Siege of Jordan, Persian Gulf Markets, Egypt’s Gamal Comes to Washington

Middle East Analysis

Interesting things are happening in Jordan. Apparently Jordan’s government is embarked on a media blitz these days, with accusations of plots flying around. The suspects are the usual ones: Hamas, Syria, Iran. Some witty Arab Internet comments now expect that Venezuela, Cuba and North Korea might be added to the list of Jordanian suspects soon.
Now the Speaker of Jordan’s parliament Mr. al-Majali, he is also a former head of Jordanian Security Services, has accused the Iranian regime of aiming to destabilize Jordan. He said that Iran is a threat to Jordan. Most Arab Internet comments seem to say that if Iran is a threat to some countries, it probably has larger fish to fry than Jordan. Some see the Jordanian stance as part of a concerted Western effort against the Iranian regime.

It is possible that Jordan is legitimately worried about some sort of encirclement by proxy by the Iranian theocrats- with Iran-friendly Iraq, Iran-friendly Syria, and now an Iran-friendly Palestinian government all around it. Things look that way although it is hardly aimed directly at Jordan, which has no significant strategic importance.

Speaking of the Speaker, Jordanian security services have been notorious in the past because of rumors that they were exporting mercenary interrogators under the guise of ‘security trainers’ to some of the smaller Persian Gulf states in the 1980s and 1990s. Apparently it is hard in a small tribal society to ask a native interrogator to interrogate his neighbor severely. It is easier for inquisitors imported from outside to engage in certain activities in a small society- things like pulling out fingernails or inserting electrodes in extremely sensitive parts of the body. It is not clear now if Jordanian security experts are still being engaged to perform these interesting activities in the Gulf.

In Bahrain, the main political groupings are grumbling about the honesty and transparency of delayed municipal and legislative elections. The complaints are mainly about not setting firm dates for the promised elections and suspicions about proposed electronic voting, presumably because the government can manipulate the results, whenever these elections are held. Half of the Bahrain legislature is non-elected but appointed by the King.

Gulf stock markets seem to be moving within a narrow range. Some traders are happy that the serious slide has apparently stopped for now. Officials certainly have done their best to talk up shares prices, with promises of new plans that would implicitly shore up demand. In some cases, the UAE, restrictions were imposed on establishing new public share-holding companies.
In Qatar, the cabinet amended existing laws to allow listed companies to buy back their shares. The Qatari market has lost about 44% of market capitalization since peaking earlier this year. Investor comments were skeptic whether many companies will actually buy back their own shares. Company profits in the Gulf have suffered noticeably during the first quarter of the year as well, because a large number of listed companies are either in the financial sector or depend on investment (non-operational) income for part of their earnings.

In Iraq, one of the country’s Vice Presidents, the Sunni Arab one, extolled the virtues of ‘legitimate’ resistance against the US forces and against the government of which he is a part. His statement was an excruciating example of the old Ba’athist and pan-Arabist double speak of the past decades. He did, however, exclude al-Qaida in Iraq from his blessings. It would be interesting to see how the new government can trust this man and others like him with its security plans and its strategy for combating terrorism. The good new is, the presidency in Iraq does not make policies or implement them.

The Jerusalem Post reports that the Israeli government decided, in accordance to defense establishment recommendations, to allow the transfer of weapons and ammunition from Israel to supporters of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. The paper said this transfer was limited, and came out of concern for Abbas' life and position at the head of the PA, security officials said. Interesting that the Arab media did not report this.
Sources in the Likud were quick to condemn the decision. This was the first time that Israel took an active role in the clashes between Hamas members and Palestinian security forces started a week ago.

Palestinian President Abbas said he will call a national referendum on a future Palestinian state if no agreement is reached with Hamas within 10 days.
Abbas said he would call a referendum on a proposal to accept Palestinian statehood in the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem.

Gamal Mubarak, son of Egypt’s president and his possible heir, paid a visit to Washington. Egypt has not had a vice president since Mr. Mubarak came to power 26 years ago. That should create a nice crisis after Mubarak passes away- unless he does not plan on passing away.
Meanwhile, Ayman Nour of the opposition was recently sentenced to five years in prison by an Egyptian state court. The charges against him…...does it really matter what the charges were??

Cheers
Mohammed