Are Lebanon and Iraq Related? Is Arab Political Reform as Dead Now As It Was Before Iraq?

News Analysis

What Links Iraq and Lebanon:
Positions on Lebanon and Iraq are beginning to converge somewhat. It is likely that the surprising reactions of some Arab governments to events in Lebanon is a price for changes in United States policy within Iraq. There is now a noticeable shift in neo-con’s positions on Iraq, as expressed by their pundits throughout the media, with more calls for accommodating the Sunnis. This used to be the position of prominent Democrats, deemed soft enough to be mushy by the same pundits only a few months ago. Meanwhile, the pattern of Sunni terror attacks and Shi’a retaliation is escalating in Baghdad and elsewhere, quite a shift for the worse from only a few weeks ago.

Is this a prelude to a rescue operation taking over in Baghdad, with new elections to be promised under new rules? With the blessings of the regional moneybags? There are interesting possibilities.

The Iraq War and the new war in Lebanon have killed the idea of a homogenous Arab Political System, a British creation to start with. This was long overdue. The system has been exposed to be as much of a fraud as the claims of Arab rulers to be representative. Yet this has now placed most of the Arab World clearly under the umbrella of a prospective Pax Americana as much as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been since 1991, which may in fact be more efficient than the old system. The cost, however, may be paid by the new and messy Iraqi democracy.

Arab Media War:
There is a propaganda war among some Arab countries and their media outlets now. While the pro-Hizballah press claims that Saudi Arabia is supplying Israel with fuel for its warplanes (e.g Alquds Alarabi), the Saudi-owned Alarabiya TV retaliates that American materiel is being flown to Israel from rival Qatar, home of the very popular Aljazeera TV as well as the U.S. Central Command in the region.

On the other hand, tensions in Lebanon had been festering even without the recent Israeli entry into the fray, ever since the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Saudi Arabia’s main man in Beirut. His son is working diligently to replace his late father, in true Arab and Lebanese fashion. He has been visiting the Persian Gulf region, and even got an audience at the White House.

The Lebanon War:
A long-frustrated Israel is now forced into playing the sectarian inter-Arab and inter-Lebanese card for all its worth. With the exception of parts of the public infrastructure that were hit early, the brunt of the bombings are being aimed at the Shi'a districts of Southern Beirut. This seems to have general acceptance from most Arab governments, especially the Persian Gulf states with large Shi'a populations. Many rival Lebanese factions will also gratefully accept this Israeli gift that might weaken a strong rival, even as they make loud protestations.

It still looks like an air and artillery war by the IDF will not achieve what Israel and her allies in the region want, elimination of Hizballah as a military force. This is why a massive land crossing is still a good bet. Unless there are unexpected huge changes in the political situation in Syria. Perhaps this is a possibility now, given the understandable reluctance of the Israeli army to enter Lebanon in depth and for a sustained period of time. Last time it did that, it ended up retreating unconditionally, under fire from the same Hizballah. This is why I think there must be a new factor, a surprise that would alter the old equation and make it unnecessary to enter Lebanon for an extended period of occupation. Something may be in the works, and I doubt that it has anything to do with the new/old position of the Cairo-Riyadh Axis.

Cheers
Mohammed