Al-Qaida Upstaged in Lebanon, Inter-Arab Battle for Hearts and Minds

Middle East News Analysis

It looks like the Israeli soldier held in Gaza might be released soon, according to Abu Mazen, the PA president. Now if Hizballah sees the light and releases the two soldiers it holds, perhaps this will be a first step toward a settlement for the more complicated situation in Lebanon.

Now al-Qaida is feeling left out, the limelight stolen by Hizballah in Lebanon. So, out comes al-Zawahiri with a new tape vaguely urging solidarity with 'Moslems' in Lebanon and Palestine. That could mean anything, perhaps even fighting against Hizballah. Most likely, though, it only means that the organization felt left out lately. Rush Limbough had a funny interpretation (voice-over) of the Zawahiri tape on his radio show today.

According to Aljazeera TV, several Saudi wahhabi religious figures have issued fatwas banning any kind of material and moral support for Hizballah. This was not based on the any actions of Hizballah but, as stated by some, because it is a Shi'a organization. The Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt, the largest Sunni political organization in the area, has rejected these fatwas.

Inter-Arab media war is raging over Lebanon, with Saudi-owned and Gulf states newspapers escalating their attacks against Hizballah. The most virulent anti-Hizballah press has been those from Saudi Arabia and, by extension Kuwait. There is more emphasis now on the role of Iran and hints of the ancient Persian-Arab divide. This has not been seen since 1980, when the same press was urging Saddam Hussein to start his first regional war against the Mullahs in Tehran. One right-wing Kuwaiti newspaper, Al-Siyyassah, formerly strongly pro-Saddam, and closely tied to the ruling circles, has even called Hizballah an agent of the 'Forrs', using the Baathists' favorite old term for Iranians. The name evokes strong emotions toward the ancient Persian enemy among some Persian Gulf Arabs. Emotions of the kind that the term 'Juden' evoked in a mad Germany after 1933.

What is interesting is that the longer this war goes on, the harsher the Arab media attacks on Hizballah become. The harder the Israeli task in Lebanon looks, the more virulent the attacks become. The press in Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-owned newspapers in London like al-Hayat and Asharq Alawsat, and some of the Kuwaiti press lead the way. Perhaps this is because the longest the war goes on, the more damage is done to the infrastructure of Lebanon. The other explanation is that the harder the Hizballah resistance, the more support it gets among the populations of Arab countries. People tend to forget the sectarian identity of Hizballah and its ties to the Mullahs in Iran. This comes at a time when the Arab power structure is frantically playing up the role of Iran in the whole affair, even as its own impotence in influencing events is becoming clearer by the day. Perhaps this is a natural result of legitimate worries about Iranian intentions, especially given the erratic statements of President AhmadiNejad.

Still, it looks like Hizballah will end up giving up its hold on the border area, perhaps with a potent multi-national force replacing it. Hizballah itself will remain strong, perhaps stronger than ever further north, closer to the capital Beirut. This will make the other warlords nervous, and it may not bode well for the Lebanese economy.

Cheers
Mohammed