Saturday, July 22, 2006

Al-Qaida as Israel's Ally in Lebanon? New Arab Anti-Shi'a Alignment

Middle East News Analysis

Arab Realignment:
Reactions to the Lebanon Crisis indicate how much political developments in Iraq have started a strange realignment in the Middle East. It is essentially a realignment of governments, not necessarily of peoples. President Bush's Iraq 'experimment', or blunder as many outside the United States call it, has had the surprising effect of bringing many Arab regimes and Israel together. This process itself was probably inevitable, given the futility and failures of the successive Arab wars with Israel, and the increasingly stale flavor acquired by the old official argument that Arabs cannot have democracy until after the Palestine issue is resolved. This last argument is being dusted up again and recycled now by many Arab rulers as they bide their time and await the end of the Bush presidency and the possible ascendance of a more mellow Democratic administration. There seems to be no fear on that score, for the Bush administration itself now seems to have been worn out by the political wars of attrition waged by its major Arab allies against its now seemingly-abandoned calls for democracy.

The results of the Iraq elections, and the coming to power of the Shi'a (Shiite to some of you foreign ajnabis) majority have disturbed the power structure in the Arab Middle East. For the first time in modern history Shi'as have gained control of a major Arab country, and what makes it even mor ominous as well as painful for the power structure, they have done it through free elections of the kind never seen in the Arab World. Underscoring the unease is the worry that the parties in power in Iraq have good relations with Iran. That is of course true, if only because until recently Iran was the only regional destination that welcomed exiles from the Baathist gulag, while most Arab governments and their media at the time were hailing Saddam as the new Saladin- ironically, the original Saladin himself was a Kurd.

Which brings us to the current situation in Lebanon. Hizballah's blunder- it seems like a blunder as of this moment, unless Israel commits an even bigger blunder, something that it has done in Lebanon in the past- has given the Arab governments the excuse, the casus belli, if you will, they had been waiting for for the past year or two. It has divided the Arabs into two camps again, just like Saddam's invasion of Kuwait did in 1990/91. At that time the leaders were divided, with some supporting Saddam's position (such as Jordan, PLO, Yemen, Sudan, Algeria, Tunis) and the rest against it. This time most major Arab leaders are aligned against Hizballah and tacitly on the side of Israel. There is the probability of a rift appearing between some Arab populations and their governments, especially if the war continues beyond next week. And especially if Israel undertakes what look inevitable now, another land invasion of Lebanon.

The Saudi press, and the press in the Persian Gulf region, have gradually and gleefully escalated their criticism of Hizballah, and the organization is quite openly and almost exclusively blamed these days in these newspapers and in Saudi-owned satellite television stations and Saudi papers published in London like alHayat and Asharq Alawsat.

Where is Usama?
Conspicuously absent and silent is al-Qaeda, which clearly cannot bring itself to side with Hizballah, because it is a Shi'a organization. Tacitly and hopefully, al-Qaida is waiting for Israel to annihilate Hizballah. The hope is that al-Qaida can then step in to fill the void, especially among Lebanon's Sunni minority. In this, al-Qaida is on the same side as the governments of the Arab countries that are still its chief sources of finance and men. For once, it also has the same goal as these governments and Israel. Very interesting.

Funny Remark of the Week:
The Saudi Foreign Minister , Prince Saud al-Faisal, may have made an uncharacteristic faux pas when he recently criticized foreign interfernce and influences in Arab affairs. Do you suppose he meant all foreign influences and interference in all Arab countries?

Cheers
Mohammd

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