Monday, August 28, 2006

Whose New Middle East?

Or, Why Arabs Should Stop Worrying and Love their Despots?

Comment and Analysis

Preamble:
A high official of the ruling party in Egypt, Mr Hussam Badran, said yesterday that Gamal Mubarak, the president's son, is one possible candidate to succeed his father in offfice. This contradicts what the President promised during an interview in the Saudi-owned al-arabiya TV, last spring that his son will not succeed him. President Mubarak, who has been in office for 25 years, is at least 78 years old. Remember: Mr. Ayman Nour, the first and only person to run for president against Mubarak, has been in prison for some time. With pressure from Washington for reform now all but lifted, Mr. Nour may remain in prison until he is broken, or until Gamal Mubarak is safely sworn in as president, whichever comes first.

This conforms with an interesting trend in Arab politics: 'hereditary republics'. Assad of Syria handed power to his son, Saddam was planning on handing power to son Qusay, or was it Uday? and Qadhafi of Libya is probably toying with appointing his son Saif al-Islam to succeed him. It is possible now that other leaders will start pushing their sons toward the limelight and allow them to gain experience in running the....family business.
Even in semi-Frenchified Lebanon, parties and their militias are handed down from father to son- sacre bleu!. It looks increasingly that Arab rulers and potentates of all stripes and persuasions now tend to do what Arab rulers have been doing for a few thousand years- keep power in the family, stupid.

The Three New Middle Easts:
Secretary Rice among others, some higher up but most lower down, have called it the New Middle East. This seems to have come to rest now solely on the basis of stability, i.e the status quo ante-Iraq. And perhaps, keep your digits crossed eventually, as Manuel used to repeat, leading to increased democratization in the region. But that golden age also gave us al-Qaida, or did it? Of course, once the Israel-Palestinian issue is settled Arab rulers will have no excuse to keep their peoples...under guardianship. Unless a new beast replaces Israel over the horizon. Which brings us to the next paragraph.
President Ahmadinejad of Iran now also calls it the New Middle East (notice the italics in his case?). Except that his vision is based on rejection of Western influence and ejection of Western (read American) forces. Oh, and perhaps the ejection of Israel as well. It also probably aspires toward a Wilayat-e-Faqih type of Islamic regime, something that most Sunnis and many Shi'as do not understand, but should not be afraid to ask about.

So are we then facing two competing visions of the New Middle East? No, we are not facing only two visions- it turns out there is more.

There is now a third New Middle East. This is the vision, if we can call it that, of most current Arab rulers. It can be summarized like this: Why rock the boat? In Americanese: if it ain't broke, why try to fix it?
With the agonizing months in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 subsiding, and with the euphoria of the easy fall of Baghdad fading, this last vision is now being pushed aggressively, and is finally beginning to have some traction in Washington. It is being pushed mostly by Arab rulers and their controlled media, and their friends in the Western capitals (ok, read Washington). The stick being held over our heads is the new super-enemy, the clerical regime in Iran. Moscow at the foot of Elborz mountains, with its new crescent of evil replacing the hammer and sickle.

So why do I call it a new Middle East if it is an old one? Because it comes in a new package (is it the packaging, stupid?). It relies on clever ways, some of them quite innovative, to show a veneer of democratization covering one-party dictatorships and traditional tribal monarchies. So, if some misguided souls in the American media and in the US Congress see a connection between the twin evils of oppression and corruption and the rise of unsavory and violent groups like al-Qaida, Hamas, Hezballah, and the Iraqi militias and homicide bombers, then, why, we will show them some democracy. Enough to assuage their inexplicable and annoying hunger for spreading their values and their way of life.
If the Arab World has taught us anything at all in recent years, it is that you can have your cake and eat it too. You can have a democracy, and a one-man dictatorship (Egypt), and a tribal monarchy (the Persian Gulf) all at the same time.

Now, which New Middle East will win? I would bet on the last one, the latter. With the clashing visions of Washington and Tehran bloodying each other on the battlefield of Arab opinion, and perhaps across the Persian Plateau, who will pick up the pieces but the Old New Middle East of the Kings, Emirs, and benevolent dictators?
For the Arab political system, which had a scare after the Iraqi elections and all the talk of democracy, the actual walk from the West has been quite different. Happy days are here again.

Cheers
Mohammed

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