Middle East Analysis
Finally a good alternative plan for Iraq has come out of Washington, a plan that is sensible and is the most viable. The Biden-Gelb plan (New York Times: May 1, 2006) is a clear departure from Sen. Joseph Biden’s past insistence that reasonable concessions to the Sunni Arabs can bring about success for a strong centralized government. Reasonable concessions have brought neither a more imminent peace nor acceptance of the inevitable inescapable fact: that the new Iraq does not have much to do with the old one that the British patched together by a combination of force and diplomacy and the Sunni elites held together by force and terror. Those reasonable concessions were unreasonable in that they kept feeding the false hope to some that the terrorism/insurgency would eventually bear fruit and return that country to its pre-2003 course, thus validating and continuimg the minority Sunni sense of entitlement to rule. Nor is Mr. Allawi, good and non-sectarian as he is, the solution- the terror campaign gathered steam and grew even while he was the Interim Prime Minister. Those who vilified Mr. Allawi at that time inside Iraq, in the Arab World, and even within the Democratic Party cannot now be serious about his chances.
Sectarian and ethnic emotions in Iraq, suppressed for the decades since the anti-British Great Revolt (1920-1921) that was led by the Shi’a Hawza from Najaf, are as charged now as they were then, and as they were (and still are) in Bosnia.
In a situation like Iraq, or for that matter like Sudan, when temporary ethnic peace could be bought only with the price of domination of one group of the others, then it is time for at least a semi-breakup. This proposal will not lead to an American style federalism, with mobility and opportunity increasingly for everyone. It will be something much less pleasant, with perhaps intrusive regional border security (it will be nothing as pleasant as the California agricultural inspectors at the state lines). It will be a new shock, and a much-needed one, to a stagnant regional Arab system that only understands centralized power and the damage it can inflict and the oppression it can impose. But it is clear now that the alternative is a continuation of a Sunni and Salafi terror and insurgency campaign financed with unlimited resources from the gushing oil fields outside the country, and soldiered by both Sunni Iraqis and imported terrorists from other Arab countries. And the increasing tendency of others toward retaliation. And continuing Iraqi and American casualties.
The financial resources available for such an insurgency are unlimited from across Iraq’s borders, and oil prices don’t look like they will be going back to the $30/barrel any time soon. Continuing to pretend that Iraq is one single centralized country is like a replay of the old Stalin-era films that showed Uzbeks, Latvians, Turkmen, Azerbaijanis, and Armenians all singing and dancing joyously under the benevolent centralized rule of Joseph Stalin.
World powers, perhaps even an emboldened UN, could join the United States in guaranteeing the integrity of the regions and of the federal borders.
The Biden and Gelb plan is already coming under some attack in the blogs, and in some Arab media. There are some are screams of “Biden wants to dismember Iraq". But this time, I believe the Senator may be unto something.
Cheers
Mohammed
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