Naguib Mahfouz, Iran Throws a Soft Gauntlet, and Did Israel Actually Win?

Middle East Comment and Analysis

Naguib Mahfouz:
The last literary giant of the Arab World died today in Cairo. I grew up seeing, smelling, and living the real Cairo through his magical pen. He had a way of taking you through the great city, making you live its hopes, its sins, and its disappointments. Nobody could do it better.

Ahmadinejad's Soft Gauntlet:
The President of Iran challenged President Bush to a televised debate about 'current international affairs' (Aljazeera TV). A good one, an original, although it reminds me of Colonel Qadhafi in his younger wilder days, before he started to resemble all the other old Arab despots and got to be almost as boring. I bet the Dear Leader Kim Jong Il is skulking over his kimche somewhere in his dungeon, wanting to kick his own not insubstantial derriere for not coming up with that one first. After all, this type of stuff is right up his Dear alley.
Ahmadinejd also said that he does not expect the UN Security Council to take action against his country. Maybe he is good at counting votes, but he did not say that nobody will take action against his country.

Th GCC Dilemma:
Iran's potential confrontation with the US has already created a dilemma for the Gulf Cooperation Council. The closest US supply, and command & control centers are right across the Gulf, a bare few hundred kilometers southwest from Tehran, as the crow flies. Only a fool can deny that the external security of the smaller GCC countries depends on American muscle, and not on any goodwill from Iran or the other larger Arab countries. They all remember that Iran was only passively critical of Saddam's invasion of Kuwait, while Jordan sided with the invader. The other Arab members of the Desert Storm coalition had to have their spines stiffened and coaxed into doing what was right by the United States. If a confrontation comes, at least two of these GCC countries will have no real choice but to allow the use of the American facilities on their territory. Most people in the region, especially in Kuwait, know that without US intervention in 1990-91, Saddam Hussein would be ruler of the Gulf, and perhaps the actual Custodian of the Two Holy Shrines, today.

All this talk of war is probably academic, because it is highly unlikely that there will be any military action against Iran, certainly nothing beyond a massive one-time raid which may in the end prove futile.

Speaking of Lebanon and Israel:
It is possible that, for all Hezbollah's tenacity, Israel may have achieved one of her goals after all. With 15,000 international forces now almost certain to be deployed, the northern border will be pacified. As long as the international, or is it multi-national, forces remain. That leaves only the Gaza sector questionable, for now. Hamas will likely lose power, with most of her former Persian Gulf bankrollers angry at her acceptance of Iranian money (but not European money). Perhaps Ehud Olmert and Amir Peretz are smarter than they look.

This will still leave Hezbollah the strongest military force in Lebanon. What is more important, it will still leave the Party of God as the largest, most efficient and least corrupt charity organization in Lebanon and the Arab World.

What about Syria?
Where will that leave Syria? Perhaps closer to Tehran, perhaps closer to some internal change. The Syrian case is like a vicious circle: as long as the Golan Heights are occupied it will remain defiant, and as long as it remains defiant the Golan will remian occupied. The Baath older old guard is agitating from Paris and other foreign cities, hoping somehow to overthrow the old guard around President Assad.


Cheers
Mohammed