Thursday, June 01, 2006

Iran's Nuclear Game: Why The Mullahs Will Not Bite

News Analysis

They say it is a triumph for Condoleeza Rice's diplomacy, to get all permanent members of the Security Council in Vienna behind a unified position toward Iran. It is.
The Ayatollahs, and Mr. Ahmadinejad, however, are not likely to be impressed with the offer, not publicly. Not enough to accept the broad terms, which are not all known, although the most important of them are known.
North Korea was encouraged in the 1990's by the bait of foreign aid, and by the delusions of one sitting US president and one former (Democratic) US president. North Korea needed the carrot, so it pretended to accept the terms. Then it cheated. What is shocking is not that it cheated: what is shocking is that some people were shocked later to find out that it had cheated.

How is Iran different?

Iran, although mismanaged by the theocracy, and beset by the corruption that plagues all major oil producers, is not in the same desperate economic situation. It is relatively rich, especially in oil that is now priced at $ 68-75 a barrel, and may well go up much higher before the end of this year. It is even richer in natural gas, which may have reached its lowest price and is poised to go up.
We must also remember the noisy clamor in Europe for lifting the economic sanctions against Saddam, who was a serial invader who had used WMD against the Iranians, the Kurds, and the Shi'as. And the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most vulnerable waterways and it is straddled by Iran.

Then there is the question of the audience for whom these people perform. Kim Jung Il performed for the Korean Peninsula. Iran's leaders perform for several audiences: The Iranian people, all Middle Eastern people, all Moslems, and the World at large- not necessarily always in that order. That makes it almost impossible for them to back down now. Having tried to show a hardline defiance toward the United States, to out-revolutionary others revolutionaries, they cannot turn tail now.

Besides, the Mullahs have two aces up their sleeves:

The major powers agree with the US at this stage of the Iran situation, but will they agree on follow-up steps? The Iranians have guessed that some of them will not.

They also perceive the United States as militarily bogged down in Iraq, and to a lesser degree Afghanistan. That it does not have the will, and perhaps the resources, for another military confrontation. I believe this is an extremely risky bet for them, for American resolve has been doubted and challenged in the past, and most of the challengers have beeen unpleasantly surprised- from the potentates of Barbay Coast to Baghdad. Still, when the time comes, if it comes, it might be very hard to make the case that the 'national interests' of the United States are directly threatened.

The road to Tehran is not nearly as open as the road to Baghdad, it is a vast rough landscape. Besides, if 150,00 troops were not enough to pacify Western Iraq, how much will be needed to pacify a country three times as large as Iraq? Clearly, both governments are bluffing to some degree in this game, but now I am not sure which one is bluffing more.

Most Middle East observers (those from the Middle East) seem to believe that an Iranian bomb is inevitable, even if the degree of advance in developing one may have been exaggerated for now. Which is unfortunate, for that country, and the Middle East, does not need nuclear weapons.

Cheers
Mohammed

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Interesting blog. I can see that you've done a lot of work on it.

Regards,
Options Trader
FX trading

Blog Directory