The Post-Lebanon Arab Cold War

Middle East News Analysis

A cease fire is now in effect in Lebanon, the guns are silent. Not so the inter-Arab proxy war of words and media. The Arab World is now split into two camps, and not necessarily by clear geographic borders. One camp is strongly suspected by many Arabs, perhaps by most Arabs, of having prior knowledge of the Israeli onslaught, that they were promised a quick wiping out of Hizballah, that this was the price for their acqueiscence and their early statements against Hizballah. This suspect camp is led by the Riyadh-Cairo axis, with Jordan tagging along as a minor partner, and most Gulf states following the Saudi leader- with the exception of independent-minded Qatar and the UAE.

This latter camp has ratcheted up its attacks on Hizballah and its supporters in recent days, since the ceasefire came into effect. These attacks in the media seem to be coordinated and would not happen without official sanction, not in Saudi Arabia or the Persian Gulf states. The Saudi-owned Arab media based in Europe, like Alhayat and Asharq Alawsat newspapers, and Alarabiya TV, have been leading the attack. Much of the domestic Saudi and Kuwaiti press have followed the same line.

While one camp is celebrating its 'victory' over Israel, the other camp tries to dampen the effect by downplaying the military achievement and emphasizing the undeniably high costs of the war for Lebanon.

On the international level, there seems to be a consensus, for the time being, that Hizballah came out in better shape, definitely Hassan Nassrallah came out better off than Ehud Olmert and Amir Peretz. Only President Bush and Mr. Olmert himself profess otherwise. Still, Israel may get the Party of God away from the border area and provide some peace for its Northern settlements. It is too early to estimate the cost to Hizballah, to Lebanon, and the political costs to various Arab regimes.

The problem for the message of the anti-Hizballah camp is that many, perhaps most, Arabs on the street see it as subservient to United States and Israeli interests. Hence, the continuous attempts to paint Hizballah as subservient to Iranian interests. The problem with this last argument is that it could work only in the Persian Gulf states, where strong suspicions exist toward Iran and its regional intentions, and where Sunni-Shi'a sectarian tensions have increased in recent years. It does not seem to have much traction among most Arabs, not yet.

So, the Arab peoples are now caught between repressive revolutionary regimes, and repressive, often corrupt, traditional conservative regimes. Not much of a choice there, not on the eve of the birth of the New Middle East.

Cheers
Mohammed