Same Old in Iraq, Rewriting the Lebanon War, Kuwait Opts for Booze

News and Analysis

Iraq- Financing the War:
Some small and tentative signs of progress in Iraq: a meeting this week among the various major tribal leaders/elders (Shia' and Sunni) has been making positive noises about cooperation and reconciliation. About 600 attended this conference and they have signed a covenant against shedding blood. But I wouldn't hold my breath. The latest Kurdish plan shows Kirkuk as part of Kurdistan, a very touchy subject for other Iraqis. The Sunni insurgents already claim that Israeli intelligence is all over the Kurdish Region.

Mr Abdulaziz Al-Hakeem (from the dominant SCIRI party) again called for an autonomous Southern region within an Iraqi federation. He seems to be gaining support for the idea in Washington as well- Democratic Presidential candidate Senator Joe Biden last week reiterated his own suppport for a federation of three autunomous regions in Iraq.

Meanwhile, some newspaper in Kuwait has claimed this week that the US is planning a coup to overthrow the elected government of Mr. Al-Malki and install Mr. Iyad Allawi as leader, with a former Saddam-era General as military supremo. Mr. Allawi is probably the only Shi'a whom the rulers of the Gulf states welcome as leader of Iraq, but unfortunately the Gulf state rulers do not vote in Iraq's elections. The newspaper, usually not reliable, did not explain what the plans are for the elected parliament, or for the well-armed militias. Clearly this is a case of wishful thinking, since some of these newspapers nowadays seem to be infested with former Iraqi Baathists along with Baathist political jargon, in addition to the usual home-grown Salafi jihadists. Who was it said that there is no such thing as permanent enemies in politics? Was it Napoleon or some old Mayor of Chicago? Or was it Mitternich?
(Actually a couple of months ago I mentioned in this blog reports of a possible coup in Baghdad, but I was doubtful about the reports, and have since discounted them. Nobody can be THAT stupid about Iraq, not with the whole country armed to the teeth and some of the militias chomping at the bit to start something.)

In some US media, there is now an emerging but still shy debate about the evidence, or lack of such, of direct Iranian involvement in Iraq (www.Time.com, August 25). Even if the clerics in Tehran are financing some of the Shi'a militias, a good probability, this does not explain the source of the huge amounts of money needed to finance the intensive Sunni Salafi campaign of bombings and killings of both Iraqis and US soldiers. The amounts must be in the hundreds of millions of dollars per year. The money must come from Sunni sources, and the oil-producing Persian Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, are the most likely sources. The funds are unlikely to come from these governments directly, but from private sources, perhaps with some officials looking the other way.

The Spin on Lebanon:
The war of words, the spin as it is called in the USA, is intensifying about the Lebanon War. The Arab cold war over who won Lebanon continues. Although Hezbollah's performance has shocked the Israeli defense and political establishment, the jury is still out on the final consequences of the war. It looks like the Party of God will be replaced with Lebanese and Multinational forces on the border. This may provide the Israelis the assurances they need for the safety of their northern towns. It may provide Mr. Olmert with the cover he needs to face his critics on the right. But I would not bet on disarming Hezbollah any time soon. Most likely the arms will find their way into Lebanon.

Realizing suddenly that Hassan Nassrallah is the most popular man on the Arab street, according to polls, the government-controlled media of some Arab states have intensified their attempts to change that. Saudi and Kuwaiti newspapers especially have pulled all stops in order to do just that. Now the stalemate in the war is being called in these papers, on a daily basis, an outright defeat for Hezballah. So far the campaign does not seem to be working on the street. After all, when the dust settles, it is more likely that Mr. Ehud Olmert will lose his job than Mr. Nassrallah over the war. Bibi Netanyahu is eagerly waiting in the wings like an Israeli Pheonix.

Kuwait and Booze:
Reports say the government of Kuwait is to hire Booze, Allen & Hamilton to do yet another study on restructuring the economy and making it more efficient. The problem with Kuwait, and other Gulf countries, is not in the shortage of studies and proposals by international consultants. Kuwait has always been plagued with a failure of the government, that is, a failure of the overall management team, especially the economic team, at both the planning and execution stages. The economy has been dismally unable to play catch-up with successful regional business centers like the United Arab Emirates, or even little Qatar. In fact it has been falling farther behind these places. And to add insult to injury this year, for example, the country has been plagued with continuous water and power failures in the middle of the summer heat (think 130 fahrenheit), something that does not seem to happen in the UAE or Qatar or Oman.

Someone whispered to me recently that what they need in Kuwait is simple, and anything short of that may not work: abolish the cabinet (Council of Ministers), fire the top bureaucrats from among the scions of the oligarchy from their entitlement jobs, pack them to their London mansions, and contract the operation of the whole country to a consortium of foreign managers (not necessarily including Halliburton). That may not lead to an optimal situation (does anything?), but it sure will improve things quickly. I think he/she was only half-joking.

Cheers
Mohammed