Iran is getting more confusing by the day. It has never been easy to figure out the power structure in Tehran, mainly because there is no one power center- there are several. Now the dormant reformists are stirring again, perhaps because elections are near, the economy is stagnant, and the dangers of war are closer. The Iranian reformists are not particularly liked by the fading neocons in Washington: Bush included in his infamous 2002 axis of evil sound-bite a reformist-led Iran that had just helped the US in Afghanistan.

Oddly, the Bush administration, which detests Ahmadinejad, may be giving him a new lifeline. Each statement about Iran by the President or Darth Vader pushes petroleum prices higher, giving the regime a safety net- more money to appease the voters for the next year, just in time for the Iranian elections. (It has also pushed Halliburton share prices up to over $40 in recent weeks, but I am sure that is irrelevant). The Bush administration may be giving the Ahmadinejad administration a new lease on life, a chance to get re-elected, even as Bush leaves office in 2009.

Two weeks ago Hillary Clinton went against her natural instinct, against her obvious beliefs, against all that her generous donors stand for, and she did it again (she hasn't said ooops yet, but that may come after the bombs drop and the missiles fire across the Persian Gulf)!

Hillary wanted to look macho short of growing a moustache, so she showed up at the Capitol in figurative drag (can one say that women dress in drag? Je ne sais pas! I know that Rudy Guiliani did it, literally, at least once, and I am sure it'll make great campaign ad footage come Fall 2008). She voted to give the Bush administration what it wanted, a crack in the door that can be pushed open onto a new war in the Middle East, this time against Iran.
The Democrats, who almost universally detest the war in Iraq, have largely chosen to ignore the vote. They can almost taste victory in '08, and apparently they think she is their last best white hope. (Secretly, many Democrats I know like Obama much better, but do not think he can win. It is the fear factor Michlle Obama talked about).

The Dems record with electability has not been good. In 2002 their hearts were with Bill Bradley, but they chose Al Gore because of the electability issue (he almost lost to Bush). In 2004, their hearts were surely with Howard Dean, but their votes went for Kerry, because he was considered electable. Will Hillary's electability illusion make it three strikes for the Dems?
Cheers
Mohammed