Hizballah, Iraq, and The Shia Issue

Middle East News Analysis

Events in Lebanon have replaced Iraq on the front pages of the Middle East. While Arab opinion seemed almost unified about the initial crisis between Hamas and Israel, it is split on the Lebanese crisis and the Hizballah issue.

However, one must remember that the two issues, Iraq and Lebanon, are connected in many Arab minds, especially those in the Persian Gulf region, because both involve a Shi'a movement which could be labeled as either ascendant, assertive or aggressive, depending on one's point of view. The sectarian Shi'a-Sunni issue is not important outside the Gulf region, and most other Arabs, e.g. in the Palestinian areas and North/East Africa look at the broader Arab or Islamic identity of the combatants more than anything else. However, issues involving Shi'as are always considered in light of some domestic status quo in the Gulf region, and the political structure of the region is fragile enough to be affected by regional shifts. The issue of the governance of Iraq, and Iran and its perceived asspirations for hegemony, are also tied in many minds to the domestic sectarian issue (remember President Mubarak's ill-advised comments on the Shia's a few weeks ago?)

The battle around Gaza is looked on as part of an overall Palestinian-Israeli struggle, and many consider that as long as that issue was unresolved then, well, perhaps anything goes on that front. Lebanon has no territorial issues with Israel, not according to the United Nations. As important, at least, is that Lebanon has had another thing going for it: it was becoming prime real estate again to some Arabs, especially Gulf Arab investors. Many have been investing heavily in Lebanon, and it was returning as one favorite vacation spot away from the puritan and dry mores of the Peninsula. They would have been quite happy to let Hizballah have free rein down south, a state within a state, as long as the investment projects, vacation homes, and night spots around Beirut were left alone. The recent violence must have produced, in addition to frustrated and frightened tourists, some disappointed and worried investors. Worst, of course, is the fact that the violence has produced many Lebanese dead and wounded, as well as massive unemployment. It most likely has shattered investor confidence for the foreseeable future.

Hizballah certainly did itself some long-term harm by crossing international borders and kidnapping the Israeli soldiers. Whatever happens now, the previous status quo along the border will be unacceptable to the major powers. This means that at some point after the dust of battle settles Hizballah may lose its military supremacy in the South in one form or another. That has always been one goal of the Israeli strategists.

On the other hand, Hizballah is an indigenous and genuinely popular Lebanese movement. Unlike the PLO of the 1980s it cannot be uprooted from its Shi'a base in southern Lebanon and Beirut. In fact, removing its militias from the south will push them closer to the capital, and that prospect makes the other Lebanese warlords quite nervous because it will threaten to undo the balance of political power that has existed since the end of the civil war. I suspect that many influential politicians would have preferred for Hizballah to remain far away in the south, so long as it did not provoke the Israelis to the serious extent that it has recently.

Still, if Secretary Rice goes to the Middle East, then the region expects some results. The Arabs on the street, and many Arabs off-the-street- i.e. those who should know better- are schizophrenic when it comes to the United States. On the one hand many think it is helplessly stuck and being bloodied in Iraq, and Afghanistan, yet on the other hand, they think it has the power to stop any war in the region. If the Secretary goes to the region soon, she will face the challenge of producing at least a cease fire. Perhaps not too soon, but at some point before returning to Washington.

As for the President's open-mike comment to Tony Yea-Blair in St Petersburg, so what, as Madeline Albright wisely said yesterday: IT happens.

Cheers
Mohammed