Saturday, June 10, 2006

Light in the Iraqi Tunnel, World Cup Sex Trade, Persian Gulf Politics

News and Analysis

In Iraq, it looks like a decisive shift is in progress now, and not only because of the death of Zarqawi or the completion of the cabinet. Hints of this shift are also being reflected in both Iraqi, Arab, and World media coverage of recent days. It has been barely perceptible at first, but I believe that it is gathering momentum. It hints at a move within Iraq farther away from the terrorists who have plagued the Western and Central regions in the past three years. Even some of the Arab media that have in the past been sympathetic to these groups seem to be edging away now, some of them seemingly dejected at the turn of events. One can read it in the slightly changed nuances of their reporting on the conflict. Is this the beginning of an irreversible shift? It is quite likely that the terror/insurgency campaign has crested and has nowhere to go but downhill. It looks like they could not manage to get their own Tet offensive underway.

Jordan is trying hard to get some credit for the success of the operation in Baghdad that killed al-Zarqawi. This seems to be part of a recent media blitz under way now by Jordan to stress its role in the war on terrorism. Unknown and unnamed Jordanian sources have been quick to try and get some credit for the demise of al-Zarqawi, by contacting major U.S. media outlets with claims that Jordanian intelligence operations were somehow crucial in the operation that finished off the terrorist chief. This is done probably partly to impress the U.S Congress- money, money, money- at this important time and partly to show that the government has now avenged the bombings in Amman. Maybe, but success has many fathers while failure is a bastard.

The World Cup final games have started in Germany. A report in the today's New York Times claims that: ‘It is estimated that more than 40,000 women and children will be imported to Germany during the month-long competition to provide commercial sex in the "mega-brothels," "quickie shacks," and other legalized venues and vast underground networks that exist in Germany’.

In Kuwait, according to a clever and perhaps politically-motivated report in al-Watan (owned by members of the ruling family), a statement by Iraq’s Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani forbidding the buying and selling of votes during elections is being widely discussed during this country's campaign for the elections at the end of June. Given the sectarian undercurrents, the local effects of this report should be mixed at best. According to the local media, voters are being offered ever more expensive presents, more cash, and even travel tickets to vote for certain candidates. Some estimates have put the price of a vote at thousands of US dollars, depending on how close the outcome looks in each district. Opposition groups and media have claimed that pro-government agents have withdrawn tens of millions of funds from the Central Bank in order to finance certain candidates and to buy votes. In recent years, opposition groups have cited rampant corruption in foreign investments, oil contracts, and exorbitant commissions extracted by local potentates for huge, and perhaps unnecessary, military purchases.

Persian Gulf stock markets had mixed results in the past week (ended Thursday). It still looks like the markets are moving within a range that is now wider than two weeks ago. There have been complaints by investors and market analysts about the difficulty of replacing the boards and the managing directors of listed companies.

The Gulf region is notorious for the longevity of its company leadership, as well as for the longevity of high public officials. Which in a perverse way makes some sense: after all, kings, emirs and potentates have no term limits either. It is common for an undersecretary to remain thirty years in office, while the normal tenure in the west, especially the United States, is probably less than four years. Some ministers in the Gulf remain in the job for their whole adult life, especially those that are restricted to members of the ruling families such as Foreign Affairs, Interior (Security), and Defense. There are ministers who have held their jobs for about forty years- I wonder how big a watch they get at retirement. These are no longer considered ministries, they are almost personal feudal fiefdoms.

Now Somalia seems poised to repeat the old Afghan experience. A new fundamentalist group have taken over the capital from the war Emirs, and are imposing strict Islamic rule. In Mogadishu, an Islamic Taliban-style fundamentalist groups that have taken over call themselves Mahakim al-Shari'a, the ‘Shari’a Courts’ regime. They have closed cinema theaters and banned World Cup soccer games. What? And not be able to see the Somali team trounce the Brazilians in the final? The good news: they only control the capital, so far.

Cheers
Mohammed

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