab World. It is, but not a direct one: an Arab challenge is not visible within the radar sight of Iranian strategists and policy makers. The Iran-Iraq War was the last challenge the Arab world posed to Iran, and at that time the result of that war looked like a short-term stalemate, but now we know that it was in fact a resounding long-term Iranian strategic victory. Just look at the regional balance of power since the end of that war.
The Iranians seem to have discounted the possibility of an Arab military challenge for the foreseeable future and set their sights (within the region) on the United States and Israel. They do not seem to consider the whole vast Arab World as a worthy or equal challenger. Unfortunately this is a logical position for them to take, for the Arab World seems to be listless and fragmented, and most of it poses no serious military threat to anyone except their own peoples. Still, the Iranians will be careful: they know that the richest chunk of the Arab World, from the Gulf to the Nile is firmly under the American umbrella now. They know that in spite of, or perhaps because of, all the violent campaigns of various militant and terrorist Arab organizations, including al-Qaeda, Hizbullah, al-Jihad, etc, the Americans are more firmly entrenched in the region than ever.

Asharq Alawsat, also from London, talks about the politics of Iraq (notice how the most interesting Arab media are based outside the Arab World, perhaps with the exception of Iraq). The paper claims that the Kurds are insisting on holding onto the Foreign Ministry post, while the Shi’as are reluctant to give up the Defense Ministry to a Sunni. Of course all this could be part of the posturing and bargaining.
Iraq’s National Security Adviser Mawffaq al-Rubaie said that Iraq has a plan for US troops to start to pulling out this year, and that the process will take two years.

The UAE has severely restricted issuing new company licenses, with an eye to the ‘negative effects on the liquidity of the stock market’, according to the Minister of the Economy.

This has been a week of some weird news from the Gulf (Persian Gulf, not the Gulf of Mexico). A most unusual new item spread in the Arab press over the past two days: a report in the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronot copied all over the Middle East now that establishing Kuwait Airways in 1954 was part of a plan by Israel so that some pilots who were Jewish spies could fly easily to Cairo. According to a former Israeli minister who was in charge of espionage, two Israeli spies who were also US citizens approached the rulers of Kuwait with the idea of establishing an airline. The two were pilots, both veterans of the first Arab-Israeli war (what we call The Palestine War), were then able to fly freely to Cairo three times a week right under the nose of Nasser’s government. The Israeli newspaper claimed that once it was time to end the operation, the two agents, who also had shares in the company, sold their share in the airline to Kuwait. The airline’s spokesman has categorically denied the report, claiming that Kuwait Airways did not have American pilots, that all its pilots at the time were British (on loan from the old BOAC, which is now called BA). O.K they were British, but were they veterans of the first Palestine War?

On a lighter note, perhaps, another unusual news item, also involving Kuwait: reports in the Arab media have talked of the theft of 450,000 dollars from the hotel room of Palestinian Foreign Minister Mahmoud Zahar during his recent visit to Kuwait. Sounds like a lot of cash, and I thought that Hamas would start cleaning house and end the corruption. And was the money coming into Kuwait or going out of it? The answer depends on the level of your IQ. But then again, the report could be a hoax.


Cheers
Mohammed