Friday, October 19, 2007

What Did Israel Bomb?
Everyone agrees that someone, most likely Israel, bombed something somewhere deep inside Syria a couple of weeks ago. That is the only point of agreement.

Let's analyze the known facts and offered theories:
The Israelis refuse to discuss the reported bombing, something quite different from their usual attitude which depends to some extent on deterrence. Why?:
It is possible that they bombed the worng target.
It is also possible that they do not know, are not sure, what they have bombed.
Only Syria knows for sure what they have bombed, and they ain't talking.
The United States most likely knows something about it, perhaps whatever Israel knows. But that may not be that much.

So, Israel is not talking because they are not sure what they have bombed. It is unlikely that they are protecting some human asset on the ground, but it is possible.
The Syrian regime is not talking, except to acknowledge that something was bombed, because the Syrians are not that stupid and they want the Israelis and the United States to keep guessing. Why give them valuable intelligence for free?

So, both sides are playing chicken, but it is highly unlikely that Syria was working on nuclear weapons. Even Assad's advisers are not stupid enough to think that they can hide a nuclear program right in Israel's backyard, right within view of the US Sixth Fleet. And where the hell would they get the money from? The US media went too far in its paranoia, hyping up the 'nukular' angle in this episode. Or maybe it was fooled once agian.
It is not likely that this was merely a message to Iran: beating on the bully's little buddy never deters the bully- it merely shows that you fear him.

And if Israel is refusing to confirm 'what' it has bombed, how does the UN Security Council justify this unexplained raid deep into another country? What if Syrian planes bombed inside Israel (this is highly unlikely given the quality of Syrian C & C, planes and pilots)? How can a raid be justified if it is unexplained? This is definitely against the 'cogito, ergo sum' philosophy.
So, the plot thickens. More on this later, after I meditate some more.

Hill & Bill:
Hillary Clinton looks headed for the Democratic nomination, unless Iowa pulls a surprise during the caucus in January. It is possible. Her likely running mate? Well, her pillowmate, Bill Clinton. That would be the Republican's worst nightmare come true. With the Democratic majority in the House and Senate almost certain to increase, with a Democrat president, and then Clinton roaming the halls of th White House at will- and attending cabinet meetings. SNL will get a new lease on life, for the next eight years.
Cheers
Mohammed

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